case study forecasting aggreggate dan disaggregate

Case StudyTI 312221 Sept 2006

Forecasting : Apparel IndustryDemand(1000 parka)a.Hitung peramalan penjualan produk fashion untuk 4 kwartal selama tahun ketiga.b.Lakukan verifikasi metoda peramalan yang digunakan pada bagian a.

Sheet1

Data penjualan

KwartalTahun pertamaTahun kedua

13042

24858

36074

43544

N4

S1bar43.25

S2bar54.50

b2.81

a-861.53

a-039.03

Tahun ke-1Tahun ke-2

tDtFt=a0+t.bC1=Dt/FttDtFt=a0+t.bC2=Dt/FtC-barCnorm

13041.80.7254253.10.790.750.80

24844.71.0765855.91.041.061.12

36047.51.2677458.71.261.261.34

43550.30.7084461.50.720.710.75

3.784.00

Peramalan

tFt=(a0+t.b)CbarDtFt-DtMREUCL-3UCL-2UCL-1LCL-1LCL-2LCL-3

131.6301.61.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

247.248-0.82.4-0.85.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

359.960-0.1-0.7-0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

435.5350.5-0.60.55.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

540.042-2.02.4-2.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

659.0581.0-3.01.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

774.1740.10.90.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

843.444-0.60.7-0.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

2.1

UCL5.7

LCL-5.7

MR0.3

948.5

1070.9

1188.3

1251.4

a,b,f0.2

d940

c10.80

b82.81

a861.53

a961.50

c9

Sheet1

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3

VERIFIKASI - MOVING RANGE CHART

Sheet2

Demand123456

Jumlah permintaan (dalam 1000 liter)Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8KapasitasTerpakai

Minggu keGrapeStroberryAppricotInventory00.30.60.91.21.5

1100501000.88.93.68.822.122.1

21008080Period 1Regular55.35.65.96.26.5

320010015030.94030.9

415012080Over time88.38.68.99.29.5

5200508080.0

6200100100Period 2Regular55.35.65.96.2

Safety stock1503010032.97.14040.0

Initial inventory200100150Over time88.38.68.99.2

Standard9.87.26.980.0

Period 3Regular55.35.65.9

Konversi demand dan initial inventory dalam jam produksi40.04040.0

Jam produksi (=demand / filling rate)Over time88.38.68.9

Jumlah permintaan (dalam 1000 liter)80.0

Minggu keGrapeStroberryAppricotTotalPersentasePeriod 4Regular55.35.6

110.26.914.531.640.04040.0

210.211.111.632.9Over time88.38.6

320.413.921.756.080.0

415.316.711.643.6Period 5Regular55.3

520.46.911.638.938.94038.9

620.413.914.548.8Over time88.3

Sub total96.969.485.5251.980.0

Persentase38.5%27.6%33.9%100.0%Period 6Regular5

40.04040.0

Safety stock15.34.214.534.0Over time8

Initial inventory20.413.921.756.080.0

Available inventory22.1Alokasi31.632.956.043.638.948.8

0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Filling rate aggregate8.1

Biaya10

Bunga0.2

1 tahun = minggu52

Biaya persediaan/jam/minggu0.3Rp Juta /jam-kerja/minggu

Biaya regular time5Rp juta/jam

Biaya over time8Rp juta/jam

Setup

Grape50Rp juta/setup

Strawberry40Rp juta/setup

Apricot20Rp juta/setup

Aggregate Planning (jam operasi)

123456

Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8

Init. Inv56.055.362.446.342.842.8

Produksi

Regular30.940.040.040.038.940.0

Over time0.00.00.00.00.00.0

End Inv55.362.446.342.842.834.0

Cost estimation

Regular cost154.4200.0200.0200.0194.7200.0

Overtime cost0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Inv.cot13.514.815.913.412.712.9

Total167.9214.8215.9213.4207.5212.9

Cummulative167.9382.7598.7812.11019.61232.5

ProdukIni.InvDemandKijSSijExp.quantNoteLBUB

Grape2001000.1020408163150100Prod5.1035.71

Strawberry100500.13888888893050Not

Apricot1501000.144927536210050Prod7.2540.58

Jumlah12.3576.29

Famili disaggregation

x*30.9

SiKij*DijSqrt(Si*Kij*Dij)y11

Grape5010.2022.5923.1

Apricot202.907.617.8

total30.20

Item disaggregation

Karena jumlah item hanya satu maka

y Grape226.3kilo liter

y Apricot53.7kilo liter

Sheet3

Bottling Company : Aggregate Planning and Master Production Schedulea. Buatlah rencana agregat yang optimum.b. Hitung jadwal induk produksi hanya untuk minggu pertama.

Sheet1

Data penjualan


13042

24858

36074

43544

N4

S1bar43.25

S2bar54.50

b2.81

a-861.53

a-039.03



13041.80.7254253.10.790.750.80

24844.71.0765855.91.041.061.12

36047.51.2677458.71.261.261.34

43550.30.7084461.50.720.710.75

3.784.00

Peramalan

tFt=(a0+t.b)CbarDtFt-DtMREUCL-3UCL-2UCL-1LCL-1LCL-2LCL-3

131.6301.61.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

247.248-0.82.4-0.85.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

359.960-0.1-0.7-0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

435.5350.5-0.60.55.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

540.042-2.02.4-2.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

659.0581.0-3.01.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

774.1740.10.90.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

843.444-0.60.7-0.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

2.1

UCL5.7

LCL-5.7

MR0.3

948.5

1070.9

1188.3

1251.4

a,b,f0.2

d940

c10.80

b82.81

a861.53

a961.50

c9

Sheet1

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3


Sheet2

Demand123456



1100501000.88.93.68.822.122.1

21008080Period 1Regular55.35.65.96.26.5

320010015030.94030.9

415012080Over time88.38.68.99.29.5

5200508080.0

6200100100Period 2Regular55.35.65.96.2

Safety stock1503010032.97.14040.0

Initial inv200100150Over time88.38.68.99.2

Filling rate9.87.26.980.0

Period 3Regular55.35.65.9

Konversi demand dan initial inventory dalam jam produksi40.04040.0



Minggu keGrapeStroberryAppricotTotalPersentasePeriod 4Regular55.35.6

110.26.914.531.640.04040.0

210.211.111.632.9Over time88.38.6

320.413.921.756.080.0

415.316.711.643.6Period 5Regular55.3

520.46.911.638.938.94038.9

620.413.914.548.8Over time88.3

Sub total96.969.485.5251.980.0

Persentase38.5%27.6%33.9%100.0%Period 6Regular5

40.04040.0


Initial inv20.413.921.756.080.0


0.00.00.00.00.00.0


Biaya10

Bunga0.2

1 tahun = minggu52




Setup





123456

Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8

Init. Inv56.055.362.446.342.842.8

Produksi

Regular30.940.040.040.038.940.0

Over time0.00.00.00.00.00.0

End Inv55.362.446.342.842.834.0

Cost estimation

Regular cost154.4200.0200.0200.0194.7200.0

Overtime cost0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Inv.cot13.514.815.913.412.712.9

Total167.9214.8215.9213.4207.5212.9

Cummulative167.9382.7598.7812.11019.61232.5

ProdukIni.InvDemandKijSSijExp.quantNoteLBUB

Grape2001000.1020408163150100Prod5.1035.71

Strawberry100500.13888888893050Not

Apricot1501000.144927536210050Prod7.2540.58

Jumlah12.3576.29


x*30.9

SiKij*DijSqrt(Si*Kij*Dij)y11

Grape5010.2022.5923.1

Apricot202.907.617.8

total30.20

Item disaggregation


y Grape226.3kilo liter

y Apricot53.7kilo liter

Sheet3

Solusi Forcasting 1.aLangkah pemecahan masalah peramalan :Plot data untuk menduga metoda peramalan yang sesuaiEstimasi nilai parameter dari metod peramalan.Hitung nilai peramalan

i) Plot DataPilih metoda peramalan Winter

Chart1

30

48

60

35

42

58

74

44

(Triwulanan)

(ribu parka)

Plot Data Penjualan

No.1

Solusi Jawaban no.1

Data penjualan


130423048603542587444

24858

36074

43544

a. Estimasi parameter peramalan winter

N4

S1bar43.25

S2bar54.50

b2.81

a-861.53

a-039.03(Nilai 5)

Hitung nilai Cnorm



13041.80.7254253.10.790.750.80

24844.71.0765855.91.041.061.12

36047.51.2677458.71.261.261.34

43550.30.7084461.50.720.710.75

3.784.00

Peramalan 4 kwartal tahun ke-3(Nilai 5)

tFt=(a0+t.b)Cbar

948.5

1070.9

1188.3

1251.4(Nilai 5)

b. Verifikasi

tFt=(a0+t.b)CbarDtFt-DtMR

131.6301.6

247.248-0.82.4

359.960-0.1-0.7

435.5350.5-0.6

540.042-2.02.4

659.0581.0-3.0

774.1740.10.9

843.444-0.60.7(Nilai 5)

2.1

UCL5.7

LCL-5.7

MR0.3(Nilai 5)

EUCL-3UCL-2UCL-1LCL-1LCL-2LCL-3

1.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.85.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.55.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-2.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

1.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

Tidak ada data yang out of controlMetoda peramalan valid(Nilai 5)

No.1

1.55032371985.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

-0.83566238125.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

-0.08887706235.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

0.47765363135.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

-1.96713965655.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

1.04618614425.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

0.10994075055.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

-0.58452454945.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3


No,2

(Triwulanan)

(ribu parka)

Plot Data Penjualan

Sheet3

DemandMinggu123456



1100501000.88.93.68.822.122.1

21008080Minggu 1Regular55.35.65.96.26.5

320010015030.94030.9

415012080Over time88.38.68.99.29.5

5200508080.0

6200100100Minggu 2Regular55.35.65.96.2

Safety stock1503010032.97.14040.0



Minggu 3Regular55.35.65.9

Agregasi : Konversi demand dan initial inventory dalam jam produksi40.04040.0



Minggu keGrapeStroberryAppricotTotalMinggu 4Regular55.35.6

110.26.914.531.640.04040.0

210.211.111.632.9Over time88.38.6

320.413.921.756.080.0

415.316.711.643.6Minggu 5Regular55.3

520.46.911.638.938.94038.9

620.413.914.548.8Over time88.3

Sub total96.969.485.5251.980.0

Persentase38.5%27.6%33.9%100.0%Minggu 6Regular5

40.04040.0


Initial inv20.413.921.756.080.0


Data biaya


Biaya10

Bunga0.2

1 tahun = minggu52




Setup





Minggu ke-123456

Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8

Init. Inv56.055.362.446.342.842.8

Produksi

Regular30.940.040.040.038.940.0

Over time0.00.00.00.00.00.0

End Inv55.362.446.342.842.834.0

Cost estimation

Regular cost154.4200.0200.0200.0194.7200.0

Overtime cost0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Inv.cot13.514.815.913.412.712.9

Total167.9214.8215.9213.4207.5212.9

Cummulative167.9382.7598.7812.11019.61232.5

ProdukIni.InvDemandKiSsiExp.quantNoteLBUB

Grape2001000.1020408163150100Prod5.1035.71

Strawberry100500.13888888893050Not

Apricot1501000.144927536210050Prod7.2540.58

Jumlah12.3576.29


x*30.9jam

SiKij*Di,1Sqrt(Si*Ki*Dj,1)yi

Grape5010.2022.5923.1

Apricot202.907.617.8

total30.20

Item disaggregation


y Grape = y1/ K1 =226.3kilo liter

y Apricot = y3/K3 =53.7kilo liter

ii) Estimasi Parameter

No.1

Solusi Jawaban no.1

Data penjualan


130423048603542587444

24858

36074

43544


N4

S1bar43.25

S2bar54.50

b2.81

a-861.53

a-039.03(Nilai 5)

Hitung nilai Cnorm



13041.80.7254253.10.790.750.80

24844.71.0765855.91.041.061.12

36047.51.2677458.71.261.261.34

43550.30.7084461.50.720.710.75

3.784.00

(Nilai 5)

Peramalan 4 kwartal tahun ke-3

tFt=(a0+t.b)Cbar

948.5

1070.9

1188.3

1251.4(Nilai 5)

b. Verifikasi


131.6301.6

247.248-0.82.4

359.960-0.1-0.7

435.5350.5-0.6

540.042-2.02.4

659.0581.0-3.0

774.1740.10.9

843.444-0.60.7(Nilai 5)

2.1

UCL5.7

LCL-5.7

MR0.3(Nilai 5)


1.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.85.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.55.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-2.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

1.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68


No.1

1.55032371985.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

-0.83566238125.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

-0.08887706235.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

0.47765363135.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

-1.96713965655.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

1.04618614425.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

0.10994075055.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

-0.58452454945.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3


No,2

(Triwulanan)

(ribu parka)

Plot Data Penjualan

Sheet3

DemandMinggu123456



1100501000.88.93.68.822.122.1

21008080Minggu 1Regular55.35.65.96.26.5

320010015030.94030.9

415012080Over time88.38.68.99.29.5

5200508080.0

6200100100Minggu 2Regular55.35.65.96.2

Safety stock1503010032.97.14040.0








110.26.914.531.640.04040.0

210.211.111.632.9Over time88.38.6

320.413.921.756.080.0

415.316.711.643.6Minggu 5Regular55.3

520.46.911.638.938.94038.9

620.413.914.548.8Over time88.3

Sub total96.969.485.5251.980.0


40.04040.0


Initial inv20.413.921.756.080.0


Data biaya


Biaya10

Bunga0.2

1 tahun = minggu52




Setup





Minggu ke-123456

Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8

Init. Inv56.055.362.446.342.842.8

Produksi

Regular30.940.040.040.038.940.0

Over time0.00.00.00.00.00.0

End Inv55.362.446.342.842.834.0

Cost estimation

Regular cost154.4200.0200.0200.0194.7200.0

Overtime cost0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Inv.cot13.514.815.913.412.712.9

Total167.9214.8215.9213.4207.5212.9

Cummulative167.9382.7598.7812.11019.61232.5


Grape2001000.1020408163150100Prod5.1035.71

Strawberry100500.13888888893050Not

Apricot1501000.144927536210050Prod7.2540.58

Jumlah12.3576.29


x*30.9jam


Grape5010.2022.5923.1

Apricot202.907.617.8

total30.20

Item disaggregation




iii) Peramalan

No.1

Solusi Jawaban no.1

Data penjualan


130423048603542587444

24858

36074

43544


N4

S1bar43.25

S2bar54.50

b2.81

a-861.53

a-039.03(Nilai 5)

Hitung nilai Cnorm



13041.80.7254253.10.790.750.80

24844.71.0765855.91.041.061.12

36047.51.2677458.71.261.261.34

43550.30.7084461.50.720.710.75

3.784.00

(Nilai 5)


tFt=(a8+(t-8).b)Cbar

948.5

1070.9

1188.3

1251.4(Nilai 5)

b. Verifikasi


131.6301.6

247.248-0.82.4

359.960-0.1-0.7

435.5350.5-0.6

540.042-2.02.4

659.0581.0-3.0

774.1740.10.9

843.444-0.60.7(Nilai 5)

2.1

UCL5.7

LCL-5.7

MR0.3(Nilai 5)


1.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.85.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.55.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-2.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

1.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68


No.1

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3


No,2

(Triwulanan)

(ribu parka)

Plot Data Penjualan

Sheet3

DemandMinggu123456



1100501000.88.93.68.822.122.1

21008080Minggu 1Regular55.35.65.96.26.5

320010015030.94030.9

415012080Over time88.38.68.99.29.5

5200508080.0

6200100100Minggu 2Regular55.35.65.96.2

Safety stock1503010032.97.14040.0








110.26.914.531.640.04040.0

210.211.111.632.9Over time88.38.6

320.413.921.756.080.0

415.316.711.643.6Minggu 5Regular55.3

520.46.911.638.938.94038.9

620.413.914.548.8Over time88.3

Sub total96.969.485.5251.980.0


40.04040.0


Initial inv20.413.921.756.080.0


Data biaya


Biaya10

Bunga0.2

1 tahun = minggu52




Setup





Minggu ke-123456

Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8

Init. Inv56.055.362.446.342.842.8

Produksi

Regular30.940.040.040.038.940.0

Over time0.00.00.00.00.00.0

End Inv55.362.446.342.842.834.0

Cost estimation

Regular cost154.4200.0200.0200.0194.7200.0

Overtime cost0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Inv.cot13.514.815.913.412.712.9

Total167.9214.8215.9213.4207.5212.9

Cummulative167.9382.7598.7812.11019.61232.5


Grape2001000.1020408163150100Prod5.1035.71

Strawberry100500.13888888893050Not

Apricot1501000.144927536210050Prod7.2540.58

Jumlah12.3576.29


x*30.9jam


Grape5010.2022.5923.1

Apricot202.907.617.8

total30.20

Item disaggregation




Langkah pemecahan 1.bHitung nilai peramalan untuk t=1 s/d8Hitung selisih (E) antara nilai peramalan-demand actualHitung Moving Range (MR)Hitung UCL dan LCLPlot data (E)Identifikasi ada/tidaknya data out of control

No.1

Solusi Jawaban no.1

Data penjualan


130423048603542587444

24858

36074

43544


N4

S1bar43.25

S2bar54.50

b2.81

a-861.53

a-039.03(Nilai 5)

Hitung nilai Cnorm



13041.80.7254253.10.790.750.80

24844.71.0765855.91.041.061.12

36047.51.2677458.71.261.261.34

43550.30.7084461.50.720.710.75

3.784.00

(Nilai 5)



948.5

1070.9

1188.3

1251.4(Nilai 5)

b. Verifikasi


131.6301.6

247.248-0.82.4

359.960-0.1-0.7

435.5350.5-0.6

540.042-2.02.4

659.0581.0-3.0

774.1740.10.9

843.444-0.60.7(Nilai 5)

2.1

UCL5.7

LCL-5.7

MR0.3(Nilai 5)


1.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.85.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.55.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-2.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

1.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68


No.1

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3


No,2

(Triwulanan)

(ribu parka)

Plot Data Penjualan

Sheet3

DemandMinggu123456



1100501000.88.93.68.822.122.1

21008080Minggu 1Regular55.35.65.96.26.5

320010015030.94030.9

415012080Over time88.38.68.99.29.5

5200508080.0

6200100100Minggu 2Regular55.35.65.96.2

Safety stock1503010032.97.14040.0








110.26.914.531.640.04040.0

210.211.111.632.9Over time88.38.6

320.413.921.756.080.0

415.316.711.643.6Minggu 5Regular55.3

520.46.911.638.938.94038.9

620.413.914.548.8Over time88.3

Sub total96.969.485.5251.980.0


40.04040.0


Initial inv20.413.921.756.080.0


Data biaya


Biaya10

Bunga0.2

1 tahun = minggu52




Setup





Minggu ke-123456

Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8

Init. Inv56.055.362.446.342.842.8

Produksi

Regular30.940.040.040.038.940.0

Over time0.00.00.00.00.00.0

End Inv55.362.446.342.842.834.0

Cost estimation

Regular cost154.4200.0200.0200.0194.7200.0

Overtime cost0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Inv.cot13.514.815.913.412.712.9

Total167.9214.8215.9213.4207.5212.9

Cummulative167.9382.7598.7812.11019.61232.5


Grape2001000.1020408163150100Prod5.1035.71

Strawberry100500.13888888893050Not

Apricot1501000.144927536210050Prod7.2540.58

Jumlah12.3576.29


x*30.9jam


Grape5010.2022.5923.1

Apricot202.907.617.8

total30.20

Item disaggregation




Plot error dan kesimpulan

Chart2

1.55032371985.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

-0.83566238125.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

-0.08887706235.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

0.47765363135.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

-1.96713965655.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

1.04618614425.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

0.10994075055.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

-0.58452454945.67869639623.78579759751.8928987987-1.8928987987-3.7857975975-5.6786963962

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3


No.1

Solusi Jawaban no.1

Data penjualan


130423048603542587444

24858

36074

43544


N4

S1bar43.25

S2bar54.50

b2.81

a-861.53

a-039.03(Nilai 5)

Hitung nilai Cnorm



13041.80.7254253.10.790.750.80

24844.71.0765855.91.041.061.12

36047.51.2677458.71.261.261.34

43550.30.7084461.50.720.710.75

3.784.00

(Nilai 5)



948.5

1070.9

1188.3

1251.4(Nilai 5)

b. Verifikasi


131.6301.6

247.248-0.82.4

359.960-0.1-0.7

435.5350.5-0.6

540.042-2.02.4

659.0581.0-3.0

774.1740.10.9

843.444-0.60.7(Nilai 5)

2.1

UCL5.7

LCL-5.7

MR0.3(Nilai 5)


1.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.85.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.55.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-2.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

1.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68


No.1

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3


No,2

(Triwulanan)

(ribu parka)

Plot Data Penjualan

Sheet3

DemandMinggu123456



1100501000.88.93.68.822.122.1

21008080Minggu 1Regular55.35.65.96.26.5

320010015030.94030.9

415012080Over time88.38.68.99.29.5

5200508080.0

6200100100Minggu 2Regular55.35.65.96.2

Safety stock1503010032.97.14040.0








110.26.914.531.640.04040.0

210.211.111.632.9Over time88.38.6

320.413.921.756.080.0

415.316.711.643.6Minggu 5Regular55.3

520.46.911.638.938.94038.9

620.413.914.548.8Over time88.3

Sub total96.969.485.5251.980.0


40.04040.0


Initial inv20.413.921.756.080.0


Data biaya


Biaya10

Bunga0.2

1 tahun = minggu52




Setup





Minggu ke-123456

Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8

Init. Inv56.055.362.446.342.842.8

Produksi

Regular30.940.040.040.038.940.0

Over time0.00.00.00.00.00.0

End Inv55.362.446.342.842.834.0

Cost estimation

Regular cost154.4200.0200.0200.0194.7200.0

Overtime cost0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Inv.cot13.514.815.913.412.712.9

Total167.9214.8215.9213.4207.5212.9

Cummulative167.9382.7598.7812.11019.61232.5


Grape2001000.1020408163150100Prod5.1035.71

Strawberry100500.13888888893050Not

Apricot1501000.144927536210050Prod7.2540.58

Jumlah12.3576.29


x*30.9jam


Grape5010.2022.5923.1

Apricot202.907.617.8

total30.20

Item disaggregation




No.1

Solusi Jawaban no.1

Data penjualan


130423048603542587444

24858

36074

43544


N4

S1bar43.25

S2bar54.50

b2.81

a-861.53

a-039.03(Nilai 5)

Hitung nilai Cnorm



13041.80.7254253.10.790.750.80

24844.71.0765855.91.041.061.12

36047.51.2677458.71.261.261.34

43550.30.7084461.50.720.710.75

3.784.00

(Nilai 5)



948.5

1070.9

1188.3

1251.4(Nilai 5)

b. Verifikasi


131.6301.6

247.248-0.82.4

359.960-0.1-0.7

435.5350.5-0.6

540.042-2.02.4

659.0581.0-3.0

774.1740.10.9

843.444-0.60.7(Nilai 5)

2.1

UCL5.7

LCL-5.7

MR0.3(Nilai 5)


1.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.85.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.55.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-2.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

1.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68


No.1

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3


No,2

(Triwulanan)

(ribu parka)

Plot Data Penjualan

Sheet3

DemandMinggu123456



1100501000.88.93.68.822.122.1

21008080Minggu 1Regular55.35.65.96.26.5

320010015030.94030.9

415012080Over time88.38.68.99.29.5

5200508080.0

6200100100Minggu 2Regular55.35.65.96.2

Safety stock1503010032.97.14040.0








110.26.914.531.640.04040.0

210.211.111.632.9Over time88.38.6

320.413.921.756.080.0

415.316.711.643.6Minggu 5Regular55.3

520.46.911.638.938.94038.9

620.413.914.548.8Over time88.3

Sub total96.969.485.5251.980.0


40.04040.0


Initial inv20.413.921.756.080.0


Data biaya


Biaya10

Bunga0.2

1 tahun = minggu52




Setup





Minggu ke-123456

Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8

Init. Inv56.055.362.446.342.842.8

Produksi

Regular30.940.040.040.038.940.0

Over time0.00.00.00.00.00.0

End Inv55.362.446.342.842.834.0

Cost estimation

Regular cost154.4200.0200.0200.0194.7200.0

Overtime cost0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Inv.cot13.514.815.913.412.712.9

Total167.9214.8215.9213.4207.5212.9

Cummulative167.9382.7598.7812.11019.61232.5


Grape2001000.1020408163150100Prod5.1035.71

Strawberry100500.13888888893050Not

Apricot1501000.144927536210050Prod7.2540.58

Jumlah12.3576.29


x*30.9jam


Grape5010.2022.5923.1

Apricot202.907.617.8

total30.20

Item disaggregation




Aggregate planningTentukan satuan aggregate jamHitung satuan biaya produksi dan inventory per jam-produksiAlokasi demand ke kapasitas produksi yang tersedia cara transportasiSusun aggregate planning

No.1

Solusi Jawaban no.1

Data penjualan


130423048603542587444

24858

36074

43544


N4

S1bar43.25

S2bar54.50

b2.81

a-861.53

a-039.03(Nilai 5)

Hitung nilai Cnorm



13041.80.7254253.10.790.750.80

24844.71.0765855.91.041.061.12

36047.51.2677458.71.261.261.34

43550.30.7084461.50.720.710.75

3.784.00

(Nilai 5)



948.5

1070.9

1188.3

1251.4(Nilai 5)

b. Verifikasi


131.6301.6

247.248-0.82.4

359.960-0.1-0.7

435.5350.5-0.6

540.042-2.02.4

659.0581.0-3.0

774.1740.10.9

843.444-0.60.7(Nilai 5)

2.1

UCL5.7

LCL-5.7

MR0.3(Nilai 5)


1.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.85.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.55.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-2.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

1.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68


No.1

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3


No,2

(Triwulanan)

(ribu parka)

Plot Data Penjualan

Sheet3

DemandMinggu123456



1100501000.88.93.68.822.122.1

21008080Minggu 1Regular55.35.65.96.26.5

320010015030.94030.9

415012080Over time88.38.68.99.29.5

5200508080.0

6200100100Minggu 2Regular55.35.65.96.2

Safety stock1503010032.97.14040.0








110.26.914.531.640.04040.0

210.211.111.632.9Over time88.38.6

320.413.921.756.080.0

415.316.711.643.6Minggu 5Regular55.3

520.46.911.638.938.94038.9

620.413.914.548.8Over time88.3

Sub total96.969.485.5251.980.0


40.04040.0


Initial inv20.413.921.756.080.0

Available inventory22.1Alokasi31.632.956.043.638.948.8Nilai 15

Nilai 10

Data biaya


Biaya10

Bunga0.2

1 tahun = minggu52




Setup



Apricot20Rp juta/setupNilai 5


Minggu ke-123456

Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8

Init. Inv56.055.362.446.342.842.8

Produksi

Regular30.940.040.040.038.940.0

Over time0.00.00.00.00.00.0

End Inv55.362.446.342.842.834.0

Cost estimation

Regular cost154.4200.0200.0200.0194.7200.0

Overtime cost0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Inv.cot13.514.815.913.412.712.9

Total167.9214.8215.9213.4207.5212.9

Cummulative167.9382.7598.7812.11019.61232.5

Nila1i 10


Grape2001000.1020408163150100Prod5.1035.71

Strawberry100500.13888888893050Not

Apricot1501000.144927536210050Prod7.2540.58

Jumlah12.3576.29


x*30.9jam


Grape5010.2022.5923.1

Apricot202.907.617.8

total30.20

Item disaggregation




No.1

Solusi Jawaban no.1

Data penjualan


130423048603542587444

24858

36074

43544


N4

S1bar43.25

S2bar54.50

b2.81

a-861.53

a-039.03(Nilai 5)

Hitung nilai Cnorm



13041.80.7254253.10.790.750.80

24844.71.0765855.91.041.061.12

36047.51.2677458.71.261.261.34

43550.30.7084461.50.720.710.75

3.784.00

(Nilai 5)



948.5

1070.9

1188.3

1251.4(Nilai 5)

b. Verifikasi


131.6301.6

247.248-0.82.4

359.960-0.1-0.7

435.5350.5-0.6

540.042-2.02.4

659.0581.0-3.0

774.1740.10.9

843.444-0.60.7(Nilai 5)

2.1

UCL5.7

LCL-5.7

MR0.3(Nilai 5)


1.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.85.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.55.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-2.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

1.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68


No.1

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3


No,2

(Triwulanan)

(ribu parka)

Plot Data Penjualan

Sheet3

DemandMinggu123456



1100501000.88.93.68.822.122.1

21008080Minggu 1Regular55.35.65.96.26.5

320010015030.94030.9

415012080Over time88.38.68.99.29.5

5200508080.0

6200100100Minggu 2Regular55.35.65.96.2

Safety stock1503010032.97.14040.0








110.26.914.531.640.04040.0

210.211.111.632.9Over time88.38.6

320.413.921.756.080.0

415.316.711.643.6Minggu 5Regular55.3

520.46.911.638.938.94038.9

620.413.914.548.8Over time88.3

Sub total96.969.485.5251.980.0


40.04040.0


Initial inv20.413.921.756.080.0


Nilai 10

Data biaya

Filling rate aggregate8.1kilo liter/jam

Biaya10Rp juta/jam

Bunga0.2per tahun

1 tahun = minggu52minggu




Setup





Minggu ke-123456

Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8

Init. Inv56.055.362.446.342.842.8

Produksi

Regular30.940.040.040.038.940.0

Over time0.00.00.00.00.00.0

End Inv55.362.446.342.842.834.0

Cost estimation

Regular cost154.4200.0200.0200.0194.7200.0

Overtime cost0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Inv.cot13.514.815.913.412.712.9

Total167.9214.8215.9213.4207.5212.9

Cummulative167.9382.7598.7812.11019.61232.5

Nila1i 10


Grape2001000.1020408163150100Prod5.1035.71

Strawberry100500.13888888893050Not

Apricot1501000.144927536210050Prod7.2540.58

Jumlah12.3576.29


x*30.9jam


Grape5010.2022.5923.1

Apricot202.907.617.8

total30.20

Item disaggregation




No.1

Solusi Jawaban no.1

Data penjualan


130423048603542587444

24858

36074

43544


N4

S1bar43.25

S2bar54.50

b2.81

a-861.53

a-039.03(Nilai 5)

Hitung nilai Cnorm



13041.80.7254253.10.790.750.80

24844.71.0765855.91.041.061.12

36047.51.2677458.71.261.261.34

43550.30.7084461.50.720.710.75

3.784.00

(Nilai 5)



948.5

1070.9

1188.3

1251.4(Nilai 5)

b. Verifikasi


131.6301.6

247.248-0.82.4

359.960-0.1-0.7

435.5350.5-0.6

540.042-2.02.4

659.0581.0-3.0

774.1740.10.9

843.444-0.60.7(Nilai 5)

2.1

UCL5.7

LCL-5.7

MR0.3(Nilai 5)


1.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.85.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.55.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-2.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

1.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68


No.1

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3


No,2

(Triwulanan)

(ribu parka)

Plot Data Penjualan

Sheet3

DemandMinggu123456



1100501000.88.93.68.822.122.1

21008080Minggu 1Regular55.35.65.96.26.5

320010015030.94030.9

415012080Over time88.38.68.99.29.5

5200508080.0

6200100100Minggu 2Regular55.35.65.96.2

Safety stock1503010032.97.14040.0








110.26.914.531.640.04040.0

210.211.111.632.9Over time88.38.6

320.413.921.756.080.0

415.316.711.643.6Minggu 5Regular55.3

520.46.911.638.938.94038.9

620.413.914.548.8Over time88.3

Sub total96.969.485.5251.980.0


40.04040.0


Initial inv20.413.921.756.080.0


Nilai 10

Data biaya


Biaya10Rp juta/jam

Bunga0.2per tahun





Setup





Minggu ke-123456

Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8

Init. Inv56.055.362.446.342.842.8

Produksi

Regular30.940.040.040.038.940.0

Over time0.00.00.00.00.00.0

End Inv55.362.446.342.842.834.0

Cost estimation

Regular cost154.4200.0200.0200.0194.7200.0

Overtime cost0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Inv.cot13.514.815.913.412.712.9

Total167.9214.8215.9213.4207.5212.9

Cummulative167.9382.7598.7812.11019.61232.5

Nilai 10


Grape2001000.1020408163150100Prod5.1035.71

Strawberry100500.13888888893050Not

Apricot1501000.144927536210050Prod7.2540.58

Jumlah12.3576.29


x*30.9jam


Grape5010.2022.5923.1

Apricot202.907.617.8

total30.20

Item disaggregation




Jadwal Induk produksiDisaggregasi dengan Bitran HaxIdentifikasi famili yang diproduksi dan tentukan nilai UB dan LBFamili disaggregasi : alokasi jam operasi aggregate planning ke masing-masing familiItem disaggregasi : konversi jam operasi famili ke volume kilo liter

i. Identifikasi famili dan UB / LB

No.1

Solusi Jawaban no.1

Data penjualan


130423048603542587444

24858

36074

43544


N4

S1bar43.25

S2bar54.50

b2.81

a-861.53

a-039.03(Nilai 5)

Hitung nilai Cnorm



13041.80.7254253.10.790.750.80

24844.71.0765855.91.041.061.12

36047.51.2677458.71.261.261.34

43550.30.7084461.50.720.710.75

3.784.00

(Nilai 5)



948.5

1070.9

1188.3

1251.4(Nilai 5)

b. Verifikasi


131.6301.6

247.248-0.82.4

359.960-0.1-0.7

435.5350.5-0.6

540.042-2.02.4

659.0581.0-3.0

774.1740.10.9

843.444-0.60.7(Nilai 5)

2.1

UCL5.7

LCL-5.7

MR0.3(Nilai 5)


1.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.85.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.55.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-2.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

1.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68


No.1

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3


No,2

(Triwulanan)

(ribu parka)

Plot Data Penjualan

Sheet3

DemandMinggu123456



1100501000.88.93.68.822.122.1

21008080Minggu 1Regular55.35.65.96.26.5

320010015030.94030.9

415012080Over time88.38.68.99.29.5

5200508080.0

6200100100Minggu 2Regular55.35.65.96.2

Safety stock1503010032.97.14040.0








110.26.914.531.640.04040.0

210.211.111.632.9Over time88.38.6

320.413.921.756.080.0

415.316.711.643.6Minggu 5Regular55.3

520.46.911.638.938.94038.9

620.413.914.548.8Over time88.3

Sub total96.969.485.5251.980.0


40.04040.0


Initial inv20.413.921.756.080.0


Nilai 10

Data biaya


Biaya10Rp juta/jam

Bunga0.2per tahun





Setup





Minggu ke-123456

Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8

Init. Inv56.055.362.446.342.842.8

Produksi

Regular30.940.040.040.038.940.0

Over time0.00.00.00.00.00.0

End Inv55.362.446.342.842.834.0

Cost estimation

Regular cost154.4200.0200.0200.0194.7200.0

Overtime cost0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Inv.cot13.514.815.913.412.712.9

Total167.9214.8215.9213.4207.5212.9

Cummulative167.9382.7598.7812.11019.61232.5

Nilai 10


Grape2001000.1020408163150100Prod5.1035.71

Strawberry100500.13888888893050Not

Apricot1501000.144927536210050Prod7.2540.58

Jumlah12.3576.29

Nilai 10


x*30.9jam


Grape5010.2022.5923.1

Apricot202.907.617.8

total30.20

Nilai 10

Item disaggregation




Nilai 10

No.1

Solusi Jawaban no.1

Data penjualan


130423048603542587444

24858

36074

43544


N4

S1bar43.25

S2bar54.50

b2.81

a-861.53

a-039.03(Nilai 5)

Hitung nilai Cnorm



13041.80.7254253.10.790.750.80

24844.71.0765855.91.041.061.12

36047.51.2677458.71.261.261.34

43550.30.7084461.50.720.710.75

3.784.00

(Nilai 5)



948.5

1070.9

1188.3

1251.4(Nilai 5)

b. Verifikasi


131.6301.6

247.248-0.82.4

359.960-0.1-0.7

435.5350.5-0.6

540.042-2.02.4

659.0581.0-3.0

774.1740.10.9

843.444-0.60.7(Nilai 5)

2.1

UCL5.7

LCL-5.7

MR0.3(Nilai 5)


1.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.85.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.55.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-2.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

1.05.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

0.15.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68

-0.65.683.791.89-1.89-3.79-5.68


No.1

E

UCL-3

UCL-2

UCL-1

LCL-1

LCL-2

LCL-3


No,2

(Triwulanan)

(ribu parka)

Plot Data Penjualan

Sheet3

DemandMinggu123456



1100501000.88.93.68.822.122.1

21008080Minggu 1Regular55.35.65.96.26.5

320010015030.94030.9

415012080Over time88.38.68.99.29.5

5200508080.0

6200100100Minggu 2Regular55.35.65.96.2

Safety stock1503010032.97.14040.0








110.26.914.531.640.04040.0

210.211.111.632.9Over time88.38.6

320.413.921.756.080.0

415.316.711.643.6Minggu 5Regular55.3

520.46.911.638.938.94038.9

620.413.914.548.8Over time88.3

Sub total96.969.485.5251.980.0


40.04040.0


Initial inv20.413.921.756.080.0


Nilai 10

Data biaya


Biaya10Rp juta/jam

Bunga0.2per tahun





Setup





Minggu ke-123456

Demand31.632.956.043.638.948.8

Init. Inv56.055.362.446.342.842.8

Produksi

Regular30.940.040.040.038.940.0

Over time0.00.00.00.00.00.0

End Inv55.362.446.342.842.834.0

Cost estimation

Regular cost154.4200.0200.0200.0194.7200.0

Overtime cost0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Inv.cot13.514.815.913.412.712.9

Total167.9214.8215.9213.4207.5212.9

Cummulative167.9382.7598.7812.11019.61232.5

Nilai 10


Grape2001000.1020408163150100Prod5.1035.71

Strawberry100500.13888888893050Not

Apricot1501000.144927536210050Prod7.2540.58

Jumlah12.3576.29

Nilai 10


x*30.9jam


Grape5010.2022.5923.1

Apricot202.907.617.8

total30.20

Nilai 10

Item disaggregation




Nilai 10

case study forecasting aggreggate dan disaggregate

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