canadian manufacturing - analysis including trends and assessment of government policies)
TRANSCRIPT
Canada Manufacturing Analysis (Sales, Exports
and Government Policies)By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA
Automotive Sector
Automotive Production
Canada Automotive
Canada Automotive
Impact of Production change
Canada Auto Sales
Canada Auto Sales
Scotia Bank
Automotive
International Trade
Canada Exports and Imports
Canada Trade
Exports – EDC Comments
Canada Exports
Canada Exports
Trade Comments
Comments Trade/May 2015
Comments Trade/May 2015
Comments Trade/May 2015
Comments Trade/May 2015
Stats Canada – Trade Comments
Trade / Canada
Manufacturing Trends
Canadian Manufacturing Sales
Canadian Manufacturing
Canada MFG Sales
Forestry Industry
Canadian Manufacturing Analysis
Canadian Manufacturing Sales
Canadian Manufacturing Sales
Canadian Manufacturing Sales
Canadian Manufacturing Sales
US MFG
PMI Index
PMI Index
Robotics
Competitiveness
Competitiveness
Freight Index
Freight Index
Freight Index
Trailer Sales
AG Equipment
Canada Equipment Tax Policy
Electricity Power
Electricity Power
Metal Processing Center
Commodity Prices
Commodity Prices
Commodity Prices
Commodity Index
Commodity Index
Commodity Index
Commodity Index
Mining Issues
Mining Issues
Iron Ore
Lithium
Copper
Aluminum Wiring
Oil Rig Count
Oil Refineries
Oil Refineries
Oil Outlook
Oil Outlook
Crude Oil
Crude Oil
Canada Oil
Oil - China
Machine Tool Orders
US Machine Tools
Robotic Trends
Class 8 Truck Sales
Truck Sales
Steel Analysis
Steel Analysis
Steel Industry
Steel Industry
Stelco - Demise
Stelco - Demise
Green Technology
Cleantech Index
Cleantech Index
Asia / Green Tech
US Green Investment
Canada GDP – May 2015
Employment
Labor Analysis - Canada
• Employment – All I see from your comments is opinion and no facts. It seems you call me a troll, right? The only reason people call me a troll is they cannot defend their opinion with facts, right? Let me crunch a few things based on the below links – • Since 2010 there has been 722K full-time jobs and 118K part-time jobs
created in Canada. So, 86% of the new jobs are full-time. So, where is the 80% number you quoting coming from in terms of its accuracy?• The main sector of growth are the following sectors
• Accommodation/food services approximately 98K• Healthcare approximately 249K – this ties to more money being spent on healthcare by
provinces to support need for additional services • Professional jobs approximately 170K• Construction approximately 220K – does this not benefit skill trades and tied to the
housing market being solid in Canada
Labor Analysis - Canada
• Summary: • The bulk of jobs are in areas that pay good salaries.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/labor93a-eng.htm. The only sector that would see the bulk of minimum wage would be accommodation/services.
• Food/Services jobs are created due to people spending money on meals and entertainment and travel - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/trad15a-eng.htm or https://www.restaurantscanada.org/Portals/0/Non-Member/2015/restaurantoutlooksurvey_2015_q1.pdf• Source:
http://www.conferenceboard.ca/economics/hot_eco_topics/default/13-11-05/which_industries_are_creating_jobs.aspx
• http://www.conferenceboard.ca/economics/hot_eco_topics/default/13-11-05/which_industries_are_creating_jobs.aspx
• http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ10-eng.htm
Wages / Canada
Small Business
Small Business
Small Business
Small Business
Government Policies
Foresty Sector
• www.parl.gc.ca/Content/HOC/Committee/412/RNNR/Reports/RP8046840/412_RNNR_Rpt13_PDF/412_RNNR_Rpt13-e.pdf
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Manufacturing Policies
Manufacturing organization / Medium
Manufacturing organization / Medium• Mulcair’s comment –
• Medium and Large companies would not qualified for the tax cuts and in fact would see their taxes increased.
Manufacturing organization / Medium• Mulcair’s comment –
• Medium are those entities that are $10M and up to $50M. The average medium sales value is $34M. This market segment would be ignored by Mulcair – “Over one third (37%) of mid sized firms’ head offices are in Ontario, followed by 27% in Quebec, 19% in the Prairies, 12% in ‑British Columbia and 6% in the Atlantic region. The top five sector in which they are active include: manufacturing (18%); retail (16%); business services (14%); accommodation and food services (13%); and construction (8%)
Manufacturing organization / Medium• Mulcair’s comment –
• Mulcair seems to be spinning his wheels as factors that drive business investment are controlled by the provinces, i.e. Hydro Rates, Regulations, new taxes (ORPP, Carbon Pricing, etc.). So, how is mulcair going to deal with local issues facing business? It seems Mulcair did not read the OCC report on hydro rates -
Manufacturing – NDP Comments• NDP Supporter, Here is simple question for you "Defend Mulcair's policies to where the private sector supports the hiking of taxes". It is
simple request that to this date has not been defended with any valid links from the Chamber of Commerce or CFIB or CAPP or CME or other trade/business association. It seems to me that Mulcair is the one that is inconsistent with his comments. Right? Mulcair tells unions he hates corporate welfare, right? http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-targets-freeloader-corporations-in-speech-to-teamsters-1.2774959.
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• Mulcair then tells he supports manufacturing, right? http://www.ndp.ca/news/mulcair-champions-manufacturing-cambridge. Mulcair claims small business create the manufacturing jobs, right? Yet the facts show only about 1/3 of manufacturers are small business, right? NDP approach is too narrow as you support hiking corporate tax up to 22% for medium to large corporation and reducing small business tax by 2% over two years. Where is your analysis to support this will help small business - https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/061.nsf/vwapj/KSBS-PSRPE_July-Juillet2012_eng.pdf/$FILE/KSBS-PSRPE_July-Juillet2012_eng.pdf?
Manufacturing – NDP Comments• Jason Myers who is CEO for CME has said Harper’s policies continue to support manufacturing, but no comment on what Mulcair would
keep in terms of Harper’s policies, right? http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=X4NX7-CPP8J-8EJNG. FYI – There are already programs that provide seed money that are similar to innovation credit, but Mulcair appears on surface that he will rebrand those policies as NDP.
• Green Technology - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-policy-analysis-green-technology-canadaa
• Government Programs - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada
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• Jason Myers (CME) and others have called out Mulcair for his inconsistency with corporate tax http://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=HRH7K-9UE34-ACUS8 or http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/ndp-leader-mulcairs-corporate-tax-policy-needs-clarity-150026/. So, are these comments lies and if so then defend why these comments are lies. All I have seen is people say “Mulcair will look at average rates with OECD”, but little else in statement. The fact is Canada ranking overall for taxation is 23 within OECD, but Mulcair never mention this ranking, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/corporation-taxation-canada-44675640
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Manufacturing – NDP Comments• I have worked for many years with all aspect of business including manufacturing as such have a good understanding of the issues facing
business. Business will tell Mulcair the world is very competitive and what they do not want from a government is more taxes, red tape, higher hydro rates, etc. Business will also tell you their main issues are input costs, access to capital, productivity, access to markets, and quality workers. There is very little in Mulcair’s statements that support any of those areas, especially productivity since that would mean working with union on automation and/or improvements with manufacturing process to help streamline production processes. BTW: When has union work with a business to automate the business as a way to help it compete? Unifor seems to support ORPP, but says little how the cost burden would hurt the small business owner with a tax increase - http://www.unifor.org/en/whats-new/press-room/ontario-push-broad-orpp CFIB has said ORPP will hurt small business - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5860-provincial-pension-plan-an-attack-on-small-business.html. So, who is lying? Is Mulcair/Unifor telling the truth or Is CFIB telling the truth? It seems to me business said they do support retirement options including pooling plans - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/3923-pooled-registered-pension-plans-prpps.html. Yet, no comment from Mulcair, why? Mulcair did say he supports changes to CPP, right? http://www.carp.ca/2015/05/28/mandatory-cpp-contributions-are-the-way-to-go-say-both-trudeau-and-mulcair/. How is CPP funded? It is funded by payroll taxes? So, hiking CPP would be tax to business so how is this not hurting the small business sector?
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• Mulcair also mention “Dutch Disease - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/is-canada-suffering-from-dutch-disease-1.1140014” that was playing into Quebec and Ontario way to blame the whole manufacturing issues on a high dollar and not areas like hydro rates “http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ontario-businesses-call-on-province-to-curb-rising-electricity-prices-1.3142255. So, who is right? Is the Chamber of Commerce wrong? Mulcair never mention how metal fabricators companies as well as other provinces have benefit from the oil sands, why? http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2012/07/ontario-manufacturers-retool-to-take-advantage-of-a-prairie-energy-boom/. So, who is lying about benefits of oil sands?
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• NDP supporters are entitled to vote for who they want as PM, but to say Mulcair is “Pro manufacturing” is fallacy! If you think I am wrong then prove me wrong which have never happen on Mulcair’s page or with his various MP/candidates.
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Ontario Policies (Ontario key MFG)• It is too bad that both Ontario and PQ have drove out business or they would be bigger parts of the economic growth in Canada! Ontario
should be 3-4% growth and not 2.2%! http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/focus/20150313/feature.pdf . Wait till Ontario taxpayers get the full brunt of ORPP and the carbon tax!!
• Volvo used to make graders in Goderich back in 2008 and then moved the production to South Carolina (http://www.thestar.com/business/2008/10/01/volvo_plant_closure_takes_toll_on_goderich.html). One would have to think if the fundamentals were stronger in Ontario then would Volvo have left Ontario or would have considered Ontario for more investment? http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/volvo-chooses-south-carolina-for-us500m-assembly-plant-147824/?utm_source=CMO&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CMO-EN05112015
• NDP under Mulcair seems to not understand the constitution – 92A – I suggest you check out comments from Peter Julian, Nathan Cullen, Megan Leslie, Niki Ashton, Mulcair, etc. It seems to me they NDP blames MFG losses solely on Harper, right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9M64cHqtx8 . Yet, no comment on Butts’ statement - http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_advisor_gerald_butts_green_energy_policies_cost_ontario_300_000_jobs_admits_liberal_think_tank or http://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=HRH7K-9UE34-ACUS8
Ontario Policies (Ontario key MFG)• Source:
• Ontario Exports lack capacity - http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/19/ontario-manufacturers-key-to-recovery/.
• Debt Rating - http://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2015/07/06/sp-downgrades-ontario.html
• Ontario (ORPP) - http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/12/jack-mintz-ontarios-really-bad-pension-scheme/ or http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/6406-ontario-budget-reissued.html
• Carbon Taxes - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-18/british-columbia-to-outline-carbon-tax-policies-for-lng.html what is also not being said is the tax credits that were brought in as part of buffering the impact of the carbon tax, like lowering personal and corporate taxes or tax credits for entertainment industries, or the areas. The BC government also introduced as specific tax for LNG as way to bring in revenue and to take advantage of growth in LNG. The problem in Ontario is the tax likely will not have much tax credits. Wynne is desperate for money as such will push the carbon tax as tax grab masked as helping the environment. BTW: Ontario has no coal generation as that has been eliminated. Ontario will see costs go up by 3% on top other taxes like ORPP or hikes in hydro rates or other areas. Ontario is becoming very unaffordable for people! My above presentation explains the impact of the carbon tax/pricing in Canada. FYI - Australia scrap the tax, why? http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/australia-scraps-carbon-tax-tony-abbott-makes-his-country-a-global-pariah-after-legislation-is-passed-by-senate-9613291.html. If you want go after emitters then why not slammed the carbon tax on imports from China, India and/or USA? It seems to me India/China/USA are the biggest emitters for GHG, right? Source: ‘
• Harmonization - http://www.cp24.com/mcguinty-rejects-claim-hst-will-kill-jobs-says-it-will-create-600-000-1.454807
• Hydro Rates - http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/02/26/ontarios_big_industries_plead_for_lower_hydro_rates.html or http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_advisor_gerald_butts_green_energy_policies_cost_ontario_300_000_jobs_admits_liberal_think_tank or http://www.northernlife.ca/news/localNews/2015/07/09-hydro-rates-chamber-report-sudbury.aspx
• Skills Gaps - http://www.collegesontario.org/Need_to_Make_Skills_Work_Report_June_2013.pdf
Ontario Policies (Ontario key MFG)• Other Sources / Government policies/market trends
• Municipalities: http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/municipalities-canada
• KPIs for January 2015 - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-market-and-industry-indicators-for-canada-january-2015
• Internal Trade Barriers - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/internal-trade-canada
• CFIB - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5299-employment-insurance-helping-workers-back-to-work.html
• Programs – SDTC - http://www.orbitealuminae.com/English/investors/news/news-details/2015/REMINDER-Orbite-Selected-for-45M-Grant-From-Sustainable-Development-Technology-Canada-SDTC/default.aspx. This program was started by the Liberal party, but kept by the CPC
• Programs – EDC http://www.edc.ca/EN/Knowledge-Centre/Economic-Analysis-and-Research/Documents/export-performance-monitor.pdf
• Programs – small business loans – http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2015/01/22/harper-says-small-business-getting-financial-help
• Natural Gas - http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/19/canada-to-reduce-taxes-for-lng-projects-stephen-harper-says/?__lsa=2753-9c88
• Stimulus - http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-conservatives-ill-advised-to-revive-stimulus-spending-if-economy-tanks-again
• Infrastructure spending - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/municipalities-canada
• Flexible manufacturing - http://www.uky.edu/~dsianita/611/fms.html
LNG• Liquefied Natural Gas
• BC – Petronas - http://www.680news.com/2015/07/25/b-c-finance-minister-heads-to-malaysia-to-discuss-petronas-lng-deal/
• Cape Breton - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/bear-head-lng-corp-gets-export-approval-from-u-s-1.3159753
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• The NDP is against GHG as such where does the NDP stand on LNG Plants? https://www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/industry/Energy/Documents/LNG-Advisory-GHG-V4-Web-secured.pdf. Does this mean NDP will shut down these types of investments?
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• Harper introduced programs to support LNG investment as such will the NDP kill those tax policies? http://globalnews.ca/news/1840176/harper-announces-tax-breaks-for-lng-in-b-c/.
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• How does Mulcair’s cap and trade system support energy sector including LNG? http://www.burnabynewsleader.com/news/environment-debate-warms-up-federal-election-1.1993912
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• It seems the NDP has yet to be coherent on their energy strategy including LNG. So, why would anyone trust the NDP if they cannot stand up for Canadian Energy?
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LNGMPs over LNG projects
• There is allot activity with LNG, especially Cape Breton and BC.
• BC riding is Cullen, but no comment from him on the proposed deal with Petronas, why? You would think a project of this size that brings jobs to Cullen's area would be supported by him, right?
• Rodger Cuzner is the MP over Cape Breton project, but no comment from him as well. Rodger Cuzner is Liberal member of the House of Commons
• Rodger Cuzner has all kinds of time to criticize C377, but no time to promote the LNG project, why?
• https://www.ibew213.org/news/conservatives-use-machiavellian-ploy-pass-anti-labour-bill
Facts/figures/comments/questions on LNG Policy:
Liquefied Natural Gas
• BC – Petronas - http://www.680news.com/2015/07/25/b-c-finance-minister-heads-to-malaysia-to-discuss-petronas-lng-deal/
• Cape Breton - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/bear-head-lng-corp-gets-export-approval-from-u-s-1.3159753
• The NDP is against GHG as such where does the NDP stand on LNG Plants? https://www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/industry/Energy/Documents/LNG-Advisory-GHG-V4-Web-secured.pdf. Does this mean NDP will shut down these types of investments?
• Harper introduced programs to support LNG investment as such will the NDP kill those tax policies? http://globalnews.ca/news/1840176/harper-announces-tax-breaks-for-lng-in-b-c/
• How does Mulcair’s cap and trade system support energy sector including LNG? http://www.burnabynewsleader.com/news/environment-debate-warms-up-federal-election-1.1993912
• It seems the NDP has yet to be coherent on their energy strategy including LNG. So, why would anyone trust the NDP, especially when they are not prepared to stand up for Canadian Energy
Cullen:
• Prince Rupert - http://www.rupertport.com/news/releases/fairview-terminal-expansion
Pipelines
BC and Resource Management
Corporate Tax
NDP Corporate Taxation• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/ndp-leader-mulcairs-corporate-tax-policy-needs-clarity-150026 /
• Taxation Analysis - NDP Policy: http://xfer.ndp.ca/2013/policybook/2013-04-17-PolicyBook_E.pdf
• NDP lists manufacturing:• Harper has already supports MFG via tax policies and/or grants - http://cme-mec.ca/_uploads/_media/52fqtx4b9.pdf. So, how is the NDP going to handle
tax policies? NDP talks about support for business, but says nothing on existing programs like SDTC or EDC or other programs that support seed money or loans or other tax reduction, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/trade-and-investment-for-canada or http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada.
• Harper has no control over provinces establishing policies like carbon pricing/taxation or provincial pension plans, regulations, etc. Yet, these aforementioned programs do more harm than good to Canada’s competitive position.
• Canada already has a green economy via programs like SDTC. So, why does Mulcair not mentioned that in his statements? http://dualcitizeninc.com/GGEI-Report2014.pdf.
• FTA/Investment agreements by Harper already supports huge inflow of capital to help develop the resources and/or industry in Canada - http://www.automationmag.com/industry-news/news/4429-canada-ranks-third-globally-in-foreign-direct-investment-confidence-index/ . Yet, Mr. Mulcair does not mention that issue, why?
• Exports – Harper’s trade deal will start to provide more opportunity for business - https://globalconnections.hsbc.com/united-kingdom/en/tools-data/trade-forecasts/ca. Yet Mulcair does not mention these deals, why? http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/canadas-trade-growth-to-return-to-pre-recession-levels-says-hsbc-148943/
• NDP says targeting employment tax credit, but is that not the same as what Harper is doing with EI cuts and/or training/skills options – So, how come this program is ignored by Mulcair - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5299-employment-insurance-helping-workers-back-to-work.html.
• NDP has transitioned programs listed, but says little how Harper has introduced programs to help business adjust to competitive pressures, why? http://saulschwartz.com/2014/12/11/the-newfoundland-fisheries-innovation-and-adjustment-fund/. NF is fighting the program as they want to use the money for other purposes. So, does the NDP support handling a blank check to the provinces without any accountability on how the money is to be spent as part of any transitioning of businesses?
NDP Corporate Taxation• NDP has social programs like EI and CPP on the list, but is less than clear what that means in terms of policies. If there is further expansion of those programs
then how will the cost be pick up? Does that mean the NDP endorses higher payroll taxes? Harper is working on training and skills development - http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1528807/harper-government-announces-support-mine-training. NDP never makes comments on these programs, why? NDP is also less than clear on education, especially at the provincial level. It is not Harper’s fault if provinces are not putting the right focus on skills and training: http://www.plant.ca/insights/canada-needs-manufacturing-strategy/. The provinces set the educational curriculum as such why is Mulcair not calling out the provinces?
• Made in Canada solutions? How is Mulcair going to come up with value added work in Canada? Is Mulcair going to throw subsidies at business? Yet, Harper is focus on advance manufacturing that will lead to valued added work being created in Canada - http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=905129 http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/harper-government-supports-innovation-in-western-canada-2000280.htm
• NDP has labor laws listed, but said little how provinces have control over many areas of labor law: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_labour_law or http://www.benefitscanada.com/news/ontario-to-launch-consultations-on-labour-laws-62723. So, where does the NDP stand on bringing consistency to labor laws across Canada?
• Social responsibilities – Harper continues to ensure companies live up to their social responsibilities - http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/ottawa-vows-to-protect-canada-brand-with-social-responsibility-policy/article21579511/ or How come Mr. Mulcair does not discussed the sustainable reporting already being done by companies? http://www.pwc.com/en_CA/ca/sustainability/publications/corporate-sustainability-reporting-canada-2009-en.pdf
• Overall, the NDP policies is all about riding existing policies as well as putting their own spin on policies. The ironic thing is that most of the policies in discussion by the NDP have already been implemented by Harper and/or will continue to be revisited as part supporting the economy.
• The NDP is also not being truthful on the cost of their programs as any changes to programs will have a costs. So, where is the fully-costed analysis from the NDP? It seems to me NDP is just throwing out policies without truly understanding either the cost impact and/or the risk to business as part implementing changes in policies!
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Corporate Taxation