http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWXa-jowbqU (CBS report)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNiDTElPc5w (different source)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7tq2o2Hks4&playnext=1&list=PL21866BECC795DABC&feature=results_video (more recent view from Democratic strategist)

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Public Opinion, Public Opinion, Polls, Polls,

and the Mediaand the Media

Defining Public OpinionDefinition: aggregate of individual attitudes or

beliefs shared by some portion of the adult population

Guides leaders/politicians into what matters to the public (helps direct policy)

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Two types of opinionsConsensus opinion – when citizens

largely agree on an issueDivided opinion – when issue is

polarized between two distinct positions

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Public Opinion: Divided Opinion vs. Consensus Opinion

5Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning

Figure 6-1

Divided OpinionFigure 6-2

Consensus Opinion

How Public Opinion is Formed: Political SocializationPolitical socialization: process by which

people acquire political beliefs and valuesModels of political socialization

Family and social environment (most common) Less likely to occur from children to parents

Education More education, the more likely the person will be interested in

politics

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Peer and peer groupsAttitudes more likely to be shaped when peer

groups are directly involved in political activities

Opinion leaders (influences opinions of others)“formal” opinion leaders: public officials,

lobbyists, journalists, religious leaders“informal” leaders: close associates held in

high regard

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Impact of the Media on Public Opiniona) Write down opinion on Sarah Palin (what you know, heard, think you know, etc.)?b) Write down one (or more) policies that she supported that you agree with or disagree with? (if you can think of a policy)c) What shaped your opinion concerning Palin?

1) Peers? Family? 2) Saturday Night Live?3) Media/news?4) Research?

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Sarah Palin and Media http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1

lkr38c93M (NBC breaking news report on VP selection)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0jk_B4svLw (reporter reporting from a fake website…she doesn’t know it isn’t real…takes as truth…this is why it is important you do the research yourself after you hear something) "We write to see how far we can

get people to believe our nonsense. People believe anything they read on the Internet." Do readers get the joke? Just like with the media, not always.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHBCeidv9vE

SNLhttp://www.youtube.co

m/watch?v=cG1g5qvgtSg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IE-OCDexYrU

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The Impact of the MediaMedia strongly influences public opinion.Agenda setting effect

Determining which public policy questions will be debated or considered

Media can dictate what is important and decide how to present it

Many scholars contend media’s influence on public opinion is as strong as the family’s.

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Impact of new mediaFairness Doctrine: requiring radio and TV to present

controversial issues in a balanced way (enforced for decades by the FCC)Abolished in 1987 but some are wanting to revive

New forms: not so balanced outlets: (strengthens beliefs of viewers rather than change them)cable news Talk radio social blogs social networking

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The Influence of Political EventsMomentous political events can shape

attitudes of an entire generation.Generational effect (cohort effect)

ExamplesGreat DepressionWatergate break-inReagan popularity

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The Influence of Demographic Factors on Public Opinion/Ideology

Education In past, college degree holders voted Republican but not true today. Increase in Democrat voting with degree higher than Bachelor’s

Economic statusFamily income is strong predictor of economic liberalism or

conservatism Less income – lean more liberal (more intervention) More income – lean more conservative (less intervention by

government in economy) Small business owners tend to vote Republican

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Religious influenceDenomination (less valuable in past years)

Jewish individuals continue to vote more liberalNonreligious persons continue to be more liberal

on social issuesCatholics are no longer mainly Democrats Protestants are no longer largely RepublicanCatholics and Protestants have grown closer to each other politically

High levels in commitment/beliefs tend to be linked to cultural conservatism (greater value on social order) (hence “Bible Belt” voting more conservative)

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Influence of Race and EthnicityAfrican Americans:

more liberal on social welfare matters, civil liberties, foreign policy

Historically vote more Democratic since 1930s New Deal policies

Asian Americans: lean DemocraticVietnamese Americans – usually Republican

(strong anti-communist feelings after Vietnam War)

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Muslim AmericansMiddle Eastern descent – voted Republican in 2000 in

support of cultural conservatism but had turned largely Democratic by 2010 (possibly due to civil liberties issues)

Hispanic vote diverseMajority vote Democratic

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fRucQRijMk (Julian Castro)

Cuban Americans often Republican (possibly due to anti-communist tendencies) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0-_s0lLMas (Marco

Rubio and RNC speech)George W. Bush received large portion of Hispanic vote

in 2000 and 2004 but by 2008 Democratic candidates received more than 2/3s votes

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Gender GapDefinition: difference between the percentage

of women and men who vote for a particular candidateAnalysts began to detect in 1980 Election

Some women likely to:Oppose use of force abroadOppose capital punishmentShow concern about environmental and social

welfare programs

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2012 election and womenhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKsKQlX_zbg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBA7rPKhGtQ

(Ann Romney’s RNC speech start 10:00 and end 16:00)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTPdKUA9Ipg (Michelle Obama’s DNC speech start 15:15 and end 21:00ish)

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Geographic RegionNot as important today as in the pastSouthern, Midwest, and Rocky Mountain states tend

to support RepublicansPeople in large cities tend to be liberal and

Democratic

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STOP!!!!In assigned groups, you will be given a portion of a

chapter from a book to read about politicians, media, and public opinion. Read your assigned section (will be highlighted).Document facts from reading on handout.Presentations:

You will line up in order of your choosing. I will pull a number out of a cup and that person (in that number

order) will have to read the assigned material. I will pull another number out of the cup and that person will

have to discuss main points from reading.This activity will review previous material and introduce

points for next class!!!!20

Public Opinion Polls

Romney's bounce from convention looks short-lived: looking at various pollshttp://news.yahoo.com/poll-romneys-bounce-convention-looks-

short-lived-201257488.html (recent poll done...just scanning title can be misleading…read towards the end to see WHO was polled, HOW many, and the FORM)

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Reuters-poll-Obamacare-Romney/2012/07/01/id/444101 (Reuters/Ipsos)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/01/obamacare-supreme-court-ruling_n_1641560.html (same story/poll but different source…compare title of this article to previous article)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/reuters_ipsos_0612.pdf (another poll done by Ipsos…breaks down very specifically WHO was polled and HOW)

Opinion PollsDefine: method of systematically questioning a

small, selected sample of respondents who are deemed representative of the total population.Most common method of gathering and measuring the

feelings and beliefs of a democratic population

http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php (report card/reliability on the various polls in 2008 election)

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The History of Opinion PollsIn the 1800s, magazines conducted polls by

surveying their readers.Literary Digest conducted opinion polls by

mailing questionnaires to readers and conducting face to face interviews (then predicting election results with a 70% accuracy)

1936 – Roosevelt won by a landslide when he was predicted to be defeated (polls were done by wealthier than average Americans)

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Gallop and Roper pollsMarket research and sampling techniques

were introduced in the 1936 election.Did predict Roosevelt victory due to more

modern research techniques and creating respected survey organizations that remain today

Interview about 1500 individuals

Sampling techniqueshttp://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/4 (questions to ask when reviewing a

poll)“Random Sampling”

Must be representative and based on “randomness” (can’t interview every person in population)

Gives each person equal chance to be selected Surveying residents at random selection of phone numbers from

various geographic and demographic locations Usually very high accuracy rate, usually with a margin or +/- 3%

“Quota Sampling”Based on demographics (certain types of people)

Interviewers find necessary types of people to answer questionsMay be nonrandom, inaccurate, and biased

Pollshttp://www.rasmussenreports.com/http://www.gallup.com/corporate/115/About-Gallup.a

spxhttp://www.outsidethebeltway.com/todd-akin-within-o

ne-point-of-claire-mccaskill-in-new-poll/ (sometimes, you have to go to “About Us” to view ideological views/history of polling group)

http://pewresearch.org/about/ http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/opinion/polls/main

500160.shtml

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48NgtfRvEkU (Luntz)

Problems with PollsPolls are only a snapshot of an opinion at one

specific moment.Sampling errors

Difference between the sample result and the true result (if entire population had been interviewed)

Occurs when samples are too small or are biased Can control by taking a large enough random sample

Poll questions Design and delivery of questions can affect results Structure of questions (yes/no), phrasing, terminology, order of

questions, answer options, interactions…Unscientific or fraudulent polls

Any with self-selected respondent should be viewed with great skepticism (most on news stations)

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Luntz and Charlotte residentshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAQALhKy-N4 Listen to the types of questions asked…

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Public Opinion and the Political Process

Strong support from the public can be a source of power in dealing with other politicians

Public opinion can help candidates identify important concerns & issues

American political culture provides support for political systemshared by citizens of different backgrounds and different

attitudes about country, government, and its beliefs (life, equality, property)

Consists of symbols such as American flag, Statute of Liberty

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Public Opinion about InstitutionsPolitical Trust: degree to which individuals express trust

in political institutions Military and religious organizations have ranked

highestSupreme Court and banking industry ranked fairly high

over timeLess confidence in media, big business, organized

labor, and Congress

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Public Opinion about Institutions

At times, popular confidence in all institutions may rise or fall, reflecting optimism or pessimism about the general state of the nation.People expect government to solve the “most important

problems” facing the countryProblems can shift abruptly and seem contradictory

(immediate concerns)Policymakers cannot be ruled by public opinion

Must make some choices and trade-offs (cannot satisfy every constituent); must evaluate costs

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THE MEDIA

The Media and PoliticsAbout 90% of Americans

use television news as their primary source of information.

The Internet is now the second most widely used source of information, displacing newspapers.

AP Photo/Kristie Bull/Graylock.com

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Functions of the MediaEntertainment

• Greatest number of radio and TV hours

Reporting the newsIdentify public

problemsPublic agenda

Reporting on certain issues can increase awareness and policy support

Make profits• Come from advertising

revenues which may influence newsroom operations

• Focused on ratings

Socialize new generation

Provide political forums

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Television’s influence on the political process

TV is constrained because it has only a short time to tell the story.

Importance of video imageSound bite (brief and superficial small clips aimed at

having immediate impact on viewers)“drama” of long campaigns and daily congressional

activities is hard to portray without the mechanics of a “story line” or “plot.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJAz8D14wDQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-c1ahIBDcw

1st clip: Fox News

2nd clip: MSNBC

The Media and Political CampaignsBecause TV is so influential, politicians

must devise ways to use it for their benefits.

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AdvertisingCandidates in 2008 and 2010 elections spent about $3 billion in advertisingNegative political ads can backfire when there are three or more candidates

in the race.History of political ads (becoming more negative)

Ike - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TctDYRECE9o LBJ - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STXz6Ukkl4U Reagan - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU-IBF8nwSY Obama ad against Clinton during primary- http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=cWvHbOoG3tI Bush ad (appeals to emotion) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=LWA052-Bl48 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiE0SkKj_kA (Romney ad against

Obama)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhQlnx1NSUw (Obama ad against

Romney)

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Management of News Coverage

TV spots expensive but coverage of a candidate by the news media is freeTo get favorable and accurate message out, staffers plan

around technical aspects and deadlines, grant favors to networks, and stage interesting photogenic events

Press advisers rely on SPIN to interpret political events as favorable to their candidate or officeholder, acting as SPIN DOCTORSSpin City (tv show)

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Going for the Knockout Punch-Presidential DebatesPerformance of the candidates in debates

is just as important as advertisements and news coverage.

Challengers have more to gain by debating than incumbents.1960 presidential debates

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u02nZW0QiSE 2008 presidential debates

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0VOWqrD_0A

40Copyright 2012 Cengage Learning

Political Campaigns and the Internet

The Internet is a way to advertise and raise money for a campaign, generate coverageMost candidates have Internet campaign strategiesIt is difficult to manage coverage on blogs and

Internet websites.Supporters may engage in activities that the

candidate may not support.Examples: Obama’s outspoken pastor giving controversial

sermons; McCain’s overzealous supporters taking his allegations of Obama radicalism too far

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Government Regulation of the Media

U.S. has a very free press compared to the rest of the world but regulation of media does exist.

FCC regulates: Radio, TV, Wire and cableCreated environment in which the three major networks

dominated broadcastingTelecommunication Act of 1996

Allowed telephone companies to enter other media markets but also cleared way for large corporations to control media ownerships

Had far-reaching implications for communications

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Government Control of ContentU.S. Supreme Court has been slow to give

free speech and press guarantees to new media.

TV and radio do not have full First Amendment protections.Government can restrict indecent programming.FCC can assess fines for indecency and profanityOne exception: its quick extension of full protection to the

Internet

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Bias in the MediaDO YOU THINK THERE IS BIAS IN THE MEDIA?

US WeeklyPrior to the presidential election in 2008, the

magazine US Weekly released its magazine with two different covers.

In the store, you could purchase the magazine with one of the two covers.

On the next slide, you will see the two versions.

After looking at the covers, do you think US Weekly was promoting one candidate over the other?

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Americans have long argued that there is ongoing bias in mainstream media.Both sides claim media is bias

Rise of blogs and online outlets has complicated issue of media bias.

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Bias in the MediaPeople claim that the media is biased.

Both sides claim the media is biased. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKIUCjbh_Q4 (Chris Wallace and Jon

Stewart interview) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UyaIR5XxNI (MSNBC attacking Fox

News…irony…MSNBC/Olbermann doing exactly what he is accusing FoxNews doing)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrsI6ELO8Gg (Glenn Beck attacking Olbermann)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOPelKpGkd8 (Jon Stewart…liberal comedian)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-ISOmqlRN0 (Dennis Miller and O’Reilly…conservative comedian)

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Other theories of media biasCommunications professor has examined how ABC,

CBS, NBC, and FOX news reported public opinion polls that assessed the job performance of two presidents.ABC,CBS,NBC gave Bill Clinton more favorable coverageFOX news gave George W. Bush more favorable

coverageScientific test for bias?

2005 UCLA report http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/Media-Bias-Is-Real-Finds-

UCLA-6664.aspx

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Unj-kcGOe5I (O’Reilly and Barney Frank)

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