cattle · january 2003 2 nass, usda cattle operations down 2 percent the number of operations with...

Mt An 2 (1-03)

Washington, D.C.

Cattle

Released January 31, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department ofAgriculture. For information on "Cattle" call Steve Anderson at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

January 1 Cattle Inventory Down 1 Percent

All cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2003, totaled 96.1 million head, 1 percentbelow the 96.7 million on January 1, 2002 and 1 percent below the 97.3 million two years ago.

All cows and heifers that have calved, at 42.1 million, were down slightly from the 42.2 million onJanuary 1, 2002 and down 1 percent from the 42.6 million two years ago.

• Beef cows, at 32.95 million, were down 1 percent from both January 1, 2002 and January 1, 2001.

• Milk cows, at 9.15 million, were up slightly from January 1, 2002 but down slightly from twoyears ago.

Other class estimates on January 1, 2003 and the change from January 1, 2002, are as follows:

• All heifers 500 pounds and over, 19.6 million, down slightly.

• Beef replacement heifers, 5.61 million, up 1 percent.

• Milk replacement heifers, 4.10 million, up 1 percent.

• Other heifers, 9.89 million, down 2 percent.

• Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 16.6 million, down 1 percent.

• Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.25 million, up slightly.

• Calves under 500 pounds, 15.6 million, down 1 percent.

• Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter in all feedlots, 12.9 million, down 7 percent.

• The combined total of calves under 500 pounds, and other heifers and steers over 500 poundsoutside of feedlots, 29.1 million, up 1 percent.

Calf Crop Down Slightly

The 2002 calf crop was estimated at 38.2 million head, down slightly from 2001 and down 1 percentfrom 2000. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 27.9 million, down 1 percentfrom 2001 and down 2 percent from 2000.

Cattle Agricultural Statistics BoardJanuary 2003 2 NASS, USDA

Cattle Operations Down 2 Percent

The number of operations with cattle totaled 1.03 million during 2002, down 2 percent from 2001and 4 percent below 2000. Beef cow operations in 2002 were down 1 percent from 2001 and 3 percentbelow 2000. Milk cow operations were 6 percent below last year and 13 percent below two years ago.

The three operation classes: cattle, beef cows, and milk cows, are classified into size groupsindependently. Therefore, it is possible to have more beef cow operations in a particular size groupthan cattle operations. As an example, an operator with 75 cattle and 40 beef cows would be classifiedin the 50-99 size group for cattle and the 1-49 size group for beef cows.

Revisions

All inventory and calf crop estimates for January 1, 2002 and July 1, 2002 were reviewed using calfcrop, official slaughter, import and export data, and the relationship of new survey information tothe prior surveys. Based on the findings of this review, small adjustments of less than one halfpercent were made to the January 1, 2002 inventory estimates by class without changing totalinventory or the 2001 calf crop. Small adjustments of less than 1 percent were made to thepreliminary 2002 calf crop set in July, and the July 1, 2002 inventory.

This report was approved on January 31, 2003.

Acting Secretary ofAgriculture

Keith J. Collins

Agricultural Statistics BoardChairpersonRich Allen


Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop,United States, January 1, 2001-2003 1

Class 2001 2002 2003 2003 as% of 2002

1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent

Cattle and Calves

Cows and Heifers That Have Calved Beef Cows Milk Cows

Heifers 500 Pounds and Over For Beef Cow Replacement Expected to Calve 2

For Milk Cow Replacement Expected to Calve 2

Other Heifers

Steers 500 Pounds and OverBulls 500 Pounds and OverCalves Under 500 Pounds

Cattle on Feed

97,277

42,58033,397

9,183

19,7765,5883,3374,0572,696

10,131

16,4412,274

16,206

14,201

96,704

42,22933,118

9,112

19,6785,5613,4254,0602,798

10,057

16,7902,244

15,763

13,860

96,106

42,09932,947

9,152

19,6015,6083,5354,1042,8229,890

16,5902,253

15,563

12,916

99

10099

100

100101103101101

98

99100

99

93

2000 2001 2002 2002 as% of 2001

Calf Crop 38,631 38,280 38,193 100 1 Totals may not add due to rounding. 2 Replacement heifers expected to calve during the year.

Cattle and Calves: Number Grazing on Small Grain Pasture,3-State Total, January 1, 2001-2003

Class 2001 2002 2003 2003 as% of 2002

Million Head Million Head Million Head Percent

Calves, Other Heifers and Steers Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas 1.78 2.80 3.70 132

Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, 2000-2002 1

Item 2000 2001 2002

Million Head Million Head Million Head

January 1 Beginning InventoryCalf Crop and Imports

Total Supply 2

SlaughterDeaths and Exports

Total Disappearance 2

Residual 2

January 1 Ending Inventory

98.240.8

139.0

37.64.6

42.2

0.4

97.3

97.340.7

138.0

36.64.7

41.2

-0.1

96.7

96.740.6

137.3

37.04.3

41.3

0.1

96.1 1 Final 2001 and preliminary 2002 estimates will be published in the "Meat Animals - Production, Disposition and Income" report

published in April 2003. 2 Totals may not add due to rounding.


Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States,January 1, 2002-2003

StateAll Cattle and Calves All Cows That Have Calved

2002 2003 2003 as% of 2002 2002 2003 2003 as

% of 2002

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent

ALAKAZARCACOCTDEFLGAHIIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMDMAMIMNMSMOMTNENVNHNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVAWAWVWIWY

US

1,37011.5

8401,8205,2003,050

6126

1,7801,240

1521,9901,430

8803,5506,6002,300

85097

24551

9902,5501,1004,3502,4506,400

5004144

1,5801,390

9501,9701,2505,2001,4001,640

5.5430

3,9502,200

13,600920285

1,6501,130

4153,3001,470

96,704.0

1,44011.5

8201,8505,2502,650

5625

1,7501,290

1502,0001,360

8603,6006,3502,430

86093

24049

9902,4701,0704,5002,4006,200

5104046

1,5901,450

9201,8801,2205,4001,3601,630

5.5435

3,7002,270

14,000880280

1,6301,100

4053,3001,290

96,106.0

105100

98102101

87929698

10499

1019598

10196

106101

969896

1009797

1039897

10298

105101104

979598

1049799

100101

94103103

9698999798

10088

99

7705.5

325960

2,380890

3213

1,110680

85870560380

1,1901,6001,200

52048

12227

370910610

2,2001,4702,000

2652221

790750500

1,050540

2,020710740

2.8230

1,8901,1505,750

450166810500215

1,510820

42,229.3

7805.6

315980

2,420800

2913

1,100710

85880540375

1,2001,6301,240

52046

12125

390880590

2,2501,4202,000

2702122

780760480

1,010520

2,130710740

3.0230

1,7801,1905,800

430163800495210

1,500710

42,098.6

101102

97102102

9091

10099

104100101

9699

101102103100

969993

1059797

10297

100102

95105

99101

969696

105100100107100

94103101

96989999989987

100

--continued


Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States,January 1, 2002-2003 (continued)

StateBeef Cows That Have Calved Milk Cows That Have Calved

2002 2003 2003 as% of 2002 2002 2003 2003 as

% of 2002



US

7504.3

185927760797

84

958594

78493445226985

1,5051,075

4661041

673

410576

2,0601,4511,932

24048

50075

4341,008

2801,933

605152

1.4210

1,7921,0605,440

35712

690253199230815

33,117.7

7614.3

165949740702

64

953625

79490426230992

1,5251,120

4711041

589

400557

2,1161,4021,934

24549

47080

417973260

2,042593150

1.6210

1,6861,1065,489

33910

682248195235706

32,946.9

101100

89102

978875

10099

105101

9996

102101101104101100100

83122

9897

10397

100102100113

94107

969793

1069899

114100

94104101

9583999898

10287

99

201.2

14033

1,6209324

9152

867

377115154205

95125

54388121

297500

34140

1968251813

290675

6642

26087

105588

1.4209890

31093

154120247

161,280

5

9,111.6

191.3

15031

1,6809823

9147

856

390114145208105120

49368020

301480

33134

1866251713

310680

6337

26088

117590

1.4209484

31191

153118247

151,265

4

9,151.7

95108107

94104105

96100

979986

1039994

101111

9691959995

1019697969597

10094

100107101

9588

100101111100100100

9693

100989998

100949980

100

--continued



State

Heifers 500 Pounds and Over

Beef Cow Replacement Milk Cow Replacement Other

2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head


US

1020.7

36165135120

2.00.9

1408710856542

140230170

814.0

142.0

30100

98280370285

441.03

1002073

15570

330155

400.4

38300175750

754

120484060

165

5,561.0

1180.7

34180130102

1.00.6

1309012906041

130250175

864.5

111.0

35100

95305380280

461.53

902573

15570

380115

450.3

38290200760

754

120553565

120

5,607.6

70.5

3315

7704011.5

3.54029

3175

5066

12040401120.033

9.0135295

1560132510

8.06

60300

3015

1102055

2850.78

3040

100445860

1055

6501

4,060.2

70.6

3510

7903811.0

3.34029

3190

5055

10050451019.03210.0

135295

1555112011

8.06

70325

2813

1103060

2800.68

3040

110455948

1057

6501

4,103.5

410.4

1765

170750

1.51.6

2530

7200190

62590

1,650100

171.091.0

45180

27290177

1,42038

0.52

1104020

26070

480115

450.1

13540

751,650

714

70127

2590

144

10,057.1

400.3

2075

170650

1.51.1

2536

6195160

56600

1,620130

171.591.0

42180

25320179

1,39035

0.52

1104019

23070

500110

500.1

15470

751,710

704

67115

2375

149

9,890.0

--continued



StateSteers

500 Pounds and OverBulls

500 Pounds and OverCalves

Under 500 Pounds

2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head


US

600.8

250145640

1,0102.02.0

2540

8360285120960

2,280215

244.0

182.0

195480

55480245

2,12050

1.53

2003743

315160

1,160160175

0.513

750118

2,540126

3.0175189

45330170

16,789.8

750.8

250130615870

2.51.9

2550

7360280128

1,0401,970

22024

3.523

2.5195470

56485240

2,00052

1.54

2303748

300180

1,230150170

0.515

730140

2,750125

3.0190177

43320170

16,590.2

501.2

22506545

1.00.4

6039

440252070857532

1.541.0

173540

120100100

150.51

5018345730

1304025

0.2179572

37024

3.04024153050

2,243.8

551.1

21556540

1.00.4

6040

535252070908033

1.541.0

183539

125100100

160.51

5018325630

1354025

0.2179075

37022

3.04023143045

2,252.7

3402.4

157420

1,040195

11.04.6

380335

35260255190480715500165

18.545

9.0198550255920

75450

787.58

270225250118270

1,060165330

0.8111345570

2,440130

47.0375137

70630120

15,762.8

3652.4

145420

1,060150

10.04.7

370335

32250245185460740540170

17.040

8.5175510250960

70410

807.08

260245240116240995175320

0.8112310550

2,500113

44.0365130

73660

95

15,563.4


Calf Crop: Number by State and United States, 2001-2002

State 2001 2002 2002 as% 2001

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent


US

6803.8

270820

1,990840

2710

940580

66860510345

1,1201,4801,080

40544

10322

335890540

2,0601,5501,820

2251918

610620450

1,000480

1,890660660

2.6185

1,8501,0505,050

400145720460195

1,360840

38,280.4

6903.7

265850

2,040820

2410

930600

63860490340

1,1101,5101,110

41542

10219

340880500

2,0901,4901,820

2201918

600640445

1,000470

1,930660660

2.6185

1,8401,0605,000

390140730450190

1,350780

38,193.3

1019798

104103

9889

10099

10395

100969999

102103102

959986

1019993

10196

10098

100100

98103

99100

98102100100100100

99101

999897

10198979993

100


Cattle and Calves: Total Number on Feed by Stateand United States, January 1, 2002-2003 1

State 2002 2003 2003 as% of 2002

1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent

ALAZARCACOGAIDILINIAKSKYMDMIMNMOMTNENVNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWVWIWY

Oth Sts 2

US

4.0305.0

15.0480.0

1,210.03.0

335.0200.0115.0955.0

2,530.015.013.0

190.0270.0

70.070.0

2,370.020.0

2.0108.0

25.05.0

62.0180.0365.0

50.075.0

4.0355.0

10.02,890.0

25.027.0

250.08.0

160.080.0

9.3

13,860.3

5.0289.0

15.0490.0

1,040.03.0

300.0190.0115.0980.0

2,240.010.013.0

180.0270.0

70.070.0

2,260.012.0

2.0119.0

20.04.0

70.0180.0335.0

55.075.0

4.0365.0

5.02,640.0

30.029.0

190.07.0

150.075.0

8.8

12,915.8

12595

100102

86100

9095

100103

8967

10095

100100100

9560

100110

8080

113100

92110100100103

5091

120107

76889494

95

93 1 Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to

produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle and calves on feed are included in the cattle inventory estimates byclasses.

2 Other States include AK, CT, DE, FL, HI, LA, ME, MA, MS, NH, RI, and VT.


Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf CropUnited States, July 1, 2000-2002

Class 2000 2001 2002 1 2002 as% of 2001

1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Percent

Cattle and Calves

Cows and Heifers That Have Calved Beef Cows Milk Cows

Heifers 500 Pounds and Over For Beef Cow Replacement For Milk Cow Replacement Other Heifers

Steers 500 Pounds and OverBulls 500 Pounds and OverCalves Under 500 Pounds

Calf Crop

Cattle on Feed

106,300

43,20033,950

9,250

16,5004,7003,7008,100

14,3002,100

30,200

38,631

12,300

105,800

43,00033,900

9,100

16,4004,6003,6008,200

14,6002,100

29,700

38,280

13,000

105,100

42,90033,750

9,150

16,2004,6003,7007,900

14,5002,100

29,400

38,193

12,400

99

100100101

99100103

96

99100

99

100

95 1 Revised.

Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six Month Period,United States, 2000-2002

Period2000 2001 2002 1

Number % ofTotal Number % of

Total Number % ofTotal

1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent

Jan 1 - Jun 30Jul 1 - Dec 31

Total

28,400.010,230.6

38,630.6

73.526.5

100.0

28,100.010,180.4

38,280.4

73.426.6

100.0

27,900.010,293.3

38,193.3

73.027.0

100.0 1 Revised.

Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States,January 1 - June 30, 2000-2002

Item 2000 2001 2002

Million Head Million Head Million Head

January 1 InventoryCalf Crop and Imports

Total Supply 1

SlaughterDeaths and Exports

Total Disappearance 1

Residual 1

July 1 Inventory

98.229.5

127.7

18.92.6

21.5

0.1

106.3

97.329.4

126.7

18.12.7

20.8

-0.1

105.8

96.729.1

125.8

18.12.5

20.7

0.0

105.1 1 Totals may not add due to rounding.


Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, Selected States,and United States, July 1, 2001-2002

StateAll Cattle and Calves All Cows That Have Calved

2001 2002 1 2002 as% of 2001 2001 2002 1 2002 as

% of 2001


CACOIAKSMOMTNEOKSDTXWI

Oth Sts

US

5,2003,3003,8506,9004,6503,5007,2505,4005,100

15,0003,600

42,050

105,800

5,2003,0504,0006,5504,6503,3507,0505,6005,000

15,0003,550

42,100

105,100

10092

10495

1009697

10498

10099

100

99

2,360930

1,2201,7302,2001,5702,1002,0502,0506,0001,540

19,250

43,000

2,400880

1,2401,6502,1801,4802,0302,1002,0206,1001,510

19,310

42,900

10295

10295999497

10299

10298

100

100

Beef Cows That Have Calved Milk Cows That Have Calved


CACOIAKSMOMTNEOKSDTXWI

Oth Sts

US

770838

1,0101,6402,0531,5512,0291,9611,9515,675

250

14,172

33,900

750776

1,0301,5472,0431,4621,9632,0121,9235,795

245

14,204

33,750

9793

10294

1009497

10399

10298

100

100

1,59092

21090

14719718999

3251,290

5,078

9,100

1,650104210103137

18678897

3051,265

5,106

9,150

104113100114

93959499989498

101

101 1 Revised.


Cattle and Calves: Number of Operations and Percent of Inventoryby Size Group, United States, 2001-2002 1

HeadOperations Percent of Inventory

2001 2002 2001 2002

Number Number Percent Percent

Cattle and Calves 2

1-49 50-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000-9,999 10,000-19,999 20,000+ Total

Beef Cows 3

1-49 50-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000+ Total

Milk Cows 4

1-29 30-49 50-99 100-199 200-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000+ Total

653,750179,070188,580

18,7206,3202,550

510220190

1,049,910

637,90099,32070,890

4,1801,050

26050

813,650

28,12519,87029,19512,335

5,1951,700

770320

97,510

642,850174,750186,930

18,3656,2902,600

480225180

1,032,670

630,30098,65070,740

4,0801,020

24545

805,080

25,68018,52527,86511,860

5,1551,750

775380

91,990

11.512.436.212.4

7.46.83.32.87.2

28.919.237.0

7.83.82.01.3

2.68.1

20.917.416.412.011.511.1

11.712.236.212.4

7.57.03.22.87.0

29.019.237.5

7.63.71.81.2

2.37.5

20.116.716.112.511.513.3

1 Percents reflect average distributions of various probability surveys conducted during the year but are based primarily onbeginning-of-year and mid-year surveys.

2 An operation is any place having one or more head of cattle on hand at any time during the year. 3 An operation is any place having one or more head of beef cows on hand at any time during the year. 4 An operation is any place having one or more head of milk cows, excluding cows used to nurse calves, on hand at any time during

the year.


Cattle and Calves: Number of Operations by Stateand United States, 2001-2002 1

StateOperations With Cattle and Calves

2001 2002

Number Number


US

26,000130

3,00030,00021,00014,600

1,200480

19,50022,000

80011,50024,00020,00035,00035,00047,00015,000

1,8004,5001,200

15,50029,00023,00067,00013,30026,000

1,700900

1,7008,500

16,00025,00013,30027,00059,00016,20028,000

20011,00019,50052,000

151,0008,0003,000

26,00015,00013,00040,000

6,400

1,049,910

26,000120

2,90030,00020,00014,300

1,200450

19,00021,000

80011,50023,00019,00034,00034,00046,00015,000

1,8004,4001,200

15,00029,00023,00068,00012,50025,000

1,700900

1,6008,500

15,00024,00013,00026,00060,00016,20028,000

20011,00019,00051,000

151,0007,8002,900

25,00014,50013,00038,000

6,200

1,032,670 1 An operation is any place having one or more head of cattle on hand at any time during the year.


Cattle and Calves: Number of Operations by Size Group,Selected States, and United States, 2001-2002 1

State

Operations Having

1-49 Head 50-99 Head 100-499 Head

2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002

Number Number Number Number Number Number

ALAZARCACOFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMOMTNENMNYNCNDOHOKORPASDTNTXUTVTVAWAWIWY

Oth Sts

US

18,0001,750

19,50013,700

7,80014,50015,000

6,60015,40015,10015,80016,40033,00010,800

3,10010,80014,70016,00041,000

4,8009,1005,0008,900

19,9003,800

20,50036,00012,40016,300

5,00039,500

103,0004,6001,400

17,00011,70017,000

1,900

27,000

653,750

18,0001,650

19,50012,900

7,70014,20014,200

6,60014,70014,40015,60016,00032,00011,000

3,00010,40014,70015,90042,000

4,6008,7005,0008,000

18,8003,600

19,50037,00012,40016,500

4,70038,000

103,0004,4001,300

16,00011,40016,100

2,400

27,000

642,850

4,400370

5,8001,9002,1602,3003,8901,6404,5002,9007,8007,1008,2002,000

6702,1006,8003,800

14,6002,3505,4001,1002,9003,1003,1503,200

10,7001,4007,1003,4007,800

22,0001,200

6504,7001,290

10,2001,100

3,400

179,070

4,400380

5,8001,8002,0002,2003,8001,6004,4002,7007,3006,9008,2001,800

6302,0406,8003,800

14,5002,0005,1001,1002,8003,2002,9503,200

10,6001,4006,9003,4007,800

22,0001,300

7004,7001,2009,400

650

3,300

174,750

3,300610

4,4003,1003,5002,0502,8002,5003,8801,890

10,3009,7005,5502,000

7002,3507,0003,000

10,8004,8009,0001,7003,8801,9005,7003,120

10,8001,7404,4209,2004,500

22,3001,800

8804,0001,600

12,1002,500

3,210

188,580

3,300610

4,4003,0003,5001,9502,7002,5003,6801,780

10,1009,4005,5502,000

7302,3007,0003,120

10,8004,7008,7001,7503,8601,9005,8003,100

10,9001,7404,4309,0005,000

22,3001,700

8304,0001,500

11,8002,300

3,200

186,930

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued


Cattle and Calves: Number of Operations by Size Group, SelectedStates, and United States, 2001-2002 1 (continued)

State

Operations Having

500-999 Head 1,000+ Head

2001 2002 2001 2002

Number Number Number Number


Oth Sts

US

250120240

1,100680350250440180

80800

1,150200160

20180380150460

1,0001,400

350230

80550150950420150

1,350170

2,400270

50250270570600

320

18,720

240120230

1,100650350250460170

90700

1,050200160

30180380130580850

1,500320240

80550160950410140

1,400165

2,300270

50250260550550

300

18,365

50150

601,200

460300

60320

4030

300650

50401070

12050

140350

1,100350

9020

10030

550240

30550

301,300

1302050

140130300

180

9,790

60140

701,200

450300

50340

5030

300650

50401080

12050

120350

1,000330100

20100

40550250

30500

351,400

1302050

140150300

170

9,775 1 An operation is any place having one or more head of cattle on hand at any time during the year.


Cattle and Calves: Percent of Inventory by Size Group,Selected States, and United States, 2001-2002 1

State

Inventory on Operations Having

1-49 Head 50-99 Head 100-499 Head 500-999 Head 1,000+ Head

2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002

Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent


Oth Sts

US

25.02.0

22.03.23.8

11.020.0

5.320.030.0

7.55.3

28.023.016.016.013.022.019.0

2.52.45.2

11.030.0

4.626.014.012.017.0

2.733.012.0

8.07.5

20.09.09.01.8

21.0

11.5

26.02.5

21.02.94.0

11.520.0

5.019.529.0

8.05.2

28.024.015.016.013.022.019.0

2.22.55.0

10.029.0

4.325.014.012.017.0

2.532.013.0

7.56.5

20.010.0

9.03.1

21.0

11.7

21.02.3

22.02.84.78.8

21.05.7

21.022.014.5

7.223.016.017.015.019.022.023.0

6.55.64.8

16.022.310.017.514.0

7.029.0

5.825.011.0

9.016.019.0

7.019.0

4.2

13.0

12.4

21.02.5

22.02.64.58.5

21.05.5

21.021.014.0

7.023.014.016.014.019.022.022.0

5.85.54.5

15.023.2

9.717.313.0

6.528.0

6.023.011.0

9.517.519.0

7.019.0

2.9

13.0

12.2

39.014.042.015.023.024.040.026.046.036.051.029.540.043.055.045.050.040.046.040.028.022.051.038.061.045.037.025.045.050.035.030.041.054.046.028.056.032.0

32.0

36.2

38.014.042.014.524.023.040.025.046.036.052.029.040.043.055.043.050.041.046.042.029.021.050.038.061.045.038.026.046.050.038.029.041.052.046.027.055.032.0

33.0

36.2

10.58.77.5

15.014.513.211.515.0

8.25.8

13.011.0

5.211.0

5.712.010.0

8.07.0

26.014.015.011.0

5.917.0

7.512.020.0

5.821.0

5.111.019.011.510.016.010.526.0

12.0

12.4

9.59.07.5

15.014.513.012.015.5

7.76.8

12.010.8

5.511.5

8.512.010.0

7.08.5

23.016.013.512.0

6.017.0

7.912.019.5

5.623.0

4.811.019.012.010.015.011.024.0

11.0

12.4

4.573.0

6.564.054.043.0

7.548.0

4.86.2

14.047.0

3.87.06.3

12.08.08.05.0

25.050.053.011.0

3.87.44.0

23.036.0

3.220.5

1.936.023.011.0

5.040.0

5.536.0

22.0

27.5

5.572.0

7.565.053.044.0

7.049.0

5.87.2

14.048.0

3.57.55.5

15.08.08.04.5

27.047.056.013.0

3.88.04.8

23.036.0

3.418.5

2.236.023.012.0

5.041.0

6.038.0

22.0

27.5 1 Percents reflect average distributions of various probability surveys conducted during the year but are based primarily on

beginning-of-year and mid-year surveys.


Beef Cows: Number of Operations by State and United States, 2001-2002 1

StateOperations With Beef Cows 2

2001 2002

Number Number


US

25,00090

2,10027,00013,50011,000

800240

16,50021,000

7007,600

16,50013,00026,00029,00039,00013,200

1,0002,800

7007,000

15,50021,00057,00011,90022,000

1,400530950

6,9006,200

22,00012,00017,00049,00012,70011,100

14010,00017,00045,000

133,0005,7001,000

22,00010,40011,00012,000

5,500

813,650

25,00080

2,00027,00012,50010,500

800230

16,50020,000

7007,600

15,80012,00026,00028,00039,00013,000

1,0002,700

7007,000

15,50021,00058,00011,40022,000

1,400530900

6,8006,000

21,00011,80016,00050,00012,60011,200

14010,00016,80044,000

133,0005,6001,000

22,00010,10011,00012,000

5,200

805,080 1 An operation is any place having one or more head of beef cows on hand at any time during the year. 2 Included in operations with cattle.


Beef Cows: Number of Operations by Size Group, SelectedStates, and United States, 2001-2002 1 2

State

Operations Having

1-49 Head 50-99 Head 100-499 Head 500+ Head

2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002

Number Number Number Number Number Number Number Number

ALAZARCACOFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMNMSMOMTNENMNCNDOHOKORPASDTNTXUTVAWAWY

Oth Sts

US

20,0001,400

22,00010,500

6,70013,20017,500

5,20014,20012,10018,90019,20033,50010,90013,30017,10045,000

5,00012,200

4,50019,800

5,30016,10037,50010,20010,600

7,00040,000

104,0003,700

18,1009,0002,200

52,000

637,900

20,0001,300

22,0009,7006,300

13,30016,700

5,20013,50011,20019,00018,60033,40010,60013,30017,10046,000

4,80012,200

4,50018,800

5,00015,00038,50010,10010,600

6,80039,000

104,0003,600

18,0008,9002,300

51,000

630,300

3,300210

3,300990

1,7401,6002,200

9501,690

7004,8005,4003,7001,2001,6002,8008,3002,3004,300

9701,6303,220

7007,3001,200

3803,6903,600

17,000950

2,700750

1,150

3,000

99,320

3,250220

3,200810

1,7001,6002,000

9301,650

6004,6005,2004,0001,3001,5002,8008,2002,1304,200

9501,6003,220

8007,4001,100

4703,6703,600

17,000950

2,800600900

3,700

98,650

1,650410

1,6301,7002,3001,4001,2701,300

600200

2,2504,2301,7701,060

5851,0603,6004,1004,9301,200

5603,400

1904,0001,100

1205,9001,385

11,100960

1,160590

1,800

1,380

70,890

1,700400

1,7301,7002,2501,3201,2701,300

640200

2,3504,0201,5701,060

6801,0603,7004,0005,0701,150

5903,500

1903,9001,180

1305,9001,380

11,100960

1,170550

1,700

1,320

70,740

508070

310260300

30150

10

50170

30401540

100500570230

108010

200200

41015

900904060

350

170

5,540

508070

290250280

30170

10

50180

30402040

100470530200

108010

200220

43020

900903050

300

160

5,390 1 An operation is any place having one or more head of beef cows on hand at any time during the year. 2 Included in operations with cattle. Missing data combined with other size groups.


Beef Cows: Percent of Inventory by Size Group, SelectedStates, and United States, 2001-2002 1 2

State


1-49 Head 50-99 Head 100-499 Head 500+ Head

2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002

Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent

ALAZARCACOFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMNMSMOMTNENMNCNDOHOKORPASDTNTXUTVAWAWY

Oth Sts

US

39.07.5

42.012.512.016.041.014.055.071.035.024.552.036.049.040.043.0

6.012.010.055.012.572.033.018.071.0

9.055.029.014.043.026.0

5.5

46.0

28.9

41.08.5

42.012.213.017.042.014.052.071.034.024.552.035.049.038.042.0

6.012.011.055.011.069.034.018.067.0

8.556.029.013.043.030.0

6.0

46.0

29.0

25.56.5

23.58.5

14.011.023.013.025.018.031.023.022.217.026.026.026.010.015.012.023.021.015.024.011.016.014.023.020.016.026.018.0

9.5

16.0

19.2

24.57.5

22.06.8

15.011.022.012.025.017.030.023.024.118.024.026.026.010.015.012.023.021.018.024.010.019.013.522.620.016.026.015.0

8.0

20.0

19.2

31.037.029.045.050.027.033.048.018.511.031.044.024.040.022.229.027.056.047.042.020.061.010.535.039.013.061.020.935.048.027.039.046.0

21.0

37.0

30.037.030.045.049.027.033.047.021.012.033.044.022.040.024.030.028.057.049.043.020.062.010.534.039.014.061.020.037.049.028.038.048.0

19.0

37.5

4.549.0

5.534.024.046.0

3.025.0

1.5

3.08.51.87.02.85.04.0

28.026.036.0

2.05.52.58.0

32.0

16.01.1

16.022.0

4.017.039.0

17.0

14.9

4.547.0

6.036.023.045.0

3.027.0

2.0

3.08.51.97.03.06.04.0

27.024.034.0

2.06.02.58.0

33.0

17.01.4

14.022.0

3.017.038.0

15.0


beginning-of-year and mid-year surveys. 2 Missing data combined with other size groups.


Milk Cows: Number of Operations by State and United States, 2001-2002 1

StateOperations With Milk Cows 2

2001 2002

Number Number


US

25030

250900

2,500800310120510720

501,0001,9002,9003,5001,2002,900

610600950350

3,3007,800

4803,700

6501,100

150260250500

7,200900850

5,2001,700

82010,300

30240

1,3001,5002,100

7601,6001,5001,000

60019,100

270

97,510

20030

250800

2,500780290120500660

50950

1,8002,6003,2001,2002,500

590550900330

3,2007,200

4503,500

6001,000

150250250500

7,100870760

5,1001,600

8009,900

30220

1,2001,4001,900

7001,5001,500

950500

17,800260

91,990 1 An operation is any place having one or more head of milk cows, excluding cows used to nurse calves, on hand at any time during

the year. 2 Included in operations with cattle.


Milk Cows: Number of Operations by Size Group, SelectedStates, and United States, 2001-2002 1 2

State

Operations Having

1-29 Head 30-49 Head 50-99 Head

2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002


AZCACOFLGAIDILINIAKYMDMIMNMONMNYNCOHOKORPASDTNTXUTVTVAWAWI

Oth Sts

US

120300580290320230480

1,500820

1,300160

1,0501,1001,600

3351,300

4602,4001,050

4001,800

410630950270130490300

3,150

4,200

28,125

115280575290290210480

1,200715

1,000160

1,050900

1,600325

1,200460

2,3001,000

3701,600

370550900240110500290

2,600

4,000

25,680

7010

52080

360470890520150550

2,700700

1,20040

850120

303,700

280140100

35270140

405,300

1,100

19,870

7010

51080

350490800470150500

2,400600

1,25030

900120

303,500

250130

9040

270150

304,800

1,000

18,525

1080302090

210700570

1,200760370800

3,000850

52,800

1501,250

26080

3,600370390250140780420110

7,800

2,100

29,195

1090302090

190620580

1,050700310750

2,900800

52,800

1401,200

23085

3,600345390200110710400110

7,500

1,900

27,865



Milk Cows: Number of Operations by Size Group, SelectedStates, and United States, 2001-2002 1 2 (continued)

State

Operations Having

100-199 Head 200-499 Head 500+ Head

2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002



Oth Sts

US

10250

5535

170150280280480270210620700500

51,300

160560210170900180250320170270340190

2,000

1,300

12,335

10260

4030

160140270250510270210590700450

51,200

155540190170900170250290160260350180

2,000

1,150

11,860

20700

756090

1507055954550

215250

4515

47075

12050

100270

4580

320110120100220680

500

5,195

20700

755580

1506555

1005560

240250

4015

51070

14050

100260

4570

260110120

90200700

470

5,155

901,100

50100

30180

102515

5106550

5140130

15201040301510

160353010

140170

100

2,790

951,100

50100

30180

152525

510705010

150140

15201045402010

160403010

140200

110

2,905 1 An operation is any place having one or more head of milk cows, excluding cows used to nurse calves, on hand at any time during

the year. 2 Included in operations with cattle. Missing data combined with other size groups.


Milk Cows: Percent of Inventory by Size Group, SelectedStates, and United States, 2001-2002 1

State


1-29 Head 30-49 Head 50-99 Head

2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002

Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent


Oth Sts

US

0.30.11.10.41.00.43.09.05.08.01.55.04.05.00.22.01.99.04.00.74.04.02.51.01.01.03.00.33.7

3.0

2.6

0.30.11.30.41.00.43.07.03.56.02.04.03.64.50.22.02.29.03.00.93.04.02.51.01.01.03.50.23.5

3.0

2.3

0.20.40.11.00.9

10.012.013.015.0

6.57.0

20.017.0

8.02.1

13.05.01.3

24.011.0

5.01.01.07.04.00.7

14.0

6.0

8.1

0.20.40.10.50.8

10.011.012.014.5

7.06.0

19.016.0

7.51.8

13.05.01.1

23.010.0

5.01.01.57.04.50.5

13.0

6.0

7.5

0.40.32.01.08.04.1

38.025.036.039.029.018.038.031.0

0.129.017.031.019.0

7.037.026.029.0

5.011.031.026.0

3.038.0

24.0

20.9

0.40.42.01.07.53.7

34.025.032.039.024.017.039.031.0

0.128.016.031.018.0

6.038.025.029.0

4.58.5

29.025.0

3.338.0

23.0

20.1



Milk Cows: Percent of Inventory by Size Group, SelectedStates, and United States, 2001-2002 1 (continued)

State


100-199 Head 200-499 Head 500+ Head

2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002

Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent


Oth Sts

US

0.82.47.53.0

28.05.6

28.024.028.027.034.027.016.036.0

0.327.032.028.029.021.020.025.035.014.024.023.038.011.019.0

27.0

17.4

0.82.35.03.0

26.05.1

30.022.030.027.035.026.016.035.0

0.324.533.026.027.019.020.024.036.013.523.022.040.011.019.0

26.0

16.7

4.515.026.712.527.013.016.010.012.0

8.516.021.014.0

7.51.4

18.030.013.015.032.011.014.022.031.033.022.023.028.015.0

22.0

16.4

3.514.025.812.526.012.015.510.013.011.019.023.014.0

7.01.4

20.029.015.017.028.011.014.021.027.031.023.021.026.014.5

22.0

16.1

94.082.062.383.035.076.0

5.020.0

6.02.5

13.022.0

8.03.5

98.016.017.0

6.028.038.0

4.020.0

6.548.030.016.0

6.057.010.3

18.0

34.6

95.083.065.583.039.078.0

7.525.0

9.52.5

13.024.0

8.46.5

98.018.018.0

6.030.045.0

5.023.0

6.553.035.018.0

6.059.012.0

20.0


beginning-of-year and mid-year surveys. Missing data combined with other size groups.


Reliability of January 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates

Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in thesurvey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about50,000 operators during the first half of January by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews and83 percent of the reports were usable. Regardless of when operators responded, they were asked to reportinventories as of January 1.

Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board afterreviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data werereviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports, andsubtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to theAgricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to itemrelationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made. Thereviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimateswill also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will bemade after that date.

Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to samplingvariability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, andmistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measureddirectly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through acareful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" isshown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure basedon past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "RootMean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 20 years is .6 percent. This means thatchances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 96.1 millionhead by more than .6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent.


The table below also shows a 20 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates forselected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventoryestimate and the latest estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 443,000 head, ranging from 0 to1,419,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been equal to the final estimate onetime, below the final estimate 6 times, and above the final estimate 13 times. This does not imply that theJanuary 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory.

Reliability of January 1 Cattle Estimates 1 2

Item

RootMean

SquareError

90 PercentConfidence

Level

Difference BetweenFirst and Latest

Estimates

Number ofYears

Percent Head Average Smallest LargestFirst

AboveLatest

FirstBelowLatest

Percent Percent 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Head Number Number

All Cattle

All Cows

Calf Crop

0.6

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.2

1.2

952

523

458

443

222

192

0

6

0

1,419

911

630

13

13

11

6

7

8 1 Based on data from January 1983 through January 2002. 2 Data in the above table do not reflect the 1-3 percent changes made during the 1989-93 historic revision period. The root mean

square error’s would be about 1 percentage point higher if these were included.


IndexPage

Beef Cow Inventory Percents by Size Group, Selected States, and United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Beef Cow Operations, by State, and United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Beef Cow Operations by Size Group, Selected States, and United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Calf Crop by Six Month Period, United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Calf Crop, by State, and United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Cattle and Calves, Number by Class, by State, and United States, January 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Cattle and Calves, Number by Class, Selected States, and United States, July 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Cattle and Calves, Number Grazing on Small Grain Pasture, 3-State Total, January 1, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Cattle Inventory Percents by Size Group, Selected States, and United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Cattle on Feed, by State, and United States, January 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Cattle Operations, by State, and United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Cattle Operations by Size Group, Selected States, and United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Milk Cow Inventory Percents by Size Group, Selected States, and United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Milk Cow Operations, by State, and United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Milk Cow Operations by Size Group, Selected States, and United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Reliability Statement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

U.S. Balance Sheet, January 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

U.S. Balance Sheet, January 1-June 30 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

U.S. Cattle, Beef Cow, and Milk Cow Operations and Inventory Percents by Size Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

U.S. Class Inventories, January 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

U.S. Class Inventories, July 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

The next "Cattle" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on July 18, 2003.

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Competing in the 21st Century

February 20-21, 2003 Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia

2003 Commodity Prospects Emerging Export Competitors Farming under New Programs Coping with Regulations Shifting consumer Preferences Ensuring Food Safety Impact of El Nino

Sharpen your strategic focus at USDA’s 79th annualAgricultural Outlook Forum. Note experts, industryleaders and producers will discuss many facets ofcompeting in domestic and world markets.

The program will examine growing competition fromCentral and Eastern Europe, Brazil and Asia, as wellas progress in WTO negotiations.

Focus sessions will highlight many challengesproducers face in the competitive arena, ranging fromthe growing complexity and cost of regulation, todealing with food safety and changing eating habits.

As always, leading analysts will be on hand to debateplanting, trade and price prospects for farmcommodities for the year ahead. Attendees willreceive new 10-year commodity projections fromUSDA.

Networking opportunities abound at the Forum,which attracted 1,400 attendees last February.Register now for the best value. See full details atwww.usda.gov/oce.

www.usda.gov/oce [email protected] (877) 891-2208 toll free

cattle · january 2003 2 nass, usda cattle operations down 2 percent the number of operations with...

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