Carolyn Enquist, Science & Applications Coordinator USA-National Phenology NetworkNMFWA 11 March 2014

Toward strategic climate-informed monitoring

Climate-Smart Conservation Cycle

1. Helps guide adjustments in strategies and actions

Evaluation of efficacy

2. Helps provide context for understanding climate-related impacts and vulnerabilities in the context of adaptive management

Helps reduce uncertainty

Stein et al. “ClimateSmart Conservation Quick Guide” (full document in prep.)

“Unpacking” Monitoring

Towards developing a Climate-informed Monitoring Plan as a key adaptation action to optimize investment in efforts

“Unpacking” Monitoring

Photo by Christy Wolf

Evaluate and optimize existing efforts relative to climate-informed management goals & objectives; identify gaps & opportunities

“Unpacking” Monitoring

Photo by Christy Wolf

The C-I monitoring cycle

7. Tracking change and strategy

effectiveness

7a. Review monitoring efforts

relative to management

7b. Align with relevant regional

impacts (Hypotheses of

change)

7c. Adjust or change monitoring

target

7d. Optimize strategy

What to monitor?

Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs)—Pereira et al. 2013, Science

EBV CLASS EBV EXAMPLES

(1) Genetic composition Allelic diversity, phenotypes

(2) Species populations Abundance & distribution

(3) Species traits Phenology

(4) Composition Taxonomic diversity, functional types

(5) Ecosystem structure Habitat structure

(6) Ecosystem function Ecosystem processes

An example

7. Tracking change and strategy effectiveness

7a. Fire Suppression & Use as Tool

7b. Increased fire frequency, intensity, &

season length (ecosystem process

EBV)

7c. Monitor length of growing season (GDD) &

phenology of fuels

7d. Optimize pre-season fuel treatment windows

& post-fire soils & vegetation treatments

Regional Climate: warmer, drier,

increased frequency of extreme weather

events

Optimize Wildland Response Team Preparedness

An example

7. Tracking change and strategy

effectiveness

7a. Riparian habitat restoration

7b. Altered hydrological processes, Timing of green up (ecosystem process & phenology

EBVs)

7c. Monitor timing of peak flow, timing of

leaf-out along riparian corridor

7d. Optimize water allocation throughout season & shading via

plantings & built structures

Regional Climate: warmer, drier,

increased frequency of extreme weather

events

Optimize habitat for SW Willow

Flycatcher

“Adapt, improvise, and overcome.”

─ T.C. Cummings, Mind of a SEAL