Carbon Lock-In : Why We Should Set Ourselves FREE

Carbon Lock-In

Refers to the self-perpetuating inertia created by large fossil fuel based energy systems that inhibits public and private efforts to introduce alternative energy technologies

The concept emerged in response to what is termed the “climate policy paradox,” which recognizes that there is substantial scientific consensus that climate change is a real and present threat to humans and other species uniquely adapted to current climatic conditions. Similarly there is evidence that technologies exist which can lower the carbon intensity of economic activity in a cost-effective manner, including energy efficiency innovations as well as some renewable energy applications. The existence of these apparent “win-win” no-regrets opportunities for society to act on climate concerns creates a paradox. If such technologies exist, and they are cost effective and help minimize climate-forcing emissions, why aren’t they diffusing more rapidly? The conjecture is that industrial economies have become locked into fossil fuel technologies by past investments and policy decisions, the effects of positive feedback on increasing returns, and the economic growth of energy infrastructure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_lock-in

Global Warming : What the Science Tells Us

Greenhouse Gases (GHG)

A greenhouse gas (GHG) is a gas in an atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect

The primary greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are: water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone

Earth’s climate is highly sensitive to concentrations of GHG in the atmosphere

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas)

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution the burning of fossil fuels and extensive clearing of native forests has contributed to a 40% increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide from 280 ppm in 1750 to 392.6 ppm in 2012

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (i.e., emissions produced by human activities) come from combustion of carbon-based fuels, principally wood, coal, oil and natural gas.

Greenhouse Gases (GHG)Global GHG Emissions By Gas

• 1861 : John Tyndall put out the hypothesis that atmospheric CO2 concentration influences the Earth’s climate.

• 1958 : Charles D. Keeling set out to systematically measure atmospheric CO2

emissions at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii

• Results: Studies showed an increase from 316 ppm in March 1958 to 391 ppm in September 2012

• Note: The seasonal oscillations shown in the curve reflects the growth of plants in the Northern Hemisphere which store more Co2 during the spring and summer months effectively taking up carbon from the atmosphere.

The Keeling Curve

Initial Studies

WB: Turn Down the Heat

The Anthropocene is a proposed geologic chronological term for an epoch that begins when human activities have had a significant global impact on the Earth’s ecosystems

Geological and paleo-climatic evidence clearly show that the current atmospheric CO2

concentrations are higher than at any time in the last 15 million years

Since 1959, approximately 350 billion metric tons of carbon have been emitted through human activity of which 55% has been taken up by the oceans and land and 45% remaining in the atmosphere

In a business as usual scenario:

• Global CO2 emissions will reach 41-B metric tons of CO2 per year in 2020• Total Greenhouse Gases (GhG) will rise to 56 GtCO2e per year in 2020

Global Mean Warming is now approximately 0.80C above pre-industrial levels

Where is Global Warming going?

Ocean93.4%

Atmosphere (2.3%)

Continents (2.1%)

Glaciers/Ice Caps (0.9%)

Arctic Sea Ice (0.8%)

Greenland Ice Sheet (0.2%)

Antarctic Ice Sheet (0.2%)

Effects + Impacts of Climate Change

Effects of Global Warming:

• Sea Level Rise• Ocean Acidification• Arctic Ice Loss• Increasing Loss of Ice from Greenland and

Antarctica• Drought and Aridity• Heatwaves and Extreme Temperature• More Extreme Events

Effects of Global Warming:

Effect Causes/Triggers

Sea Level Rise Thermal expansion due to increasing ocean heat storage + Melting of Glaciers and Ice Caps

Ocean Acidification Oceans absorb at least 25% of CO2 emissions. CO2 reacts with water to form a weak acid

Loss of Arctic Sea Ice Anthropogenic Climate Change/Global Warming

Increasing Loss of Ice from Greenland and Antarctica Intrusion of warm ocean water / Global Warming

Heatwaves and Extreme Temperature Anthropogenic Climate Change/ Global Warming

Drought and AridityWarming of the lower atmosphere strengthens the hydrologic cycle because warmer air holds more water vapor. This strengthening causes dry regions to become drier and wet regions to become wetter. Also changes in atmospheric circulation affect precipitation patterns.

Extreme Events Global Warming, Climate Change, Changes in atmospheric balance

WB: Turn Down the Heat

Effects + Impacts of Global Warming:

Effects General Impact

Sea Level RiseFinding: sea level rise of more than 20cm from pre-industrial to 2009. This threatens abt 600-M people living in low elevation areas. The 10 countries with the most people living in low coastal areas are: China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Egypt, USA, Thailand and Philippines.

Ocean Acidification Reduction of carbonate ions used by marine biota for skeleton and shell formation. Coral bleaching, decline in commercial fisheries thus affecting food supply, loss of livelihood for coastal communities

Loss of Arctic Sea Ice Severe damage to Arctic ecosystem. Changes in the dominating air pressure system affecting wind patterns, weather and climate

Increasing Loss of Ice from Greenland and Antarctica

If present acceleration of ice loss continues, the ice sheets alone can contribute up to 56 cm to sea level rise by 2100.

Heatwaves and Extreme Temperature Heat related deaths, forest fires, and harvest losses

Drought and AriditySevere Agricultural Losses, and Water shortage. Warming induced drying has increased the areas under drought by 8% since the 1970s. 15%oif global cropland is currently classified as drought disaster affected. Aridity has increased 1.74% per decade since the 1970s.

Extreme Events More intense typhoons, cyclones, flooding due to high precipitation, increased frequency of heat waves, and droughts.

Sectoral Impacts of Global Warming:

Sectors Sectoral Impact

Agriculture

• Mid to High latitude areas will enjoy warmer weather and agri productivity will increase slightly• Lower latitude areas esp seasonally dry and tropical regions will suffer a decrease in agri productivity• Significant level of vulnerability of food production and prices due to climate change, extreme weather and

social and economic development trends• CC may reduce arable land in low latitude regions with reductions most pronounced in Africa, Latin America

and India• 10.7% of South Asia’s agri land is projected to be exposed to floods, with a 10% intensification of storm

surges and sea level rise• Main increase in production will have to be managed by an intensification of agri on lesser amount of land• Escalating risk of crop yield reductions associated with warming• Regions expected to see increasing drought severity and extent over the next 30-90 years are in Southern

Africa, the United States, Southern Europe, Brazil and Southeast Asia• Greater threat to food security especially in the tropics and sub-tropics• Drought disaster affected areas predicted to increase from currently 15% to 44% of global cropland by 2100

WB: Turn Down the Heat

Sectoral Impacts of Global Warming:

Sectors Sectoral Impact

Water Resources• Water scarcity will put at risk our capacity to feed our growing population (Proj to be 9-B by 2050)• A 4oC warming will find that 43-50% of the global population will be living in water scarce countries

(compared to 28% today)• A 2oC warming will find about 20-30% less people globally will be affected by increased water stress.

Ecosystems and BioDiversity

• Loss or degradation of ecosystem services occurs as a consequence of species extinctions, declining species abundance or widespread shifts in species and biome distributions.

• Approx 20-30% of plant and animal species are likely to be at increased risk of extinction, if increases in global average temp exceed 2-3o above pre-industrial levels.

• Loss of species within ecosystems will have negative effects on the functioning and stability of ecosystems and on the ability of ecosystems to provide goods and services to human societies.

Human Health

• Increase in malnutrition and undernutrition as an effect of crop failure resulting from extreme weather events and changing climate patterns.

• Impacts of warming could include deaths, injuries, and mental health trauma because of extreme weather events and in high vulnerability settings, increases in respiratory and diarrheal infections.

• Increased occurrence of conflict and violence• People stay indoors because of increased temps resulting to increase incidence of obesity, diabetes and

cardiovascular diseaes

WB: Turn Down the Heat

Climate Change and the Philippines

• Philippines is the third most vulnerable country to climate change in the world1

• Losses due to typhoons is estimated at 1% of GDP (1990-2008)

• Environmental stress (such as pollution of water, air, soil; deforestation) erodes the very basis of economic development

• Losses of PhP950M annually due to outdoor air pollution2

• Only 7.2M hectares out of 30M hectares of forest remain—making it the 2nd lowest in SE Asia3

• While the country has the most extensive coral reefs in the world, 40 percent are in poor condition and only 2 percent are in excellent condition4

In the Philippines, the consequences of unsustainability can be felt everywhere (deforestation, turning rice lands into housing areas, water shortages, land slides, soil degradation, floods, air pollution, waste problems, raising temperatures…..)

GIZ ProGED Project

Climate Change and the Philippines

MSME

POWERFUEL

WATER

Businesses are very much affected by availability and fluctuations of prices of power, fuel, water and availability of resource-based production inputs.

GIZ ProGED Project

Averting a Tragedy of the Global Commons: Act Now. Act Together. Act Different.

• There are a number of global and country initiatives to deal with the challenges of global warming on several fronts.

• In the Philippines, environmental laws and other supporting laws have been enacted

Examples are: National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (2010-2022) DOE Net Metering Law (which allows households to generate their own power through solar panels) Funding for Real Estate Developers to include solar panels in housing development

• There are also special projects like the GIZ project on Promoting Green Economic Development (ProGED)

The Push-Pull-Enable Approach towards Green

GrowthEnablers to Go Green Training and Consulting Clean Technology Transfer Green Financing Information, Knowledge MatchmakingMacro level Positive Incentives (Financial

& Non-Financial) Green Procurement Policies Reduced Tariffs for Imported

Clean Technology

Meso level Award schemes Sustainable consumption

campaigns Consumer awareness

Micro level Green supply chain initiatives

by larger companies CDM financing options for

green investment Pilot projects in other

companies setting up benchmarks

Enable

Macro level Negative Incentives

(financial & non-financial) Stringent Regulatory

Standards

Meso level Pressure from stakeholders

(Gov’t, NGO, media)

Micro level Increased competition

requires to be competitive Lead companies requiring

good environmental practices

Ambitious and environmentally conscious employees

Increasing energy prices Depleting resources

Pull

Push

Building a Green Growth Strategy

GIZ ProGED Project

What Does It Take for MSMEs To Go Green?

Innovative Solutions

High Investment(GSP+GTS+GF)

Implementation of Technology

Low Investment(GSP + GTS)

Change of Mindset / Behavioral changes

No Investment

SavingsGSP: Green Service ProviderGTS: Green Technology SupplierGF: Green Finance

Building a Green Growth Strategy

GIZ ProGED Project

No

Inve

stm

ent

Use energy saving options on electrical devices

READ the label

DOE-DTI Energy label guide for air conditioners, refrigerators, lamp ballasts and bulbs

DTI Philippine Standards (PS) Quality

and Import Certification

Clearance (ICC) Scheme

Use sunlight or wind whenever possible

Always wash with a full load

Cook with a covered lid

Switch off/unplug/adjust

What we as Individuals can Do Energy Efficiency

GIZ ProGED Project

Low

Inve

stm

ent

CFL and LED Bulbs

Flat Screen TVs and laptops

Inverter AC, ceiling fan and solar water heater

What we as Individuals can Do Energy Efficiency

GIZ ProGED Project

What we as Individuals can Do Energy EfficiencyLo

w In

vest

men

t

Proper positioning of the structure on the site to minimize sun exposure and maximize wind

(amihan and habagat)

Light colored roofs and insulation to reduce heat

absorption

Roof vents to release hot air build up

Planting to provide shade and shield

from sunlight

Proper positioning of windows to allow cross ventilation and

maximize natural lighting

Green Building DesignFor energy efficiency

GIZ ProGED Project

Success hinges on changing behavior and

shifting public opinion. Individuals, as

citizens and consumers, will determine the planet’s future”

WDR Report 2010: Development and Climate Change

Digital Artifact Submitted By:

Maria Elena C. ArbonTurn Down the Heat: Why a 4oC Warmer World Must Be AvoidedApril 20 – May 22, 2015