Caribbean Green EconomyConference 2015

Tuesday 24 February 2015Future Pathways

New Models of Urban Development

Professor Anthony Clayton

80% chance will be 9.6-12.3bn in 2100

September 2014

>7bn today

Implications By 2050 >50% of world population Asian, ~25% African. Ten most populous countries: India, China, Nigeria, USA,

Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Philippines, Mexico, Congo.

By 2050 median age up from 29 to 41; about 28% (3bn) will be over 60.

By 2050 about 70% of world population will be in cities (up from 50% in 2010).

By 2100 will be 2.5–5.3bn more people than now, could be ~90% urban.

World population will be much older, richer, urban. On current development trajectory, levels of consumption of

energy and resources will be much higher.

US National Intelligence Council projections: world demand for food, water, and energy will grow by 35%, 40%, and 50% respectively by 2030, due to increases in population and per capita consumption.

Climate change will create instability in many regions via water and food shortages.

On current trajectory, most likely outcome is surging demand for energy and materials from emerging economies, potential shortages of some key resources, then possible environmental disaster in vulnerable regions.

Will we run out of resources?

Redesigning cities for the new world

Become larger & more densely populated.Generate their own power & use it much

more efficiently.Recover and re-use water.Produce their own food.Recover and recycle wastes.Use closed-loop production systems.Be designed to eliminate commuting.

Cities will:

Why we need to focus on…buildings

Buildings account for >1/3rd of world energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions.

10-20% of energy is used in manufacturing and assembly.80-90% is heating, cooling, lighting, ventilation,

appliances. It is therefore important to make buildings more

efficient, so that they are easier & cheaper to heat, cool, light and ventilate.

ZEB/EP buildings: high energy efficiency, PV etc. used to meet demand, power storage or smart grid as back-up.

Technologies: LED/OLED lighting, absorbent wall coatings to control humidity, efficient appliances (insulated refrigerators and solar-powered air conditioning units) to reduce consumption.

If all buildings were ZEB could reduce global energy demand by 38%; EP would displace more.

University of Copenhagen Faculty of Science ZEB:2009

The Solar Village

Residential units, built 2008, in Freiburg, Germany. Solar panels for electricity and heat. Connected to grid, no onsite electricity storage.

Average house in Germany requires 3,000 kWh pa. These houses net export twice that. So each house generates revenue for occupant.

BrightFarms hydroponic greenhouse: designed to be the largest rooftop farm in the world, 100,000 square feet of rooftop space in Brooklyn.

EDITT Tower, Singapore (design)

Design for Geos Neighborhood in Arvada, Colorado: 308 houses. Design will reduce energy demand by 80%, solar & geothermal power will supply the rest.

Key points

Better planning and design can reduce energy demand from buildings to net zero.

Smart grids can balance supply and demand.Integrated water management reduces

waste, can also support urban farming.Cities could therefore start to supply their

own needs for energy, food and water.The reduction in global demand for energy

could largely resolve the problem of climate change.

The future of transport Mercedes-Benz F015 concept vehicle

Things we won’t need any more:• Driver’s tests and driver’s licenses.• License plates (replaced by wifi).• Traffic laws (including speed limits and DUI), traffic

police.• Car insurance.• Urban transit systems (still need inter-city).• Privately-owned vehicles (uber-call when you need

one).

Thank you !Thank you !