Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA):

Model Description and Applications

Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA):

Model Description and Applications

Bruce Junkins, Suren Kulshreshtha & Marie Boehm

Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum

Sheperdstown, WV, October 2, 2001

Develop a model to assess impacts of mitigation strategies on GHG emissions from the agriculture and agri-food sector economic indicators

Estimate 1990 GHG emission levels

Forecast 2010 GHG emission levels based on business as usual scenario

Estimate impact of selected options on GHG emission levels and economic indicators for the sector

ObjectivesObjectives

Based on an existing policy analysis model (Canadian Regional Agricultural Model - CRAM)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions module links levels of agricultural activities to emission coefficients

Integrated model (Canadian Economic Emissions Model for Agriculture - CEEMA) incorporates science with policy analysis

CEEMA goes beyond primary agriculture and IPCC accounting to include forward and backward linkages (farm inputs, off-farm transportation, food processing)

Modeling FrameworkModeling Framework

Land BaseLand Base

Cultivated LandCultivated LandUncultivated

Land

Uncultivated Land

Non-land resources

Non-land resources

Economic Optimization Model(Canadian Regional Agricultural Model)

Economic Optimization Model(Canadian Regional Agricultural Model)

Technology of Production

Technology of Production

Product and Input Markets

Product and Input Markets

Level of Crop and Livestock Productio

n

Level of Crop and Livestock Productio

n

Farm Input

Demand

Farm Input

Demand

Shipments and Trade

Shipments and Trade

Greenhouse Gas Emissions ModelGreenhouse Gas Emissions ModelScience of

Greenhouse Gas Emissions:

Estimation of coefficients

Science of Greenhouse

Gas Emissions:Estimation of coefficients

Producer and Consumer

Surplus

Producer and Consumer

Surplus

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Agriculture and Agri-Food Sector

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Agriculture and Agri-Food Sector

Schematic of the Components of CEEMA Schematic of the Components of CEEMA

Policy Model – CRAMPolicy Model – CRAM

Static, non-linear optimization model

Maximizes producer + consumer surplus

Integrates all sectors of primary agriculture

Regional supply/demand

Inter-provincial and international trade

Government policies/subsidies

Transportation and handling

Land is the only resource constraint

Crop supply response determined by relative profitability of alternative crops

Regional Coverage 29 crop production regions

22 in the Prairie region 1 each in other provinces

Provincial level for livestock, dairy and poultry

Land types Cropland Hayland Improved Pasture Unimproved Land

CRAMCRAM

Crop Production Regions in CRAMCrop Production Regions in CRAM

AlbertaSaskatchewan

Manitoba

WestWheat (4 grades)Durum WheatFeed BarleyMalting barleyCanolaFlaxOatsLentilsField peasPotatoesHayPastureOther crops

EastWheatSoybeansFeed barleyCorn grainCorn silagePotatoesHayPastureOther crops

Fallow/Stubble Split (West)WheatDurumCanolaLentils

Tillage Practices(West)IntensiveModerateNo-till

CRAM - Field CropsCRAM - Field Crops

Cattle basic herdCows

Heifers

Calves

Bulls

Cattle feedlot operationsSteers

Heifers

HogsSows

Growers

DairyCows

Heifers

Calves

Fluid milk

Industrial milk

PoultryChickens

Layers

Turkeys

CRAM - LivestockCRAM - Livestock

CRAM - Economic CoverageCRAM - Economic Coverage

CropsArea planted

Production costs (variable)

Yields

Prices

Trade

Food demand

Feed demand

LivestockAnimal numbers

Production costs (variable)

Yields

Prices

Trade: - live animals- meat

Meat consumption

OtherGovernment payments

Consumer and producer surplus

Transportation costs

Handling costs

100 year Global Warming Equivalent estimates of CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions

Emission coefficients based on latest scientific information biophysical models (CENTURY) expert opinion (AAFC Research Branch, IPCC and

Environment Canada) Disaggregate approach - emissions of each GHG are

estimated for each region, crop and livestock production activities, and source of GHG emissions

Estimated emissions = emissions coefficient * production activity level

Flexibility in method of summation (e.g. total agriculture and agri-food sector vs. IPCC/Inventory methodology)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions ModuleGreenhouse Gas Emissions Module

CEEMA Accounting of the Agriculture and Agri-Food SectorCEEMA Accounting of the Agriculture and Agri-Food Sector

Activity IPCC Agr. IPCC — EnergyIPCC

Land UseChanges

Energy UseTrans-

portationManu-

facturing Sinks

Farm — Direct Production Emissions — Crops

Crop Residues N2O

Fertilizer Use N2O

Fuel Use CO2 CH4 N2O

Manure Application N2O CH4

Nitrogen Fixing Crops N2O

Soil Organic Matter CO2 CO2

Farm — Direct Production Emissions — Livestock

Animals CH4

Stationary Combustion CO2 CH4 N2O

Manure Handling N2O CH4

Activity IPCC Agr. IPCC — EnergyIPCC

Land UseChanges

Energy UseTrans-

portationManu-

facturing Sinks

Other Sub-Sectors

Indirect Emissions N2O

Transportation/Storage CO2 CH4 N2O

Food Processing CO2 CH4 N2O

Prod. Related Services CO2 CH4 N2O

Farm Inputs CO2 CH4 N2O

Other AgroecosystemComponents

N2O CO2 CH4 CO2

CEEMA Accounting of the Agricultureand Agri-Food Sector (cont’d)CEEMA Accounting of the Agricultureand Agri-Food Sector (cont’d)

Source 1990 2010 Diff. (%)

Soil Organic Matter (source) 6.0 0.6 -5.4 (-90%)

Crop Production (excl. SOM) 16.1 22.6 6.5 (40%)

Livestock Production 34.3 40.5 6.2 (18%)

Other 1.2 1.3 0.1 (8.3%)

IPCC/Inventory 57.6 65.0 7.4 (13%)

Soil Organic Matter (sink) -0.01 -5.8 -5.8

On-Farm Fuel Use 8.1 8.1 0.0 (0.4%)

Total Primary Agriculture 65.7 67.3 1.6 (2.4%)

Farm Inputs, Off-Farm Transportationand Food Processing

24.8 30.7 5.9 (24%)

Total Agriculture/Agri-Food 90.5 98.0 7.5 (8.3%)

(million tonnes CO2 equivalents)

GHG Emissions from AgricultureGHG Emissions from Agriculture

Soil nutrient management Better matching of N to crop requirements

Soil Management* Increase use of no-till Decrease use of summerfallow Increase use of permanent cover

Grazing Management* Decrease cattle stocking rates + complimentary grazing

+ rotational grazing

Change Animal Diets Reduce protein intake, additives (hogs. poultry, dairy)

Agroforestry Shelterbelts

* Soil Sinks

Agriculture and Agri-Food Table Options ReportAgriculture and Agri-Food Table Options Report

Percent Change in CO2-Eq EmissionsRelative to 2010 Baseline (CENTURY)Percent Change in CO2-Eq EmissionsRelative to 2010 Baseline (CENTURY)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

IPCC Agriculture Total Primary Agriculture

2010Target

Nut. Mgt.

Summerfallow Grazing Shelterbelts

No-Till PCP AnimalDiets

TotalReductions

% change

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

IPCC Agriculture Total Primary Agriculture

TotalReductions

% change

Percent Change in CO2-Eq EmissionsRelative to 2010 Baseline (Expert Opinion)Percent Change in CO2-Eq EmissionsRelative to 2010 Baseline (Expert Opinion)

2010Target

Nut. Mgt.

Summerfallow Grazing Shelterbelts

No-TillPCP Animal

Diets

Estimate scale of sink potential for 1st commitment period Land based accounting Improvements to Table analysis Low, medium and high adoption rates of BMP related to change

in soil carbon Cropland management

frequency of no-till frequency of summerfallow

Grazing land management conversion of cropland to permanent cover intensity of pasture and grazing land management

Shelterbelts

Canadian Submission to the UNFCC (proposals related to Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3)Canadian Submission to the UNFCC (proposals related to Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3)

-30-20-10

01020304050

60

CO2 CH4 N2O Net

1990 2010 Low 2010 Medium 2010 High

Tg CO2 Eq.

Estimated Total Agricultural Emissions and Sinks in 1990 and 2010Estimated Total Agricultural Emissions and Sinks in 1990 and 2010

Tg CO2-Eq.Increased carbon sequestration on grazing land.

Decreased N2O emissions from fertilizer due to less land under annual crops.

Increased CH4 and N2O emissions due to expanded livestock herd.

Net emission reductions of 0.6 million tonnes per year.

If no livestock increase, then could be an additional 1 Mt reduction.

Example: Estimated Impacts of 1 m ha Permanent Cover and Cattle Increase on GHG Emissions (2010)

Importance of Net GHG AccountingImportance of Net GHG Accounting

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

CO2 CH4 N2O Net

Cropland Grazing & Livestock Total

Impacts of agriculture on GHG emissions go beyond the primary sector

Importance of soil sinks

GHG reduction targets may be achievable through a series of actions based on existing technology

Trade-off between GHG reduction and increased agricultural production (especially livestock)

Measures to promote adoption of mitigation practices

Uncertainty of GHG coefficients

Environmental co-benefits

Key MessagesKey Messages

Collaboration with broad research community

Analyze additional mitigation scenarios as input to National Business Plan

Targeted Measures and Domestic Emissions Trading Working Groups

Improve economic component of CEEMA (better regional disaggregation and farm level production data)

Incorporate price of carbon for analysis of emissions trading options

Improve GHG coefficients based on scientific research reflective of Canadian conditions

Improve links to agri-food sector and transportation of bulk commodities

Analysis of non-food markets (biofuels, strawboard)

Investigate the dynamics of climate change, potential impacts and possible adaptation

Future ActivitiesFuture Activities