Canton Analysis (August 2014)

Population and Job Trends The Canton-Massillon, OH Metro Area has nearly the same population today (2010) as in 1970: in the last forty years, the MSA gained just (roughly) 10,000 people. During this same time period, the city of Canton continued to lose population (a trend dating back to the 1950s). By 2010, the city was home to just over 73,000, down by more than one-third (37%) from nearly 117,000 in 1950.

Sources: Census Bureau, czbLLC.

As a result of these trends, Canton’s role within the region continues to fade. In 2010, Canton residents accounted for only 18% of the MSA’s overall population – or fewer than one-in-five. In 1920, in contrast, nearly half (45%) of MSA residents were city residents.

393,789 405,334

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Population Trends, 1900 to 2010

MSA Canton

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Sources: Census Bureau, czbLLC.

County MSA Canton Canton as a % of

MSA 1900 111,558 30,667 27.5%

1910 138,748 50,217 36.2%

1920 193,160 87,091 45.1%

1930 237,841 104,906 44.1%

1940 252,336 108,401 43.0%

1950 302,233 116,912 38.7%

1960 361,202 113,631 31.5%

1970 393,789 110,053 27.9%

1980 404,421 94,730 23.4%

1990 394,106 84,161 21.4%

2000 406,934 80,806 19.9%

2010 405,334 73,007 18.0%

Sources: Census Bureau, czbLLC. Since the height of the boom, the number of jobs fell substantially in the MSA as a whole and in downtown Canton. The Canton-Massillon, OH Metro Area lost roughly 20,000 jobs between 2006 and 2010 while downtown Canton lost approximately 1,500 jobs.

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Canton's Population as a % of MSA Population, 1900 to 2010

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Sources: County Business Patterns, czbLLC.

While the number of jobs has rebounded slightly MSA-wide (increasing from 137,639 in 2010 to 139,427 in 2011), the number of jobs continued to decline within the city of Canton (from 4,513 in 2010 to 4,459 in 2011). Today, the MSA’s jobs are largely concentrated to the northwest of the city. Jobs are far more plentiful in these zip codes than in downtown Canton, highlighting the smaller role that Canton and its central business district now play in the larger job market. While downtown jobs do average higher annual wages than those in other zip codes, these jobs are fewer in number and actually declining. Since the height of the boom, the number of jobs and the combined payroll both fell substantially – by roughly half of a billion dollars and 20,000 jobs in the MSA as a whole, and by $60 to $70 million and at least 1,500 jobs in downtown Canton.

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# of Employees from 2000 to 2010, Downtown Canton (44702)

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Sources: County Business Patterns, czbLLC.

Demographic and Socio-Economic Characteristics As it declines, the make-up of Canton’s population continues to change. Between 2000 and 2012, the city lost 9,711 non-Hispanic white residents – a 16% drop in this subset of the city’s population. The number of non-Hispanic black residents also fell but to a far lesser degree (by 560 residents, or just 3%), while the city’s Hispanic population nearly doubled (from 1,058 in 2000 to 1,820 in 2012). As a result of these trends, non-Hispanic whites now account for 68% of Canton residents, down from 74% in 2000.

Canton

2000 2012 Change % Change

Population 81,118 73,318 -7,800 -10%

Non-Hispanic White 59,714 50,003 -9,711 -16%

Non-Hispanic Black 17,051 16,491 -560 -3%

Hispanic 1,058 1,820 762 72%

% Non-Hispanic White 74% 68% -5% -7%

% Non-Hispanic Black 21% 22% 1% 7%

% Hispanic 1% 2% 1% 90% Even though it, too, is diversifying, the rest of Stark County (the area outside of the city of Canton) remains 92% non-Hispanic white. And while 61% of Stark County’s non-Hispanic black residents live within the city of Canton, fully 85% of Stark County non-Hispanic whites live outside the city.

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The county’s weakest households and families are increasingly concentrated within the city. Between 2000 and 2012, the number of families including related children under 18 declined citywide. But this decline hides a disturbing trend: the number of these families headed by married couples dropped dramatically – by more than 2,000 – over this time period while the number of these families headed by a single parent actually increased by 400. As a result, over the course of this time period the share of families with related children headed by single parents increased from 47.7% in 2000 to 60.4% in 2012.

Canton

2000 2012 Change

Families with Related Children <18: 10,816 9,204 -1,612

Headed by Single Parents 5,158 5,558 400

Headed by Married Couples 5,658 3,646 -2,012

% of Families with Related Children <18 Headed by Single Parents 47.7% 60.4% 13%

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Home of Stark County Residents by Race/Ethnicity, 2012

Suburbs

City (Canton)

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Families with Related Children <18 in Canton, 2000 and 2012

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This prevalence of single-parent families among all families with related children is true across nearly all of Canton: in most city Census tracts (as of 2012), over half of all families with related children are headed by single parents.

Just as the number of single-parent families with children is on the rise, so, too, are the number of people and families below the poverty level living within the city of Canton, which houses more than twice its share of the county’s poor people and poor families. Between 2000 and 2012, the city’s number of people below the poverty level increased by more than 6,800 – nearing 21,800 by 2012, when the city’s poverty rate reached 30.8%. (This rate was the 27th highest among all 755 places in the country with at least 50,000 residents.)

Canton

2000 2012 Change % Change

Population below poverty 14,957 21,768 6,811 46%

Poverty Rate (Individuals) 19.2% 30.8% 11.6% 61%

Families below poverty 3,069 4,382 1,313 43%

Poverty Rate (Families) 15.4% 25.3% 9.9% 64%

A 20% poverty rate is considered “high;” a 40% poverty rate is considered “extreme.” Throughout much of southern Canton, Census tracts’ poverty rates were well in excess of 40% in 2012.

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During the last decade, the city also gained more than 1,300 poor families between 2000 and 2012; by 2012, one out of every four Canton families (25.3%) lived below the poverty level. Over 40% of families in many southern Canton Census tracts live below the poverty level.

Between 2000 and 2012, Canton’s median household income remained nearly unchanged (only increasing from $28,730 to $30,000). Median incomes were below $25,000 throughout much of southern Canton in 2012.

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Citywide, by 2012, Canton was home to 1.7 times its share of low-income households (those with incomes below $20,000); these households accounted for over one-third (34%) of the city’s households. Nearly three-in-five (57%) Canton households had incomes below $35,000, compared to 32% of households elsewhere in Stark County.

By 2012, 30% of Canton households (8,995 households) received income from public assistance and/or SNAP (Food Stamp) benefits. In most southern Canton Census tracts, more than half of all households did so.

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Canton Remainder of Stark County

Household Income by Location, 2012

$100,000+

$75,000 to $99,999

$50,000 to $74,999

$35,000 to $49,999

$20,000 to $34,999

<$20,000

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Closely related to these stagnant incomes, climbing poverty rates, and high reliance on public assistance is the fact that Canton’s civilian labor force is declining (by 2,705 between 2000 and 2012) as the ranks of its unemployed is rising (by 2,408 over the same time period).

Canton

2000 2012 Change % Change

Civilian Labor Force 37382 34,677 -2,705 -7%

Unemployed 2907 5,315 2,408 83%

Unemployment Rate 7.8% 15.3% 7.6% 97% In Census tracts across southern and southeastern Canton, unemployment rates are nearly universally over 20%.

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Housing Market Characteristics Just as Canton’s socioeconomic characteristics are declining, so too is the strength of its housing market. While the city has long had a higher abandonment rate than the rest of the county, its abandonment rate climbed dramatically between the 2000 and 2010 decennial Censuses, pulling even further away from its surroundings. In 2000, the Census identified 726 “other” vacant properties (those not for rent or for sale or for seasonal use; those likely abandoned by their owners), which put Canton’s abandonment rate at 2.0% of all housing units, double that found in the rest of the county. (The rest of Stark County had 1,270 “other” vacant units that year, and an abandonment rate of just 1.0%.) In 2010, Census counted 2,320 “other” vacant units in Canton – a more than 300% increase. That year, Canton’s abandonment rate reached 6.7% - more than three times as high as the rate in the rest of Stark County (2.1% in 2010).

In central Canton (those Census tracts to the east of downtown), abandonment rates exceeded 15% in 2010.

Not surprisingly, these higher abandonment rates are accompanied by lower property values. In 2012, the median value of Canton’s owner-occupied housing units was just $78,900 and its average value was $90,290 (compared to an average value of $152,076 in the rest of Stark County). Within the city, fully 68% of owner-occupied units are valued below $100,000, compared to just 29% in the rest of the county.

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To be sure, certain parts of Canton have higher values than others. In the northwest quadrant of the city, the median value in 2012 (according to the American Community Survey) exceeded $100,000. Throughout the rest of the city, though, medians were below $100,000 – and below $75,000 throughout much of the southern half of the city.

In fact, an analysis of recent sales data (from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS)) suggests that Canton’s Census tracts fall into one of four categories based on the typical value of for-sale housing within them: 1) Strong market tracts, in the

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Canton Remainder of Stark County

Value of Owner-Occupied Units by Location, 2012

$300,000+

$200,000 to $299,999

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$100,000 to $149,999

$80,000 to $99,999

$50,000 to $79,999

<$50,000

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northern-most sections of the city; 2) middle market tracts, primarily just to the south of the strong market tracts; 3) weak market tracts just to the south of US Highway 62 and east of I-77; and 4) very weak market tracts surrounding and south of the city’s downtown district.

In 2005, at the height of the housing boom in Canton, the average sale price of a single-family home topped $180,000 in the city’s strong markets, was nearly $100,000 in the city’s middle markets, was $78,545 in the city’s weak markets, and was just above $50,000 in the city’s weakest (“very weak”) markets. By 2011, after years of steady declines, the average sale price in the city’s strong markets remained above $150,000 but the average in middle markets had slipped to just over $70,000. And in the city’s weak and very weak markets, the average sale price was down to very low levels: $31,147 in weak market tracts and just $15,398 in very weak market tracts. Values this low give properties’ owners very little economic incentive to make needed repairs and even less incentive to make more serious property upgrades (such as new kitchens or bathrooms or roofs) that could make homes more marketable.

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Such weakening demand relates at least in part to the fact that Canton is losing homeowners; for-sale properties have fewer potential owners looking to buy them. Between 2000 and 2012, while the city gained 361 renter households, Canton lost over 3,000 owner households. (The number of owner-occupied housing units declined from 19,375 in 2000 to 16,310 in 2012 – a 16% drop.)

Canton

2000 2012 Change % Change

Occupied units 32,530 29,826 -2,704 -8%

Owner occupied 19,375 16,310 -3,065 -16%

Renter occupied 13,155 13,516 361 3% Over the same time period, the city’s overall homeownership rate fell from 60% to 55% and the percentage of owners aged 55 or older increased from 44% of all owners to full half (50%) of all owners (another sign that long-time owners are not being joined or replaced by younger households).

Homeownership rates were even down in the city’s single-family detached housing stock – those units most geared toward owner-occupants. Between 2000 and 2012, the percentage of these occupied by homeowners fell from 82% to 75%; the number occupied by owners declined by 2,925 while the number occupied by renters increased by 1,151 and the number that were vacant increased by another 1,599. (The vacancy rate in single-family detached units increased from 5% in 2000 to 11.8% by 2012.)

Canton

2000 2012 Change % Change

All Single-family Detached Units 23,812 23,637 -175 -1%

Owner-occupied Single-family Detached Units 18,613 15,688 -2,925 -16%

% Owner-occupied 82% 75%

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Average Sale Price of Single-family Home in Canton Census Tracts by Tract-Level Market Strength, 2003-2011

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Canton

2000 2012 Change % Change

Renter-occupied Single-family Detached Units 4,001 5,152 1,151 29%

Vacant Single-family Detached Units 1,198 2,797 1,599 133%

% Vacant 5.0% 11.8% Gross rents are also lower in the city of Canton than in the surrounding county: according to the 2012 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 62% of Canton’s apartments rented for less than $650 (compared to just 43% of apartments in the rest of Stark County); fully 39% rented for less than $500 (twice the share that did so elsewhere in the county).

Despite these low rent levels, over half (53%) of Canton renters have unaffordable housing costs (paying more than 30% of their income on rent). This is up from 39% in 2000. Rising affordability challenges are largely a function of the fact that (though still relatively low) rents rose, on average, by 38% between 2000 and 2012 (the median gross rent increased from $420 to $578) while renter incomes fell (the median renter income declined from $18,196 in 2000 to $18,041 in 2012). While a renter at the median renter income could afford the median gross rent in 2000 (with $35 to spare), a renter at the median renter income was $127 short of affording the median gross rent each month in 2012.

Canton

2000 2012 Change % Change

Median Gross Rent $420 $578 $158 38%

Median Renter Income $18,196 $18,041 -$155 -1%

Affordable Rent for the Median Renter Income $455 $451 Gap (Affordable Rent - Median Renter Income) $35 -$127

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Canton Remainder of Stark County

Gross Rent by Location, 2012

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<$500

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