carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy
DESCRIPTION
Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy. Prof Ray Wills Director and Partner Duda&Wills Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia. Adoption of technology. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy.
Prof Ray Wills
Director and PartnerDuda&Wills
Chief AdviserSustainable Energy Association of Australia
Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia
![Page 2: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Adoption of technology
The natural turnover and retirement of appliances, buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest penetration of sustainable energy in the next ten years.
However, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’
The transition to sustainable energy, like many new technology shifts, will be more rapid with changes favoured by: policy measures and regulation; consumer sentiment; pricing advantage.
![Page 3: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Roger’s diffusion curve
![Page 4: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Technology adoption rates – US Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)
NY Times
![Page 5: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
![Page 6: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
![Page 7: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Technology adoption - manufacturers
Zoepf 2011
![Page 8: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Technology adoption rates
Can historic deployment rates be used to describe future technologies? Expect some similarities – just faster!
Small-scale deployment for approximately five years- exponential growth and an inflection point ten or more years after first application
Is there an opportunity for disruptive technology entry? Beginnings of disruptive innovation may be in market
innovations, Vehicle ownership model (eg Better Place) could rapidly change
the how and what is purchased Roof top solar – companies may own the panels on your roof
![Page 9: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Technology adoption rates
Marked decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication between
consumers - blogspace Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs Regulation Energy security
![Page 10: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010
How clean are Europe’s cars?
![Page 11: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Wake up and smell the roses
Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet Landline -> mobile -> smartphone Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) Retail shopping Boutique-> chain/mega ->
Internet Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> solar
![Page 12: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Global electricity investment growth
![Page 13: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Global renewables
![Page 14: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Renewable energy growth
Data IEA
![Page 15: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Global renewables 2013?
Data UNEP
![Page 17: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Global electricity …
![Page 18: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Global electricity growth - Europe
![Page 19: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Australian renewables 2011…
The transformation of Australia’s energy mix has begun – in 2011 new electricity generation construction 25% solar, 31% gas and 33% wind.
Coal-fired power currently 75% of Australia’s total generation - in 2011 only 14% of new investment was coal.
This is still behind the average world-wide investment in renewable energy – China’s economy 8 times larger than Australia, investment in renewables over 20 times larger!
![Page 20: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Australian electricity …
Data ABARES
![Page 21: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Australian electricity consumption 2012…
![Page 22: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Australian electricity consumption 2012…
Data AEMO
![Page 23: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Electricity market projections – WA
![Page 24: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Solar on Australian homes
![Page 25: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Solar on WA homes
City of Cockburn
![Page 26: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Sustainable energy and energy efficiency
Energy efficiency in all forms Distributed, renewable energy Known costs, resource life 1000++ years Stored energy in commodities, desal Energy storage key to:
improved energy delivery increased reliability reduced emissions
![Page 27: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Technology energy use
www.epri.com
![Page 28: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Global electricity growth
![Page 29: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Rapid change - Personal mobility
![Page 30: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Fuel efficiency, other energy sources Transport Energy storage key New technologies may be disruptive
Private transport
![Page 31: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Electric mass transit
![Page 32: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Commercialvehicles
Smith Newton electric truck Mega electric diesel hybridsLondon BusHaul Pak + EarthmoverMitsubishi FusoHonda prime moverOshkosh Military Vehicle
![Page 33: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Flying and floating fuels
February 25, 2008 – Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight
October 30, 2007 - U.S.A.F. Tests New Synthetic Fuel on Plane
February 14, 2011 – Qantas follows US Military to algae biofuels
September 13, 2011 – US Navy announces by 2016 Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels, is able to operate independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption
![Page 34: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Smart grids, smart houses (and farms) Integrated energy planning
Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators
![Page 35: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Green cities
Global Tianjin Eco-City China Ulsan Ecocity Korea Masdar City UAE
Australia City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 City of Melbourne Stirling City Centre, Perth City of Fremantle Yanchep – 2 x 100 000
Local government critical
![Page 36: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
www.seaaus.com.au
![Page 37: Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062806/56814f08550346895dbc9b07/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)