cash flow model-securitization rating
TRANSCRIPT
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Sample Model- Asset Backed Securities
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Tranche A
Tranche B
Tranche C
Tranche D
Structure
Collateral Pool-Borrowers
Originator
Installments
Special Purpose Vehicle
Sell Collateral Pool
Proceeds
Collections Account(Overseen
by Trustee)
Payments from borrowers deposited by Originator
Issue Tranches
Proceeds
Payments passed through in order of Priority to investors
Consideration
Placement of bonds
Investors
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Model information-Cash Flow Analysis
Collateral Pool
Defaults and Prepayment stresses
Rating specific Default and Loss rates and CPR
applied
Cash Flow Waterfall and Priorities of Payments
Purpose•The excel Cash Flow model replicates the waterfall and priorities of payments to generate scenario based pro-forma cash flows.
Scenarios• Each scenario is a rating specific loss scenario that runs from a hypothetical recession from a starting month to ending month.
• A Prepayment stress is also modeled that runs from a start month to an end month. Greater the prepayment rate, lesser the excess spread and more stressful the scenario.
Ultimate Principal• We test for ultimate principal given the pass through nature of the notes .
•A Tranche would pass a rating level if it gets redeemed by its legal final maturity date
Timely Interest• A Tranche passes a rating level if it is paid its interest accrued on all interest payment dates up to its redemption date
Rating Level• A Tranche is assigned a rating if it passes on the above 2 tests at the highest rating level tested
Model Output
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Deal Structure
AssetsStarting Balance Margin Type First Payment Date Maturity Date Maturity(Months) € 100,000,000 7.50% Fixed 15-Jan-16 15-Dec-24 108
LiabilitiesTranche Starting Balance Type Index Margin Subordination
A € 45,000,000 Floating 1 Month Euribor 1.50% 55.00%
B € 25,000,000 Floating 1 Month Euribor 2.00% 30.00%
C € 20,000,000 Floating 1 Month Euribor 3.00% 10.00%D € 10,000,000 Floating 1 Month Euribor 3.50% 0.00%
Total € 100,000,000
Date and timingClosing date 15-Dec-15First notes Payment Date 15-Jan-16Notes Legal Final Maturity date 15-Dec-25Day Count Fraction Actual/360Payment Frequency Monthly
Senior FeesTrustee Fee 0.15%
Servicer Fee 0.20%
Administrative Fee 0.05%Fee charged as a % of the previous' month ending collateral balance
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Deal structureWaterfall Use Interest Proceeds Use Principal Proceeds
1. Trustee Fee 2. Servicer Fee 3. Administrative Fee 4. Tranche A interest 5. Tranche B Interest 6. Tranche C Interest 7. Tranche D Interest 8. Tranche A principal (until Tranche is redeemed) 9. Tranche B principal (until Tranche is redeemed) 10. Tranche C principal (until Tranche is redeemed) 11. Tranche D principal (until Tranche is redeemed) 12. Release to excess spread
Senior Fee Payments
Interest Payments
Principal Payments
Retained by SPV
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Model Assumptions
Recession Simulation
The model stresses cash flows by applying a recession that runs from a start month to an end month. This scenario results in foreclosures-leading to defaults and recoveries applied equally across the months. This has 2 components
PrepaymentsThe model applies prepayments to the collateral pool. Although prepayments accelerate the redemption of the notes, they also reduce the balance faster, resulting in lesser overall interest collections to service the interest on the liabilities This is entered as an annualized value (CPR)
Interest Rates The structure has fixed rate assets-but floating rate liabilities (indexed to 1 month Euribor). An adverse movement in interest rates can increase interest liabilities. Entered as a vector
Default Rate
The proportion of the beginning balance that defaults
Loss Severity
The proportion of the defaulted balance that is lost and not recovered
Net Loss
The proportion of the beginning balance that is lost
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The Rating ProcessRating Level Default Multiple Loss Multiple Defaults Applied Losses Applied Net Loss
AAA 2.7 2.7 95% 68% 63.79%AA 2.2 2.2 77% 55% 42.35%A 2 2 70% 50% 35.00%
BBB 1.5 1.5 53% 38% 19.69%
BB 1.2 1.2 42% 30% 12.60%B 1 1 35% 25% 8.75%
Defaults
Default stresses YesDefaults Applied 42%Losses Applied 30%Defaults and losses start month 1Defaults and losses end month 36
Prepayments
Prepayment stresses YesAnnualized CPR 5%Prepayment start month 1Prepayment end month 36
Model OutputTranche Timely Interest Ultimate Principal
A PASS PASSB PASS PASSC PASS PASSD FAIL FAIL
Rating level dependent stress factors
Constant CPR level of 5% for all scenarios
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Model ResultsB level (base case) – 35% (Default Rate) × 25% ( Loss Severity)
All Tranches pass at this level
01/Jan/1
6
01/Apr/1
6
01/Jul/1
6
01/Oct/
16
01/Jan/1
7
01/Apr/1
7
01/Jul/1
7
01/Oct/
17
01/Jan/1
8
01/Apr/1
8
01/Jul/1
8
01/Oct/
18
01/Jan/1
9
01/Apr/1
9
01/Jul/1
9
01/Oct/
19
01/Jan/2
0
01/Apr/2
0
01/Jul/2
0
01/Oct/
20
01/Jan/2
1
01/Apr/2
1
01/Jul/2
1
01/Oct/
21
01/Jan/2
2
01/Apr/2
2
01/Jul/2
2
01/Oct/
22
01/Jan/2
3
01/Apr/2
3
01/Jul/2
3
01/Oct/
23
01/Jan/2
4
01/Apr/2
4
01/Jul/2
4
01/Oct/2
4 € -
€ 500,000.00
€ 1,000,000.00
€ 1,500,000.00
€ 2,000,000.00
€ 2,500,000.00
€ 3,000,000.00 Collateral Payments
Recoveries Scheduled Principal Prepayments Interest
A
B
C
D
Notes Redemption
A B C D Unpaid Principal
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Model ResultsBB level – 42% (Default Rate) × 30% ( Loss Severity)
Tranches A,B, and C pass at this level
01/Jan/1
6
01/Apr/1
6
01/Jul/1
6
01/Oct/
16
01/Jan/1
7
01/Apr/1
7
01/Jul/1
7
01/Oct/
17
01/Jan/1
8
01/Apr/1
8
01/Jul/1
8
01/Oct/
18
01/Jan/1
9
01/Apr/1
9
01/Jul/1
9
01/Oct/
19
01/Jan/2
0
01/Apr/2
0
01/Jul/2
0
01/Oct/
20
01/Jan/2
1
01/Apr/2
1
01/Jul/2
1
01/Oct/
21
01/Jan/2
2
01/Apr/2
2
01/Jul/2
2
01/Oct/
22
01/Jan/2
3
01/Apr/2
3
01/Jul/2
3
01/Oct/
23
01/Jan/2
4
01/Apr/2
4
01/Jul/2
4
01/Oct/2
4 € -
€ 500,000.00
€ 1,000,000.00
€ 1,500,000.00
€ 2,000,000.00
€ 2,500,000.00
€ 3,000,000.00 Collateral Payments
Recoveries Scheduled Principal Prepayments Interest
A
B
C
D
Notes Redemption
A B C D Unpaid Principal
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Model ResultsBBB level – 53% (Default Rate) × 38% ( Loss Severity)
Tranches A and B pass at this level
01/Jan/1
6
01/Apr/1
6
01/Jul/1
6
01/Oct/
16
01/Jan/1
7
01/Apr/1
7
01/Jul/1
7
01/Oct/
17
01/Jan/1
8
01/Apr/1
8
01/Jul/1
8
01/Oct/
18
01/Jan/1
9
01/Apr/1
9
01/Jul/1
9
01/Oct/
19
01/Jan/2
0
01/Apr/2
0
01/Jul/2
0
01/Oct/
20
01/Jan/2
1
01/Apr/2
1
01/Jul/2
1
01/Oct/
21
01/Jan/2
2
01/Apr/2
2
01/Jul/2
2
01/Oct/
22
01/Jan/2
3
01/Apr/2
3
01/Jul/2
3
01/Oct/
23
01/Jan/2
4
01/Apr/2
4
01/Jul/2
4
01/Oct/2
4 € -
€ 500,000.00
€ 1,000,000.00
€ 1,500,000.00
€ 2,000,000.00
€ 2,500,000.00
€ 3,000,000.00 Collateral Payments
Recoveries Scheduled Principal Prepayments Interest
A
B
C
D
Notes Redemption
A B C D Unpaid Principal
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Model ResultsA level – 70% (Default Rate) × 50% ( Loss Severity)
Tranches A and B pass at this level
01/Jan/1
6
01/Apr/1
6
01/Jul/1
6
01/Oct/
16
01/Jan/1
7
01/Apr/1
7
01/Jul/1
7
01/Oct/
17
01/Jan/1
8
01/Apr/1
8
01/Jul/1
8
01/Oct/
18
01/Jan/1
9
01/Apr/1
9
01/Jul/1
9
01/Oct/
19
01/Jan/2
0
01/Apr/2
0
01/Jul/2
0
01/Oct/
20
01/Jan/2
1
01/Apr/2
1
01/Jul/2
1
01/Oct/
21
01/Jan/2
2
01/Apr/2
2
01/Jul/2
2
01/Oct/
22
01/Jan/2
3
01/Apr/2
3
01/Jul/2
3
01/Oct/
23
01/Jan/2
4
01/Apr/2
4
01/Jul/2
4
01/Oct/2
4 € -
€ 500,000.00
€ 1,000,000.00
€ 1,500,000.00
€ 2,000,000.00
€ 2,500,000.00
€ 3,000,000.00 Collateral Payments
Recoveries Scheduled Principal Prepayments Interest
A
B
C
D
Notes Redemption
A B C D Unpaid Principal
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A
B
C
D
Notes Redemption
A B C D Unpaid Principal
Model ResultsAA level – 77% (Default Rate) × 55% ( Loss Severity)
Only Tranche A passes at this level
01/Jan/1
6
01/Apr/1
6
01/Jul/1
6
01/Oct/
16
01/Jan/1
7
01/Apr/1
7
01/Jul/1
7
01/Oct/
17
01/Jan/1
8
01/Apr/1
8
01/Jul/1
8
01/Oct/
18
01/Jan/1
9
01/Apr/1
9
01/Jul/1
9
01/Oct/
19
01/Jan/2
0
01/Apr/2
0
01/Jul/2
0
01/Oct/
20
01/Jan/2
1
01/Apr/2
1
01/Jul/2
1
01/Oct/
21
01/Jan/2
2
01/Apr/2
2
01/Jul/2
2
01/Oct/
22
01/Jan/2
3
01/Apr/2
3
01/Jul/2
3
01/Oct/
23
01/Jan/2
4
01/Apr/2
4
01/Jul/2
4
01/Oct/2
4 € -
€ 500,000.00
€ 1,000,000.00
€ 1,500,000.00
€ 2,000,000.00
€ 2,500,000.00
€ 3,000,000.00 Collateral Payments
Recoveries Scheduled Principal Prepayments Interest
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Model ResultsAAA level – 95% (Default Rate) × 68% ( Loss Severity)
Only Tranche A passes at this level
01/Jan/1
6
01/Apr/1
6
01/Jul/1
6
01/Oct/
16
01/Jan/1
7
01/Apr/1
7
01/Jul/1
7
01/Oct/
17
01/Jan/1
8
01/Apr/1
8
01/Jul/1
8
01/Oct/
18
01/Jan/1
9
01/Apr/1
9
01/Jul/1
9
01/Oct/
19
01/Jan/2
0
01/Apr/2
0
01/Jul/2
0
01/Oct/
20
01/Jan/2
1
01/Apr/2
1
01/Jul/2
1
01/Oct/
21
01/Jan/2
2
01/Apr/2
2
01/Jul/2
2
01/Oct/
22
01/Jan/2
3
01/Apr/2
3
01/Jul/2
3
01/Oct/
23
01/Jan/2
4
01/Apr/2
4
01/Jul/2
4
01/Oct/2
4 € -
€ 500,000.00
€ 1,000,000.00
€ 1,500,000.00
€ 2,000,000.00
€ 2,500,000.00
€ 3,000,000.00 Collateral Payments
Recoveries Scheduled Principal Prepayments Interest
A
B
C
D
Notes Redemption
A B C D Unpaid Principal
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Model Results-SummaryRatings Assumptions
Rating LevelDefault
Multiple Loss Multiple Defaults Applied Losses Applied Net Loss Tranches PassedAAA 2.7 2.7 95% 68% 63.79% AAA 2.2 2.2 77% 55% 42.35% AA 2 2 70% 50% 35.00% A,B
BBB 1.5 1.5 53% 38% 19.69% A,BBB 1.2 1.2 42% 30% 12.60% A,B,CB 1 1 35% 25% 8.75% A,B,C,D
CPR:5%
Tranche Rating Level
A AAA
B A
C BB
D B