CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG

Improvement of Improvement of the Dairy and Beef the Dairy and Beef

sub-module sub-module

Elasticity Next steps

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Livestock supply flows for EU countries and regions (90-99): improvement of the information system for all the animals activities, inclusion of COMEXT database.

Livestock net domestic production

Split up yields in low and high (MEAT, MILK)

Definition of supply elasticities for livestock

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

NEW CRONOS REGIO COMEXT EXPERT DATA

COMEXT.GMSCORRECT NEW CRONOS

MATCH COMEXT-NEW CRONOS

FLOW_ANIM.GMS

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

COWS

BULF

HEIF

HEIR

CAMR

CAFR

CAMF

CAFF

COWS

t t+1 t+2

COWS

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

t t+1 t+2

COWS COWS

BULF

HEIF

HEIR

CAMR

CAFR

CAMF

CAFF

•LEVL = Herd Size t-1

•Replacement and Discarded RATES

•Male and Female Calves Production (REGIO Herd Size)

•Same coefficients for DCOW and SCOW

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

t t+1 t+2

COWS COWS

BULF

HEIF

HEIR

CAMR

CAFR

CAMF

CAFF

•GROF,CALFt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If > 0)

•GROFt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,FCALt

•LEVLt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,FCALt + STCF t (If > 0)

•NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0)

•Use NUSE to redefine LEVL and GROF (for RCAL too)

•Estimation of NETF

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

t t+1 t+2

COWS COWS

BULF

HEIF

HEIR

CAMR

CAFR

CAMF

CAFF

•GROF,CALFt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If > 0)

•GROFt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,MCALt

•LEVLt = GROF,CALFt x COWS,MCALt + STCFt (If > 0)

•NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0)

•Use NUSE to redefine LEVL and GROF (for RCAL too)

•Estimation of NETF

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

MODELISATIONIntroduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

t t+1 t+2

COWS COWS

BULF

HEIF

HEIR

CAMR

CAFR

CAMF

CAFF

•GROF,RCALt = YBULt + YHEIt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If >0)

•GROFt = GROF,RCALt x COWS,FCALt

•LEVLt = GROF,YHEIt+1 + STCFt (If > 0)

•NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0)

•Redefine GROF

•Estimation of NETF

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

t t+1 t+2

COWS COWS

BULF

HEIF

HEIR

CAMR

CAFR

CAMF

CAFF

•GROF,RCALt = YBULt + YHEIt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If >0)

•GROFt = GROF,RCALt x COWS,MCALt

•LEVLt = GROF,YBULt+1 + STCFt (If > 0)

•NUSEt = GROFt – LEVLt - STCF t (If < 0)

•Redefine GROF

•Estimation of NETF

MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

t t+1 t+2

COWS COWS

BULF

HEIF

HEIR

CAMR

CAFR

CAMF

CAFF

•LEVLt = YCOWt+1 + STCFt (If > 0)

•GROFt = LEVLt + EXPLt – IMPLt + STCFt (If <0)

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

t t+1 t+2

COWS COWS

BULF

HEIF

HEIR

CAMR

CAFR

CAMF

CAFF

•LEVLt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

t t+1 t+2

COWS COWS

BULF

HEIF

HEIR

CAMR

CAFR

CAMF

CAFF

•LEVLt = SLGHt + EXPLt – IMPLt

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

MODELISATION

FATTENING PROCESSES: beef, heifers, sheep & pigs

HERD DIMENSION

SLGH

MEAT

LEVL = SLGH - IMPL + EXPL

LEVW = (SLGH - IMPL) + IMPL * α + EXPL * β

GROF = SLGT - IMPT + EXPT

Young animals

MODEL

O coefficient (meat yield), I coefficient (feed, …),

nutrients & GHGs output

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

LEVL SLGH IMPL EXPL= - +

LEVW =

SLGH

-

IMPL

+

IMPL x

(FINW -IMWT)

/ (FINW - INIW)

+

EXPL x

(EXWT -INIW)

/ (FINW -INIW)

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

MODELISATION

HEAD WEIGHT EXPL EXWT IMPL IMWT HEAD WEIGHTAT000 335,6 668,4 10,8 92,9 - - 317,0 707,5BL000 347,2 789,9 61,1 392,8 51,1 346,3 343,8 797,7DE000 2319,1 649,7 262,9 603,9 8,0 421,6 2286,6 658,9EL000 161,2 437,4 26,8 - 33,9 329,8 82,5 854,8ES000 957,0 492,2 1,1 496,0 24,3 239,2 996,1 472,8FI000 194,6 502,3 - 463,0 - - 194,6 502,3FR000 2050,2 644,9 608,8 399,5 23,4 449,9 1582,7 835,4IR000 941,5 666,2 253,4 620,0 3,1 17,8 912,2 687,6IT000 1781,6 614,6 18,0 605,3 411,3 451,3 2021,3 541,8NL000 300,5 764,2 6,8 614,6 95,9 517,7 353,2 650,2PT000 212,4 566,0 1,0 38,6 9,0 549,0 210,8 570,1SE000 242,8 554,7 0,1 128,2 - - 242,6 555,2UK000 1565,0 599,0 18,7 661,8 12,4 642,2 1567,5 598,1

LEVL.BULFMS

TRADE BULF LEVW.BULF

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Estimation of activity level and yields (light and heavy final weights) for adult cattle

Light and heavy final weights depend on genetics and production system

Scarce information and similar probabilities

Engineering and production system information: final weights (min-max), stock density, daily growth, and herd composition

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

STOCK DENSITY

DAILY GROWTH

HERD COMPOSITION

Max - ∑i pi ln (pi / qi)

where:i: number of support pointsp: posterior probabilitiesq: a priori probabilitiessum of pi and sum of qi equal to one

A Priori ProbabilitiesSupport Points

FINAL WEIGHTS

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Max H(p) = - ∑i ∑n pi,n ln (pi,n / qi,n)p

 s.t.∑n SLGHn,m E[MEATn] = SLGTm

E[MEATn] = ∑i SMEATi,n pi,n

∑n SLGHn,m = SLGHm

∑n IMPLn,m = IMPLm

∑n EXPLn,m = EXPLm

SLGHn = GROF.HEADn + PIMLn – PEXLn + ADJnwhere:n: number of adult cattle sub-categories (light and heavy final weight)m: number of adult cattle categories (beef and heifers)MEAT: estimated parameter (final carcass weight)SMEAT: possible outcomes (support points)ADJ: shift factor between adult cattle sub-categoriessum of pi and sum of qi equal to one

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

COWS

BEFL

HEIH

HEIR

CAMR

CAFR

CAMF

CAFF

COWS

t t+1 t+2

COWS

BEFH

HEIL

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

RESULTS FOR BEFH AND BEFL

LEVL BEEF IMPL EXPL LEVL BEEF IMPL EXPL LEVL BEEF IMPL EXPLAT000 324,9 371,2 0,0 10,8 285,2 390,3 0,0 0,0 39,6 234,1 0,0 10,8BL000 337,3 429,0 51,1 61,1 333,9 430,9 51,1 0,0 3,4 242,0 0,0 61,1DE000 2064,2 353,5 8,0 262,9 1642,1 384,4 7,9 262,9 422,0 231,7 0,0 0,0EL000 168,3 262,0 33,9 26,8 54,9 350,6 16,5 13,3 113,4 219,2 17,4 13,4ES000 980,2 262,4 24,3 1,1 321,6 350,7 0,0 1,1 658,6 219,3 24,3 0,0FI000 194,6 271,2 0,0 0,0 74,0 353,9 0,0 0,0 120,5 220,5 0,0 0,0FR000 1464,8 401,7 23,4 608,8 1337,6 416,7 23,4 276,4 127,2 244,0 0,0 332,4IR000 691,2 367,3 3,1 253,4 684,3 368,8 3,1 253,4 6,9 221,4 0,0 0,0IT000 2174,9 315,3 411,3 18,0 1640,9 346,7 390,2 18,0 533,9 217,9 21,0 0,0NL000 389,6 381,3 95,9 6,8 358,5 393,9 95,9 6,8 31,0 235,5 0,0 0,0PT000 220,5 306,5 9,0 1,0 126,6 366,7 9,0 1,0 93,9 225,3 0,0 0,0SE000 242,7 299,7 0,00 0,13 130,6 364,2 0,0 0,0 112,1 224,3 0,0 0,1UK000 1558,7 323,2 12,4 18,7 805,1 402,4 12,4 18,7 753,6 238,6 0,0 0,0

MSBULF BEFH BEFL

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

BEFL

HEIH

CAMR-L

CAFR-L

CAMF

CAFF

COWS

t t+1 t+2

COWS

BEFH

HEIL

CAFR-H

CAMR-H

COWSHEIR

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Split up male and female calves for rearing into light and heavy weight ones:CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-L, CAFR-H, CAMR-L, CAMR-H, CAFR.

A four stages system to assign calves to cows:

DCOW-HIGH-YIELD: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-L, CAMR-L, CAFR

DCOW-LOW-YIELD: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-H, CAMR-H, CAFR

SCOW: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-H, CAMR-H, CAFR

The gross male-female calves production, and the cows replacement rate are respected.

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

BEFL

HEIH

CAMR-L

CAFR-L

CAMF

CAFF

COWS

t t+1 t+2

DCOW-LDCOW-H

SCOW

BEFH

HEIL

CAFR-H

CAMR-H

COWSHEIR

Use the detailed calves production and the number of calves per cow

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

DCOL.MILK = DCOW.MILK x 0.6DCOH.MILK = (GROF.MILK - DCOL.MILK * DCOL.LEVL) / DCOH.LEVL

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

HEAD COMI HEAD COMI HEAD COMIDE000 5274 5384,3 2578,5 7635,7 2695,5 3230,6

IT000 2168 4945,8 935,7 7551,3 1232,3 2967,5

UK000 3249 5612,6 1542,9 8108,0 1706,1 3373,0

MSDCOW DCOH DCOL

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Use MS reproductive coefficients

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

FROM MS TO REGIONS

Estimate the regional trade: heads and weights

Estimate the regional LEVL according to production system:

FPMS,i : BREDMS,i = FPRU,i : BREDRU,i

where:MS = member stateRU = regioni = livestock fattening activityFP = length of the fattening period BRED = number of yearly production cyclesLEVL = animal activity levelHERD = herd size at the end of the year

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

FROM MS TO REGIONS

RS LEVW BEEF SLGH LEVL BEEFIT000 1902,2 294,7 2124,4 1723,3 325,3

IT110 353,9 296,7 383,6 323,6 324,4IT120 2,1 310,5 2,2 2,1 315,0IT130 1,4 404,5 1,1 2,1 261,2IT200 355,3 276,1 409,1 290,0 338,2IT310 11,5 297,0 12,4 10,5 324,2IT320 517,7 286,4 580,6 447,6 331,3IT330 45,5 298,4 49,1 42,0 323,3IT400 219,3 269,4 256,1 172,3 342,8IT510 41,5 296,1 45,1 37,8 324,8IT520 34,5 270,5 40,2 27,3 342,0IT530 56,9 250,3 68,4 39,9 356,7IT600 52,8 297,0 57,1 48,3 324,2IT710 27,7 295,9 30,1 25,2 325,0IT720 10,3 351,7 9,9 12,6 288,5IT800 38,0 378,9 34,7 52,5 274,0IT910 27,0 329,1 26,6 29,4 302,1IT920 10,9 341,1 10,6 12,6 294,7IT930 19,2 349,1 18,5 23,1 290,0ITA00 72,0 342,7 69,9 84,1 293,7ITB00 24,0 420,0 19,0 39,9 252,8

Beef activity level (.000 heads) and yields (carcass weight, kg /

head)

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SUPPLY ELASTICITIES

MEAT and MILK SUPPLY PRICE ELASTICITY:

LITERATURE SEARCH

DIFFERENT SUPPLY FUNCTIONS FORMS, USUALLY LINEAR (OLS)

- Tryfos: slaughtered heads in function of current livestock herd size, expected prices and feed costs;

- Nerlove and Fornari: supply meat (beef & heifers) in function of: final stocks, current and future prices valued with quasi-rational expectation;

- Moro and Canali: explanatory variables producer prices and feed cost

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SUPPLY ELASTICITIES

• OWN ESTIMATIONS: range of LT & ST elasticity through OLS linear regression

• TIME SERIES: FAOSTAT yearly data (EUROSTAT - CAPRI: dairy cows and price deflator)

• 4 LIVESTOCK• 5 COUNTRIES: same functional form• 2 FORMS tested for cattle and pork

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SUPPLY ELASTICITIES

model a)

 LEVL t = a + b1tHERDt + b2t PRICt-1 + b3t NTRDt + et

model b)

ln(LEVL)t= a + bt ln(PRIC)t-1+ et

where :

LEVL = slaughtered heads

HERD = herd size at the end of the year

PRIC = deflated meat production price

NTRD = animal net trade flow (import - export)

et ~N(0, 1)

SUPPLY ELASTICITY CATTLE, PORK

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SUPPLY ELASTICITIES

LEVL t = a + b1tYILDt + b2t PRICt-1 + b3t NTRDt + et

where :

LEVL = herd size (Eurostat, CAPRI)

YILD = production yield (Eurostat, CAPRI)

PRIC = deflated milk production price

NTRD = milk net trade (import – export)

et ~N(0, 1)

SUPPLY ELASTICITY DAIRY COWS

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CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SUPPLY ELASTICITIES

LEVL t = a + b1tHERDt + b2t PRICt-1 + et

where :

LEVL = slaughtered heads

HERD = herd size at the end of the year

PRIC = deflated meat production price

et ~N(0, 1)

SUPPLY ELASTICITY SHEEP

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SUPPLY ELASTICITIES

ELASTICITY MODEL (a)

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

Introduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

SUPPLY ELASTICITIES

COMPARISON MODEL (a) – MODEL (b)france germany ireland italy spain

MODEL a)average (90-96) 1,357 0,991 0,565 0,245

long term average 0,902 0,735 0,546 0,200

MODEL b)average (90-96) 1,100 1,057 0,058

long term average 0,979 0,995 0,056

france germany ireland italy spain

MODEL a)average (90-96) 0,278 0,231 0,113 0,348 0,529

long term average 0,285 0,246 0,074 0,223 0,446

MODEL b)average (90-96) 0,106 0,067 0,09 0,188

long term average 0,103 0,062 0,08 0,181

CATTLE

PORK

CAPRI CAPRI

CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003

FURTHER STEPSIntroduction Model LH Yields MS - REG Elasticity Next steps

• Elasticities: comparison with other models results

• LEVW for male and female rearing calves

• STCF for all the animals categories

• CE: import / export weights for light and heavy cattle

• Availability of official statistics on regional meat

• Livestock statistics: cover gaps and correct bugs