capital allocation and enhanced risk management - mtn group · incremental roic > wacc +2%...
TRANSCRIPT
Capital allocation and enhanced risk management
MTN Group LimitedRalph Mupita – Group CFO
UBS conference – 26 March 2018
Recap on 2017 results1
Enhanced risk management3
2
Capital allocation2
Agenda
3
Recap on 2017 results
4
2017 group financial results - salient features
Group digital revenue
R13bn**
+14,2%*
Group revenue
R133bn**
+ 6,8%*
Group service revenue
R124bn**
+ 7,2%*
Group data revenue
R28bn**
+ 34,2%*
Adjusted HEPS
-15,1%
665 cents
Group EBITDA
+2,5%*
R47,0bn**
Group capital expenditure
23,7% of revenue
R31,5bn**
HEPS
-51,9%***
182 cents
* Constant currency view is shown and is adjusted for hyperinflation, tower profits, Nigeria fine and MTN Zakhele futhi impact** Reported*** Reported excluding the Nigeria regulatory fine
Final dividend of 450 cents per share
5
2017 group financial results - HEPS
ZAR (cents) 2017 2016 Change%
Attributable earnings / (loss) per share 246 (144) NM
Impairment of goodwill, PPE and non-current assets 275 60 NM
Profit on exercise of exchange right (IHS) (335) - (100,0)
Other (4) 7 NM
Basic headline earnings / (loss) per share 182 (77) NM
Nigeria regulatory fine - 455 NM
Basic headline earnings per share (excluding Nigeria regulatory fine) 182 378 (51,9)
Nigeria fine interest 46 45 2,2
Hyperinflation (excluding impairments) 96 37 NM
Foreign exchange losses and gains 159 235 (32,3)
MTN Zakhele Futhi 24 88 (72,7)
Loss on derecognition of loan (IHS) 158 - 100,0
Adjusted headline earnings per share (excluding non-operational items) 665 783 (15,1)
Impacted by non-operational items
6
Medium-term targets
Service
revenue
growth*Group upper single digit growth
South Africa
mid single
digit growth
Nigeria
double digit
growth
Improving
EBITDA
margins
Capex intensity between
20% to 15%
Dividend policy of
500 cents in 2018, growing
10% to 20% per year
2,0x – 2,5x Adjusted holdco leverage ∆
* Constant currency∆ Adjusted Holdco leverage = Holdco net debt / SA EBITDA + cash upstreaming
7
2017 2019 20202018 2020201920182017 2017 20192018 2020
Revenue EBITDA Capex Operating FCF
EBITDAEBITDA margin CapexCapex intensity Operating free cash flow
2020201920182017
Top line growth EBITDA growth Lower Capex Higher FCF
Other revenueService revenue
Constant currency
Growth – capital allocation and cash generation
8
Capital allocation
9
Capital allocation
Incremental ROIC > WACC +2%• Seeking projects with payback < 4 years
• Conflict markets to be self funding
1
Appropriate group and opco gearing• Stabilise net debt
• Maintain sufficient headroom in facilities
3
Dividends• Operating cash flow fund dividends over the medium term
• Dividend growth aligned to the investment case
• Maintain financial flexibility for risk and growth opportunities
4
M&A• Nigeria and Ghana IPO
• Proceeds to be used for de-leveraging, growth opportunities, share buy-backs and special dividends
5
Smart capex• Investing appropriately for network and NPS leadership
• Reducing unitary costs for network equipment
2
10
Capex profile - 2017 actual and 2018 guidance
1 078
Iran*
1 254
9 600
2 294
9 274
Nigeria
4 002
11 470
SEAGHA
2 4993 651
WECASA MENA
3 696
8 953
4 620
6 917
3 794
27 747
Group
31 461**
Other
20172018 guidance
Capex 2017
ZAR (million)
*Iran Capex at 49% and is not part of the consolidated Group Capex
** Reported
11
Output sample data from MTN Iran Smart Capex Model
Customers Device
Market & Position, Market share
Network utilisation and Demographics
Telecom expense breakdown
Usage behaviour
SIM
QoS data
Technology breakdown
Input
Segmentation
Market Potential
Competitor
Network
Financial
Model
Market sizing and market share analysis
New site establishment plan per city,
province
Modernisation plan per BTS
Expected growth of Usage or Throughput
per year
Period of investments
Expected Load per site, City, Province
Revenue, OPEX , CAPEX per year
Percentage of Market share per year
NPV, ROI, Payback
Output
Capital allocation drivers – smart capex
12
Capital allocation drivers - price book savingsRAN HW + SW standardisation key highlights - illustrative
Hardware Software
NigeriaSEAGHASASA
Average Hardware Pricing (unitary), Old vs New Prices
USD ‘000
Software Pricing (Tiered annual unitary pricing/site), Old vs New Prices
USD ‘000
Key Benefits• Price reduction
• YoY Price erosion for future years established and agreed
• Fully enabled hardware with maximum capacity
• Extended free warranty/support period
• Simplified & streamlined configurations, from 900 to 26 configurations
Key Benefits• Price reduction
• YoY Price erosion for some vendors already secured
• Flat fee per model (easy to deploy and to predict)
• Independent of traffic or subscriber growth
• Unlimited SW features all you can eat SW feature list)
Old Price - USD per annum New Price - USD per annum Old Price - USD per annum New Price - USD per annum
13
Leverage and funding
Group (ZAR million) 2017 2016
Cash and cash equivalents (22 575) (35 052)
Interest bearing liabilities 79 720 86 954
Net debt 57 145 51 902
Group leverage# 1,3 1,1
Holdco (ZAR million) 2017 2016
Cash and cash equivalents (7 452) (11 422)
Interest bearing liabilities 59 173 61 450
Net debt 51 721 50 028
Adjusted Holdco leverage∆ 2,7 2,6
Leverage
Naira USD
Nigeria borrowings (%)
49%2016: (65%)
51%2016: (35%)
ZAR USD
55%2016: (58%)
45%2016: (42%)
Head office borrowings (%)
# Group leverage = Group net debt / EBITDA adjusted for hyperinflation, MTN Zakhele Futhi and tower profits
∆ Adjusted Holdco leverage = Holdco net debt / SA EBITDA + cash upstreaming
Cash and cash equivalents include restricted cash and current investments; Interest bearing liabilities includes a foreign currency translation decrease of R6.9bn since Dec 16
14
Focus on managing holding company debt profile and refinancing risk
Debt and maturity profile
Instruments Amount due
2018 GBFs 750
Bonds and CPs 307
2019 Term facilities 1 237
Bonds and CPs 1 150
2020 Bonds and CPs 1 954
Term facilities 1 500
2021 Term facilities 24 518
2022 Eurobond 6 187
Bonds and CPs 1 529
Term Facilities 1 500
2024 Eurobond 9 281
Bonds and CP’s 1 017
2026 Eurobond 6 187
Total in ZAR^ 57 117
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ZAR denominated facilities USD denominated facilities
^Principal repayments
Enhanced risk management
16
MTN Group’s top risks
Risk Risk description1 Foreign exchange volatility and weakening currencies
2 Operational and compliance risks
3 Increased regulatory pressures
4 Suboptimal cash generation and upstreaming to the group
5 Political and economic risk in our key markets: South Africa, Nigeria and Iran
6 Spectrum cost and availability
7 Ability to successfully execute large group strategic and change programmes
8 Returns on capex deployed
9 Optimisation of investment portfolio
10 Increasing cyber and information risks
17
Enhancements to risk management framework
Splitting lines of assurance
• Our risk & compliance functions & internal audit functions will be separate functions
• OpCo internal audit functions will report directly to the Group
1
Strengthening our Compliance functions
• We are strengthening resource capacity by more than 200%
2
Embedding risk appetite into decision making
• Aligning our risk thresholds with the BRIGHT strategy
3
Rollout of escalation framework
• Group-wide framework to escalate risk events through executive and governance committees
4
Strengthening management KPIs on Governance
• Increased focus on closing findings, preventing repeat findings, lowering % of ineffective controls
5
Strengthening process consistency
• Creating a dedicated focus on policy and procedure compliance
• Implementation of group-wide ERP solution
6
Thank you
Questions?