The Nile Basin: Land ‘investments’ – Challenges for Peace and Development?

Ana Elisa CascãoWorkshop ‘Shared Water’

Stockholm, 3-4 December 2012

Nile: the water, the Basin, the countries and its population

NBI

, 201

2

Nile Basin Political Economy

Nile Basin: agricultural development (past and present)

Current Development

Food (In)Security

Agricultural Trade

Poverty and Food Crises

Main Nile agricultural

systems

Irrigation (medium and large): Egypt and Sudan

Rainfed mechanised farming: North Sudan

Rainfed subsistence agriculture (small holders):

Upstream countries

(Agro-)Pastoralism: Sudan, Ethiopia, South Sudan and

Uganda

Land Useand Pastoralism

Food (in)security

Agriculture Trade Balance

Inter-Basin Agriculture Trade

Trade: intra-regional and outside the Basin

Zeitoun, Allan and Mohieldeen, 2010

Trade: intra-regional and outside the Basin

Zeitoun, Allan and Mohieldeen, 2010

1970s(Ethiopia)

1990s:War-related food crises

2010/11:Horn of Africa

Nile Basin: Food Crises

ClimateConflictsPoliticsAidLand use and productivity...

Land-related Challenges for Development and Peace are not new

Nile Basin: agriculture development (potential/future)

Potential Agricutural

Development

Foreign Land Acquisitions

Land, Development

and Peace

Transboundary Dimension

Nile Agricultural Potential High agricultural potential

Land and water available

Agriculture and the NBI (Project: ‘Efficient Water Use for Agricultural Production’)

Lack of regional perspective vs. National-based developments

Nile Basin: Old ‘breadbasket’ phenomen

Land Acquisitions: not a new reality

2008: Global tipping point in the foreign land acquistions

Foreign land acquisitions in the Nile Basin: not a new phenomen

• Sudan, the breadbasket• Colonial times + 1970/80s• Commercial/mechanised agriculture• Market-oriented agriculture• Priority for food production?• 1980s: famine crisis in Sudan• Breadbasket dream failed

New land acquisitions in the Nile Basin

• Since 2008

• What is being produced? • Who are the ‘dealers’?• Political process

• Status of land leased/developed

• Main challenges

New land deals: what and who is involved?

SugarcaneBiofuels

Cotton

Foreign investors (private and public): Gulf countries, India, China, US and EU - and Egypt

‘National’ investors: agri-business companies, diaspora, etc

National governments: federal and regional level

Rice

Palm Oil Flowers

Coffee/Tea

Corn, wheat, alfafa,

groundnuts

Political process: advantages for ‘investors’

• Fertile land and and water available•Long-term land leases• Market liberalisation• Cheap labour• Low land rents• Tax exemptions• Support from the national governments• Policy framework for intensification of commercial agriculture

• No limits on water use•Often access to existing infrastructures• Possibility to build hydraulic infrastructure•Free access to the water resources (KEY)

ACCESS TO UNTAPPED WATER RESOURCES

Political process: Benefits for host countries

• Development of ‘unused’ productive land• Technology transfer• Infrastructure improvements• Employment• Macroeconomic investment/growth

Leased(millions of hectares of land)

50%Impacts?

Status of land leased/developed?

<10%

New foreign land acquisitions:main challenges

• Customary uses and rights

• Agriculture vs. Pastoralism

• Local food security

• Monoculture• Deforestation, soil

quality• Water flow regimes

• Local resource-based conflicts

• Transboundary impacts• Power balance

• Policy options: macro/micro

• National food security• Sustainbale

development

Socio-Economic

Environmental

Political/Security

Development

Land, development and peace

National development imperatives/sovereignty

Global development perspectives: international markets

Peace and security in host countries

Regional Peace and security

Missing link: regional approach

Nile Basin:Transboundary dimension of the new land deals

• Land and water nexus

• Water allocation for agriculture development – what, where and how?

• Positive: Awareness of agriculture potential – new opportunities for trade and new markets

• Negative: Old grievances about water for agriculture

Conclusion

• New land deals: tipping point in the Nile agricultural development?

• Large vs. Small-scale agriculture: benefits and challenges

• Food-crops vs. Cash-crops: benefits and challenges

• Peace and Security: local-national-regional conflict nexus

• Regional approach to agricultural development in the Nile Basin?

Thanks for your attention!ana.cascao@siwi.org