CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. BuffingtonUniversity of California at San Diego, LaJolla, California, United States

Masayoshihttp://smei.ucsd.edu/ http://ips.ucsd.edu/

D. OdstrcilGeorge Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States

M. TokumaruNagoya University, Japan

(Email: bvjackson@ucsd.edu)

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

B.V. JacksonUniversity of California at San Diego, LaJolla, California, United States

With help from

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Data Sets/Analyses:Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) mainly from STELab, Japan,

ACE, CELIAS, Wind data near Earth, Rosetta SREM and IES data

Heliospheric Tomography:3-D Heliospheric Tomography (a kinematic model fit to data – a time-dependent heliospheric Earth view from a single location)

Speeds and densities from the IPS, vector fields from solar surface magnetic field maps

Current Applications:Real time heliospheric views

IPS-Driven ENLILRosetta data and puzzles; how the solar wind fits in.

Future:Better and more precise continuously verifiable analyses?

Introduction:

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

What Can We Say about the Solar Wind at

Comet 67P/C-G and Rosetta?

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Densities and Velocities on the Ecliptic Plane

Density Velocity

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Densities and Velocities on the Earth-Sun Meridian

Density Velocity

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Velocity at Rosetta

Density at Rosetta

Density at Earth

Velocity at Earth

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

How is this Done?

Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Analysis

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

STELab IPS array near Mt. Fuji

DATA

STELab IPS array systems

IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab)

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

IPS line-of-sight response

DATA

STELab IPS array systems

IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab)

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

New STELab IPS array in Toyokawa (3,432 m2 array now operates well – year-round operation began in 2011)

Current STELab Toyokawa IPS System

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Sample outward motion over time

Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction.

IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360.

STELab IPS

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

IPS C.A.T. AnalysisBastille Day Event 14 July 2000

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31

IPS Density Remote View

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

IPS C.A.T. AnalysisBastille Day Event 14 July 2000

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31

IPS Density Ecliptic Cut

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

IPS C.A.T. AnalysisBastille Day Event 14 July 2000

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31

IPS Velocity Ecliptic Cut

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-GZhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19.

http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Magnetic Field Extrapolation

1. Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field usingphotospheric measurements and a horizontal current model.

2. Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region.

3. Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines.

Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339–353.

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

IPS Forecasts

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

UCSD IPS analysis

Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

http://ips.ucsd.edu/

UCSD Web pages

Real-Time Forecasts Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Forecast

Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

http://ips.ucsd.edu/

One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

Fit to CELIAS data

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc

Forecasthttp://ips.ucsd.edu/

Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

Fit to CELIAS data

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification

Correlations (from UCSD forecast)

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 245-256.

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

Five day behind “aftcast” One day ahead forecast

Velocity Density Velocity Density

Velocity matched to ACE, density matched to CELIASRemote velocity from STELab IPS three-site

Remote density from STELab IPS g-level

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Earth Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, (in press).

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification

Correlations (from UCSD forecast)

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

Five day behind “aftcast” One day ahead forecast

Bradial Btangential Bradial Btangential

RTN coordinates

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-GThe first new data from the on-board Standard Radiation Environment Monitor (SREM) instrument are shown in the attached figure which presents the charged particle count rates observed in two energy channels of SREM: TC3, which is sensitive to protons from roughly 27 MeV energy upward, and TC2 from 49 MeV on. The counts observed give an indication of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) environment encountered by Rosetta at its then location at 4.4 AU distance from the Sun. These measurements were made during a solar maximum period and are a factor ~2 lower than in February 2011 which was during the previous solar minimum. This is as expected by the variation of the GCR fluxes over the 11-year solar cycle.

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-GFrom: Stil@nuim.ie Sent: Tuesday, August 19, 2014 3:32 AM To: bvjackson@ucsd.edu Subject: Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G Dear Bernie,I am excited to have received from the SREM Team the attached beautiful signature of an SEP at Rosetta recorded in February-March of this year in, as an example, SREM channels TC1, TC2 and TC3 corresponding to >20, >40 and >10 MeV protons.

Also SEP Onset at STEREO A & B ~2.5 UT, Earth 25 ~14 UT

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

IES Quicklook plots for Aug-Oct indicating observation of solar

activity

Kathy Mandt, Jim Burch, Ray Goldstein, IES team

Oct. 13, 2014

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Dates of observations of solar wind activity

• August 28 solar wind energy increase at ~19:00• September 1 – increased background due to SEP

starting at 18:00• September 11 solar wind energy increase at 10:00• September 19 solar wind energy increase at 12:00• September 24 – increased background due to ?SEP?

starting at 23:00• October 10 solar wind energy increase at 18:00• October 11 solar wind energy increase at 07:00

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Increase in SW energy at ~19:00

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Increasing background due to SEP?

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Increase in SW energy at ~10:00

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Increase in SW energy at ~12:00

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Increasing background due to SEP?

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Increasing background due to SEP?

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Increase in SW energy at ~20:00

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Increase in SW energy at ~07:00

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

From: Mandt, Kathleen Sent: Monday, October 27, 2014 1:08 PMTo: Bernard V. Jackson ; Ip Wing-Huen ; Fuselier, Stephen Cc: Burch, Jim ; Goldstein, Ray ; Susan McKenna-Lawlor ; Dusan Odstrcil ; Dave Webb ; Mario Bisi ; Munetoshi Tokumaru ; Sunhak Hong ; Americo Gonzalez ; Julio Cesar Mejia Ambriz

Subject: Re: NEWS UPDATE

Hi Bernie et al.,

We have more dates to give you for activity at Rosetta. We saw what appears to be a shock on Oct. 13 at 17:00, another one on Oct. 22 at 16:00 and again on Oct. 25 at 01:00. The data from Oct. 25 seems to have a high background which may indicate more energetic particles in the solar wind.

Kathy

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Large X1.6 flare N14 E06 beginning September 10, 17:21 UT, and a Halo CME.

Density at Rosetta

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Velocity at RosettaDensity at Rosetta

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Density Velocity

Densities and Velocities on the Ecliptic Plane

Real time forecast updated ever 6 hours at:

Rosetta

Earth

ftp://cass185.ucsd.edu/data/IPS_Rosetta_Real_Time

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

a Comprehensive ModelToward

that Includes 3D-MHD

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

• Subject: SOHO/LASCO HALO CME 140418ab (Kevin Schenk)UCMEO 93001 40418 1930/40418 61325 81742 1771/ 170// 333// 4120840418 61233 81318 33118 12036 1112/99999

(Frontsided)SOHO/LASCO observed two (2) HALO CMEs in close succession April 18, 2014.  The events are first seen in C2 at 13:25 UT as a bright loop in progress over the Southwest.  The front expands with extensions to a full HALO CME by 13:36 UT. The event continues into the C3 field beginning 13:30 to 17:42 UT leaving the C3 field of view at 30Rsun in the South. 

April 18 2014 halo CME

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

April 18 2014 halo CME

IPS Forecast

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

IPS-Derived Boundaries for 3D-MHD Models (Yu, H-S., et al., 2012, AIP Conference Proc. 1500, pp. 147-152.)

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

UCSD IPS Data Fit ModelEcliptic Cuts

Kinematic Model Iterative Data Fit

ENLIL 3D-MHD forward modeling from a 21.0 Rs3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary

Density

http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/projects/enlil/ipsbd/density.html

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

UCSD IPS Data Fit ModelEcliptic Cuts

Kinematic Model Iterative Data Fit

ENLIL 3D-MHD forward modeling from a 21.0 Rs3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary

Density

http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/projects/enlil/ipsbd/density.html

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

Better than IPS or Cone Model ENLIL?

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

SMEI Webpages - http://smei.ucsd.edu

SMEI proton density reconstruction for the 27-28 May 2003 halo CME sequence. Reconstructed and ACE L2 in-situ densities are compared over one Carrington rotation.

Full SMEI data set, 6-hour cadence, 3º x 3º lat, long

27-28 May 2003 CME event period

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys Res., 113, A00A15, doi:10.1029/2008JA013224

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-GAll sky view to within 2º (7.5Rs) of the Sun

Cut-away and schematic Characteristics

Jackson,B.V., et al., 2004, Solar Phys., 225, 177-207.

Jackson,B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 257–275.

SMEI heritage

ASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric ImagerASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric Imager

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

ASHI tests with a cooled CCD camera

Night skythroughput tests

Optic before diamond turning

Diamond turned optic

Optic stray light tests

Buffington, A., et al., 2009, Proc. of SPIE, Vol. 7438, 74380O-1-12, doi: 10.1117/12.825362

Jackson, B.V. et al., 2014, Space Weather Workshop, NOAA

ASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric ImagerASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric Imager

CASS/UCSD SALE 2014

An Account of Space Weather at Comet 67P/C-G

The IPS analysis is a ground-based technique that can provide low-resolution velocity and density analysis, and forecasts of time-variable heliospheric structure.

The present Rosetta data seem to be explained pretty-well by the solar wind analyses -- with questions.

Both ENLIL driven with IPS and ENLIL with cone model inputs and WSA inputs work pretty well.

In the future higher-resolution autonomous space-based systems are available, resources permitting.

Summary: