CAPEC INTERNATIONAL FORUM CAPEC INTERNATIONAL FORUM BEIJING, CHINA, 20 NOVEMBER 2013 BEIJING, CHINA, 20 NOVEMBER 2013

Lefadi MakibinyaneChief Executive Officer

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National Development Plan - Background

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2012

Apr President Zuma appoints the Commission

Jun Diagnostic Report published

Nov Draft National Development Plan released

Public consultation

2013 onwards2010 2011 2011/12

Aug Handover to President and NationSep Cabinet adopts the Plan

Focus on implementation

Dec ANC Conference adopts the Plan

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The National Development Plan aims to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030. South Africa can realise these goals by drawing on the energies of its people, growing an inclusive economy, building capabilities, enhancing the capacity of the state, and promoting leadership and partnerships throughout society.”Source: National Development Plan Executive Summary

National Development Plan

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5 Geographically-focused SIPs3 Spatial SIPs3 Energy SIPs 3 Social Infrastructure2 Knowledge SIPs1 Regional Integration SIP1 One Water & Sanitation MasterplanSIP

Overview of the 18 SIPs

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Role of SOCs in the PICC

•The PICC has appointed a State Owned Company (SOC) to lead each SIP, the intent being to:•Ensure project focus•Improve project co-ordination and quality (development and construction) through the use of standardised and proven methods and tools•Improve progress tracking through the use of standardised dashboards and common information technology systems•Raise decisions required to unblock progress to a ministerial and presidential level•The creation of the asset remains the accountability of the asset owner e.g. transmission infrastructure remains with Eskom, rail with Transnet Freight Rail and water with Department of Water Affairs.

Diagnostic Report in June 2011

Too few people work

•The quality of school education for black people is poor•Infrastructure is poorly located, inadequate and under-maintained•Spatial divides hobble inclusive development•The economy is unsustainably resource intensive•The public health system cannot meet demand or sustain quality•Public services are uneven and often of poor quality

•Corruption levels are high

•South Africa remains a divided society 7

Demographic trends

• Population to reach 58.5 million by 2030• Fertility rates are declining• By 2030 70% of population will be urban• In 2010, SA entered a ‘demographic window’

– large youth population

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Key characteristics of the NDP

Not just a vision - a long-term strategic plan, that serves four broad objectives:

1. Provides overarching goals to achieve by 2030

2. Builds consensus on the key obstacles and specific actions to be undertaken

3. Provides a common framework for detailed planning

4. Creates a basis for making choices about how best to use limited resources

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Contribution

• The Engineering profession did contribute significant to the NDP

Relevant : Chapter 3 : Economy and EmploymentChapter 4 : Economic Infrastructure Chapter 9 : Improving Education Training

and Innovation Chapter 13 : Building a capable and Developmental

state

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Others

• Other parts of the NDP :

Chapter 5 : Environmental Sustainability – an equitable transition to a row carbon

economyChapter 6 : An Integrated and Inclusive Rural

Economy Chapter 7 : Positioning South Africa in the WorldChapter 8 : Transforming Human Settlement and

National Space Economy

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Rest of the NDP

• Not highlighted by the Engineering Profession :

Chapters 1 and 2 about policy making and demographic trend

Chapter 10 : on health challenges and promoting health goalsChapter 11 : Social protection Chapter 12 : Building Safer Communities Chapter 14 : Fighting Corruption Chapter 15 : Transforming Society and Uniting the

Country

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Shortage of EngineersAccredited BEng-type Programmes per million of population

Country Population Programmes Ratio

South Africa 51.5 51 1.0

Japan 125.0 388 3.1

Turkey 76.9 300 3.9

Singapore22 5.1 23 4.5

United States 327.2 1854 5.7

Ireland 4.6 30 6.5

Canada 35.1 261 7.4

Malaysia 28.3 211 7.5

New Zealand 4.4 36 8.1

Shortage

Accredited BEng-type Programmes per million of population (contd)

Country Population Programmes Ratio

S. Korea 49.2 463 9.4

Australia 23.8 248 10.4

Taiwan 25.0 3331 13.2

Hong Kong 7.1 111 15.6

United Kingdom3 64.8 1903 29.4

Extract from Engineering Profession’s submission to National Planning Commission, 20121 : Low estimate, not all programmes accredited2 : Low estimate : number of students per programme is large3 : High estimate : cases where two programmes are required in combination

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Cycle of development

Diagnostic of the SA Economy

• Under apartheid, the economy was oligopolistic: – strong mining sector and – sophisticated financial services sector

• Ownership and control patterns largely unchanged & contribute to high levels of poverty and inequality

• Low skill jobs have declined & high skill jobs grew significantly

• Loss of low skill jobs has raised inequality

• Too few skills to compete with advanced economies & high cost structure to compete with developing countries

• Our weak economic performance is largely attributed to poor export performance since the early 1980s

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Explaining the slow progress on jobs

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Migration between provinces

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The in – and outflows

Province where people were counted compared with province of birth

Migration

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Census 2011

Real GDP by 2030

Real GDP in 2010

Provincial Contribution to GDP

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Spatial transformation

• Tackle inherited spatial divisions in accordance with principles of spatial justice, sustainability, resilience, quality and efficiency

• Contain sprawl and increase densities (but mitigate against rising costs of land for the poor)

• Investment in public transport should be actively used for the spatial transformation of towns and cities

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Create jobs

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• Lower the cost of living and of doing business

• Increase infrastructure spending to 10% of GDP

• Promote competitiveness and exports - diversify trade towards emerging economies

• Exploit our mineral endowments to pay for capability upgrading

• Promote manufacturing in areas of competitive advantage

• Grow agricultural output and focus on agro-processing

• Improve the functioning of the labour market to make it easier for young work seekers to get jobs

• Make it possible for very skilled immigrants to work in South Africa

Grow the economy and make it more labour absorbing

NDP Headline Numbers

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ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTUREIN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM

Regulation, energy, watertransport, ICT

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Low-carbon economy

• Focus on more energy-efficient buildings and building techniques.– Target is zero emission building standards by 2030.

• Invest in research and human capacity in climate change adaptation and climate modelling, agricultural technologies

• Establish Independent Climate Change Centre to support actions of government, business and civil society.

• Invest in renewable energy technologies. – Target is for at least 20 000 MW of renewable energy to

be contracted by 2030.

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Regulation

• Plan has called for a far-reaching review of current infrastructure regulators, to clarify roles and accountabilities, update legislation and subsidiary regulations and reform institutional arrangements and design

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Regulation

• Internationally, there has been much recent rethinking about the institutional arrangements and design of network regulators.

– Regulators can do more to smooth prices and avoid these economic shocks.

– The quality of regulation, however, is not just about the regulator. The state itself must have adequate capacity and capability to formulate effective policy framework, support the design, establishment, review and improvement of regulators – and to respond adequately to issues

identified by capable regulators.

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Build a capable state

• Create a professional public service– Ensure that the public service in immersed in the

development agenda but insulated from undue political interference

– Boost the role of the public service commission – Create an administrative head of the public service

• Make the public service a career of choice– Establish a government - wide graduate trainee

programme – Create career paths for technical specialists and local

government civil servants • Improve relations between national, provincial and local

government– Give metros a more coherent set of powers

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Build a capable state

• Improve state-owned enterprises a professional public service– Produce clear, publicly available mandates setting out

public interest – Clean up governance structures: government appoints

the boards and the boards appoint CEOs– Clearly delineate responsibilities between departments

• Professionalise the police service– Implement dual track recruitment process– Put in place code of conduct to enforce discipline

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Implications for Local Government

• Need to strengthen the ability of local government to fulfil its developmental role

• IDPs need to focus attention on critical areas such as spatial planning, infrastructure and basic services.

• IDP process needs to be led by municipal staff, not outsourced to consultants

• Local govt must identify NDP programmes where implementation can start immediately

• Build on NDP proposals and develop programme implementation plans

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Managing intergovernmental relations

• Give metros greater control over built environment functions

• Broker agreements on the division of service provision and funding where duplication exists between district and local municipalities

• Regional service providers to play a role where municipalities lack capacity

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Summary on Engineering

•We have a long standing deficit•Development will require greatly increased engineering skills – to plan, design, build, maintain and operate services and infrastructure for improved quality of life for the majority •The shortage is a structural problem•Production of engineering professionals is a pipeline process – needs an integrated approach •Addressing the structural problem requires a concerted action by a group of stakeholders, i.e. government, engineering universities, basic education employers and even Setas.

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The six pillars of the NDP

1. Mobilisation of all South Africans2. Active engagement of citizens in

their own development3. Expansion of the economy &

making growth inclusive4. Building of key capabilities

(human, physical & institutional)5. Building a capable and

developmental state6. Fostering of strong leadership

throughout society

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Engineering activities

•Economic development and provision of services to society •Application of engineering sciences, technology, and techniques•Engineers provide solutions predicted in often uncertain contexts•Engineering has consequences and .. Must be carried out

- responsibly and ethically- efficiently and economically - safeguarding health and safety

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Relevance

Where Engineering comes in

•Climate change, extreme weather, energy, new energy sources, low carbon economy, sanitation, water supply, flooding, waste management, manufacturing, natural/mineral resources, agricultural output, pollution, fuels, etc.

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Relevance

• Also – Inclusive Growth w/c reduces unemployment reduces poverty and raises living standards

• Need to improve material conditions and human conditions iot improve capabilities of SA

For all this we need active citizenry, effective government and strong leadership

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The visioning has been done – we must now focus on implementation &

measurable outcomes

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A focus on implementation

Integrate NDP into government plans for 2013, and make existing government work consistent with the Plan

Identify, at the outset, areas of responsibility and accountability

Prioritise critical steps to unlock implementation

Sustain broad public support and use social dialogue to construct cross-sectoral partnerships and set benchmarks

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THANK

YOU