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Carbon Emissions Primer

Presentation to PNUCCPresentation to PNUCCSystem Planning Committee

Charlie BlackPower Planning Division Director

Northwest Power & Conservation Council

November 9, 2012Portland, OR

Measures of Weight

Short Ton = 2 000 lbs Short Ton = 2,000 lbs

Metric Ton (Tonne) = 2,204.6 lbs

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CO2 Chemistry

1 molecule of CO2 = 1 atom C + 2 atoms O1 molecule of CO2 1 atom C + 2 atoms O

Atomic mass of CO2• C = 12 grams/mole

• O = 16 grams/mole

12+ (2*16) = 44 grams/mole CO2

Carbon content per tonne of CO2 (12/44)*2,204.6 = 601.2 lbs C/tonne CO2

CO2 Content by Fuel (lbs CO2 per MMBtu of Fuel)

Coal (subbituminous) 212.7

Natural gas 117.1

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Fuel Conversion Efficiencies (MMBtu of Fuel per MWh of Power)

Coal-fired generation• Conventional (existing PNW fleet) 10.70

Natural gas-fired generation• Combined-cycle combustion turbine 6.93

• Single-cycle combustion turbine 9.37g y 9 37

• Large reciprocating engine 8.85

Emissions by Generation Type (lbs CO2 per MWh of Power)

Coal-fired generation• Conventional (existing PNW fleet) 2,277

Natural gas-fired generation• Combined-cycle combustion turbine 812

• Single-cycle combustion turbine 1,097g y , 97

• Large reciprocating engine 1,036

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CO2 Costs by Generation Type ($/MWh)

CO2 Tax or Price$10/ $40/$ / $4 /tonne tonne

Coal-fired generation• Conventional (existing PNW fleet) $10.33 $41.30

Natural gas-fired generation• Combined-cycle combustion turbine $3.68 $14.73• Single-cycle combustion turbine $4.98 $19.91• Large reciprocating engine $4.70 $18.81

Regulatory Approaches to Reduce CO2 Emissions

Mandates (e.g., emissions performance standards renewable portfolio standards)standards, renewable portfolio standards)• Simple, somewhat inflexible

Carbon taxes• Use market forces to achieve compliance

• Costs are known, effects are uncertain

C d t d Cap and trade programs• Use market forces to achieve compliance

• Effects are known, costs are uncertain

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National CO2 Emissions(Electric Power Sector)

3,000Millions of Tonnes

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

NG

Coal

Total

0

500

1980 1990 2005 2011

National CO2 Emissions (Electric Power Sector)

1200

1400Millions of Tonnes

400

600

800

1000

1200

NG

Coal

Total

0

200

400

2011 (Jan‐Jul) 2012 (Jan‐Jul)

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Forces Driving the Reduction in CO2 Emissions

Energy intensity of economy is decreasinggy y y g• Product mix

• Energy efficiency

Recession? • GDP in 2011 was 5 6% higher than 2005GDP in 2011 was 5.6% higher than 2005

Forces Driving the Reduction in CO2 Emissions

Power plant dispatch costs have shifted –natural gas is now competitive with coalnatural gas is now competitive with coal• Lower natural gas prices• Higher coal prices (coal growing as export

commodity)

Coal plant retirementsp• State emissions performance standards• More stringent regulation of non-CO2 emissions• Aging coal fleet, needs for refurbishment

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The U.S. Coal Fleet Is Aging

75% of nameplate capacity > 30 years old 75% of nameplate capacity > 30 years old

50% of nameplate capacity > 37 years old

40% of nameplate capacity > 40 years old 40% of nameplate capacity > 40 years old

Carbon Intensity of the Northwest Power System is Low

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…and Becoming More So

70 0

Sixth Plan Carbon Emissions

20 0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

ion

To

ns P

er

Year

1990 Level: 44 Million Tons

15

0.0

10.0

20.0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028

Mill

Coal is Becoming a Smaller Share of Northwest Power Resources

Hydropower46%

Energy Efficiency16%

Geothermal<1%

Natural Gas11%

Nuclear4%

Wind4%

Biomass1%

Petroleum & Pet Coke<1%

16

Coal18%

Does not reflect announced coal plant closures

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Announced Coal Plant Retirements in the Northwest

Centralia: 2 x 670 megawatt unitsg• First unit closure 2020

• Second unit closure 2025

Boardman: 550 megawatts• Closure 2020C osu e 0 0

Federal Estimates of Social Costs of CO2 Emissions

Interagency “Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis”

Social Cost of CO2, 2010 – 2050 (2010$/tonne)

Discount RateYear

5%Average

3%Average

2.5%Average

3%95th Percentile

2010 4.7 21.4 35.1 64.9

2015 5.7 23.8 38.4 72.8

2020 6 8 26 3 41 7 80 7

Impact Analysis

2020 6.8 26.3 41.7 80.7

2025 8.2 29.6 45.9 90.4

2030 9.7 32.8 50.0 100.0

2035 11.2 36.0 54.2 109.7

2040 12.7 39.2 58.4 119.3

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Avista 2011 IRP

Idaho Power 2013 IRP (Draft)

$90.00 

$ per Ton Co2 (2012$)

$30.00 

$40.00 

$50.00 

$60.00 

$70.00 

$80.00 

High Case

Planning

No Carbon

$0.00 

$10.00 

$20.00 

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

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PacifiCorp 2013 IRP

Puget Sound Energy 2013 IRP (Draft)

180 

200 

80 

100 

120 

140 

160 

Nom

inal $/Ton

2013 IRP High

2013 IRP Mid

2011 IRP High

2011 IRP Mid

2013 IRP Low

‐

20 

40 

60 

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

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Seattle City Light 2012 IRP

Snohomish PUD 2010 IRP and 2011 Midterm Assessment

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