Carbon cycle dynamics in Oregon and Western US

Beverly Law

Oregon State University

Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregon’s urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes Part 1: Current Land-Use/Land-CoverPI: B.E. Law, CoIs: C. Still, T. Hilker, A. Schmidt

Objective

• Multi-scale observations and neural networks to determine how current climate and LC/LUC influence ecosystem processes

Approach

• Establish flux sites in major crops and poplar

• Compare seasonal and annual fluxes among cover types

Project # OREZFES-867

Flux Measurements in Crops, Poplar for Comparisons and Modeling

Annual Fluxes – Forests, Crops, Poplar

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2008 2009 2010

NEP (g C m-2 yr-1)

Mature Douglas-fir Mature Ponderosa Pine

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winter wheat tall fescue poplar

NEP (gC m-2 yr-1)

Willamette Valley Biocycle Farm

Annual Carbon Budget for OregonInitial Estimates

Source

Sector

Fossil Fuels Forest NECB Crop NECB

Tg

CO

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r-1

-30

-20

-10

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Land-based carbon sink is ~30% of the equivalent of Oregon’s FFE

(Inventories, Flux sites, Ancillary Plots, Satellite Land Cover & Fire Emissions)

Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregon’s urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes: Part 2 Future Climate & Land-Use/Land-Cover PI: B.E. Law, CoIs: C. Still, T. Hilker, A. Schmidt (Oregon State University), Collaborator: T. Hudiburg (UI)

Objective

• Investigate future climate variability and effects of land cover and land use changes on terrestrial processes

Approach

• Reduce uncertainties in CLM projections

• Simulate future climate effects on ecosystem processes

• Simulate thinning of vulnerable forests, LUC non-forage crop to poplar

Project # OREZFES-868

Model underestimated NEP in high biomass forests L: Difference between prior and posteriori NEPR: Current non-forage grass crops

Land Cover Willamette Valley

Vegetation Type / Crops

Alfalfa

Apples

Barley

Barren

Blueberries

Broccoli

Buckwheat

Cabbage

Caneberries

Cauliflower

Cherries

Christmas Trees

Clover/Wildflowers

Corn

Cucumbers

Dbl Crop WinWht/Corn

Deciduous Forest

Developed/High Intensity

Developed/Low Intensity

Developed/Med Intensity

Developed/Open Space

Dry Beans

Evergreen Forest

Fallow/Idle Cropland

Flaxseed

Garlic

Grapes

Grass/Pasture

Greens

Herbaceous Wetlands

Herbs

Hops

Mint

Misc Vegs & Fruits

Mixed Forest

Mustard

Oats

Onions

Open Water

Other Crops

Other Hay/Non Alfalfa

Other Tree Crops

Peaches

Pears

Peas

Peppers

Perennial Ice/Snow

Plums

Potatoes

Pumpkins

Radishes

Rape Seed

Rye

Shrubland

Sod/Grass Seed

Sorghum

Spring Wheat

Squash

Strawberries

Sugarbeets

Sunflower

Sweet Corn

Triticale

Turnips

Vetch

Walnuts

Winter Wheat

Woody Wetlands

Conversion from Coal to Bioenergy – Oregon

~3 Tg torrefied biomass per year needed to run 518 MW power plant at base load

Optimize for minimizing impacts on forests, sustainable supply

Future C Stocks and Emissions – Oregon

In progress:

NECB and C stocks in forests post-thinning

NECB and C stocks on agr land if convert 150K ha non-forage grass to poplar (100% conversion unlikely).

Maximum potential supply of biomass to electric facility, and uncertainties

Refine Life Cycle Assessment of emissions from land post-harvest, transport, torrefaction, pelletization, fossil fuel displacement

Assessment of effects of LUC to poplar on carbon and water cycle

Forest Die-off, Climate Change, and Human Intervention in Western North AmericaPI: P. Mote, Co-lead PI: B.E. Law (OSU) Co-Is: A. Plantinga (UC-SB), J. Hicke (UI)

Objectives

• Improve ability to predict mortality

• Map vulnerability of forests to mortality under present and future climate

• Assess & reduce uncertainty in forecast

Approach

• CLM: Drought- and beetle-related mortality

• Economic model to optimize thinning of vulnerable forests

• Life Cycle Assessment

Project #:OREW-2013-00628

(Berner et al. in rev)NASA fellowship

Forest Biomass Mortality – Western US (2002-2012)

Negative water balance is the dominant driver of mortality in the W US

Dry ecoregions were exposed to below-average water availability for longer duration

(Berner & Law 2015)

Water availability

Biomassdensity

(Berner et al. BGD 2016)

Water Availability Mean Over Western US (1985-2014)

Mean Magnitude (kg * m-1 s-1)60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130L

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11 Yr Mean

Perturbed Physics Default Physics setting1 Standard DeviationReanalysis Datasets

Simulated Moisture Transport over NE Pacific

Aim: Parameterize global model to bring correct amount of moisture into western boundary of regional model

Default: Location of the jet is too far N and not enough moisture

Several parameter sets improve jet location and moisture transport