RESISTING HEGEMONY RESISTING HEGEMONY ON THE NILEON THE NILE

III Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony12-13 May 2007

Ana Elisa CascãoKing’s College of London

ABSTRACT MODEL OF HEGEMONY AND ABSTRACT MODEL OF HEGEMONY AND COUNTER-HEGEMONYCOUNTER-HEGEMONY

EGYPTIAN EGYPTIAN STATUS QUOSTATUS QUO??HISTORIC, ACQUIRED, AND

ESTABLISHED RIGHTS

• 55.5 bcm• 1959 Agreement• No infrastructures

upstream• Extreme Nile-dependence• Rule of Experts

BEYOND THE STATUS QUO

• More water• More facts-on-the-ground

MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM . . . MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM . . .

Consenting? Consenting?

oror

Contesting?Contesting?

SCARCITY OF POWER?SCARCITY OF POWER?• Civil wars• Political instability• Lack of investment• Lack of international

backup• Knowledge gap• Lack of expertise• Weak negotiation

tools+

• Different priorities• Dogmatic claims

Veiled Consent!

??

SUDAN – Between Hegemony SUDAN – Between Hegemony and Resistanceand Resistance

PASTAlly in the hegemonic

game

PRESENT Official consent,

unofficial contestation

SUDAN – Between Hegemony SUDAN – Between Hegemony and Resistanceand Resistance

FUTURENew oil-economy

New partners & investors

New ambitions?New hegemon?

ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest and Resistanceand Resistance

PASTNile as a mere

diplomatic weapon

PRESENT Official discourse

Nile = Development

ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest and Resistanceand Resistance

FUTURE

Systematic use of the Nile waters?

Irrigation?

Hydropower?

MECHANISMS OF RESISTANCEMECHANISMS OF RESISTANCE

1 – Violent 1 – Violent

2 – Functional2 – Functional

3 – Cooperative 3 – Cooperative

4 – Liberating4 – Liberating

• Military acts• Support to opposition groups • Internal violence• Bellicose threats

• Reactive Diplomacy• Pro-Active Diplomacy• Mobilise “alternative” funding• Unilateral infrastructures

• Cooperation with “internal” parties (excluding the hegemon)

• Cooperation with “internal” parties (including the hegemon)

• Cooperation involving with “external” parties

• Knowledge/Expertise construction• Discourse Alternatives• Coalitions with Progressive Forces

NILE BASIN INITIATIVE?NILE BASIN INITIATIVE?

Cooperation as DOMINATION?• Agenda setting

• Legal issues• Business-as-usual• State-nation based

Cooperation as BATTLEGROUND?• Creation of “new” knowledge

• Reduce expertise gap• Opportunities for new investment/infrastructures

• Potetial for Basin as the unity for action

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

• Some Resistance• No Counter-

Hegemony

• Riparians will not give up of national-based plans

• Hegemony in the Basin directly related with Global and Regional Politics