RealTime TalentErin Olson, Research StrategistOctober 2020

CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020

Workforce Trends & Economic Impacts

The contents of this publication were made possible through the Strengthening Career

and Technical Education for the 21st Century Act (Perkins V) federal grant from the United States Department of Education

administered through Minnesota State Colleges and Universities.

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RealTime TalentErin Olson, Research StrategistOctober 2020

CAREER & TECHNICAL EDUCATION BEYOND 2020

Workforce Trends & Economic Impacts

MSP Metro Minnesota

Overview

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• Community Profile• Workforce Impacts of COVID-19• Shifting Opportunities• Accessible Career Pathways

MSP Metro Minnesota

Access the full regional report here:http://www.realtimetalent.org/cte2020

IF YOU COULD DO ONE THING…

Of the following workforce-related

issues, which do you feel is the most important to be

addressed right now in your community?

Polling Question1. Improving broadband internet or technology

access2. Attracting younger talent / Addressing an aging

workforce3. Changing the variety or volume of local

educational offerings4. Providing immediate financial relief to small

businesses experiencing economic stress5. Increase supports for vulnerable populations

(this may include BIPOC communities, people with disabilities, disconnected youth, people experiencing poverty, the uninsured, or people who have become unemployed during the pandemic)

6. None of these issues need to be addressed in my community

Community Profile

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6.3% Hispanic/Latinx

5.3% Hispanic/Latinx

American Community Survey 2014-2018.

MSP Metro Minnesota

Community Profile

7American Community Survey 2014-2018.

MSP Metro Minnesota

Community Profile

8

MSP Metro Minnesota

Community Profile

9NCES IPEDS 2017-18 awards and enrollment data.

MSP Metro Minnesota

Community Profile

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MSP Metro Minnesota

Community Profile

11DatabaseUSA, Accessed September 2020.

MSP Metro Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Community Vulnerability

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• Age• Race/ethnicity• Gender• Some medical conditions• Use of certain medications• Poverty and crowding• Certain occupations• Pregnancy

MSP Metro Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Community Vulnerability

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MSP Metro Minnesota

When you think about the current economic

situation in your community, which of the following career fields do you feel has

the most challenging or pressing workforce

needs to be addressed right now? (select up to

two)

Polling Question

1. Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources

2. Arts, Communications, and Information Systems

3. Business, Management, and Administration

4. Engineering, Manufacturing, and Technology

5. Health Science Technology6. Human Services

When you think about your local school,

district, or consortium’s programming, how well

do you feel current program offerings

address your community’s most

challenging or pressing workforce needs right

now?

Polling Question

1. To a Great Extent2. Somewhat3. Very Little4. Not at all5. I do not know

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Industry Vulnerability

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MSP Metro Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Industry Vulnerability

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MSP Metro Minnesota

Estimated 14% of local occupations by industry may

experience short-term job loss due to COVID-19.

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Occupational Vulnerability

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Estimated 23% of local occupations are high

contact-intensity and may have higher than average exposure to COVID-19.

Based on analysis by Dingel, C. L., and B. Neiman (2020): “How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?” NBER Working Paper No. 26948.Leibovici, F., A. M. Santacreu, and M. Famiglietti (2020): “Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations,” FRB St. Louis Technical Report, URL: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/march/social-distancing-contact-intensive-occupations#:~:text=Food%20and%20beverage%20serving%20workers%20are%20at%20the%20bottom%20of,K%20to%2012th%20grade%20teachers.

MSP Metro Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Forecast

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5-Year Forecast Comparison in the MSP Metro

MSP Metro Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Forecast

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COVID-19-Impacted High Contact-Intensity Occupation Employment 5-Year Forecast in the MSP Metro

MSP Metro Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Early Occupational Impacts

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Unemployment Insurance Applicants as a Share of Total Labor Force by County, March 16 – August 27, 2020

Employment by County, 2020Q1

Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.

MSP Metro Minnesota

August 2020 Unemployment (LAUS): 142,116 (8.1%)

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Early Occupational Impacts

22Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.

MSP Metro Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Early Occupational Impacts

23Unemployment Insurance Applications, MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.

MSP Metro Minnesota

Workforce Impacts of COVID-19: Mid-Term Occupational Impacts

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MSP Metro Minnesota

COVID-19 has accelerated talent surplus anticipated in lower-wage, lower-education positions, particularly: 1) high contact-intensity

occupations and 2) positions that cannot be

done remotely.

Shifting Opportunities

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Remote Work Jobs by County, 2020Q1

Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.

MSP Metro Minnesota

Shifting Opportunities

26Cluster forecasts estimated using Chmura, JobsEQ, based on 2020Q1 employment data. All clusters are distinct occupations except for Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, which overlaps with other clusters.

MSP Metro Minnesota

Shifting Opportunities

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Employment, Annual Openings, and Wages by Career Cluster

Cluster forecasts estimated using Chmura, JobsEQ, based on 2020Q1 employment data. All clusters are distinct occupations except for Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources, which overlaps with other clusters.

Career Cluster Employment Avg Ann Wages Job Ads

Ann Empl Growth

Ann Total Demand

Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics 29,930 $100,600 2,096 136 2,451

Information Technology 71,815 $92,800 7,107 755 6,219

Finance 93,624 $84,000 4,801 375 9,138 Health Science 166,062 $76,100 9,446 2,212 15,521

Law, Public Safety, Corrections & Security 51,122 $69,900 1,436 155 4,987

Government & Public Administration 16,257 $69,900 502 67 1,511

Business, Management & Administration 342,196 $68,000 12,877 -57 36,986 Architecture & Construction 104,575 $65,700 2,284 900 12,350

Education & Training 111,023 $60,900 4,298 850 11,436

Arts, A/V Technology & Communications 35,963 $58,100 759 -124 3,772

Agriculture, Food & Natural Resources 70,063 $58,700 2,786 483 8,661 Marketing, Sales & Service 208,293 $55,200 14,204 258 27,561

Manufacturing 150,377 $48,600 5,864 -377 15,964

Transportation, Distribution & Logistics 136,739 $47,700 5,867 594 17,146

Human Services 123,350 $40,300 6,420 2,211 18,823 Hospitality & Tourism 216,694 $31,300 11,593 1,904 38,565

Total - All Occupations 1,875,117 $59,700 90,361 10,273 225,069

MSP Metro Minnesota

Shifting Opportunities

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Occupations in 5-Year Shortage• Registered Nurses• LPNs• Medical and Health Services

Managers• Medical Assistants• Physicians• Nurse Practitioners• Medical Secretaries• Physical Therapists• Medical Records Specialists• Nursing Assistants

Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.

MSP Metro Minnesota

Shifting Opportunities

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Occupations in 5-Year Shortage• Software Developers• Computer Systems Analysts• Network and Computer

Systems Administrators• Computer Occupations, All

Other• Computer Programmers• Web Developers and Digital

Interface Designers• Computer Network

Architects• Computer Network Support

Specialists

Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.

MSP Metro Minnesota

Emerging Career Paths

30Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.

Top Emerging Occupations March 1-August 31, 20201. Software Developers, Applications (+10%)2. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer and Truck Drivers (+15%)3. Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers

(+251%)4. Stock Clerks—Stockroom (+86%)5. Personal Care Aides (+108%)6. Insurance Sales Agents (+38%)7. Computer Systems Engineers (+5%)8. Nursing Assistants (+1%)9. Information Security Analysts (+19%)10. Loan Interviewers and Clerks (+131%)

New Job Postings by City, March 1-August 31, 2020

4,514

4,688

5,356

5,789

6,306

7,828

8,989

11,889

40,156

81,754

0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Shakopee

Hopkins

Burnsville

Plymouth

Eagan

Minnetonka

Bloomington

Eden Prairie

St. Paul

Minneapolis

2020 2019

MSP Metro Minnesota

Emerging Skill Gaps

31Chmura Economics JobsEQ, 2020Q1 dataset.

Top 10 Skill Gaps in Twin Cities 7-County Metro

Name Candidates Openings Gap

Microsoft Excel 15,600 17,982 -2,382

Microsoft Office 14,643 16,489 -1,846

Microsoft Word 5,986 7,186 -1,201

Microsoft PowerPoint 4,718 5,909 -1,190

Finance 2,859 3,850 -991

Teaching/Training, School 5,373 6,326 -953

Manufacturing 2,851 3,566 -714

Microsoft Outlook 7,037 7,620 -583

Data Entry 1,259 1,767 -508

Automated External Defibrillators (AED) 401 862 -461

Top 10 Certification Gaps in Twin Cities 7-County Metro

Name Candidates Openings Gap

Licensed Practical Nurse (LPN) 555 1,100 -545

Class A Commercial Driver's License (CDL-A) 650 839 -189

First Aid Certification 1,143 1,322 -179

AED Essentials 133 253 -120

Commercial Driver's License (CDL) 628 747 -119

Certified Internal Auditor (CIA) 68 126 -59

AFAA Personal Fitness Trainer 77 132 -55

Certified Protection Professional (CPP) 12 66 -54

Certified Information Systems Auditor (CISA) 78 127 -49

Medical Technologist (Medical Technologists) 27 73 -46

MSP Metro Minnesota

Accessible Career PathwaysAssociate’s Degree or Less

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MSP Metro Minnesota

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MSP Metro Minnesota

Accessible Career PathwaysAssociate’s Degree or Less

Accessible Career PathwaysBachelor’s Degree or Higher

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MSP Metro Minnesota

Accessible Career PathwaysBachelor’s Degree or Higher

35

MSP Metro Minnesota

Accessible Career PathwaysBachelor’s Degree or Higher

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MSP Metro Minnesota

Summary and Discussion

What piece of the data surprised, inspired, validated, or

challenged you?

Discussion Question 1

From your perspective, what are the most important

considerations in these data for Career and Technical Education

programs?

Discussion Question 2

What is one barrier that you can help remove for BIPOC

students?

Discussion Question 3

What additional information will you seek out next?

Discussion Question 4

What changes or evaluations to your program will you prioritize

next as a result of this data?

Discussion Question 5

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Thank you!

If you have questions about this report, please contact:Erin Olson, Research Strategist, erin@realtimetalentmn.org