carbon countdown
TRANSCRIPT
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THE GLOBAL COMMONS INSTITUTE
THE CAMPAIGN FOR
CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE
CARBON COUNTDOWN
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CONTENTS
Approaching the point o no return
2 Global action on climate change
Contraction & Convergence the proportionate response
4 Corporate action on climate change
5 Carbon Countdown campaign
6 Global Commons Institute
7 Links
8 Climate risk assessment
9 C&C technical denition
0 C&C support
Insurance industr views o C&C
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Contraction & Convergence and the C&C logo are th e Trade Mark o GCI.
This is to protect the integrit o the concept.
DECLARATION FOR CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
has the objective o sae and stable greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere based on the principles o precaution and euit.
Contraction & Convergence (C&C) is the rightsbased, global
climate mitigation ramework, proposed to the United Nations b
the Global Commons Institute (GCI) to achieve that objective.
It enables greenhouse gas scenarios or a sae climate to be calculated and
universall shared b negotiation, enabling policies and measures to be
organised internationall at rates that avoid dangerous global climate change.
Rates o contraction and convergence ma be revised periodicall
as scientic understanding o the relationship between rising
concentrations and their impacts on our world develops.
C&C PROPOSES: -
(a) A ullterm contraction budget or global emissions
consistent with stabilising atmospheric concentrations o
greenhouse gases (GHGs) at a preagreed concentration
maimum deemed to be sae b the UNFCCC
(b) The international sharing o this budget as a predistribution o
entitlements that result rom a negotiable rate o linear convergenceto eual shares per person globall b an agreed date.
These entitlements will be internationall tradable.
We, the undersigned, endorse the above and encourage members o the
international communit to do likewise so that adoption o the Contraction
& Convergence strategic ramework is achieved as soon as possible.
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APPROACHING THE POINT OF NO RETURN
The scientic evidence is now overwhelming: global climate change
presents ver serious social, environmental and economic risks and it
demands an urgent global response. This was the message sent b leaders
o over one hundred and t global business organisations to the United
Nations Climate Change Conerence in Bali in December 2007.
The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had just published its
Snthesis Report, in conclusion o the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on the
science o climate change. It issued a warning that, with current climate changemitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG
emissions will continue to grow and that, without urgent action, anthropogenic
global warming could lead to impacts that are abrupt or irreversible.
The IPCC has sent a clear and uneuivocal message to us all: we are
not doing enough soon enough to avoid dangerous climate change
and time is o the essence. James Hansen, one o the worlds leading
authorities on climate change, has warned that the Earths climate
is nearing a point o no return beond which it will be impossible to
avoid climate change with ar ranging undesirable conseuences.
We must have a global agreement on emissions control that is sucient to solve
the problem aster than we are creating it. Unless we do, sustainable development
is impossible. Concentration and emissions reduction targets must be embodied
in an international agreement ramed to meet the objective o the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) i the markets
and new technolog are to become the mainspring o the new lowcarbon
econom. In the absence o this agreement, we will continue to struggle under
the greatest market ailure ever seen diagnosed in the Stern Review o 2006.
Contraction & Convergence (C&C) is the oundation o a remed
or this ailure. With this strategic ramework, it will be possible
to secure a sae and stable level o GHG concentrations in the
atmosphere and avert the greatest threat acing humanit.
CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE
C&C is ounded on IPCC climate science and embraces the UNFCCC
principles o euit, precaution and sustainabilit. It has wide
international support amongst businesses, proessional bodies, academic
institutions, aith groups, national, regional and local governments.
C&C schedules a global reduction o emissions (contraction) that keeps CO2
concentrations rom rising beond an agreed sae level. It proposes emission
entitlements or ever countr and a scheduled convergence to eual per
person entitlements b an agreed date. In this wa, convergence reduces
the carbon shares o the developed overemitting countries sharpl until
the converge with the (temporaril rising) shares o developing underemitting countries. The latter will have the right to sell their surplus carbon
shares to wealthier nations. Carbon emissions trading will encourage rapid
investment in technolog and inrastructure or lowcarbon energ.
C&C orms the basis or the comprehensive United Nations
agreement that corporate leaders are demanding. It is ull
UNFCCCcompliant, giving us the capabilit to:
Constrain the level to which GHG concentrations and the
conseuential damages will rise in the uture.
Bring together developed and developing countries under
a common ullterm action plan.
Address the worsening asmmetr o global economic
development.
CARBON COUNTDOWN CAMPAIGN
Carbon Countdown is an
international campaign to avert
dangerous rates o climate
change. It ocuses corporate
support or Contraction &
Convergence (C&C) on the
UNFCCC decisionmaking
process throughout the
present critical period o
negotiation. Corporate leadersare called on to endorse the
campaign on behal o their
organisations and to encourage
others to join as well.
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The Carbon Countdown international campaign ocuses
corporate support or C&C on the UNFCCC decisionmaking
process throughout the current critical negotiations.
The campaign displas the C&C logo and seeks the commitment
o organisations carring the logo to propagate the case or C&C
b endorsing the C&C Declaration shown on page our.
The campaigns essential message is that treating climate change as a global
emergenc is now long overdue and responding proportionatel is vital;
that it is imperative to go beond the merel aspirational character o the
current UNFCCC debate and ocus on the rationale or solving the problem
aster than we are creating it. Declaring or C&C demonstrates this.
CORPORATE LEADERSHIP AND SUSTAINABILITy
The science is clear that the uture o our societ is at risk. Climate damages
are alread growing at twice the rate o the econom. This has been
described as the biggest market ailure in histor and our common uture
securit and prosperit are increasingl vulnerable. To correct this we must
start making deep cuts in our emissions within the net ve to ten ears in
an internationall coordinated manner and this will see the start o what
has been termed the biggest inrastructural change in human histor.
However, individual and collective actions to mitigate climate change will remain
inadeuate unless we enact completel the ullterm international agreement
proposed b the UNFCCC to which our governments are signatories. There is a
real and growing danger that an local successes are hostage to global ailure. Our
corporate social responsibilit and sustainable development programmes, indeed
our own organisations and institutions themselves, are compromised b this.
We could have as little as t ears let to reduce our carbon emissions to
netero globall to achieve the ullterm objective o the UNFCCC. Whatever
the rate, this will inevitabl reuire a complete contraction and convergence
event or greenhouse gas emissions i we are to achieve the objective. With so
little time let, we can no longer aord the aspirational patchwork approachollowed so ar b man powerul policmakers, their advisors and others.
Corporate leaders need a clear and rational ramework or targets and the
enabling measures now needed in order to lead their organisations along
the right path. Corporate leaders are justied in demanding a timel and
proportionate international response rom governments. The understand
markets and their potential or driving a lowcarbon econom. The are in a
strong position to infuence government policmakers and convince them
o the need or a global ramework within which the markets must operate.
Corporate leaders have a dut o care to act and supporting the Carbon
Countdown campaign enables them to demonstrate this collectivel.
Those who are seen to act now in this wa, show international leadership
or their organisations. The will set an eample with clear insight
and strong ethical standards or organisations everwhere.
B supporting the Carbon Countdown campaign the emerging coalition
o subscribers ocus this infuence. In turn, the campaign supports its
members b giving wide visibilit to this competence and their commitment
to it. Campaign reports and promotions will displa their identities to UN
organisations, national governments, trade and proessional bodies and
man others around the world, helping to demonstrate that it is in ever
ones interest so to act i continuing market ailure is to be overcome.
GLOBAL ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
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2(UNFCCC) was agreed b 65 governments in 992, with the objective
o halting the rising concentration o greenhouse gas (GHG) in the
atmosphere to avoid dangerous rates o climate change.
The Global Commons Institute (GCI) has been a contributor to the UNFCCC process
since its inception. The Institute is the originator o Contraction & Convergence
(C&C), its proposed strategic ramework or climate change mitigation. C&C has
wide international support amongst businesses, proessional bodies, academic
institutions, aith groups, national, regional and local governments and others.
Governments who are signatories o the UNFCCC have an obligationto compl with the Convention. As members o the Conerence
o the Parties, the must determine a sae GHG stabilisation
level and the associated emissions reduction pathwas.
UNFCCC compliance thereore reuires nite answers to the uestions: what
is a sae GHG concentration value or the atmosphere? and what is the scale
o the ullterm emissions contraction event reuired to achieve it?. Unless we
accept a globall shared commitment not to eceed that sae concentration
number, the probabilit increases that our separate eorts to avoid dangerous
rates o climate change will remain collectivel too little too late.
ARE WE DOING ENOUGH SOON ENOUGH?The Koto Protocol, based on the IPCC Second Assessment Report o
995, does not target a maimum level o concentrations. It includes
onl si o the worlds twelve largest emitting nations and epires at the
end o 202. An CO2 emissions avoided under Koto have alread been
outweighed b increases in carbon accumulating in the atmosphere at
an accelerating rate, due to changes in the climate sstem as a whole.
The European Union has gone beond its Koto commitment b
targetting 200% emissions reduction b 2020 and a 6080%
reduction b 2050. As with Koto, these unilateral reductions cannot
lead to a sae and stable level o global concentrations.
The UK governments Climate Change Bill [2007/8] targets a unilateral60% emissions reduction below 990 levels b 2050. This is based on the
science o the IPCC Second Assessment Report o 995 and a notional
level o concentrations o 550ppmv CO2. The target is under review.
The US did not rati the Koto Protocol, nor has the ederal government set
an targets or emissions reduction. However, individual states have taken the
initiative. Caliornia has set a unilateral target o 25% reduction in emissions b
2020 and about twent other states, along with a number o Canadian provinces,
have signed agreements to reduce emissions b various amounts. More than 700
US cities have signed an agreement to meet or beat the Koto targets b 202.
Australia, ollowing the election o a new government in
November 2007, has now ratied the Koto Protocol.
These planned actions will make no signicant contribution to solving
the problem without global targets. At best the represent a statement
o intent, but urgent urther action is reuired. Meanwhile, the position
is deteriorating rapidl. Because o weakening carbon sinks, analsis now
indicates that stabilising GHG concentrations in the atmosphere below the
level that prevents dangerous rates o climate change, reuires a rate o
overall emissions control that is aster than was previousl assessed. We are
now advised that we might have onl the net 50 ears to reduce human
GHG emissions to ero globall (IPCC AR4 and Hadle Centre, 2007).
[See GCI IPCC AR4 http://www.gci.org.uk/Animations/BENN_C&C_Animation.ee]
As the original authors o the UNFCCC understood at the outset, embracing
the issue o a sucient and proportionate response to climate change is
undamental to the whole global engagement. We must have a global
agreement on emissions control that is sucient to solve the problem aster
Unless we accept
a globall shared
commitment not
to eceed that sae
concentration number,
the probabilit increases
that our separate eorts
to avoid dangerousrates o climate change
will remain collectivel
too little too late.
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than we are creating it. Unless we do, sustainable development is impossible.
The opportunit still eists to create such an agreement or acceptance b the
UN meeting scheduled or Copenhagen at the end o 2009, to replace Koto in
202. It must be based on current climate science and have global support.
TALKS ABOUT TALKS
Toda, over teen ears ater the UNFCCC was agreed, eorts to this end
are demonstrabl inadeuate and the danger o runawa rates o global
climate change taking hold is mounting. We are still ar rom agreeing a sae
level o concentrations, rom which all else stems. Until ver recentl, therewas no agreement in principle to global emissions reduction on an basis.
The G8 summit in Heiligendamm in June 2007 took a promising step
orward. The US and ve growing economies, China, India, Brail,
Meico and South Arica all accepted or the rst time the principle
o an international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
None o these countries is bound b the Koto Protocol.
In September 2007, when mediating between supporters and opponents o
the Koto Protocol, the German Government went urther b proposing the
Contraction & Convergence approach as the basis o the postKoto agreement.
At the Bali conerence (UNFCCC COP) in December 2007, the worldsnations agreed to sign up to a deal setting out a two ear road map to a
new treat to replace the Koto Protocol, due to be agreed in Copenhagen
in December 2009. Developed countries accepted that deep cuts will be
needed in their emissions, while developing countries agreed to undertake
measurable, reportable and veriable mitigation o theirs. Although no rm
targets or commitments are included, it is the rst time that industrialised
and developing countries, including the US, China and India, have jointl
signed up to an undertaking to act together to control their emissions.
At the G8 meeting in Japan in Jul 2008, G8 leaders rearmed commitment
to reaching a global agreement in the UNFCCC process b 2009. The seek
to consider and adopt in the UNFCCC negotiations, the goal o achievingat least 50% reduction o global emissions b 2050, recognising that mid
term goals and national plans are reuired to achieve this. Leaders also
at the summit rom Brail, China, India, Meico and South Arica want the
G8 countries to commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions b 80% to
95% below 990 levels b 2050. The also want developed countries to
commit to a mediumterm target o a 25% to 40% cut below 990 levels b
2020. The uestion remains: can these dierences be resolved in time?
CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE -
THE PROPORTIONATE RESPONSE
Contraction & Convergence is GCIs proposed UNFCCCcompliantclimate mitigation strateg or an euitable solution to cutting
carbon emissions through global collective action.
The ultimate objective o the UN climate treat is sae and stable greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere and C&C starts with this. C&C recognises
that subject to this limit, we all have an eual entitlement to emit greenhouse
gas to the global atmosphere, simpl because continuing its globall uneual
use will make it impossible to get the global agreement needed or success. The
Koto protocol cannot be the basis o this success because it is not sciencebased
and, because o divergent national interests, it does not include all countries.
Scientists have advised on the sae concentration o CO2 in the atmosphere
and on the global cap on emissions necessar to achieve it. A level o 450
parts per million has until recentl been regarded as the upper limit orkeeping under the maimum global temperature increase o 2 degrees
centigrade above the preindustrial average. A sciencebased limit must
be set b international agreement within the UNFCCC process.
C&C BASICS
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From inception o a global agreement, C&C schedules the mandator annual global contraction
(reduction o emissions) that keeps CO2 concentrations rom rising beond the agreed sae level.
This rate o contraction must be periodicall adjusted to take account o the increasing release
o greenhouse gases caused b climate warming that accelerates the reduction o sinks and
collapse o the planets ecosstems, such as oldgrowth rain orests and peatlands.
C&C also proposes emission entitlements to ever countr. While starting with current emissions,
it proposes a scheduled convergence to eual per person entitlements or everone on the planet
b an agreed date. This wa, convergence reduces the carbon shares o the developed overemitting
countries sharpl until the converge with the (temporaril rising) shares o developing under
emitting countries. The latter will be able to sell their surplus carbon shares to wealthier nations. With
emissions trading subject to this, rapid investment in renewable energ will be encouraged.
The date b which this eual per person entitlement is achieved is negotiable. However, justice suggests the
sooner the better as the poorer countries, which are most immediatel vulnerable to and least responsible
or creating climate change, need a mechanism that addresses both climate change and povert.
C&C is ounded on IPCC climate science and embraces the UNFCCC principles o sustainabilit, euit
and precaution. It holds the sciencepolic content together as a unit; sciencebased on the contraction
side o the argument and rightsbased or constitutional on the political side o the argument. C&C is
in eect a bill o rights; it plots a ullterm event or achieving eual per capita emissions rights globall
(Convergence), governed b the overall emissions limit over time that stabilises the atmosphere
concentration o GHG at a sae value (Contraction). It is the proportionate response to climate change.
C&C captures the UNFCCC process in a structure o reconciliation. From this it becomes possible to go
beond the merel aspirational character o the current UNFCCC debate, to communicating a rationale
and a constitutional calculus. A uller technical denition o C&C is given on Pages 202.ENABLING GLOBAL COLLECTIVE ACTION
C&C overcomes the stando where a onesided agreement such as Koto is not an agreement that
will ield a complete solution. It recognises that separate development is not sustainable development.
It provides the oundation or uniing developed and developing countries under a common plan to
contract and converge on eual per capita emissions. The will meet in the middle, as developed countries
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emissions reduce and developing countries emissions rise, along a
path to a sae and sustainable level o GHG concentrations.
With the integrated C&C approach, we can more clearl dene the challenge
within a nite calculus o collective responsibilit, and sta ocused on
the imperative o solving the problem aster than we are creating it.
EqUITy AND SURVIVAL
It is clear that the global majorit most damaged b climate change are the poor
in developing countries who bear least responsibilit or damaging emissions.C&C addresses this worsening asmmetr o global economic development, or
Epansion and Divergence, at the same time as helping us mitigate climate
change. It creates a sustainable basis on which to resolve this ineuit.
PREVENTING RISING CLIMATE DAMAGES
According to the reinsurers, the weatherrelated damages trend is
growing at twice the rate o the global econom. It is possible that we ma
need to contract emissions to ero globall b 2050 i we are to stabilise
atmosphere GHG concentrations at a level that prevents change accelerating
uncontrollabl. This is projected b the latest climate modelling results
rom the UK Governments Hadle Centre, published in the IPCC Fourth
Assessment. With C&C, we have the opportunit to eercise direct control
over our GHG emissions, and thereb constrain the level to which GHG
concentrations and the conseuential damages will rise in the uture.
A FRAMEWORK-BASED MARKET
The Koto Protocol seeks to interpose a partial and random marketbased
ramework in support o the UN Convention. But such an evolutionar
response to its objective and principles is guesswork b denition. There is
no evidence to support claims that incremental activit at the margins will
collectivel generate a sucient response ast enough to be eective. This
approach has obscured the global objective o sae and stable concentrations
and the urgent need or a trajector to this objective b design.
We must put rational principle beore epedient practice in order that theormer guides the latter. This will make possible the rameworkbased market
that is reuired, with the potential or a eroemissions econom in a structure
o convergence. It corrects and compensates or the asmmetric consumption
patterns o the past, while averting dangerous rates o climate change.
C&C orms the basis or the ambitious international and comprehensive, legall
binding United Nations agreement that corporate leaders are demanding.
Under this agreement, it will be possible or governments to introduce
enabling measures or a lowcarbon econom, with the abilit to manage our
perormance against integral emissions targets. We will then have a clear and
reliable path towards a sae and sustainable level o GHG concentrations.
CORPORATE ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGEPublic awareness o the threat o climate change is increasing rapidl
through media eposure, public meetings and events and the work o
man dedicated campaigning organisations and groups, both local and
national. This enlightenment is set to continue indenitel, reinorced b
behavioural change in energ use, reccling and other practical initiatives.
In 2006, the G8 Roundtable o Business Leaders at the World Economic
Forum issued a memorandum stating: Companies cannot determine the
scale o needed investment without a stabilisation threshold or greenhouse
gas concentrations. The shortterm patchwork o the Koto Protocol is not
costeective. A global longterm, marketbased polic ramework in a newpartnership with China, India, Brail, South Arica and Meico is needed.
More recentl, the Corporate Leaders Group on Climate Change, including
leaders o over 50 global companies, has called or a sucientl
ambitious international and comprehensive, legallbinding United4
It is possible that we
ma need to contract
emissions to ero
globall b 2050 i
we are to stabiliseatmosphere GHG
concentrations at a
level that prevents
change accelerating
uncontrollabl.
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Nations agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that will provide
business with the certaint it needs to scale up global investment in
low carbon technologies (Financial Times 0 November 2007).
CURRENT SUSTAINABILITy POLICy AND PRACTICE
Man organisations are committed to rigorous environmental policies
addressing climate change, in response to growing public awareness
and through a sense o public dut. The have also discovered that
there are new opportunities arising rom these good practices.
Some have been ollowing voluntar codes o practice since the
990s, as part o Corporate Social Responsibilit (CSR) and Sustainable
Development programmes. Guidance is available rom government, trade
and proessional bodies. There are more specialised services addressing
carbon ootprint reduction, carbon disclosure and auditing.
The practice o osetting is in common use, although its
contribution to emissions reduction is uncertain. There are as et ew
standards and urther regulation will probabl be reuired.
New methods and techniues are being developed to deal with embedded
carbon. Product lie ccle assessments are being developed on a pilot basis.
These are intended to make it possible to account or carbon through complesuppl chains, including the crossing o national or market boundaries. The could
make an essential contribution in uture to carbon accounting and attribution.
The immense corporate eort being made to reduce emissions is
evidenced b the published records o the Global Reporting Inde
(GRI), the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) and others like them.
These initiatives are bringing new opportunities and improved competitiveness
or those engaged in them, but are the helping to solve the climate problem?
DO THE NUMBERS ADD UP?
There are serious limits on the contribution to global emissions reduction bthese means. We cannot know the impact o our eorts without having an
ultimate global target or GHG concentrations and mutuall agreed emissions
reduction trajectories or achieving this. The Stern Review emphasised
that a target range o concentrations would cruciall anchor a global price
or carbon that will provide markets with the necessar price signal. This
signal would refect our progress against global emissions targets.
These targets must be embodied in an international agreement ramed
to meet the UNFCCC objectives i the markets and new technolog
are to become the mainspring o the new lowcarbon econom.
Under this agreement, governments will be able to legislate or meaningulnational targets that aggregate to common global targets. The will also
be able to introduce appropriate measures, such as taation, regulation
and cap and trade, to help us achieve them. This will provide the level
plaing eld we need or our individual and collective eorts to count.
WHAT MORE CAN BE DONE?
More and more organisations are recognising the need or an
internationall agreed global ramework. Their leaders understand that
we cannot solve the problem without one. The are concerned that their
sustainabilit policies might be compromised and their considerableeorts to reduce emissions could count or nothing in the long run.
Their concern will be the greater or IPCCs warning that the shortall
in current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable
development practices could lead to damaging climate impacts that
Companies cannot determine
the scale o needed investment
without a stabilisation
threshold or greenhouse gasconcentrations. The short
term patchwork o the Koto
Protocol is not costeective,
a global longterm, market
based polic ramework in a
new partnership with China,
India, Brail, South Arica
and Meico is needed
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are abrupt or irreversible. However, there are signs o a more proactive
approach being urged b organisations who are leaders in their eld.
Calls b the G8 Roundtable and the Corporate Leaders Group
on Climate Change or a legallbinding United Nations
agreement were a promising start.
The FTSE organisation has announced that rom 2008, eligibilit or inclusion
in the FTSE4Good series o indices will be epanded to include climate change.
FTSE4Good is designed to measure the perormance o companies that
meet globall recognised corporate responsibilit standards. Its constituents
number about seven hundred major enterprises worldwide. FTSE have
recognised that the previous criteria were not set at a level compatible
with the substantial emissions reductions epected to be necessar to
stabilise atmospheric GHG concentrations at a sustainable level. Instead,
the refected what was possible or leading companies within the then
current regulator and business environment. In uture, as international
agreements, governments policies and corporate responses mature, the
criteria will realign with the demands o longterm sustainabilit.
A ke principle o the new criteria is that companies should participate in
strengthening public polic rameworks to address climate risk and reduce
GHG emissions. Further, the are urged to demonstrate public polic leadershipb active advocac o public polic initiatives, including binding national
and international targets, to reduce GHG emissions over the appropriate time
rame in order to achieve an acceptable atmospheric CO2 concentration.
As long ago as 2002, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) declared
that the international political process had been slow to grapple with the
climate change issue, and the business communit could legitimatel seek
to infuence policmakers towards more courageous decisions. The UNEP
Finance Initiative was ormed to work with the nancial sector in addressing
this problem along with other environmental and social considerations.
UNEP FI called or higher priorit to be given to longrange emissions targets
through the adoption o an approach like Contraction & Convergence.
Since then, support or C&C has continued to grow strongl whilst the political
process has hardl moved on. The 2007 Bali agreement is little more than a
statement o intent b policmakers to make some o those courageous
decisions b 2009. The will need all the help and encouragement the can get.
CARBON COUNTDOWN CAMPAIGN
GCI is conducting a global campaign or adoption o Contraction & Convergence
as the UNFCCCcompliant strategic ramework or combating dangerous climate
change. The campaign will displa the C&C logo and will seek commitment on
the part o organisations carring the logo to propagate the case or C&C. Webelieve that corporate leaders have an important part to pla in determining
how the global communit addresses climate change. Moreover, government
will depend on the organisations those leaders represent to contribute greatl to
achievement o the ambitious national and international objectives that ollow.
The campaign is open to a wide range o organisations including:
business, proessional bodies, academic institutions, local
government, health services, NGOs and man others.
OBJECTIVES OF THE CAMPAIGN
The global communit continues to generate dangerous rates o global climate
change aster than it acts to avoid it. The international challenge is to reverse this.
The campaign supports the overall GCI objective o establishing C&C
at the core o government climate change strateg in the UK and
internationall, leading to ormal adoption b the UN and its members.
The specic objectives are to:5
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Promote awareness o Contraction & Convergence, etending
and ormalising the constituenc o support
Enlist and support organisations that commit to campaigning
or C&C
Encourage those organisations to adopt the highest standards
o carbon reduction
Support GCIs ongoing research in climate change risk
assessment and mitigation, as part o the UNFCCC process.
THE DECLARATION
Corporate leaders are invited, on behal o their organisations, to
sign the Contraction & Convergence Declaration shown below.
The organisation will agree to:
Support Contraction & Convergence as the ormal basis o
UNFCCC negotiations or a global agreement on climate,
Be entered on an open global C&C register,
Inormall advocate the Declaration to others within a sector
relevant communit,
Suppl eecutive level signature endorsing these conditions
and the Declaration.
The Global Commons Institute will:
Maintain a public register o signator organisations
Publish periodic research and surve materials related to
climate change issues and the campaign
Keep the UNFCCC and other relevant bodies periodicall
updated with progress
Inorm elected political representatives, orming crosspart
consensus on climate change polic, o progress in developing
the C&C constituenc.
Organisations can also choose to displa the C&C logo on house media,
under licence.
The term Contraction & Convergence and the C&C logo are the Trade Mark
o GCI. This is to protect the integrit o the concept and prevent dangerous
compromise that places irrational aspiration above rational principle. The
pressure to compromise in this wa will increase as negotiations proceed.
The Koto Protocol is an eample; it has obscured the global objective o aclearl uantied sae and stable level o concentrations and the need or a
trajector to this b design. What ollows in 202 must be t or this purpose.
GCI is conducting a
global campaign oradoption o Contraction
& Convergence as the
UNFCCCcompliant
strategic ramework or
combating dangerous
climate change.
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THE GLOBAL COMMONS INSTITUTE
PARTICIPATION IN THE UNFCCC PROCESS
The Global Commons Institute is a London based notorprot organisation
ounded ater the UNs Second World Climate Conerence in 990. Since then
it has contributed to the work o the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
GCI made signicant contributions to the original development o the UN
Convention which was eventuall agreed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro
in June 992. Its objective was dened as stabilising the rising greenhousegas concentration o the global atmosphere. Its principles o euit and
precaution were established in international law. Climate scientists had
previousl shown that a deep overall contraction o GHG emissions rom
human sources is a prereuisite to achieving the objective o the UNFCCC.
Negotiations to achieve this contraction began in 995, administered
b the speciall created UNFCCC Secretariat. At the reuest o the
IPCC, rom 992 to 995 GCI contributed analsis highlighting the
worsening asmmetr, or Epansion and Divergence, o global economic
development. It became clear that the global majorit most damaged
b climate change were not those who were causing the damaging GHG
emissions. GCI developed the Contraction & Convergence model o utureemissions to provide a sustainable basis or resolving this ineuit.
Negotiations or the Koto Protocol to the UNFCCC ran rom 995 until
997. In December 997 and shortl beore the withdrew rom these
negotiations, the USA representatives stated, C&C contains elements or
the net agreement that we ma ultimatel all seek to engage in.
Since then C&C has been widel reerenced in the debate on achieving
the UNFCCC objectives. However, there has been no signicant
progress on a global agreement or the prevention o dangerous
climate change since Koto was rst penned over ten ears ago.
GCI has continued to gain international support or C&C rom UN
organisations, national governments, business, academic and proessional
institutions as well as man others, as a suitable basis or a ullterm
UNFCCCcompliant agreement (see Section 0, C&C Support).
CLIMATE RISK RESEARCH
6
DECLARATION FOR CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
has the objective o sae and stable greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere based on the principles o precaution and euit.
Contraction & Convergence (C&C) is the rightsbased, global
climate mitigation ramework, proposed to the United Nations b
the Global Commons Institute (GCI) to achieve that objective.
It enables greenhouse gas scenarios or a sae climate to be calculated and
universall shared b negotiation, enabling policies and measures to be
organised internationall at rates that avoid dangerous global climate change.
Rates o contraction and convergence ma be revised periodicall
as scientic understanding o the relationship between rising
concentrations and their impacts on our world develops.
C&C PROPOSES: -
(a) A ullterm contraction budget or global emissions
consistent with stabilising atmospheric concentrations ogreenhouse gases (GHGs) at a preagreed concentration
maimum deemed to be sae b the UNFCCC
(b) The international sharing o this budget as a predistribution o
entitlements that result rom a negotiable rate o linear convergence
to eual shares per person globall b an agreed date.
These entitlements will be internationall tradable.
We, the undersigned, endorse the above and encourage members o the
international communit to do likewise so that adoption o the Contraction
& Convergence strategic ramework is achieved as soon as possible.
2
4
5
6
7
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GCI is committed to ongoing research into climate risk assessment. When the
IPCC published its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007, it included or the
rst time coupled modelling or emissions control scenarios alongside the
uncoupled modelling that has been shown in its Assessment Reports since 994.
Coupled AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) used
b the UKs Hadle Centre are the most comple climate models in use,
consisting o an Atmosphere General Circulation Model (AGCM) coupled to
an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM). Some recent models include
the biosphere, carbon ccle and atmospheric chemistr as well. AOGCM
modelling introduces the eects o positive eedbacks rom carbon sinks
and can be used or the prediction and rate o change o uture climate.
Following detailed investigation o the modelling results in IPCC AR4, GCI was
able to conrm with IPCC and Hadle that the new evidence points to the need
or ero emissions globall b about 2050 to keep below 450ppmv atmospheric
CO2 concentration. This level is the most reuentl cited maimum within
which it ma be possible to arrest the rise in global temperature to within a
2C increase above preindustrial levels. These results corroborate the risk
analsis previousl carried out b the GCI or the UK AllPart Parliamentar
Group on Climate Change (APPGCC), shown in summar in Section 8 below.
There is now urther evidence o increasing carbon sink ailure,since publication o IPCC AR4. This is likel to give rise to greater
acceleration in growth o GHG concentration levels.
GCI DIRECTOR
Aubre Meer is the Director o the Global Commons Institute responsible
or ormulation o Contraction & Convergence. His contribution to climate
change mitigation has been recognised with awards including the Andrew
Lees Memorial Award 998, the Schumacher Award in 2000, the Findhorn
Fellowship in 2004, a Cit o London Lietime Achievement award in 2005. In
2007 he was made an Honorar Fellow o the Roal Institute o British Architects
(RIBA) and received the UNEP FI Civil Societ Carbon Leadership Award.
LINKSCarbon Disclosure Project (CDP):
http://www.cdproject.net/
Corporate Leaders Group on Climate Change:
www.cpi.cam.ac.uk/bep/clgcc
European Commission Environment:http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/eccp.htm
FTSE4Good:http://www.tse4good.com/
G8:
http://www.g8.de/Webs/G8/EN/Homepage/home.html
Global Commons Institutehttp://www.gci.org.uk/
Global Reporting Initiative (GRI):
http://www.globalreporting.org/Home
There is now urther
evidence o increasing
carbon sink ailure. This
is likel to give rise togreater acceleration
in growth o GHG
concentration levels.
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Hadle Centre:
http://www.metoce.gov.uk/research/hadlecentre/
Hansen, James: Director o the NASA Goddard Institute
or Space Studies and Adjunct Proessor at the Columbia
Universit Earth Institute, Member o the US National
Academ o Sciences:
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/sta/jhansen.html
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):http://www.ipcc.ch/
Koto Protocol:
http://unccc.int/koto_protocol/items/280.php
State o Caliornia:
http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/
Stern Review:
http://www.sternreview.org.uk
UK Climate Change Bill:http://www.dera.gov.uk/environment/
climatechange/uk/legislation/inde.htm
UNEP Finance Initiative (UNEP FI):
http://www.unep.org/
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC):
http://unccc.int/2860.php
US Environmental Protection Agenc:http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/polic/inde.html
World Economic Forum (WEF):
http://www.weorum.org/en/inde.htm
GCI LINKS
http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/ew.pd
http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/UNFCCC&C_A_Brie_Histor_to998.pd
http://www.gci.org.uk/Endorsements/UNEPFI5.pd
http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/AFRICA_GROUP.pd
COP 997 UNFCCC
Transcript COP C&C agreed in 997http://www.gci.org.uk/temp/COP_Transcript.pd
The C&C Booklet languages rom COP 2/2005:
http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/MONTREAL.pd
Archives covering twent ear histor o this campaign:http://www.gci.org.uk/Archive/Mega_Doc_989_2004.pd
http://www.gci.org.uk/Archive/All_2000_
2007_reduced_le_sie.pd
2004 House o Commons Environmental Audit
Committee and result: http://www.gci.org.uk/correspondence/
EAC_response_GCI_00904.pd
http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/EAC_Final_C&C.pd
C&C brieng to the Ma 2006 allpart enuir into
climateconsensus and result: http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/APGCCC_Evidence_single_A4_
pages.pd
http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/Consensus_Report.pd
The UK House o Commons All Part ParliamentarGroup on Climate Change [APPGCC] have
adopted C&C and a DVD commissioned b the
Group presenting Contraction & Convergence
has been distributed to all UK MPs and Peers:
Eminent spokespersons interviewed on the DVD:http://www.gci.org.uk/images/Contraction_
and_Convergence_Challen_et_al.mpg
Some promotional material:http://www.gci.org.uk/Movies/Contraction_
and_Convergence_Promo.mpg
Ke C&C Animation with coupled models/sinkailure:http://www.gci.org.uk/Animations/BENN_C&C_Animation.ee
CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT
Centrespread overlea charts the UNFCCC Objective &
Principles, the Development Benets o Growth versus
the growth o Climate Change Related Damage Costs.
It is online at: http://www.gci.org.uk/images/Proportionate_Response.pd
Columns one and two address the objective and
principles o the UNFCCC. Columns three and
our compare the development benet o growth
with the growth o climate damage and costs.
The let hand side o each graph shows:
Epanding ossil uel emissions o
CO2 measured in billions o tonnes o
carbon between 800 2000.
Rising concentration o atmospheric
CO2 as parts per million b volume
(ppmv) between 800 2000.
The ke uestions or integration are in our columns:
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Column : Contraction and Concentration: what is a sae
level o concentrations and, in the light o sink
ailure, how rapid must contraction be to avoid
GHG concentration going too high in uture?
Column 2: Contraction & Convergence: what is the
internationall euitable agreement necessar to
ensure this level is not eceeded?
Column : Damage costs and insecurit: what is the
environmental and economic damages trend
associated with this analsis?
Column 4: Contraction and Conversion: what is the rate at
which we must convert the econom awa rom
ossil uel dependenc?
Each Row has a dierent level o Risk projected across the our columns:
C(bottom row)ACCEPTABLE RISK: global GHG emissions contraction complete b 2050
so concentrations end up around 400/450 ppmv
with damages potentiall still under control.
C2 (middle row)DANGEROUS RISK: global GHG emissions contraction complete b 200
so concentrations keep going up through 550/750
ppmv with the illusion o progress maintained,
while damages are going out o control.
C (top row)IMPOSSIBLE RISK: global GHG emissions contraction complete b
2200 so concentrations keep going up through
550/950 ppmv while the illusion o progress is
being destroed, damages costs are destroing
the benets o growth ver uickl and all eorts
at mitigating emissions become utile.
In each graph, dierent utures are projected on the righthand side as
scenarios or rates o change that are linked to the objective o the UNFCCC
where three levels o risk or stabilising the rising concentration o CO2 are
understood in the light o the rising raction o emissions that stas airborne.
The Global Commons Institute [GCI] was ounded in 990. This was
in response to the mainstreaming o global climate change as a
political issue. Realising the enormit o the climate crisis, we devised
a ounding statement on the principle o Euit and Survival. []In November 990, the United Nations began to create the Framework
on Climate Convention [UNFCCC]. GCI contributed to this and in June
992 the Convention was agreed at the Earth Summit in Rio. Its objective
was dened as stabiliing the rising greenhouse gas [GHG] concentration
o the global atmosphere. Its principles o euit and precaution were
established in international law. Climate scientists had showed that a deep
overall contraction o GHG emissions rom human sources is prereuisite to
achieving the objective o the UNFCCC. In 995 negotiations to achieve this
contraction began administered b the speciall created UNFCCC secretariat.
Between 992 and 995 and at the reuest o the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], GCI contributed analsis highlightingthe worsening asmmetr, or Epansion and Divergence [E&D] o global
economic development. It became clear the global majorit most damaged
b climate changes were alread impoverished b the economic structures
o those who were also now causing the damaging GHG emissions. [2]
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This entire animation is online at: http://www.gci.org.uk/images/Final_presentation.ee
ACCEPTABLE
DANGEROUS
IMPOSSIBLE
UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
OBJECTIVE
CONTRACTION & CONCENTRATIONS
PRINCIPLES: PRECAUTION & EqUITy
CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE
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Touch buttons to advance within scenes and logos to advance between scenes
IMPOSSIBLE
ACC
EPTABLE
DANG
EROUS
DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE
DAMAGE COSTS & INSECURITy
UN/SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
CONTRACTION & CONVERSION
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGE-COSTS/DEVELOPMENT-BENEFITS
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To create a sustainable basis on which to resolve
this ineuit, GCI also developed the Contraction &
Convergence (C&C) model o uture emissions. In 995
the model was introduced b the Indian Government
[] and it was subseuentl adopted and tabled b
the Arica Group o Nations in August 997. [4]
Negotiations or the Koto Protocol to the UNFCCC ran
rom 995 until 997. In December 997 and shortl
beore the withdrew rom these negotiations, the USA
stated, C&C contains elements or the net agreement
that we ma ultimatel all seek to engage in. [5)
Since then C&C has been widel reerenced in the
debate about achieving the objective o the UNFCCC.
In 2000 C&C was the rst recommendation o the UK
Roal Commission on Environmental Pollution in its
proposals to government. [6] In December 200 C&C was
adopted b the German Governments Advisor Council
on Global Change in its recommendations. [7] In 200
the secretariat o the UNFCCC said the objective o the
UNFCCC, inevitabl reuires Contraction & Convergence.
[8] The Latin America Division o the World Bank in
Washington DC said, C&C leaves a lasting, positive and
visionar impression with us. In 2004 the Archbishop oCanterbur took the position that, C&C thinking appears
utopian onl i we reuse to contemplate the alternatives
honestl. [9] In 2002, the UK Government accepted GCI
authorship o the denition statement o C&C, recognising
the need, to protect the integrit o the argument.
This statement ollows and is available in thirteen
languages. [0] It has been adopted b the House o
Commons Environmental Audit Committee and in part
in the UNs Millennium Assessment. In 2005, the UK
Government hosted the G8 summit. The Government
committed this event to deal strategicall with theproblems o Arica and Climate Change. Numerous civil
societ and aith groups are now activel lobbing the
Government to have C&C adopted as the constitutional
basis or avoiding dangerous uture climate change.
[] http://www.gci.org.uk/signon/OrigStatement2.pd[2] http://www.gci.org.uk/articles/Nairobb.pd
[] http://www.gci.org.uk/Archive/MegaDoc_9.pd[page 6][4] http://www.gci.org.uk/nairobi/AFRICA_GROUP.pd
[5] http://www.gci.org.uk/temp/COP_Transcript.pd
[6] http://www.gci.org.uk/Endorsements/RCEP_Chapter_4.pd
[7] http://www.gci.org.uk/Endorsements/WBGU_Summar.pd
[8] http://www.gci.org.uk/slideshow/C&C_UNFCCC.pd
[9] http://www.gci.org.uk/speeches/Williams.pd[0] http://www.gci.org.uk/translations.html
. Contraction & Convergence (C&C) is the
sciencebased, global climatepolic ramework,
proposed to the United Nations since 990 b
the Global Commons Institute (GCI). [,2,,4]
2. The objective o sae and stable greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere and the principles
o precaution and euit, as alread agreed in the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC), provide the ormal calculating
basis o the C&C ramework that proposes:
* A ullterm contraction budget or global
emissions consistent with stabilising atmosphericconcentrations o greenhouse gases (GHGs)
at a preagreed concentration maimum
deemed to be sae, ollowing IPCC WG carbon
ccle modelling. (See image above GCI sees
higher than 450 parts per million b volume
[ppmv] CO2 euivalent as notsae).
* The international sharing o this budget as
entitlements results rom a negotiable rate
o linear convergence to eual shares per
person globall b an agreed date within
the timeline o the ullterm contraction/concentration agreement. (GCI suggests [a]
between the ears 2020 and 2050, or around
a third o the wa into a 00 ear budget, or
eample, or convergence to complete (see
Image three below) and [b] that a population
C&C TECHNICAL DEFINITION
9C&C contains
elements or the netagreement that we
ma ultimatel all
seek to engage in.
US delegation to
Koto conerence,
December 995
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baseear in the C&C schedule is agreed).
* Negotiations or this at the UNFCCC should
occur principall between regions o the world,
leaving negotiations between countries primaril
within their respective regions, such as the
European Union, the Arican Union, the US, etc.
* The interregional, international and intra
national tradabilit o these entitlements in an
appropriate currenc such as Energ Backed
Currenc Units [5] should be encouraged.
* Scientic understanding o the relationship
between an emissionsree econom and
concentrations develops, so rates o C&C
can evolve under periodic revision [6].
. Presentl, the global communit continues to generate
dangerous climate change aster than it organises
to avoid it. The international diplomatic challenge
is to reverse this. The purpose o C&C is to make this
possible. It enables scenarios or sae climate to be
calculated and shared b negotiation so that policies
and measures can be internationall organised at
rates that avoid dangerous global climate change.
4. GHG emissions have so ar been closel correlated
with economic perormance. To date, this growth
o economies and emissions has been mostl in the
industrialised countries, creating recentl a global
pattern o increasingl uneconomic epansion and
divergence [E&D], environmental imbalance and
international insecurit (See images opposite).
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5. The C&C answer to this is ullterm and constitutional,
rather than shortterm and stochastic. It addresses
inertial argument about historic responsibilities or
rising concentrations recognising this as a development
opportunit cost to newl industrialising countries.
C&C enables an international predistribution
o these tradable and thereore valuable uture
entitlements to emit GHGs to result rom a rate o
convergence that is deliberatel accelerated relative
to the global rate o contraction agreed (Image ).
6. The UKs Roal Commission on Environmental Pollution
[7] and the German Advisor Council on Global Change
[8] both make their recommendations to governments
in terms o ormal C&C. Man individual and institutional
statements supporting C&C are now on record. [9,0]
The Arica Group o Nations ormall proposed it to theUNFCCC in 997. [] It was agreed in principle at COP
Koto 997 [2]. C&C meets the reuirements o the Brd
Hagel Resolution o the US Senate o that ear [] the
European Parliament passed a C&C resolution in 998
[] the UK Parliament has reported on C&C [5, 6, 7].
7. This snthesis o C&C can redress the increasingl
dangerous trend imbalances o global climate change.
Built on global rights, resource conservation and
sustainable sstems, a stable C&C sstem is now needed
to guide the econom to a sae and euitable uture or all.
It builds on the gains and promises o the UN Conventionand establishes an approach that is compelling enough
to galvanise urgent international support and action,
with or without the Koto Protocol entering into orce.
[] http://www.gci.org.uk[2] http://www.gci.org.uk/model/dl.html[] http://www.gci.org.uk/images/CC_Demo(pc).ee
[4] http://www.gci.org.uk/images/C&C_Bubbles.pd
[5] http://www.easta.org/events/debtcon/sleepwalking.pd
[6] http://www.gci.org.uk/Animations/BENN_C&C_Animation.ee
[7] http://www.rcep.org.uk/pd/chp4.pd[8] http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn200_engl.pd
[9] http://www.gci.org.uk/Archive/989_2004
[0] http://www.gci.org.uk/consolidation/Sasakawa.pd
[] http://www.gci.org.uk/papers/ew.pd [appendi C, page 6][2] http://www.gci.org.uk/temp/COP_Transcript.pd
[] http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/C&C&BrdHagel.pd[4] http://www.gci.org.uk/consolidation/UNFCC&C_
A_Brie_Histor_to998.pd[pp 27 2]
[5] http://www.gci.org.uk/EAC/Climate_C&C_Report.pd
[6] http://www.gci.org.uk/links/detail.pd
[7] http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/Consensus_Report.pd
The charts on the page opposite are stacked one above the
other on the same horiontal time ais [800 2200]. This
helps to compare some o what is known about eisting
rates o sstem change with an underling assumption
in avour o a C&C arrangement being put in place.
A new eature shown is the rate o economic damages rom
increasingl unnatural disasters (measured as uninsured
economic losses b Munich Re) now rising at 7% per annum,
twice the rate o global growth. Another is the devastating
and worsening economic asmmetr o Epansion and
Divergence (E&D). This shows a persistent pattern o
increasingl dsunctional economic growth. One third o
population have 94% o global purchasing power and cause
90% o GHG pollution. [We call these debitors]. The other two
thirds, who live on less than 40% o the average global per
capita income, collectivel have 6% o global purchasing power
and a 0% share o GHG pollution. [We call these creditors].
To escape povert, it is creditors who embod the greatest
impulse or uture economic growth and claim on uture
GHG emissions. But this group also has the greatest
vulnerabilit to damages rom climate changes.
Most institutions now acknowledge that atmospheric
GHG stabiliation, inevitabl reuires Contraction &
Convergence. However, some o the response to C&C,
sees it merel as an outcome o continued economic
growth with onl tentative acknowledgement o
the damages and little comprehension o E&D.
While C&C is not primaril about redistribution, it is
about a predistribution o uture tradable and valuablepermits to emit GHGs. Its purpose is to resolve the
devastating economic and ecological imbalance o climate
change. GCIs recommendation to policmakers at the
United Nations is or the adoption o C&C globall or
ecological and economic recover as soon as possible.Year to year percentage change of Gross World Product, GWP
(measured in US$) and Global Carbon emissions
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A % per annum eponent in the path integral o growth
is starkl asmmetric and unsustainable. Adhering to
economic prognosis based on this is a measure o an
increasingl dangerous economic growth illusion.
When climate damages are added, it is alread clear that the
growth is uneconomic. When damages are subtracted romthis growth. it is clear the netgrowth is increasingl negative.
Asmmetric and damaging netnegative growth is
recipe or confict. The bottomline is that there is
no sustainable energ source that can realisticall
support this Epansion and Divergence.
Contraction & Convergence can help cope with
the limitstogrowth and structure and stablise the
transition to an euilibrium state based on:
() resource conservation,(2) global rights,
() renewable energ and
(4) ecological recover.
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Long beore the end o the UNFCCC negotiation, GCI presented a proposal
on Contraction & Convergence. We all in this room know the model. Level o
contraction and timing o convergence should be negotiated on the basis o the
precautionar principle. Suggestions or emission reductions are well known and
convergence should be achieved at medium term to satis legitimac.
RAUL ESTRADA CHAIRMAN KyOTO PROTOCOL NEGOTIATIONS
Achieving the goal o the climate treat [stabilie GHG concentrations]
inevitabl reuires Contraction & Convergence.
JOKE WALLER HUNTER - UNFCCC ExECUTIVE SECRETARy
Success in the Climate Change negotiations reuires a deal between the quad, the
USA, China, India and the EU. This is possible around the principle o Contraction &
Convergence. The US insistence on India and China accepting targets was not alwas
merel a negotiating tactic. The idea o per capita euit in the Contraction & Convergence
analsis o the Global Commons Institute was seriousl discussed in all our capitals in
the midnineties and the BrdHagel Resolution o the US Senate beore Koto and the
94 0 vote was a statement that such a deal with India and China meant progress.TOM SPENCER - FORMER PRESIDENT GLOBE INTERNATIONAL
Euit guides the route to global ecological recover. Tradable Emissions quotas will makematters worse unless set as targets and timetables or euitable emissions reductions overall. This
means convergence at sustainable parit values or consumption on a per capita basis globall.
INDIAN GOVERNMENT - COP 995
When we ask the opinions o people rom all circles, man people, in particularthe scientists, think the emissions control standard should be ormulated on
a per capita basis. According to the UN Charter, everbod is born eual, and
has inalienable rights to enjo modern technological civiliation.
CHINA STATE COUNSELLOR DR SONG JIAN - COP 997
We support India and propose Contraction & Convergence o global emissions.you cannot talk about trading i there are not entitlements; Contraction &
Convergence comes into pla when we talk about issues o euit
THE AFRICA GROUP KyOTO - COP 997
It does seem to us that the proposals b India and others who speak to
Contraction & Convergence are elements or the uture, elements perhaps
or a net agreement we ma ultimatel all seek to engage in.
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA - COP 997
A set o common principles must be based on a worldwide binding limit on global emissionsconsistent with a maimum atmospheric concentration [contraction] with progressive
convergence towards an euitable distribution o emissions rights on a per capita basis
b an agreed date with acrosstheboard reductions in emissions rights thereater.EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT RESOLUTION 998
Per capita CO2 emissions meet in the middle. In the nal analsis the per capita emissions
in emerging economies will meet those o industrialised countries. I cannot imagine theemerging economies will one da be permitted to emit more CO2 per capita than we in
the industrialised countries. With this proposal, emerging nations with rapidl epanding
economies could be on board the global climate negotiations scheduled or 2009.
ANGELA MERKEL - PRESIDENT OF GERMANy 2008
The international climate regime should be based on legitimate principles o euit,
such as longterm convergence o emission levels per capita in the various countries.
NICHOLAS SARKOzy - PRESIDENT OF FRANCE 2008
Attempts to den C&Cs pure logic ecological, political, social and human are ultimatel
utile. Nature wont be ooled. Acceptance o C&C brings not imprisonment, but new
unound reedom; Justice without Retribution, as Nelson Mandela once demanded.
DAVE HAMPTON - CARBON COACH
C&C SUPPORT
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Sweden strives or global emissions converging to eual per capita or all.
KJELL LARSSON - ENVIRONMENT MINISTER 2000
Emissions should converge towards eual emissions per inhabitant.
RD NATIONAL CLIMATE COMMUNICATION 200
Contraction & Convergence secures a regime where all nations join eortsto protect our global commons without the risk that an countr is deprived
o its air share o the common environmental emission space.
SVEND AUKEN - DANISH ENVIRONMENT MINISTER 999
We are conscious that in the end, we will have inevitabl to evolve towards a more euitable
partition between the North and the South o the capacit o our common atmosphere to support
greenhouse gases b a gradual convergence o levels o emissions on a per capita basis.OLIVIER DELOUzE - BELGIAN ENVIRONMENT MINISTER 2000
I we agree to per capita allowances or all b 200 [so that global emissions sta below 450
ppm 2o global temperature rise] then assigned amounts or Anne One countries would bedrasticall reduced. However, because all countries would have assigned amounts, maimum
use o global emissions trading would strongl reduce the cost o compliance. In such a
scenario Industrial Countries would have to do more, but it would be cheaper and easier.
JAN PRONK COP6 2000 - DUTCH ENVIRONMENT MINISTER
We do not believe that the ethos o democrac can support an norm other
than eual per capita rights to global environmental resources.
PRIME MINISTER INDIA - COP 8 2002
To orestall urther damage deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions than as presentl contained
in the Koto Protocol are urgentl reuired and these must be organised as universal eual
entitlements as engraved in the principles o the Contraction & Convergence Framework.
KENyA GOVERNMENT - COP 2005
Conerence recognises the urgent need or action to mitigate climate change
given the potentiall disastrous conseuences or the planet.
We pledge to achieve a low carbon emitting societ and commit the SNP to supporting theadoption o the internationallrecognised principle o Contraction & Convergence.
ALEx SALMOND - LEADER SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTy
Liberal Democrats argue or the principle o contraction and convergence
with the longterm goal o eualising per capita emissions globall.
CHRIS HUHNE - LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
I urge the UK Government to provide leadership on climate change b committing itsel to
Contraction & Convergence as the ramework within which uture international agreements
to tackle climate change are negotiated. I conrm that the part also supports this pledge.SIMON THOMAS - POLICy DIRECTOR PLAID CyMRU
The Koto Protocol sas nothing about the uture beond 202.
To address that timescale the Green Part advocates the adoption b the UNFCCC oa ramework o Contraction & Convergence (C&C) as the ke ingredient in the global
political solution to the problem o Climate Change mitigation, and urges the UK and
other governments use it as the basis or negotiations in the international ora.GREEN PARTy REAL PROGRESS - CLIMATE POLICy STATEMENT
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To make provision or the adoption o a polic o combating
climate change in accordance with the principles o . . .
Contraction & Convergence and or connected purposes.
COLIN CHALLEN - CHAIR ALL-PARTy GROUP CLIMATE CHANGE
An ramework which involves radical emission reductions would in practice resemble
the Contraction & Convergence approach advocated b the Global Commons Institute.
Indeed, in terms o domestic polic aims, the UK Government has alread implicitl
accepted this approach in adopting the 60% carbon reduction target or 2050; and it isthereore inconsistent not to adopt such an approach internationall. We do not see an
credible alternative and none was suggested in evidence to our inuir. We thereore
recommend that the UK Government should ormall adopt and promote Contraction &
Convergence as the basis or uture international agreements to reduce emissions.
ENVIRONMENTAL AUDIT COMMITTEE HOUSE OF COMMONS
The Government should press or a uture global climate agreement based on the Global
Commons Institutes Contraction & Convergence approach as the international ramework
within which uture international agreements to tackle climate change are negotiated.These
oer the best longterm prospect o securing euit, econom and international consensus.ROyAL COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION
Contraction & Convergence helps greatl. It is inclusive and makes clear what needs to
be achieved. Without such a shared model, there will not be the necessar relationships
that create the new and eciting possibilities and the trust or shared action.CHRIS MOTTERSHEAD - DISTINGUISHED ADVISOR ENERGy & ENVIRONMENT BRITISH PETROLEUM
PLC
Almost an conceivable longterm solution to the climate problem will embod a high degree
o contraction and convergence. Atmospheric concentrations o GHGs cannot stabilie unless
total emissions contract; and emissions cannot contract unless per capita emissions converge.
JOHN ASHTON - UK CLIMATE AMBASSADOR PEW REPORT
The solution to climate change reuires a globall euitable model o emissions reductions.The Contraction & Convergence model calls or alread large polluting countries to cut their
emissions, while newl industrialising countries increase theirs, up to the point that we converge
at a sustainable level. That, I hope, will be the ethos that will guide cities around the world.
KEN LIVINGSTONE - MAyOR OF LONDON
I admire GCIs Contraction & Convergence model and their now nearl twent ear
crusade b to get it established as the international basis o polic to meet the objective
o the UN Climate Treat. Their presentation o it is a dauntingl hard act to ollow.
NICK BUTLER - DIRECTOR CAMBRIDGE ENERGy STUDIES
I support the concept o Contraction & Convergence as does the Environment Agenc
SIR JOHN HARMAN - CHAIRMAN UK ENVIRONMENT AGENCy
. . . there is an emerging proposal here that is important and helpul a broad longterm
commitment to eual per capita emissions. Its a tough proposal. I we take it as part o
the progressive agenda to move to that it will be helpul in bringing the world togetheras it brings the developing countries as part o this eort with an ethical and political
commitment, not immediate, but towards convergence in terms o per capita emissions.KEMAL DERVIS - CHIEF ADMINISTRATOR UNDP
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Business and government cannot solve the problem alone.
Solutions must be global and participation o all major emitters is essential. Companies
cannot determine the scale o needed investment without a stabiliation threshold
or greenhouse gas concentrations. The shortterm patchwork o the Koto Protocolis not costeective. A global long term, marketbased polic ramework in a new
partnership with China, India, Brail, South Arica and Meico is needed. Emissions
rights with common metrics that can be adjusted over time to refect evolving
developments will ensure that a trul global solution to the problem is achieved.
G8 CLIMATE CHANGE 2005 BUSINESS LEADERS
A ormulation that takes the rightsbased approach to its logical
conclusion is that o Contraction & Convergence [GCI]
IPCC WG THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT
The global ramework develops so that CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is heldat or below 400 ppmv. This longterm climate objective is met b ensuring that short
term targets are linked to and consistent with it, with a gradual transition towards a
sstem o eual per capita rights to use the absorptive capacit o the atmosphere.
STEPHEN ByERS - MP INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE TASK FORCE
The Bers report reers to a new basis o euit and common, but dierentiated,responsibilities. We need environmental euit with a cap and trade
programme. Contraction & Convergence is the name that we must give
to it. We must link that battle with the battle against povert.
UK ALL-PARTy PARLIAMENTARy GROUP CLIMATE CHANGE
Policmakers need consensus on a global ramework or climate stabilit based
on principles o precaution and euit such as Contraction & Convergence.
UNEP FINANCIAL INITIATIVE
There is no other method o rationall and ethicall guiding global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
ROyAL INSTITUTE OF BRITISH ARCHITECTS 2006
The UIA commits itsel to campaigning or the most eective outcome
possible at COP5 through advocac o an emission limitation agreementbased on the principle o contraction and convergence.
INTERNATIONAL UNION ARCHITECTS TURIN CONFERENCE 2008
There is a desperate need to create an eective polic or preserving health
ecosstems b providing incentives and the resources to do so. The Contraction
& Convergence approach promoted b UN is a well thought through andpotentiall powerul approach which also addresses air distribution.
PETER HEAD - DIRECTOR ARUP
The per capita approach is generall reerred to as contraction
and convergence (Global Commons Institute 2000) and has gured in
the international debate or some time. It has been promoted b India
and has been discussed avourabl in German and the United Kingdom (German Advisor
Council on Global Change 200; UK Roal Commission on Environmental Pollution 2000).Recent reports have shown increasing support or this approach internationall: see, or
eample, Stern (2008) and the Commission on Growth and Development (2008).
ROSS GARNAUT - AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT ECONOMIST
An international agreement is essential. It must be based on the criteria o
eectiveness, ecienc and euit. Eectiveness demands a longterm global goalcapping global emissions and providing a longterm trajector or investment in
low carbon technologies. This should be at least a halving o global emissions b
2050. A pragmatic principle o euit would reuire an eualisation o per capitaemissions b then. This will reuire developed countries to cut b around 80%.
NICHOLAS STERN - UK GOVERNMENT ECONOMIST
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Contraction & Convergence The logic is compelling.
It is a ormula or uture global emissions that could, without eaggeration,
save the world. Some environment groups such as Greenpeace see
the ormula as a deadend. The are prooundl wrong.Vote or New Statesman best climate ramework
Results Januar 2008 . . .
2% are saing Koto Protocol8% are saing Contraction & Convergence
2% are saing Koto2
5% are saing Greenhouse Development Rights
A ramework involving technolog together with social, political and economic
change with uantiable targets is the onl wa orward. This is wh we
support the wellknown concept o Contraction & Convergence (C&C) as
proposed b the Global Commons Institute as the basis or the agreement. It
satises developing countries demands or euit and US demands that majordeveloping countries such as China and India be involved in an targets.
SCIENTISTS FOR GLOBAL RESPONSIBILITy
The WBGU recommends emissions rights be allocated according
to the Contraction & Convergence approach.
GERMAN ADVISORy COUNCIL
I note what ou sa about Aubre Meers Contraction & Convergenceproposal and I agree that in the ght against climate change C&C makes an
important contribution to the debate on how we achieve longterm climate
stabilit taking account o the principles o euit and sustainabilit.
TONy BLAIR - UK PRIME MINISTER
The Churches can give their backing to Contraction & Convergence
publicl and unanimousl because at its core, it is just. It appears Utopianonl i we reuse to contemplate the alternatives honestl.
DR ROWAN WILLIAMS - ARCHBISHOP OF CANTERBURy
Climate change is likel to impose massive economic costs. The case or beingprepared to spend huge resources to limit it is clear as the cost will be repaid man
times over b the avoidance o disaster. The developed world does not have the
moral right to increase the risk o fooding in Bangladesh. Long term the onl sound
strateg is that o contraction and convergence cutting greenhouse emissions to
the point where the are shared euall, worldwide, on a per capita basis.
LORD ADAIR TURNER - CHAIRMAN OF CLIMATE COMMITTEE
We believe contraction and convergence is the best wa orward because it recognisesthat growth in energ use in developing countries will happen.Even i we could achieve a
reverse in trends o energ use in developed countries, there is not et anwhere enough
alternative and renewable energ available to get us o o ossil uels ast enough. For the
developing world the situation is even more urgent because that is where
most energ intensive industrial and manuacting activit is heading.TIM SMIT - CEO THE EDEN PROJECT
An approach receiving signicant attention is Contraction & Convergence, the science
based global climatepolic ramework proposed b the Global Commons Institute withthe objective o realiing sae and stable greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
It applies principles o precaution and euit, principles identied as important in the
UNFCCC but not dened, to provide the ormal calculating basis o the C&C ramework.
BOB WATSON - FORMER CHAIRMAN IPCCC
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Contraction & Convergence and its mechanism or nancing sustainable development
is the onl proposal so ar which is global, euitable and growthoriented.
CONGRESSMAN JOHN PORTER CHAIR, GLOBE USA
The idea o Contraction & Convergence is destined to be one o the mostimportant principles governing international relations in the 2st centur.
It is a powerul ethic that incorporates global justice and sustainabilit and
thereb bridges the dominant concerns o the last centur and this one.
It is the onl wa to accommodate the interests, ethical and economic, o
developing countries and rich countries in the struggle to nd a solutionto the most important environmental problem acing the world.
DR CLIVE HAMILTON - THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE
The approach o contraction and convergence presents a new economic
development paradigm or the twent rst centur and beond.
MRS. RUNGANO KARIMANzIRA - CHAIR, AFRICA GROUP
The most realistic wa to bring about the reuired reduction in ghg emissionswhich will have the combined eect o reducing the damage imposed on
the insurance industr and encouraging the transition to renewable energ)
is that proposed in the concept o Contraction & Convergence.
UK CHARTERED INSURANCE INSTITUTE
An political solution to climate change will need to be based on reductions in
emissions, otherwise known as contraction. As the climate is owned b no one and
needed b everone, we will also have to move towards euall sharing the atmosphere,
known as convergence. Collective survival depends on addressing both.WORLD DISASTERS REPORT 2000 INTERNATIONAL RED CROSS/CRESCENT
The vision o Contraction & Convergence combines ecolog and euit most elegantl.
HEINRICH BOELL FOUNDATION
The assiduous campaigning over the last decade b the Global Commons Institute based on its idea o contract and converge under which the rich nations undertake
to reduce emissions even as developing nations are permitted to grow their emissions
until such time as per capita emissions converge at the same level, has given this kind
o approach some real credibilit. So, too, has the readiness o developing countries
such as China, Brail, Indonesia and Argentina to accept emissions targets or their own
counties not least because the are alread beginning to eel the impacts o climatechange. The real strength o this approach is that it is based upon a trading sstem, with
rich nations needing to purchase additional carbon credits rom poorer nations.
JONATHON PORRITT - FORUM FOR THE FUTURE
There are a number o measures (o varing scale) that can be used
to reduce the amount o CO2 that is being emitted, these include: Contraction & Convergence
conceived b the Global Commons Institute (GCI) in the earl 990s consists o reducing overallemissions o GHGs to a sae level, Contraction, where the global emissions are reduced becauseever countr brings emissions per capita to a level which is eual or all countries, Convergence.
BMA 2008 - HOW CAN THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE BE REDUCED?
CHC advocates a global ramework or action with contraction and convergence
a avoured option, and seek the means to infuence ke decision makers.
CLIMATE AND HEALTH COUNCIL
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Admiration is reuentl epressed, regarding the elegance and simple logic o
Contraction & Convergence and it has been widel supported b polic makers
as a basis that should underlie the net stage o polic ormulation.
SIR JOHN HOUGHTON - FORMER CHAIR IPCC WORKING GROUP ONE
Man governments around the world have accepted the concept oContraction & Convergence as the onl euitable response
mechanism to the threat o climate change.
GRACE AKUMU - DIRECTOR, CLIMATE NETWORK AFRICA
In the end, the will need to give much weight to eual per capita rights o emissions. Thewill need to allow long periods or adjustment towards such positionswithin the over
riding reuirement to sta within an environmentall responsible global emissions budget.
One possible wa o bringing these two elements together would be the contraction
and convergence approach that has been discussed avourabl in German and India.
ROSS GARNAULT - CLIMATE STRATEGIST AUSTRALIAN GOVERMENT
I not onl support the C&C concept, I nd it inconceivable that we will
avert climate catastrophe without a regime built on some variation o thisapproach. In the debate about climate change, an impression has been
created that the problem is too daunting and comple to prevent. Contraction
& Convergence provides a wa orward that is both air and easible.
JOHN RITCH - WORLD NUCLEAR ASSOCIATION
It is absolutel remarkable that the idea o Contraction & Convergence
has taken such a rm hold worldwide in such a short space o time.
TESSA TENNANT - CHAIR ASSOCIATION FOR SUSTAINABLE
& RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT IN ASIA
Contraction & Convergence is an etermel powerul idea
and we are moving remorselessl towards it.
MICHAEL MEACHER - FORMER UK ENVIRONMENT MINISTER
. . . an approach receiving signicant attention is Contraction & Convergence [C&C] a sciencebased global ramework whereb total global emissions are reduced
(contraction) to meet a specic agreed target, and the per capita emissions o
industrialied and the developing countries converge over a suitabl long time period,
with the rate and magnitude o contraction and convergence being determined
through the UNFCCC negotiating process. It applies principles o precaution andeuit; principles identied as important in the UNFCCC but not dened.
WORLD BANK ON CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE
A brilliant, imaginative and simple means o reaching a just global agreement on emissionreductions is called Contraction & Convergence (C&C). It was rst proposed b the Global
Commons Institute (GCI) in 990. Recognition o its uniue ualities as a ramework
or combating climate change has grown at an astonishing rate since that date.
MAyER HILLMAN - AUTHOR OF HOW WE CAN SAVE THE PLANET
In the light o the longterm perspective two basic reuirements must be met:
Stabilisation o greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level in accordance with
the overall objective o the Climate Change Convention. A air distribution o
rights and obligations, b establishing the concept o percapita emission rightsor all countries, as proposed in the Contraction & Convergence scheme.
DAVID HALLMAN - WORLD COUNCIL OF CHURCHES
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The Scientic Case or Setting a LongTerm Emission Reduction Target. The ramework
o this stud builds on the RCEP work which uses a contraction and convergence
methodolog. Contraction & Convergence is an international polic ramework or dealing
with global climate change developed b the Londonbased Global Commons Institute.
DEFRA ON C&C
UK building industr leaders wrote to Mr Blair saing this rameworkbased market is
contraction and convergence. We highlight the point made b the Corporate Leaders
Group on Climate Change that getting the right glob