carboocean wp14 – d 14.4 damian panasiuk, nilu polska scenarios of co 2 emission in europe to 2030...
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CARBOOCEAN WP14 – D 14.4
Damian Panasiuk, NILU Polska
Scenarios of CO2 emission
in Europe to 2030
CARBOOCEAN 2nd Annual meeting, Gran Canaria, 4-8 December 2006
Scenarios of CO2 emission in Europe to 2030
Groups of scenarios:
• 4 baseline scenarios (without climate policies)
• 5 Policy Targets (POT) scenarios
• 1 green scenario (EEA Low Greenhouse gas Emission Pathway with renewables targets)
Data sources:
• CAFE scenarios (with and without climate policies, trends), National Technical University of Athens,
• CAFE/PRIMES model (with and without further climate measures), IIASA,
• EEA Climate changes scenarios data (5 scenarios),
Scenarios of total national emissions of carbon in CO2 for EU-15
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
year
Gt
C/ y
r CAFE/PRIMES model withoutfurther climate measures
Energy and Transport Trends to2030 - Baseline scenario
EEA Baseline scenario (LREM-E)
(CAFE) Baseline scenario withoutclimate policies
CAFE/PRIMES model with furtherclimate measures
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway with phase outnuclear EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway (LGEP)
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway withaccelerated nuclear CAFE Baseline scenario withclimate policies
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway with renewablestargets
Scenarios of total national emissions of carbon in CO2 for new EU10
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
year
Gt
C/ y
r CAFE/PRIMES model withoutfurther climate measures
Energy and Transport Trends to2030 - Baseline scenario
EEA Baseline scenario (LREM-E)
(CAFE) Baseline scenario withoutclimate policies
CAFE/PRIMES model with furtherclimate measures
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway with phase outnuclear
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway (LGEP)
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway withaccelerated nuclear
CAFE Baseline scenario withclimate policies
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway with renewablestargets
Scenarios of total national emissions of carbonin CO2 for EU-25
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
year
Gt
C/ y
r CAFE/PRIMES model withoutfurther climate measures
Energy and Transport Trends to2030 - Baseline scenario
EEA Baseline scenario (LREM-E)
(CAFE) Baseline scenario withoutclimate policies
CAFE/PRIMES model with furtherclimate measures
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway with phase outnuclear
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway (LGEP)
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway withaccelerated nuclear CAFE Baseline scenario withclimate policies
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway with renewablestargets
Estimations:
• for Europe-30 (European Union-25 + Norway, Switzerland, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey),
• for whole Europe and Russian Federation
based on:
• trends from EU-15 used for Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein,
• trends from new 10 Member States used for Bulgaria, Romania and remaining countries
Scenarios of total national emissions of carbon in CO2 for Europe-30
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
year
Gt
C/ y
r CAFE/PRIMES model withoutfurther climate measures+estimates
Energy and Transport Trends to2030 - Baseline scenario
EEA Baseline scenario (LREM-E)
(CAFE) Baseline scenario withoutclimate policies +estimates
CAFE/PRIMES model with furtherclimate measures +estimates
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway with phase outnuclear
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway (LGEP)
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway withaccelerated nuclear
CAFE Baseline scenario withclimate policies +estimates
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway with renewablestargets +estimates
Scenarios of total national emissions of carbon in CO2 for EUROPE + RUSSIA
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
year
Gt
C/ y
r CAFE/PRIMES model withoutfurther climate measures+estimates
Energy and Transport Trends to2030 - Baseline scenario+estimates EEA Baseline scenario (LREM-E)+estimates
(CAFE) Baseline scenario withoutclimate policies +estimates
CAFE/PRIMES model with furtherclimate measures +estimates
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway with phase outnuclear +estimates EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway (LGEP)+estimates
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway withaccelerated nuclear +estimates CAFE Baseline scenario withclimate policies +estimates
EEA Low Greenhouse gasEmission Pathway with renewablestargets +estimates
baseline scenarios
Policy Targets scenarios
green scenario
Scenarios of CH4 emission in Europe to 2030
- I version
Groups of scenarios:
• baseline scenario (without climate measures)
• Policy Targets scenarios (with existing measures)
• green scenarios (with additional measures)
Data sources:
• EEA Climate changes scenarios data,
• EEA report 2006 „Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe”,
• EEA report 2003 „Greenhouse gas emission projections for Europe”,
Scenarios of total national emissions of carbonin CH4 for EU-25
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
year
Mt
C/ y
ear
EEA Baseline scenario (LREM-E)2005
EEA Low Greenhouse gas EmissionPathway (LGEP) 2005
EEA projections with existingmeasures (2006)
EEA projections with additionalmeasures (2006)
EEA projections with existingmeasures (2003)
EEA projections with additionalmeasures (2003)
Scenarios of total national emissions of carbonin CH4 for EUROPE and RUSSIA
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
year
Mt
C/ y
r
EEA Baseline scenario (LREM-E)2005
EEA Low Greenhouse gas EmissionPathway (LGEP) 2005
EEA projections with existingmeasures (2006)
EEA projections with additionalmeasures (2006)
EEA projections with existingmeasures (2003)
EEA projections with additionalmeasures (2003)
CARBOOCEAN WP14 – D 14.4
Damian Panasiuk, NILU Polska
Scenarios of CO2 emission
in Europe to 2030
CARBOOCEAN 2nd Annual meeting, Gran Canaria, 4-8 December 2006