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GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Third Quarter 2018 RISKS RISE AS CONCERNS FOR GLOBAL GROWTH INCREASE Guy Bruten Chief Economist – Asia Pacific ex China This presentation is provided by AllianceBernstein Australia Limited. This presentation does not constitute “personal advice,” as defined in the Corporations Act 2001.This presentation booklet has been provided to you for use in a private and confidential meeting to discuss a potential or existing investment advisory relationship. This presentation is not an advertisement, is not intended for retail or public use or distribution beyond our private meeting and must be returned to us immediately upon demand. AllianceBernstein Australia Limited ABN 53 095 022 718 AFSL 230 698 For Investment Professional use only. Not for inspection by, distribution or quotation to, the general public.

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Page 1: CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein€¦ · CMO 3Q18 | 1. Important Information. This document has been prepared by AllianceBernstein Australia Limited (“ABAL”)—ABN

GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK

Third Quarter 2018

RISKS RISE AS CONCERNS FOR GLOBAL GROWTH INCREASE

Guy Bruten Chief Economist – Asia Pacific ex China

This presentation is provided by AllianceBernstein Australia Limited. This presentation does not constitute “personal advice,” as defined in the Corporations Act 2001.This presentation booklet has been provided to you for use in a private and confidential meeting to discuss a potential or existing investment advisory relationship. This presentation is not an advertisement, is not intended for retail or public use or distribution beyond our private meeting and must be returned to us immediately upon demand. AllianceBernstein Australia Limited ABN 53 095 022 718 AFSL 230 698

For Investment Professional use only. Not for inspection by, distribution or quotation to, the general public.

Page 2: CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein€¦ · CMO 3Q18 | 1. Important Information. This document has been prepared by AllianceBernstein Australia Limited (“ABAL”)—ABN

1|CMO 3Q18

Important Information

This document has been prepared by AllianceBernstein Australia Limited (“ABAL”)—ABN 53 095 022 718, AFSL 230 698. Information in this document is only intended for persons that qualify as “wholesale clients,” as defined by the Corporations Act 2001, and is not to be construed as advice. This document is provided solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy or sell securities or to provide any service. The information, forecasts and opinions set forth in this document or provided at any meeting have not been prepared for any recipient’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Neither this document nor the information contained in it are intended to take the place of professional advice. You should not take action on specific issues based on the information contained in this document without first obtaining professional advice.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Projections, although based on current information, may not be realized. Information, forecasts and opinions can change without notice and ABAL does not guarantee the accuracy of the information at any particular time. Although care has been exercised in compiling the information contained in this document or provided at any meeting, ABAL does not warrant that this document or any information or opinion provided at a meeting are free from errors, inaccuracies or omissions. ABAL disclaims any liability for damage or loss arising from reliance upon any matter contained in this document or provided at any meeting except for statutory liability which cannot be excluded.

No reproduction of the materials in this document may be made without the express written permission of ABAL. This information is provided for persons in Australia only and is not being provided for the use of any person who is in any other country.

Page 3: CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein€¦ · CMO 3Q18 | 1. Important Information. This document has been prepared by AllianceBernstein Australia Limited (“ABAL”)—ABN

2|CMO 3Q18

As of June 30, 2018Past performance does not guarantee future results.Global corporates, and Japan and Euro-area government bonds in hedged USD terms. All other non-US returns in unhedged USD terms. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AllianceBernstein (AB) portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect the fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio.*Europe, Australasia and the Far East†Returns reflect Morningstar US open-end fund category averages.Source: Bloomberg Barclays, Morningstar Direct and AB

–1.2–0.2–0.2

1.91.8

–1.1–0.3

–1.9–5.2

0.2

–6.7–2.8

7.72.7

Returns in US Dollars

–0.1–0.5

0.2

–0.10.9

0.10.9

–0.5–3.5

1.0

–8.0–1.2

7.83.4

2Q 2018 Returns Recap: Dispersion Is a Key Theme

Equities

Government Bonds

Credit

Alternatives†

Jan–Jun 2018 Returns (Percent)

2Q:2018 Returns(Percent)

Japan

US High Yield

US

Euro Area

Emerging-Market Debt

Long/Short Equity

MultialternativeNontraditional Bond

Global Corporate

EAFE*

US Large-Cap

Emerging Markets

US Small-Cap

Municipals

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3|CMO 3Q18

Past performance does not guarantee future results.As of June 30, 2018Global High Yield, Emerging-Market Debt, Global Corporates, US, Japan and Euro Area government bonds in hedged AUD. All other returns are in unhedged AUD.An investor cannot invest directly in an index and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio. *Real Estate Investment Trusts Source: Bloomberg Barclays, Morningstar, MSCI, S&P and AB. Please refer to Index Definitions in Appendix

Returns in Australian Dollars (Percent)2Q 2018 Returns Recap: Emerging Markets and Credit Underperform

9.54.3

0.8–0.1

0.80.1

–0.5–2.5

–1.1

–4.38.4

0.72.5

7.45.6

Equities

Government Bonds

Credit

Alternatives Global REITs*Commodities

AustraliaEmerging Markets

Europe

World

Japan

US

EuropeJapan

Australia

US

Global High YieldEmerging-Market Debt

Global Corporate

6.85.9

1.72.01.8

–1.1

–1.9–4.0

–1.9

–1.04.3

3.72.4

8.76.3

2Q:2018 Returns Jan–Jun 2018 Returns

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4|CMO 3Q18

Source: AB

Global Macro Cycle: The Cycle Matures, But Which Scenario Will It Cut to Next?

Growth High/Inflation Rising

Growth Slowing/Inflation High

Growth Low/Inflation Falling

Growth Rising/Inflation Low

Risk Assets: -/+Duration: ++

Risk Assets: +Duration: -

Risk Assets: -Duration: +

Risk Assets: +/-Duration: -/-

Risk Assets: ++Duration: +

Risk Assets: -Duration: -/-

Risk Assets: -/-Duration: -

Risk Assets +Duration: ++

2017

2016

2015

2018

2019 (A)

2019 (B)

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5|CMO 3Q18

Source: AB

Global Cyclical Dashboard

Monetary Policy

Fed tightening to continue: Fed funds 2.38% at end 2018; 3.38% end 2019

ECB to end QE this year and raise the refi. rate to 0.25% by end 2019

BOJ set to stay the course

Inflation

Sharp acceleration in inflation unlikely this year, but risks have risen as capacity constraints bite

Structural and cyclical factors point to an increase in underlying inflation pressures

Economic Growth

Firm growth – modestly above trend –to continue in 2018; soft start reflects more noise than signal

BUT as the cycle matures and financial conditions tighten, some moderation is likely in 2019

Lower Higher Easier TighterWeaker Stronger

Key Risks US-led trade war European politics Market-driven tightening of financial

conditions

Key Risks Can we trust the Phillips Curve? Uncertain labour market slack Oil price

Key Risks Market-driven tightening of financial

conditions would lessen the need for policy action

European politics

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Activity Dashboard: Which Scenario Will the Cycle Cut to Next?

Global Trade & IP GrowthGlobal Real GDP & PMI Proxy

Through April 30, 2018Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics and Markit

Growth Is Past the Cyclical Peak, And Trade Has Pulled Back

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

YoY

Perc

ent C

hang

e

Real GDP

PMI Proxy

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

12 13 14 15 16 17 18YoY

Perc

ent C

hang

e; 3

-Mth

Mov

ing

Aver

age

Industrial Production

World Trade

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Inflation Dashboard: Which Scenario Will the Cycle Cut to Next?

G7 Wage GrowthCPI Inflation

Left display through April 30, 2018; right display through March 31, 2018Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics and Markit.

Broad Inflation Measures Still Muted For Now, But Wages Climb

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

YoY

Perc

ent C

hang

e

EM

World

G70.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Yo

Y Pe

rcen

t Cha

nge

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8|CMO 3Q18

Through May 30, 2018Source: Haver Analytics

Global Liquidity Dashboard: Which Scenario Will the Cycle Cut to Next?Financial Conditions Tighten as Central Banks Normalize Policy

Global Central Bank Money Supply Growth

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

USD

Bn.

; 6-M

onth

Mov

ing

Ave

US Yield Curve: Recession Probability RisingUS 2–10s Yield Curve Spread

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 18Pe

rcen

t

US Recessions

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…Buoying Inflation ExpectationsLabour Market Tightens Further…US Unemployment Rate

Left display as of March 31, 2018; right displays as of June 1, 2018Historical analysis and current forecasts do not guarantee future results. Source: Citigroup, Haver Analytics, IHS Markit, Thomson Reuters and AB

Jobs/Wages Fuel Consumption…and (Creeping) InflationUS Growth Remains Solid

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Perc

ent

Realized Core PCE

High of Forecast Range

Low of Forecast Range0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Perc

ent

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Through June 29, 2018Source: Bloomberg

Slower Growth, Escalating Trade Tensions Prompt Earlier Policy Shift China Policy Easing Comes Earlier Than Expected

China Rates: Under Downward Pressure as Liquidity is Eased

China FX: No Appetite for Further Currency Basket Appreciation

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

7.492

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

2015 2016 2017 2018

Inde

x

CNY/USD(Inverted Scale)

CFETS Basket (Left Scale)

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

15

16

17

18

19

20

2015 2016 2017 2018In

dex

RRR (Left Scale)

10-year GovernmentBond Yield

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11|CMO 3Q18

Left display as of December 31, 2017; right display as of June 30, 2018Historical analysis and current forecasts do not guarantee future results. *Germany is adjusted for the impact of reunification.GDP is in US DollarsSource: Haver Analytics, World Bank and AB

2011 2018

Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT)

Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO)

QuantitativeEasing (QE)

Vulnerable Country(GDP)

Greece($0.2 Trillion)

Italy($1.9 Trillion)

Exposure of European Banks to Italy

Higher Lower

Real GDP per Capita*

This Time the ECB Has the Necessary Tools in Place to Intervene…Although Italy Is Not GreecePopulism, European-Style: Is a Full-blown Crisis à la 2011 Coming Back?

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

1999

= 1

00

Germany

Spain

France

Italy

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12|CMO 3Q18

As of March 31, 2018Historical analysis and current forecasts do not guarantee future results. Source: Haver Analytics, IHS Markit, Thomson Reuters Datastream and AB

Beyond Fundamentals: Structural and Policy-Based Inflation Tail Risk

Goods and Services Inflation

–5

–4

–3

–2

–1

0

1

2

3

4

5

93 94 96 98 99 01 03 04 06 08 09 11 13 14 16 18

Services

Durable Goods

Perc

ent

Inflation Backdrop

RearviewMirror

Past 5–10 Years

StrategicHorizonNext 2–5

Years

Secular Horizon5+ Years

Demographics

Globalization/Populism

Debt Overhang

Technology

Monetary Regime

Net Impact

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13|CMO 3Q18

As of June 30, 2018Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.Source Bloomberg, Cornerstone Macro, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Morningstar Direct, S&P, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and AB

Rising Earnings and Inflation, Plus Fed Tightening, Equals Lower P/Es

Strong Earnings Growth Historically Linked to Rising Inflationary Pressures

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

–50

–30

–10

10

30

50

70

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17P

rice IndexPer

cent

S&P 500—EPS Growth (Left Scale)

ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index

Fed Tightening

Rising Inflationary Pressures Have Led to Fed Tightening and P/E Contraction

Period1/31/94–2/28/95

5/31/99–5/31/00

5/31/00–7/31/06

12/16/15–06/30/18

Begin 14.9× 23.5× 16.5× 17.6×

End 12.6× 22.2× 14.0× 17.1×

Change –2.3 –1.3 –2.5 –0.5

Average change in P/E over the last four Fed tightening cycles: 1.7 P/E Points

P/Es have actually declined in 8 of the past 8 Fed tightening cycles

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14|CMO 3Q18

Through June 30, 2018Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.Treasury (TSY) is represented by Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasuries and High Yield (HY) by Bloomberg Barclays Global High Yield (Hedged to USD).Source: AB

Near-Term Volatility Is Likely in Rates and Credit Markets

Government and Credit Bonds Rarely Underperform at the Same Time

Today’s Environment Calls for a Balanced Approach

Cloudy Outlook Warrants Balance Between Rates and Credit Risks

–20

–15

–10

–5

0

5

10

15

20

–8 3

Qua

rterly

Hig

h Y

ield

Ret

urns

(Per

cent

)

Quarterly Treasury Returns (Percent)

“Normal”TSY = NegativeHY = Positive19% of the TimeBalance Works

“Normal”TSY = PositiveHY = Negative

24% of the TimeBalance Works

“Good Times”TSY = PositiveHY = Positive

51% of the TimeBalance Works

“Bad Times”TSY = NegativeHY = Negative5% of the Time Balance Doesn’t Work

Sources of Volatility:

Monetary policy normalization and tighter liquidity in DM—rates

Possible Inflation pressures—rates and credit

Corporate credit continues to move later in the credit cycle—credit

Increased geo-political risk (i.e., Italy and EM) —select rates, credit

Headlines around trade war—credit

GlobalRates

GlobalCredit

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15|CMO 3Q18

As of June 30, 2018Past performance does not guarantee future results. *Bar height might differ due to rounding. Global bonds hedged is represented by Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Hedged to USD and US bonds by Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio. †B/E: break-even.Source: Bloomberg Barclays and AB

Take a World View on Interest-Rate Exposure

Global Outperforms when US FallsUp vs. Down CaptureMarch 1990–June 2018 (Percent)*

2.2

–1.0

2.1

–0.7

Average QuarterlyReturn When

US Aggregate IndexWas Positive

Average Quarterly Return When

US Aggregate IndexWas Negative

US Aggregate Index Global Aggregate Index

Up Capture: 96%Down Capture: 66%

Select Opportunities Exist in Global Inflation-Linked BondsB/E Inflation for 10-Year Rates (Percent)†

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

12 13 6 15 12 16 6 18

US

Japan

Japan Inflation2018 Forecast

US Inflation2018 Forecast

Actively Managing Your Exposure to Avoid Troubled Areas is Key10-Year Bond Yields (Percent)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Italy

Spain

Germany

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16|CMO 3Q18

As of June 30, 2018Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.EM HC is represented by J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Index; EM Corp by J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index; and EM LC by J.P. Morgan Government Bond–Emerging Markets Global Diversified Index. Yields are sourced from the index’s sub-components. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio.Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan and AB

Some EM Opportunities Still Exist, But Selectivity is Increasingly Important

Technicals Remain Constructive with Much of Issuance Front-LoadedEM Net Issuance (USD Billions)

However, Near-Term EM Outlook Warrants Caution

Given Recent Volatility, Valuations Have Improved Somewhat

Rising rates in developed markets

Recent USD strengthening

Increased idiosyncratic and political risk in select countries

Trump’s Trade War

Some Countries in Recent Headlines:100

152

225

77

201

42

100

130

92 110

2015 2016 2017 YTD2018

2018Forecast

EM Corporate EM Sovereign4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

EM HardCurr.

EM Corp. EM LocalCurr.

YTW

Jan 2016 Dec 2017 Jun 2018

Turkey

Argentina

Brazil

Mexico

China

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17|CMO 3Q18

Source: AB

Biography

Guy Bruten joined AllianceBernstein (AB) in 2004 and is a member of the firm’s Global Economic Research team. In that role, he provides macro research coverage for a number of countries in the Asia Pacific region, and is also responsible for conducting thematic research—looking at the impact, for example, of demographic change, the commodity price supercycle and the global surge in populist politics on the outlook for economies and asset prices. Prior to joining AB, Bruten worked in economics and market strategy roles for Macquarie Bank’s Funds Management Group and for SBC Warburg. He started his career in the early 1990s at the Commonwealth Department of the Treasury in Canberra. Bruten holds a BEc from the University of Adelaide and a MEc from the Australian National University. Location: Melbourne

Guy Bruten

Chief Economist –Asia Pacific ex China

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18|CMO 3Q18

A Word About Risk

The information contained here reflects the views of AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates and sources it believes are reliable as of the date of this publication. AllianceBernstein L.P. makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data. There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed here may change at any time after the date of this publication. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. It does not take an investor’s personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument, product or service sponsored by AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates.

Important Risk Information Related to Investing in Equity and Short Strategies

All investments involve risk. Equity securities may rise and decline in value due to both real and perceived market and economic factors as well as general industry conditions.

A short strategy may not always be able to close out a short position on favorable terms. Short sales involve the risk of loss by subsequently buying a security at a higher price than the price at which it sold the security short. The amount of such loss is theoretically unlimited (since it is limited only by the increase in value of the security sold short). In contrast, the risk of loss from a long position is limited to the investment in the long position, since its value cannot fall below zero. Short selling is a form of leverage. To mitigate leverage risk, a strategy will always hold liquid assets (including its long positions) at least equal to its short position exposure, marked to market daily.

Important Risk Information Related to Investing in Emerging Markets and Foreign Currencies

Investing in emerging-market debt poses risks, including those generally associated with fixed-income investments. Fixed-income securities may lose value due to market fluctuations or changes in interest rates. Longer-maturity bonds are more vulnerable to rising interest rates. A bond issuer’s credit rating may be lowered due to deteriorating financial condition; this may result in losses and potentially default, or failure to meet payment obligations. The default probability is higher in bonds with lower, noninvestment-grade ratings (commonly known as “junk bonds”).

There are other potential risks when investing in emerging-market debt. Non-US securities may be more volatile because of the associated political, regulatory, market and economic uncertainties; these risks can be magnified in emerging-market securities. Emerging-market bonds may also be exposed to fluctuating currency values. If a bond’s currency weakens against the US dollar, this can negatively affect its value when translated back into US-dollar terms.

Bond Ratings Definition

A measure of the quality and safety of a bond or portfolio, based on the issuer’s financial condition, and not based on the financial condition of the fund itself. AAA is highest (best) and D is lowest (worst). Ratings are subject to change. Investment-grade securities are those rated BBB and above. If applicable, the Pre-Refunded category includes bonds which are secured by US government securities and therefore are deemed high-quality investment grade by the advisor.

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19|CMO 3Q18

Index Definitions

Following are definitions of the indices referred to in this presentation. It is important to recognize that all indices are unmanaged and do not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a mutual fund portfolio. Investors cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB mutual fund. Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index: Measure of global investment-grade debt from 24 local-currency markets; includes treasury, government-related, corporate

and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed- and emerging-market issuers.

Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Corporate Bond Index: Tracks the performance of investment-grade corporate bonds publicly issued in the global market and found in the Global Aggregate. (Represents global corporate on slide 1.)

Bloomberg Barclays Global High-Yield Bond Index: Provides a broad-based measure of the global high-yield fixed-income markets. It represents the union of the US High-Yield, Pan-European High Yield, US Emerging Markets High-Yield, CMBS High Yield and Pan-European Emerging Markets High-Yield indices.

Bloomberg Barclays Global High-Yield Corporate Index: A multi-currency measure of the global high-yield corporate debt market. The index represents the union of the US High-Yield, the Pan-European High-Yield, and the corporate sector of the Emerging Markets (EM) Hard-Currency High-Yield Indices. The high-yield and emerging-market sub-components are mutually exclusive. The Global High-Yield Corporate Index is a component of the Global High-Yield Index and subsequently a component of the Multiverse Index, along with the Global Aggregate, Euro Treasury High-Yield and EM Local Currency Government Indices.

Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury: Euro Bond Index: Includes fixed-rate, local-currency sovereign debt that makes up the Euro Area Treasury sector of the Global Aggregate Index. (Represents euro-area government bonds on slide 1.)

Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury: Japan Bond Index: Includes fixed-rate, local-currency sovereign debt that makes up the Japanese Treasury sector of the Global Aggregate Index. (Represents Japan government bonds on slide 1.)

Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index: A rules-based, market value–weighted index engineered for the long-term tax-exempt bond market. (Represents municipals on slide 1.)

Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index: A broad-based benchmark that measures the investment-grade, US dollar–denominated, fixed-rate, taxable bond market, including US Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities (MBS [agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs]), asset-backed securities (ABS), and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS).

Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index: Represents the corporate component of the Bloomberg Barclays US High-Yield Index. (Represents US high yield on slide 1.)

Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Bond Index: Measures the investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market and includes USD-denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility and financial issuers.

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20|CMO 3Q18

Index Definitions (continued)

Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index: Includes fixed-rate, local-currency sovereign debt that makes up the US Treasury sector of the Global Aggregate Index. (Represents US government bonds on slide 1.)

Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Inflation-Linked Bond Index: Measures the performance of the US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities market.

J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global: A benchmark index for measuring the total return performance of government bonds issued by emerging-market countries that are considered sovereign (issued in something other than local currency) and that meet specific liquidity and structural requirements. In order to qualify for index membership, the debt must be more than one year to maturity, have more than $500 million outstanding, and meet stringent trading guidelines to ensure that pricing inefficiencies don’t affect the index. (Represents emerging-market debt on slide 1.)

J.P. Morgan Government Bond-Emerging Markets Global Diversified Index: A comprehensive global emerging-market index of local government bond debt. To qualify, a country’s gross national income (GNI) per capita must be below the GNI per capita level that is adjusted yearly by the growth rate of the world GNI per capita, provided by the World Bank, for three consecutive years.

MSCI All Country World Index: A market capitalization–weighted index designed to provide a broad measure of equity-market performance throughout the world.

MSCI EAFE Index: A free float–adjusted, market capitalization–weighted index designed to measure developed-market equity performance, excluding the US and Canada. It consists of 22 developed-market country indices. (Represents EAFE on slide 1.)

MSCI Emerging Markets Index: A free float–adjusted, market capitalization–weighted index designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. It consists of 21 emerging-market country indices. (Represents emerging markets on slide 1.)

MSCI World Index: A market capitalization–weighted index that measures the performance of stock markets in 24 countries.

Russell 1000 Index: A stock market index that represents the highest-ranking 1,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index, representing about 90% of the total market capitalization of that index.

Russell 2000 Index: Measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the US equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. (Represents US small-cap on slide 1.)

Russell 2500 Index: A broad index featuring 2,500 stocks that cover the small- and mid-cap market capitalizations. The Russell 2500 is a market cap–weighted index that includes the smallest 2,500 companies covered in the Russell 3000 universe of US-based listed equities.

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21|CMO 3Q18

Index Definitions (continued)

S&P 500 Index: Includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the US economy. (Represents US large-cap on slide 1.)

S&P MidCap 400 Index: Provides investors with a benchmark for mid-size companies. The index measures the performance of mid-size companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.

S&P SmallCap 600 Index: Measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The index is designed to track companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are liquid and financially viable.

MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations, and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices, any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed or produced by MSCI.

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