The e-commerce effect on logistics real estate

CBRE NORDICS

LOGISTICS

How will the global pandemic and the e-commerce trend reshape the market for logistics real estate in the Nordics? In this paper, we have a look at how goods move across the region, the market for Nordic logistics’ real estate and draw conclusions on the likely development going forward.

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Table of Contents

Chart 1: Distribution of goods in tonnes-kilometres (mn) per transport type for inland transport

Chart 2: Choosing mode of transport – time vs. cost

Chart 3: The liner shipping connectivity index (LSCI)

Chart 4: The largest ports in the Nordics by ‘000 tonnes

Chart 5: E-commerce share of total sales in the Nordics, 2019 and 2020F

Chart 6: E-commerce turnover per country in EUR mn and number of vans nationwide

Chart 7: Development in Denmark, new registration of cars, vans and lorries

Chart 8: Package volumes in Finland, mn

Chart 9: E-commerce’ share of total sales (%)

Chart 10: Estimated completions in pipeline in Sweden 2020–2023

Chart 11: Estimated completions in pipeline in Denmark 2020–2025

Chart 12: Share of turnover of groceries that is online

Chart 13: Construction-started logistics (m2) in Norway by type of property

Chart 14: Construction-starts (m2)

Table 1: Municipalities in Sweden with the largest increase and decrease in industrial land

2010-2016

Table 2: The most popular municipalities in Norway for construction starts

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LOGISTICS

1) "Leder e-handel till ökade transporter? 2019:13" Trafikanalys|2) ”Väg eller järnväg vid transporter av gods?” Transportstyrelsen 2017

3) Eurostat

3

LOGISTICS

65% 72%85% 84%

35% 28%15% 16%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sweden Finland Denmark Norway

Road Rail

Price

Time

Air cargo

Truck

RailWaterways Sea

4) United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Review of| Maritime Transport

5) Trafikanalys, “Hamnar i fokus” 20196) “Gigantism in container shipping, ports and global logistics”

4

LOGISTICS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Denmark Finland Norway Sweden

7) Gross weight of goods transported to/from main ports, thousand| tonnes, Eurostat

5

LOGISTICS

8) Euromonitor|9) SCB, SSB, Tilastokeskus

10) "Leder e-handel till ökade transporter? 2019:13" Trafikanalys

6

0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% 18.0% 21.0%

Norway

Finland

Denmark

Sweden

2020F 2019

LOGISTICS

11) CBRE Research|12) Euromonitor, SCB, SSB, Denmark Vejdirektoratet, Tilastokeskus

7

LOGISTICS

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

Norway E-Commerce Sweden E-commerce

Denmark E-Commerce Finland E-Commerce

Norway Number of vans nationwide (right) Sweden Number of vans nationwide (right)

Denmark Number of vans nationwide (right) Finland Number of vans nationwide (right)

13) “Traficom postimarkkinaselvitys 2018”|14) Nordea Corona Barometer

15) Danmark Vejdirektoratet

8

LOGISTICS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Cars Vans Lorries

16) CBRE Research|17) Euromonitor

18) Apotea19) CNBC

9

LOGISTICS

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sweden Denmark Finland Norway

20) CBRE Research| 10

LOGISTICS

14% 20%0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

2020 2021 2022 2023

Speculative Pre-let

21) CBRE Research| 11

LOGISTICS

10%

25% 100%

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2020 2021 2022 2025

Speculative Build-to-suit

22) CBRE Research|23) Euromonitor

12

LOGISTICS

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sweden Denmark Finland Norway

23) “E-barometern Q2 2020”, PostNord|24) Statistisk Sentralbyrå, Igangsatt bruksareal till annet enn bolig

25) CBRE Research

13

LOGISTICS

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

Goods terminal Cold storage

Warehouse Post terminal

Other Cold storage, share of total %

26) SSB, Statistics Denmark, Tilastokeskus|27) SCB

28) CBRE Research29) “Felles strategi for gods og logistikk i Oslo reigionen”, 2012

14

LOGISTICS

0

1,500,000

3,000,000

4,500,000

6,000,000

7,500,000

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000

1,000,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

FINLAND Construction-starts warehouses, sq m

NORWAY Construction-starts warehouses, sq m

DENMARK construction-starts, Properties for commercial use, sq m (right)

30) SCB|31) SSB

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LOGISTICS

The most popular municipalities in NorwayThe largest amount of construction started logistics in m2 between 2010–2019

Ullensaker 221,700

Oslo 210,500

Nordre Follo 169,100

Vestby 152,500

Bergen 138,750

Lillestrøm 121,500

Kristiansand 117,000

Municipalities that have INCREASED ’000 m2

industrial land the most 2010-2016Municipalities that have DECREASED ‘000 m2 industrial land the most 2010-2016

Göteborg 539 Norrköping -390

Helsingborg 488 Jönköping -96

Borlänge 335 Örebro -75

Olofström 241 Lund -66

Piteå 225 Uppsala -63

Ludvika 208 Stockholm -60

Sigtuna 205 Malmö -58

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The team

CBRE NordicsCapital markets Industrial & Logistics

LOGISTICS

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© C o p y r i g h t 2 0 2 0 A l l r i g h t s r e s e r v e d . I n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n , i n c l u d i n g p r o j e c t i o n s , h a s b e e n o b t a i n e d f r o m s o u r c e s b e l i e v e d t o b e r e l i a b l e , b u t h a s n o t b e e n v e r i f i e d f o r a c c u r a c y o r c o m p l e t e n e s s . C B R E , I n c . m a k e s n o g u a r a n t e e , w a r r a n t y o r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n a b o u t i t . A n y r e l i a n c e o n s u c h i n f o r m a t i o n i s s o l e l y a t y o u r o w n r i s k . T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i s e x c l u s i v e l y f o r u s e b y C B R E c l i e n t s a n d p r o f e s s i o n a l s a n d m a y n o t b e r e p r o d u c e d w i t h o u t t h e p r i o r w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n o f C B R E ’ s G l o b a l C h i e f E c o n o m i s t .P h o t o s h e r e i n a r e t h e p r o p e r t y o f t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e o w n e r s . U s e o f t h e s e i m a g e s w i t h o u t t h e e x p r e s s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t o f t h e o w n e r i s p r o h i b i t e d .C B R E a n d t h e C B R E l o g o a r e s e r v i c e m a r k s o f C B R E , I n c . A l l o t h e r m a r k s d i s p l a y e d o n t h i s d o c u m e n t a r e t h e p r o p e r t y o f t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e o w n e r s , a n d t h e u s e o f s u c h l o g o s d o e s n o t i m p l y a n y a f f i l i a t i o n w i t h o r e n d o r s e m e n t o f C B R E .

Research

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