Case Study 3 – China’s One Child Policy

Chinese Demographics

More people live in China than the combined population of: Europe North America South America Japan

Any population change in China has global impact: 1980s: About 14-17 million people were added each year 1990s: Average of 13 million people were added each year 2000s: 10 million people per year

Towns and Cities 400 million live in cites 30-35% of the population (58% in the US live in cities)

rural (countryside) areas 950 million live in the countryside 64% of the population (42% in the US live outside of large cities)

The Population of China0-2050 AD

105 755 10831210

1381 15621650 1753

18121851

18871911

19491953

1970

1981

19952000

2050

2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 500 1000 1500 2000

1 Billion

1.2 Billion

1.4 Billion

1.6 Billion

600 million

200 million

800 million

400 million

Chinese Population, 1949-2000 (projections to 2050)

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045500 million

900 million

700 million

1.3 billion

1.1 billion

1.5 billion

Population of Selected Chinese Provinces, 1998

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Sichuan

Nigeria

Mexico

Henan

Shandong

Germany

Jiangsu

Philippines

Iran

Hebei

Hunan

Egypt

Italy

United Kingdom

FranceKEY

Grey Bars- Foreign countriesRed Bars- Chinese states

Chinese Demographics Problems with controlling

population growth:1. The population grew very

quickly after 1949.2. Population control was not

seen as important as setting up a communist government.

3. Mao Zedong saw population growth as a good way to fight the Soviet Union and the United States.

4. The Communists called on women to “breed for the motherland”.

One Child Policy propaganda poster

Chinese Demographics

Population distribution Excessive concentration in

the eastern part of China 50% of the population lives

on 8.2% of the land. Bulk of the population lives

along the coast. East China accounts for

90% of the population. 56%, about 728 million, are

living in mountainous areas.

The majority of Chinese live in the area that is circled in the

East.

Chinese Demographics1990 and 2000 Census1990 Counted 1.134 billion Chinese in China. Population was moving to the cities

The percentage of urban (city) population had increased from 20.6% in 1982 to 26.2% by 1990.

An increase of 5.6% in just eight years. Why did so many people move to the cities?

Jobs Greater opportunity Government’s departure from socialist methods of production in the

secondary sector.

Results of the 2000 census Go to:

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=sp_pop_totl&idim=country:CHN&q=china+population+statistics

Chinese Demographics

Current issues Population growth hurts Chinese development in:

Education Health Transportation

Acceleration of urbanization at the expense of farmland loss of 10% of China’s farmland since 1978

About 10 million people reach the employment market each year.

Acres of Farmland per Person

0.25

0.79

0.37

0.42

0.3

0.96

2.05

0.2

0.82

0.35

0.59

0.22

0.67

1.66

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

China

Brazil

Germany

India

Indonesia

Nigeria

US

1994-19961979-1981

Family Planning Prior to the One Child Policy

Early 1970s: “later-longer-fewer program”. Age of marriage

25 for men 23 for women

Reasoning? Wait later to begin their families allow for longer spacing in between children have fewer children overall.

Began to reduce fertility levels. Problem? Not fast enough to really slow down population growth due

to the momentum that had already developed. End of 1970s: “One is best, at most two, never a third”

Government began to promote the two-child family throughout the country.

Problem? Slogan Contributed to fertility decline but, again, not rapidly enough.

One Child Policy Launched in 1981 when the population

reached 1 billion. Initial goal: Stabilize China’s

population at 1.2 billion. Revised goal: Keep China’s population

under 1.4 billion until 2010. Population expected to stabilize

around 1.6 billion by 2050. Under the responsibility of the State

Family Planning Commission (SFPC). Great variations in performance

between the country’s urban and rural areas.

Easier to enforce in China because it was a totalitarian state Would have been impossible in most

other places.

One Child Policy propaganda poster

Family Planning

Regulations of the policy Employers and neighborhood committees had to enforce

guidelines. 1) Young people needed permission to get married:

25 years for male and 23 years for female. Students and apprentices are not allowed to marry until they finish

their studies. 2) The government monitored women’s menstrual cycles. 3) The use of birth control was required by the government:

UID used for women with already one child. Incentives for sterilization after the birth of the first child. Couples with two or more children had to have one partner sterilized

(women 80% of the time). 4) All pregnancies must be authorized:

Unauthorized pregnancies had to be aborted. 7th, 8th or 9th month abortions are legal.

Family Planning

Incentives offered to couples with only one child: Monthly allowances paid to couples with only one child. Child entitled to free educational and medical services.

Disincentives (penalties) used to discourage larger families: Fine up to 15% of annual income. Couples forced to give up all privileges if a second child was

born and had to repay any cash awards it had received. A third child denied free education, subsidized food, and

housing privileges. A third child’s parents would be penalized with a 10%

reduction in wages.

Family Planning

Urban areas or cities Small sized apartments. Improving one’s status and level of consumption. Easier control from the government.

Rural areas or the countryside Families want more children to work the family plots and

support their parents when they get old. Want sons who will continue the family line and provide

ritual sacrifices to their ancestors after they die. Daughters are leaving their family once they marry. Girls account for only 20 to 30% of a new demographic

class in some areas.

Percentage of Women Having More Than One Child, 1998

5.1

0.19

0

2.16

3.68

12.32

4.19

26.58

21.55

0 10 20 30

National

Beijing

Shanghai

Jiangsu

Fujian

Guangdong

Sichuan

Tibet

Xinjiang The One Child Policy has:

Prevented about 300 million births since 1980.

When the program began (1970), Crude Birth Rate was 34 and TFR was around 6.

Been brought down to 10 (CBR) and 1.7 (TFR).

About 40% of Chinese women have been sterilized.

Only about 5% of women have more than one child.

Chinese Fertility Rate, 1949-1998(TFR means the # of Children Born per

Woman)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

TF

R

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Nat

ural

Incr

ease

TFRNatural Increase

Family Planning

Imbalanced sex ratio Male children are more valued. 120 boys for 100 girls (national average). Abandon or abortion of females. “Missing female population” as girls are not declared. 2000: About 900,000 girls were missing (0 to 4 years group). Only 1% of females are unmarried by the age of 30.

Psychological consequences: Currently around 70 million single child. 4-2-1 syndrome (4 grand parents – 2 parents – 1 child):

“Little emperors” or “little empresses”. Self-centrism. Pressure to succeed.

Family Planning A new family planning law

started in 2002. Same goal than the One-child

policy, but offer more flexibility: One child, but permission may be

granted for a second under specific circumstances.

Late marriage and childbearing. More flexibility for provinces,

autonomous regions and minorities.

People in reproductive age have to use contraception (birth control).

Provisions for sex-determination and sex-specific abortions.

Population Planning in China

What would have happened if the One Child Policy was not applied? Population by 2000 would have reached 1.6 billion (instead

of 1.3). Annual increase would be 40 million (instead of 17-19). Require much higher level of economic development.

The total population will continue to increase Even if the natural growth rate can be lowered to 1% by

2005. Annual increase of population will still be more than 10

million. This trend would continue to increase in the next 50 years. Even with effective family planning, China’s population will not

stabilize until it reaches 1.5-1.6 billion by 2050.

Population Planning in China

Improve the quality of the population Education and health.

2.5 million students entered Universities in 2001. Tremendous incurred costs.

Potential surplus labor in rural areas (countryside) 2 Causes?

development of the rural economy higher rate of birth.

Large numbers of surplus (extra) rural labor who will need to transfer from the agricultural to a non-agricultural field.

Speed urbanization of the population and create bigger pressure on cities and towns.

Population Planning in China

Aging of the population Persons 65 years and older represent about 7

percent of the population. In the 21st century, China’s population will

continue this aging trend. 65 years old or older numbering 250 million by the

year 2040. Providing social security and services to a huge

elderly population.