capturing the consequences of ongoing welfare reform: the ...sep 08, 2015 · image via: vedran...

Capturing the Consequences of Ongoing Welfare Reform:

The Case of California’s CalWORKs

NAWRS Conference

Atlanta, GA August 25, 2015

Image via Barbara Helgason / Fotolia Image Via: Vedran Vukoja AKA vepar5 /Fotolia

Introduction

Name Title Role on Project Lynn Karoly, Ph.D. Senior Economist RAND PI

Diana Lavery, M.A. Project Associate RAND Project Director

Name Title Role on Project Johannes (Hans) Bos, Ph.D. Vice President and Program Director AIR PI

Lori Turk-Bicakci, Ph.D. Senior Researcher AIR Project Director

CalWORKs The California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids (California’s TANF program)

California Senate Bill (SB) 1041

Instituted significant reforms to CalWORKs

Evaluation of the SB 1041 Reforms to California’s CalWORKs Program Conducted by RAND and American Institutes for Research (AIR)

CalWORKs Policy SB 1041 Represents a Significant Change

• Twin goals of legislation – Engage participants in work, education, and service activities early – Provide more flexibility in activity options

• Reforms to key components of CalWORKs – 48 month CalWORKs WTW time clock changed to 24 months of CalWORKs

WTW followed by 24 months of TANF – Decreased weekly work requirements for single parents – Adults with former young child exemption need to be re-engaged by county – Reinstated Cal-Learn for pregnant/parenting teens – Other (financial incentives, earned income disregard, etc.)

Current CalWORKs Policy Comparison to Other States

• Among highest income thresholds to qualify for TANF • Among more restrictive states due to time-limit policy • One of the few of states that provides benefits

indefinitely for children in need • Relatively high benefit levels and one of the most

generous financial work incentives • Alignment with many other states through elimination of

the core requirement during the first 24 months on aid

Challenges in Evaluating SB 1041 • Context in California in 2012:

– Improving economy – Affordable Care Act – Other competing efforts that county staff had to

accommodate

• Difficult to attribute changes to SB 1041

RAND and AIR’s Approach to Evaluating Policy Change What impact has SB 1041 had?

• Mixed methods – Interviews, surveys, fieldwork, administrative data collection

• Multi-level – CalWORKs participants, caseworkers, county leadership, state leadership, other stakeholders

The CalWORKs SB 1041 Evaluation

• Contract period July 2014 through Dec 2017

• Full state evaluation, with more intensive examination in six focal counties

• Yearly reports will – examine implementation of SB 1041 – assess impact of SB 1041 – recommend changes to the program

The CalWORKs SB 1041 Evaluation Research Questions

• Has SB 1041 provided greater flexibility in the services and activities available to participants?

• Has SB 1041 helped to remove barriers to participants’ employment?




• Has SB 1041 accelerated participants’ paths to self-sufficiency?

• Has SB 1041 improved the well-being of participant children and their families?






• How have the SB 1041 changes affected CalWORKs and related programs at the county level?

• Has SB 1041 affected California’s TANF annual Work Participation Rates?






• How have the SB 1041 changes affected CalWORKs and related programs at the county level?

• Has SB 1041 affected California’s TANF annual Work Participation Rates?

What improvements to CalWORKs Program are recommended?

Evaluation Design: Mixed Methods with Five Study Components

Process Study

County Operations Impact Study

Participant Tracking Study

Participant Status Study

Participant Impact Study

4

2

3

1

5

Evaluation Framework SB1041 DIRECTIVES

BY THE STATEIMPLEMENTATION

BY COUNTIESPARTICIPATION BY

PARTICIPANTS

Eligibility requirements Determine eligibility Participate in activities; receive assistance

Services and support Administer services and support Time limit reached

Benefits Deliver benefits Employment secured

OUTCOMES FOR FAMILIES & CHILDREN

★ Stable, gainful employment

★ Economic self-sufficiency

Process StudyProcess & County Operations Impact

Studies

Participant Status &Tracking Studies

Participant Impact Study

Data Collection

Study Component

State Key Informant Interviews

Focal County

Interviews and Focus

Groups

All–County Survey (ACS)

Adminis-trative Data

Participant Longitudinal

Survey (CalSES)

Current Population

Survey (CPS)

1. Process Study 2. County

Operations Impact Study

3. Tracking Study

4. Participant Status Study

5. Participant Impact Study

Data Analysis • Qualitative Analysis

– Document review of state and county communication – Identify key themes, challenges, and successes at the county level with

insights from site visits

• Quantitative Analysis – Data snapshots – Interrupted time series analysis with multiple entry cohorts – Hierarchical linear model (HLM) regression framework

• Triangulation

For More Information: First Evaluation Report: Evaluation of the SB 1041 Reforms to the California’s CalWORKs Program Available at the RAND Website: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR919.html

Future reports will be available by December of 2015, 2016, and 2017.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR919.htmlhttp://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR919.html

Discussion • What methods have you used to document

implementation of a new program? • What methods have you used to assess impact of

policy change?

APPENDICES

RAND and AIR Project Team Name Title Role on Project

Lynn Karoly, Ph.D. Senior Economist RAND PI

Robert Bozick, Ph.D. Senior Sociologist RAND Co-PI

Lois Davis, Ph.D. Senior Policy Researcher RAND Co-PI

Diana Lavery, M.A. Project Associate RAND Project Director

Beverly Weidmer, M.A. Survey Director RAND Survey Director

Name Title Role on Project

Johannes (Hans) Bos, Ph.D. Vice President and Program Director AIR PI

Sami Kitmitto, Ph.D. Principal Researcher AIR Co-PI

Lori Turk-Bicakci, Ph.D. Senior Researcher AIR Project Director

Cheryl Graczewski, M.A. Senior Researcher AIR Deputy Project Director

Gabriele (Gaby) Fain, M.A. Principal Researcher AIR Qualitative Team Lead

Historical Overview of California’s Welfare to Work Policy

• 1998: CalWORKs Implemented – California’s TANF program; “work first” model

• 2005: SB 1104 – Tightened participation requirements

• 2011: SB 72 – Tightened the time limit from 60 to 48 months, reduced income

disregard, suspended Cal-Learn

California’s Welfare to Work Program before SB 1041

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

July

-94

Janu

ary-

95Ju

ly-9

5Ja

nuar

y-96

July

-96

Janu

ary-

97Ju

ly-9

7Ja

nuar

y-98

July

-98

Janu

ary-

99Ju

ly-9

9Ja

nuar

y-00

July

-00

Janu

ary-

01Ju

ly-0

1Ja

nuar

y-02

July

-02

Janu

ary-

03Ju

ly-0

3Ja

nuar

y-04

July

-04

Janu

ary-

05Ju

ly-0

5Ja

nuar

y-06

July

-06

Janu

ary-

07Ju

ly-0

7Ja

nuar

y-08

July

-08

Janu

ary-

09Ju

ly-0

9Ja

nuar

y-10

July

-10

Janu

ary-

11Ju

ly-1

1Ja

nuar

y-12

Unem

ployment rate (%

)

Cas

eloa

d

Month and year

SB 1104 implemented

SB 72 implemented CalWORKs implemented

Unemployment rate

Caseload

PRWORA passage

January-13 SB 1041

Implemented

Key SB 1041 Policy Changes: Time Clock

Policy Pre–SB 1041 Post–SB 1041 Time Clock Structure 48 months of CalWORKs WTW

assistance, services, and activities

48 months of support in two consecutive periods: (1) 24 months of CalWORKs WTW services and

activities, followed by (2) 24 months of TANF work activities

Time Clock Initiation n.a. • Those starting the program on or after January 1, 2013 will follow the SB 1041 time clock structure

• Those in the program prior to January 1, 2013 with fewer than 24 months accumulated will follow the SB 1041 time clock structure

• Those in the program prior to January 1, 2013 with more than 24 months accumulated will follow the pre-SB 1041 48-month time clock structure

Key SB 1041 Policy Changes: Weekly Work Activity Requirements

Policy Pre–SB 1041 Post–SB 1041 Weekly Total Work Activity Requirements

• Single-parent: 32 hours • Two-parent: 35 hours

• Single-parent, child < six: 20 hours • Single-parent, child ≥ six: 30 hours • Two-parent: 35 hours

Weekly Core Work Requirements

• 20 of the 32 hours of the weekly work requirement have to be in core activities which include employment, on-the-job training, and vocational educational training

• No core requirement during the 24 month CalWORKs service period

• During the 24 month TANF service period, 20 hours of the weekly work requirement for single-parents and 30 hours of the weekly work requirement for two-parents have to be in core activities which include employment, on-the-job training, and vocational educational training

Key SB 1041 Policy Changes: Young Child Exemption and Cal-Learn

Policy Pre–SB 1041 Post–SB 1041 Young Child Exemption

• Short-term exemption: One adult per family excused from WTW activities if caring for one child under two years of age or two children under six years of age

• One lifetime exemption: One adult per family excused from WTW activities if caring for child under two years of age

• Adults exempt from the pre-SB 1041 young child exemption rules are not required to participate until the county re-engages them

Cal-Learn Program suspended Program reinstated April 1, 2013: Pregnant/parenting teens will no longer be under WTW rules, but under special Cal-Learn rules

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cas

eloa

d

Year

Two parent

Zero parent

All other family types

TANF timed out Safety Net

CalWORKs Caseload by Family Type

CalWORKs Caseload Process, Effective January 1, 2013

Illustrative Data Structure and Analysis File Structure for Multiple Entry Cohorts

�Capturing the Consequences of Ongoing Welfare Reform: �The Case of California’s CalWORKs��NAWRS Conference�Atlanta, GA�August 25, 2015IntroductionCalWORKs Policy�SB 1041 Represents a Significant ChangeCurrent CalWORKs Policy�Comparison to Other StatesChallenges in Evaluating SB 1041RAND and AIR’s Approach to Evaluating Policy ChangeThe CalWORKs SB 1041 Evaluation �The CalWORKs SB 1041 Evaluation �Research QuestionsThe CalWORKs SB 1041 Evaluation �Research QuestionsThe CalWORKs SB 1041 Evaluation �Research QuestionsThe CalWORKs SB 1041 Evaluation �Research QuestionsEvaluation Design: �Mixed Methods with Five Study Components�Evaluation FrameworkData CollectionData AnalysisFor More Information: DiscussionSlide Number 18APPENDICESRAND and AIR Project TeamHistorical Overview of California’s �Welfare to Work PolicyCalifornia’s Welfare to Work Program �before SB 1041Key SB 1041 Policy Changes: �Time ClockKey SB 1041 Policy Changes: �Weekly Work Activity RequirementsKey SB 1041 Policy Changes: �Young Child Exemption and Cal-LearnSlide Number 26Slide Number 27Illustrative Data Structure and Analysis File Structure for Multiple Entry Cohorts

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