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Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Crash boom bang Slide 2 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Agenda Status right now Background and LV forecasts Supply of ships The balance Conclusions Slide 3 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Port calls rapid decline Slide 4 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Ships laying idle Slide 5 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Production of cars, per region Slide 6 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Sales of cars, per region Slide 7 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Production sales, per region + 100% in 7 years !! Slide 8 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Ordering behavior, 1970 - 2008 1999-2003 191 ships avg: 4,764 ceu 2004-2008 451 ships Avg: 5,307 ceu Slide 9 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Orderbook 1.2M ceu = 38% fleet 9.3% pa 2004-2008 Vehicle carrier fleet changes (register data) Slide 10 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Vehicle carrier fleet forecast 5.3% forecast 2009-20132004-2008 Fleet growth 9.3 % yearly FORECAST2009-2013 Removals 647k ceu (+1,575%) Slide 11 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Vehicle carrier, Supply vs Demand, the Asia Indicator -32% +15% +18% The Asia Indicator illustrates the base demand for vehicle carriers capacity over time Slide 12 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Vehicle carrier, Supply vs Demand, the Asia Indicator, seaborne tonnes cars Slide 13 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Conclusions Average annual net fleet capacity growth 2009-2013: 5.3% Average annual demand growth 2009-2013: 2.9% Vehicle carriers (and terminals) under threat from containerization Can take cargo from conventional roro and general cargo Turning point: Late-2010 for cars, earlier for project cargoes modest levels to 2013 Slide 14 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Thank you! Niklas Bengtsson Niklas.bengtsson@lrfairplay.com

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