ccim institute 2q14 quarterly market trends

QUARTERLY MARKET TRENDS u NATIONAL ASSOCIAT ION OF REALTORS ® AND CCIM INST ITUTE 2

Headline Line HEADLINE

Vacancy Rate34%

2Q • 14

Dear CCIM Institute members,

Welcome to the second-quarter 2014 edition of CCIM Institute’s Quarterly

Market Trends. The report provides timely insight into major commercial real

estate indicators for core income-producing properties. It is produced by the

National Association of Realtors® in conjunction with and for members of the

CCIM Institute, the premier provider of commercial real estate education.

The second-quarter 2014 report features commentary from Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,

NAR chief economist, and George Ratiu, director of NAR’s quantitative and

commercial research. It also includes market analysis and data collected from

CCIM members that illustrate regional economic and transactional trends across the U.S. I’d like to thank

the CCIM members who participated in the survey and shared insights on their local markets.

I hope that the information provided in CCIM’s Quarterly Market Trends report provides both economic and

commercial real estate market information that will assist you in your business strategies in 2014 and beyond.

Help CCIM make this report even more valuable by participating in the next QMT survey. Watch your email

for details.

Sincerely,

Karl Landreneau, CCIM

2014 CCIM Institute President

[email protected]

Quarterly Market TRENDS

July 2014 FOREWORD


2Q • 14


CCIM Transaction Survey Highlights 4

Commercial Property Sector Analysis 5

Commercial Real Estate Market Update 10

Commercial Real Estate Forecast 13

U S Economic Overview 14

U S Metropolitan Economic Outlook 21

Sponsors 24

Contributors 25

Table of CONTENTS

Vacancy Rate34%

Vacancy Rate34%

Vacancy Rate34%



2Q • 14Quarterly Market Trends

CCIM Transaction Survey HIGHLIGHTS

Year-over-year deal flow saw the BIGGEST GAINS in the industrial sector, with 70% of CCIM respondents reporting an increase in transactions in 2Q14.

According to CCIM members, the multifamily sector’s investment conditions were the MOST FAVOR-ABLE in 2Q14, followed by industrial, retail, hospitality, and office.

INVESTMENT CONDITIONS: MULTIFAMILY RANKS HIGHEST IN 2Q14

AVERAGE RATING SCALE: 1 (LOW) TO 5 (HIGH)

GREATEST DEAL FLOW INCREASE: INDUSTRIAL

2Q14 YOY % BY SECTOR

CREDIT CONDITIONS

2Q14 YOY % BY SECTOR

Current credit conditions are expected to IMPROVE, according to 60% of CCIM respondents, while 35% consider the current tightness to be the new normal.

With rising deals and investor confidence, CCIM Institute members provided insights into their markets in a May/June 2014 survey.

OFFICE MULTI- FAMILY

INDUS-TRIAL

RETAIL HOSPI-TALITY

INDUS-TRIAL

RETAIL OFFICE HOTEL MULTI-FAMILY

EXPECT CREDIT CONDITIONS TO

IMPROVE

CONSIDER THE CURRENT TIGHT-NESS TO BE THE NEW NORMAL

EXPECT CREDIT CONDITIONS TO TIGHTEN

FURTHER.

About 54% OF CCIM MEMBERS INDICATED MORE DEALS IN 2Q14 compared to same period the year before.

66% OF RESPONDENTS INDICATED MORE INQUIRIES RELATED TO BUYING, while 10% said they received more inquiries from clients who wanted to sell assets.

Property prices continued to firm in 2Q14 with 33% of respondents reporting prices similar to last year, while 49% REPORTED HIGHER PRICES.

The CAP RATE GAP BETWEEN BUYERS AND SELLERS NARROWED IN 2Q14, according to 45% of CCIM members. Forty-three percent of

respondents said the cap rate gap remained flat.

Rents increased, with 55% OF CCIMs INDICATING HIGHER RENTS YOY; 28% of respondents indicated similar rents YOY.

Cap rates compressed slightly during 2Q14, with 54% OF RESPONDENTS INDICATING RATES REMAINED THE SAME AS LAST YEAR; 38% dealt with lower rates.

About 46% OF RESPONDENTS EXPECT RENTS AND PRICES TO MOVE TOGETHER in the next few years. Twenty-two percent said rent growth will outpace price growth,

while 32% said prices are expected to outperform rents.

48% OF CCIM RESPONDENTS EXPECT TREASURY YIELDS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME; 21% of respondents indicated that Treasury yields will rise, but will only mini-mally impact cap rates due to the current spreads; 10% of CCIMs said Treasury yield increases will push up cap rates.

An average of 35% OF RESPONDENTS INDICATED MEANINGFUL IMPROVE-MENT IN CREDIT AVAILABILITY compared to last year; 55% reported

marginal improvement.

5

4

3

2

1

0

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0



Commercial Property SECTOR ANALYSIS

NATIONAL OFFICE MARKETS

Office trends moderated in the second quarter for CCIM members:

l Deal flow was higher for 50 percent of CCIM members (compared with 55 percent in 2Q13). l Property prices were higher for 43 percent of CCIM, while 34 percent found them to be flat. l Cap rates were even for 69 percent of CCIMs, and lower for 24 percent of respondents. l Rental income was flat for 28 percent of respondents; higher for 59 percent of CCIMs. l 54 percent of respondents had more serious buying inquiries (compared with 51 in 2Q13).

FINANCE OUTLOOK / Office Properties %

The current tight conditions will be the new normal

Credit will become even more difficult to access over time

Credit will be more readily accessible over time

Source: CCIM Institute, National Association of Realtors®

FINANCE TRENDS (YoY) / Office Properties %

Credit availability is just as tight as last year with no improvement

Credit availability has turned for the worse and is even tighter than last year

Credit availability has only marginally improved

Credit availability has meaningfully improved from last year


0 20 40 60 800 10 20 30 40 50 60




NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL MARKETS

The industrial landscape recorded improvements during the second quarter:

l Industrial deal flow was higher year-over-year for 70 percent of respondents (vs. 60 percent in 2Q13). l Prices were even for 40 percent of CCIMs, and higher for 52 percent of respondents. l Cap rates were flat for 60 percent, while 32 percent reported lower cap rates. l 62 percent of CCIM members reported higher rents. l CCIM members reported 82 percent more buying inquiries during the quarter.

FINANCE OUTLOOK / Industrial Properties %





FINANCE TRENDS (YoY) / Industrial Properties %






0 10 20 30 40 50 600 10 20 30 40 50




NATIONAL RETAIL MARKETS

The retail sector saw mild improvement in the second quarter:

l Retail deals increased for 59 percent of CCIMs (compared with 63 percent in 2Q13). l Prices were higher for 44 percent of respondents and flat for 40 percent of respondents. l Cap rates were the same for 56 percent of CCIMs, and lower for 37 percent. l Rental income rose for 53 percent of CCIM members (vs. 67 percent in 2Q13). l CCIM members reported 62 percent greater buying inquiries during the quarter.

FINANCE OUTLOOK / Retail Properties %





FINANCE TRENDS (YoY) / Retail %






0 20 40 60 800 20 40 60 80




NATIONAL APARTMENT MARKETS

As more supply entered the market, trends for apartment properties moved sideways:

l 46 percent of CCIM members reported more deals YOY (58 percent in 2Q13). l Prices were higher for 69 percent of respondents (vs. 51 percent in 2Q13). l Cap rates were flat for 26 percent of members and lower for 63 percent. l Rental income rose for 56 percent of CCIMs (vs. 49 percent in 2Q13). l 77 percent of respondents said they received more serious buying inquiries.

FINANCE OUTLOOK / Multifamily %





FINANCE TRENDS (YoY) / Multifamily %






0 20 40 60 800 20 40 60 80




NATIONAL HOTEL MARKETS

Activity in the hospitality sector dropped the second quarter:

l Sales of hotels were higher for 50 percent of CCIMs (vs. 80 percent in 2Q13). l Prices increased for 50 percent of respondents YOY (vs. 40 percent in 2Q13). l Cap rates were higher for 50 percent of respondents.

FINANCE OUTLOOK / Hospitality %





FINANCE TRENDS (YoY) / Hospitality %






0 30 60 90 1200 20 40 60 80



Commercial Real Estate Market UPDATE

Commercial real estate fundamentals

appeared to be favorable, with

declining vacancies, space absorption,

rent increases, and—to a lesser

degree—leasing improvements,

according to the 2Q14 CCIM Market

Intelligence Survey results and a

range of industry data sources.

OFFICE

On a national basis, net absorp-

tion continued on a positive trend,

while moderate new construction

translated into vacancy declines.

Office absorption weathered the

first quarter well, despite anemic

job growth, and vacancy declined

nationally by 10 basis points. Net

absorption for office buildings rose

by 9.8 million square feet, based on

data from Reis. The increase was the

highest quarterly gain since the latter

half of 2007. In addition, supply of

new office space rose by 6.3 million

square feet during the quarter.

Job growth provided the major

differentiator in office performance

across markets. In technology and

energy centers, employment gains

led to strong office demand and high

rent growth. The top 10 markets by

growth in effective rent included San

Jose, Calif., San Francisco, Dallas,

Houston, Austin, Texas, Seattle, and

Oklahoma City. Washington, D.C.,

and New York continued their tussle

for top spot. After another reversal

during 4Q13, Washington, D.C., took

back the title of the tightest market,

with a 9.7 percent availability rate.

Asking rents for office space advanced

0.7 percent in the 1Q14, according

to Reis. Effective rents rose by 0.8

percent during the same period,

averaging about $24 per square foot.

Asking rents are expected to grow by

2.5 percent this year.

INDUSTRIAL

In the wake of strong performance

figures in the latter part of 2013,

industrial fundamentals softened

during 1Q14 as the economy dipped.

Availability rates declined 10 basis

points from the previous quarter.

Net absorption for warehouses was

15.4 million square feet, while

absorption of flex space totaled 2.4

million square feet. Flex space

demand jumped more than 50

percent from 4Q13, as new supply

slowed in tandem with rising

demand. Completions of flex space

were a scant 150,000 square feet in

1Q14, according to Reis. New ware-

house space came online to the tune

of 9.4 million square feet.

Regionally, distribution centers regis-

tered the strongest numbers. Markets

such as Houston and San Bernardino/

Riverside, Calif., posted rent growth

in excess of 3.0 percent during 1Q14.

Atlanta and Kansas City, Mo., also

showed upbeat rent growth with

identical increases of 2.9 percent.

Memphis, Tenn., and Chicago

recorded rent gains of 2.7 percent and

2.6 percent respectively. Asking rents

are estimated to grow 2.4 percent by

year-end as demand for space is

expected to remain strong.

Vacancy Rate34%IN TECHNOLOGY AND ENERGY CENTERS, EMPLOYMENT GAINS LED TO STRONG OFFICE DEMAND AND HIGH RENT GROWTH.




RETAIL

Retail leasing took the brunt of the

winter weather in 1Q14. National

vacancy rates stayed flat for the

quarter, as demand and supply

slowed down. Net absorption of

retail space totaled 698,000 square

feet, according to Reis. The main

driver in the decline seemed to have

been the termination of Midwest-

based grocer Dominick’s operations.

Its closing led to 2.6 million square

feet of empty space. Construction of

new retail space was also impacted

by the weather—new supply reached

just 650,000 square feet in 1Q14.

In line with differing regional

economic recoveries, retail funda-

mentals were split. Coastal markets,

including New York, San Francisco,

San Jose, and Los Angeles, remained

the tightest in terms of retail vacancy.

Markets with high employment

growth, such as Houston, Atlanta,

and Denver also witnessed strong

demand. And during a prolonged

cold spell, warm tourist destinations

saw favorable demand, including Ft.

Lauderdale, Fla., Orange County,

Calif., and Palm Beach, Fla.

Retail asking rents increased by

0.4 percent in the first quarter, as

effective rents gained 0.5 percent,

based on Reis data. Asking rents are

expected to advance 2.0 percent by

year-end.

MULTIFAMILY

Apartments remained well posi-

tioned in the 1Q14. Demand for

apartments was positive, especially

in light of the weather and broader

economic trends. Net absorption

totaled 41,881 units, according to

Reis. Completions of new units

slowed down significantly, however,

reaching only 25,745 units. The

national vacancy rate declined 20

basis points.

New Haven, Conn., continued as

the tightest apartment market, with

a vacancy rate of just 2.3 percent

during the 1Q14. Several California

markets also registered low vacan-

cies, including San Jose, San Diego,

and Riverside/San Bernardino.

Apartment asking rents have been

slowing down in light of very tight

availability. In 1Q14, asking rents

advanced by 0.5 percent and effective

rents rose 0.6 percent, according to

Reis. Landlords may have gotten past

the peak of rent growth, especially

given the 96 percent occupancy rate

coupled with stagnant wages and

slow employment outlook. National

asking rents were $1,138 per unit in

the first quarter. Asking apartment

rents are expected to rise 4.0 percent

by year-end.

DEMAND FOR APARTMENTS WAS POSITIVE, ESPECIALLY

IN LIGHT OF THE WEATHER AND BROADER

ECONOMIC TRENDS.

COASTAL MARKETS— INCLUDING NEW YORK, SAN FRANCISCO, SAN JOSE, AND LOS ANGELES— REMAINED

THE TIGHTEST IN TERMS OF

RETAIL VACANCY.

Vacancy Rate34%



COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT ACTIVITY

Sales of commercial real estate assets

at the lower-end of the price scale

rose 11 percent YOY and sale prices

increased approximately 4 percent,

according to National Association of

Realtors 1Q14 commercial real estate

data. Prices for properties at the

higher-end of the price range rose

14.8 percent, according to Real Capital

Analytics. In addition, commercial real

estate sales prices in the six major

markets rose at a faster rate (17.1

percent) than those in secondary and

tertiary markets (13.6 percent).

Cap rates for properties at the lower

end of the price spectrum averaged

8.2 percent in 1Q14, a 50 basis point

decrease from the previous quarter,

according to NAR data. Apartments

recorded the lowest average cap rate

for the quarter at 7.7 percent, while

office and retail cap rates averaged

8.0 percent and industrial properties

posted cap rates of 8.1 percent.

Vacancy Rate34%


NATIONAL AVERAGE CAP RATES (%)

Apt/Multifamily Office CBD Office Suburban Industrial Warehouse Industrial Flex Retail Hotel/Lodging Development Land


0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

CAP RATES BY REGION CANADA EAST MIDWEST OTHER SOUTH WEST & MEXICO

Apartment Cap Rate 5 5% 6 5% 7 1% 9 3% 6 9% 5 7%Office CBD Cap Rate 7 6 7 9 8 8 7 2 7 5 6 9 Office Suburban Cap Rate 10 0 8 5 8 8 7 7 8 4 7 5Warehouse Cap Rate 6 2 7 9 8 3 7 2 8 1 6 9Flex Cap Rate 6 3 8 3 8 6 7 9 8 4 7 2Retail Cap Rate 5 8 7 4 8 1 7 7 7 7 7 1Hotel Cap Rate 7 9 8 1 7 9 7 9 7 6Development Cap Rate 11 9 8 0 7 3 9 9 9 7Land Cap Rate 12 2 7 5 9 5 8 1 8 8

© 2014 The CCIM Institute, National Association of Realtors®

INVESTMENT VALUE VS. PRICE RATIO

Office 3 0Multifamily 3 0Industrial 3 2Retail 3 0Hospitality 3 0

© 2014 The CCIM Institute, National Association of Realtors® Based on May/June 2014 CCIM transaction survey.

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0



Due to a number of factors, the U.S. economy is expected to perform at a quicker pace during the remainder of

2014. However, the pace of growth remains muted, tempering expectations for commercial real estate. Absorption is

projected to continue growing, leading to declining vacancies across most property types. The forecast below projects

conditions for the commercial sector through 2015.

Commercial Real Estate FORECAST

Commercial Real Estate / FORECAST THROUGH 2015 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2014 2015

OFFICE

Vacancy Rate 15 80% 15 60% 15 70% 15 70% 15 60% 15 50% 15 60% 16 00% 15 60%Net Absorption 9,803 10,980 9,020 11,369 12,663 13,358 12,452 39,676 49,841(‘000 sq ft ) Completions (‘000 sq ft ) 6,745 5,504 5,652 10,153 11,653 10,606 10,455 23,537 42,866Inventory (‘000,000 sq ft ) 4,121 4,126 4,132 4,142 4,154 4,164 4,175 4,132 4,175Rent Growth 0 60% 0 60% 0 60% 0 70% 0 80% 0 90% 0 80% 2 50% 3 20% INDUSTRIAL

Vacancy Rate 9 00% 8 90% 8 80% 8 70% 8 70% 8 60% 8 50% 8 90% 8 60%Net Absorption 26,962 32,355 29,119 19,283 26,782 32,138 28,924 107,849 107,127(‘000 sq ft ) Completions (‘000 sq ft ) 23,733 22,202 14,546 14,309 21,122 19,760 12,946 76,558 68,137Inventory (‘000,000 sq ft ) 8,473 8,496 8,510 8,525 8,546 8,565 8,578 8,510 8,578Rent Growth 0 60% 0 60% 0 70% 0 60% 0 70% 0 70% 0 60% 2 40% 2 60% RETAIL

Vacancy Rate 10 00% 9 90% 9 80% 9 90% 9 80% 9 80% 9 70% 10 00% 9 80%Net Absorption 3,353 3,095 4,255 5,373 4,553 3,533 6,157 11,543 19,616(‘000 sq ft ) Completions (‘000 sq ft ) 1,842 2,110 2,342 3,398 2,935 3,299 3,368 8,404 13,001Inventory (‘000,000 sq ft ) 2,038 2,040 2,042 2,046 2,049 2,052 2,056 2,042 2,056Rent Growth 0 50% 0 50% 0 60% 0 50% 0 60% 0 60% 0 60% 2 00% 2 30% MULTIFAMILY

Vacancy Rate 4 00% 4 00% 4 10% 4 10% 4 10% 4 20% 4 20% 4 00% 4 00%Net Absorption (Units) 57,612 55,397 66,476 44,087 40,930 39,233 48,804 221,366 173,055Completions (Units) 47,450 46,161 49,495 30,032 38,146 34,834 36,965 178,655 139,976Inventory 10 1 10 2 10 2 10 3 10 3 10 3 10 4 10 2 10 4(Units in millions) Rent Growth 1 00% 1 00% 0 90% 0 90% 1 00% 1 00% 1 10% 4 00% 4 00%

Sources: National Association of Realtors® / Reis, Inc.

Copyright © 2014 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Reproduction, reprinting or retransmission in any form is prohibited without written permission. For questions regarding this matter please e-mail [email protected].



U.S. Economic OVERVIEW

Employment and job growth appear

to be the most important drivers of

the need for commercial real estate.

To a significant degree, the country’s

gross domestic product and jobs vary

together. The overall performance

of the economy has been mediocre

in recent years following the Great

Recession—growth has been positive

but somewhat less than what would

normally be expected. However,

economic growth is expected to pick

up over the next several years, which

should have a favorable impact on

the demand for commercial space.

MAKING PROGRESS AT MIDYEAR

The economy produced some disap-

pointing results during 1Q14. Real

GDP growth was around -2.9 percent,

and unemployment was in the neigh-

borhood of 6.7 percent, declining to

6.3 percent in May. The harsh winter

weather appears to have been a major

cause of the decline in GDP, but the

economy had already been performing

at a sluggish rate—essentially since

the end of the Great Recession.

Most economists expect the economy

to pick up in the forthcoming

months, and preliminary indications

suggest a growth rate in the neigh-

borhood of 3 percent by the end of

the year. However, on a yearly basis

the overall GDP growth projection

for 2014 is 1.9 percent, along with

unemployment at 6.3 percent and

continued low inflation and interest

rates. In short, recent economic

performance could be termed as

mediocre with the economy now

expected to be on an uptrend.

However, a number of economic

uncertainties, such as energy prob-

lems from the Middle East, a

potential decline in the stock market

that shakes consumer confidence,

and a lack of enthusiasm and confi-

dence about economic conditions,

may pose problems that cause

economic growth to be less than

would normally occur.

Real GDP growth for 2014 is

projected at 1.9 percent, below the

normal 3 percent growth rate.

However, exports will probably pick

up as foreign economies continue to

expand and business inventories

appear likely to increase. Therefore,

economic growth is projected to

resume for the rest of the year in the

neighborhood of 2.7 to 3 percent.

U.S. ECONOMY: A DETAILED ANALYSIS

Economists analyze the economy in

terms of consumption, investment,

government expenditures, and net

exports when making projections

of economic activity. A focus on

the factors that could cause the four

categories to vary can show potential

upward or downward shifts in the

economy.

GDP GROWTH RATE THROUGH 1Q14

10.0 % 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

80 Q1

81 Q1

82 Q1

83 Q1

84 Q1

85 Q1

86 Q1

87 Q1

88 Q1

89 Q1

90 Q1

91 Q1

92 Q1

93 Q1

94 Q1

95 Q1

96 Q1

97 Q1

98 Q1

99 Q1

00 Q1

01 Q1

02 Q1

03 Q1

04 Q1

05 Q1

06 Q1

07 Q1

08 Q1

09 Q1

10 Q1

11 Q1

12 Q1

13 Q1

14 Q1




Consumers account for approxi-

mately 70 percent of GDP economic

activity. The Consumer Confidence

Index is an indicator measures the

degree of optimism on the state of

the economy that consumers are

expressing through their activities

of saving and spending. The index

is issued by The Conference Board,

based on a monthly survey of 5,000

households. Opinions on current

conditions make up 40 percent of the

index, with expectations of future

conditions comprising the remaining

60 percent. The index has recovered

from its depth of 25.3 in February of

2009 during the Great Recession but

still continues to be somewhat lower

than would be expected in a normally

expanding economy. One would

expect an increase in consumption to

occur with an increase in consumer

confidence, part of which appears

to be currently driven by emotional

reactions to news reports. Assuming

continued economic recovery, the

uncertainties are probably more

towards the upside.

Recent fluctuations in household

wealth coupled with continued

job market problems have prob-

ably contributed to the currently

muted level of consumer confidence.

Changes in consumer confidence

can occur relatively quickly, so the

current Consumer Confidence Index

level and direction suggests that

good economic news could impact

the index, thereby setting the stage

for additional economic expansion

in terms of personal consumption

expenditures. Nevertheless, income

and wealth issues are relevant

in examining the overall level of

personal consumption expenditures.

Another factor affecting consumer

confidence appears to have been

declining median family income and

a lack of growth in worker earnings.

Stated in constant dollars, families do

not appear to have benefitted from

the economic recovery. These factors

tend to limit consumer spending from

what it would otherwise have been in

addition to creating rancorous press

coverage which also appears to nega-

tively impact confidence. On a longer

term basis, there are numerous reports

in the press concerning the concen-

tration of wealth and income in

upper-bracket individuals as the

economy changes. In contrast, about

one-third of American households

are reported as living hand-to-

mouth, meaning that they spend all

their paychecks.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Source: The Conference Board

06 77

12 78

06 80

12 81

06 83

12 84

06 86

12 87

06 89

12 90

06 92

12 93

06 95

12 96

06 98

12 99

06 01

12 02

06 04

12 05

06 07

12 08

06 10

12 11

06 13

MO YR

THE CCI HAS RECOVERED FROM ITS DEPTH DURING THE GREAT RECESSION, BUT CONTINUES TO BE

LOWER THAN EXPECTED IN A NORMALLY

EXPANDING ECONOMY.




EMPLOYMENT’S EFFECTS

Employment trends and job avail-

ability have been difficult for many

consumers. The unemployment rate

continues to fall, based on people

actively seeking work. However,

unemployment continues to be high

relative to normal expectations. Most

of the recent drop in unemployment

appears to have occurred as a result

of potential workers leaving the job

market—and therefore not actively

seeking employment. In addition,

the percentage of people actually in

the work force has declined signifi-

cantly from a few years ago.

As measured in terms of “Establish-

ment Employment” the number of

people actually working has recov-

ered from the depths of the Great

Recession, but we appear to have lost

four years of employment growth as

a result of the Great Recession.

In order to meet the expanding job

needs of the U.S. economy due to

population growth, the economy

needs to add approximately 150,000

new jobs every month just to stay

even. Any jobs added above 150,000

can help to reduce the number of

unemployed and underemployed

potential workers. Employment

has accelerated modestly in recent

months, which should help to

continue the downward pressure on

the unemployment rate. However,

a significant number of people have

been out of work for six months

or longer. The longer people are

out of work, the more their skills

erode. If former workers are perma-

nently frozen out of the job market,

economic growth is negatively

impacted. In addition, the number

of people working part-time due to

economic reasons is substantial, and

workers entering the job markets are

reported as having difficulty finding

jobs with upscale growth potential.

In the coming year, growth of

personal consumption expenditure

should at least equal what has been

experienced over the past year since

both job and GDP growth are posi-

tive. Considering all of the factors

mentioned, on balance we could even

see some upscale potential beyond

that which is projected. However, for

the longer run, in order for personal

consumption expenditures to achieve

significantly greater growth it may be

necessary for lower income earners to

leave part-time employment and to

participate to a greater degree in the

growth of the economy.

INVESTMENT

Both residential and business invest-

ments continue to recover from

the depths of the Great Recession.

Total investment is approximately

16 percent of the GDP and has

been rising. The change in private

inventories—which makes up

approximately 4 percent of total

investment—is, however, quite vola-

tile and through a multiplier effect

can have some impact on GDP. For

the next few quarters any changes in

investment impacts on the economy

are likely to be positive.

Looking at quarterly changes in

investment, it is clear that inventory

investment is relatively small but is

also subject to fairly wide swings in

magnitude. During 1Q14, there was a

significant decline in business inven-

tory investment, reportedly due to

weather. Companies were reported

as sharply cutting back on their

restocking of goods—partly due to

weather, partly due to demand. This

should reverse for the rest of the

year: The economy is on an upswing

Vacancy Rate34%




and weather impacts are unlikely.

There do not appear to be any major

changes in investment likely over the

next year which would impact the

economic projections.

GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES

Federal, state, and local government

expenditures account for approxi-

mately 19 percent of the GDP.

Measured on a constant dollar basis,

government expenditures have

declined slightly in recent years.

Looking to the future, one would

expect government expenditures to

stabilize and probably rise. Some of

the areas prominently mentioned

include medical, infrastructure,

education, and social services. However,

major changes in government

expenditures are unlikely this year

and will probably not affect current

economic projections in this paper.

NET EXPORTS

Net exports declined slightly during

the first quarter of 2014, accounting

for a portion of the negative 2.9 percent

decline: Exports declined and imports

increased. Foreign economies on

balance now seem to be on an expan-

sionary track, suggesting a pickup in

exports in following quarters.

ADDITIONAL FACTORS

In addition to looking at the compo-

nents of GDP, it is appropriate to

consider trends in monetary policy,

inflation, housing, and general

risks in making an economic fore-

cast. Overall, the trends in these

areas seem to be favorable, further

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

INVENTORY CHANGE RESIDENTIAL NON-RESIDENTIAL

INVESTMENT TRENDS

00 Q1

00 Q4

01 Q3

02 Q2

03 Q1

03 Q4

04 Q3

05 Q2

06 Q1

06 Q4

07 Q3

08 Q2

09 Q1

09 Q4

10 Q3

11 Q2

12 Q1

12 Q4

13 Q3

Source: National Association of Realtors®



INFLATION: PERCENT CHANGE YOY

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3


substantiating that there may be

some upscale potential to the fore-

cast and continued evidence that the

expansion will continue.

MONETARY POLICY

In the case of monetary policy, the

good news is that interest rates are

projected to remain relatively low

by historical standards. Credit stan-

dards have been unreasonably tight

in recent years, largely as part of the

fallout from the Great Recession. In

recent months there has been some

easing in terms of credit availability,

and hopefully this will continue.

The Federal Reserve is expected to

continue decreasing quantitative

easing, and an interest rate hike

seems likely at some point in late

2014 or 2015. However, none of the

possible changes that seem likely in

monetary policy are seen as having a

significantly negative impact on the

economic forecast.

INFLATION

Inflation has been relatively modest

in recent years. The Federal Reserve

has indicated that an inflation rate of

2 percent would provide the appro-

priate stimulation to the economy.

A major component of the inflation

rate is the cost of housing, which

factors very heavily into the CPI and

is based to a significant degree on

imputed homeowner costs based

on apartment rents. In the past

year, apartment rents have been

increasing, and the impact will be

an increase in the reported inflation

rate. In addition, declining unem-

ployment should eventually put

upward pressure on prices. However,

the inflation outlook does not appear

to have a significant impact on the

current economic forecast.

MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS

Manufacturers’ shipments declined

in January—presumably due to

weather--but subsequently resumed

their upward trend. Shipments

are an indicator of the strength of

the economy and substantiate the

current economic forecast.

HOUSING

Housing is a major economic driver.

The sale of an existing home adds

approximately $30,000 to the GDP,

and the sale of a new single family

home adds over $250,000 to the GDP.

Home sales for new and existing

homes have been climbing out of the

valley created by the Great Recession.

However, several factors have been

holding sales back.

Although interest rates have been

and continue to be low by historic

standards, credit availability has been

excessively restrictive. In the case of

new construction, small builders,

who have typically accounted for

approximately one half of new

construction, have been unable to

obtain adequate access to credit or

Source: Federal Reserve Board

ALL ITEMS ALL ITEMS EXCL. FOOD & ENERGY

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012




were eliminated by the Great Reces-

sion. In any case, this has had a

major negative impact on housing

permits for single family and multi-

family units, which have been in the

neighborhood of a million units

per year or less instead of the

expected 1.5 million units yearly. In

addition, the Millennials are the

next generation for home owner-

ship, but so far that has not occurred.

Family formation for Millennials

has been slower than expected,

possibly due to a combination of

factors such as the slow economy,

changing social customs, debt levels,

and expectations as a result of the

Great Recession. Between 2007 and

2014, median incomes for the gener-

ation segment aged 25 to 34 (the

typical age for a first-time home

purchase) have decreased at a rate

of 9 percent.

For the short run, none of the

negative factors impacting housing

appear likely to get worse in the next

year; in fact, there appears to be a

modest increase in lending as well as

job growth, so any risk to the

economic forecast is upwards rather

than downwards.

RISKS: UNCERTAINTIES AND PROBLEMS

In the short term, the major risks to

the economy are a dip in consumer

confidence or higher energy prices.

Consumer confidence has continued

its fragile recovery, but a major

pullback in the possibly overheated

stock market would again have

potentially major impacts on house-

hold balance sheets. This could work

its way through the economic system,

resulting in declining consumption

and falling GDP.

The international outlook is also

a risk, particularly in terms of a

potential energy problem and

accompanying higher gasoline prices.

Middle East turmoil could become a

threat to the economy, particularly if

curtailed shipments from Iraq caused

oil prices to increase. Decreased

consumer demand due to spending

on energy might limit economic

growth. Iraq accounts for approxi-

mately 1.7 percent of global crude

consumption. An interruption of

Iraqi oil would raise prices and create

heightened uncertainty in financial

markets, possibly depressing the

U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK / Actual and Forecasted 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 ANNUAL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2012 2013 2014 2015

HISTORY FORECAST* HISTORY FORECAST*

GDP g r (%) 1 1 2 5 4 1 2 4 2 8 3 0 3 0 2 9 2 9 2 8 1 9 2 4 2 9Non-farm Payroll Employment, g r (%) 1 9 1 7 1 6 1 8 1 7 1 5 1 6 1 8 1 9 1 7 1 7 1 6 1 8Consumer Prices, g r (%) 1 2 0 4 2 2 1 1 2 8 3 0 3 0 3 4 3 5 2 1 1 4 2 5 3 5Unemployment Rate (%) 7 7 7 5 7 2 7 0 6 3 6 2 6 2 6 1 6 0 8 1 7 4 6 4 6 030-Year Government 3 0 3 1 3 7 3 7 3 4 3 6 3 9 4 3 4 6 2 9 3 4 3 7 4 7 Bond Yield (%)30-Year Fixed 3 5 3 7 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 5 4 8 5 1 5 4 3 7 4 0 4 5 5 5 Mortgage Rate (%)Consumer Confidence 63 75 81 74 83 84 84 85 87 67 73 83 87 (1985=100)

*Forecast as of March 2014

Source: National Association of Realtors©




values of various assets. The short

term impact could be substantial,

probably wiping out GDP growth.

Longer term, energy markets could

adapt to the loss of product.

Longer term, the major risks appear

to be associated with household

formation and job creation. House-

hold formation has been relatively

slow in recent years. The major

drivers of residential and commer-

cial real estate demand in the long

run are household formation and

job creation. Both have been slower

than expected. Explanations for slow

household formation include the

state of the economy, changing social

mores, a slow job market, and rising

levels of consumer debt. Explana-

tions for slow job creation include

the impacts of the Great Recession

as well as technological change and

major realignments in the economy.

Both household formation and job

creation appear likely to be picking

up in the foreseeable future.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

For the next year, the economy

appears to be in a slow growth

mode—an economy expanding

at slower than expected rates. The

economic outlook is favorable for

supporting at least the current level

of commercial sales and rentals; in

addition, based on cutbacks during

the Great Recession there appears to

be a level of pent-up demand, so on

balance the outlook for commercial

real estate is positive.

The positive factors associated with

the economic outlook include rising

home prices, easing credit terms,

reasonable energy prices, recovery

from global economic slowdowns,

recovering consumer balance sheets,

and the potential for additional

household formation. Uncertain-

ties with the international situation

(energy, recessions, and political

instability) coupled with lingering

consumer confidence issues are the

negatives. On balance, the economic

forecast is positive and, to the degree

there is uncertainty and risk, the

outcomes are probably more towards

the upside than the downside. In

short, the economic environment is

moderately favorable for commercial

real estate.

Vacancy Rate34%

ECONOMIC RATE

REGIONAL Average 3 8 NATIONAL Average 3 2


0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

ECONOMIC CLIMATE BY REGION CANADA EAST MIDWEST OTHER SOUTH WEST & MEXICOThe regional economic climate is booming – 2 9% 3 6% 20 8% 32 9% 25 4%The regional economic climate is level – 11 8 21 4 8 3 8 2 5 1The regional economic climate is moderately positive 40 0 70 6 60 7 58 3 56 5 50 8The regional economic climate is stagnant – 2 9 3 6 – 1 2 –The regional economic climate is weak – 11 8 10 7 12 5 1 2 18 6




U.S. Metropolitan ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Phoenix AZ B 78 13 -15% -3% 6 2% 2 2% 16%

Tucson AZ D 62 50 -15% -3% 6 4% 0 7% -5%

Los Angeles CA C 68 75 -27% 4% 7 8% 2 1% 0%

San Bernardino/Riverside CA B 75 00 -27% 4% 9 2% 2 4% 57%

Sacramento CA C 71 88 -27% 4% 7 6% 2 7% 49%

San Diego CA C 71 88 -27% 4% 6 7% 2 2% 29%

San Francisco CA B 75 00 -27% 4% 5 7% 2 2% -3%

San Jose CA B 78 13 -27% 4% 5 9% 4 0% 18%

Colorado Springs CO B 84 38 -15% -7% 7 4% 1 3% 7%

Denver CO A 87 50 -15% -7% 5 8% 2 8% 15%

Hartford CT C 71 88 -8% -8% 7 1% 0 7% -15% Washington DC C 71 88 -1% 6% 4 8% 0 2% 7%

Jacksonville FL D 62 50 -6% -6% 6 1% 3 3% -6%

Miami FL B 75 00 -6% -6% 6 4% 3 2% 29%

Orlando FL B 75 00 -6% -6% 5 9% 4 5% 3%

Tampa-St Petersburg FL D 62 50 -6% -6% 6 5% 2 6% -10%

Atlanta GA C 65 63 -9% -11% 6 9% 2 0% 44%

Chicago IL C 68 75 -7% -7% 7 7% 0 7% 43% Indianapolis IN B 78 13 -7% -15% 5 3% 2 0% 44%

Lexington KY C 68 75 -6% -10% 6 6% 0 2% 38%

Louisville KY C 71 88 -6% -10% 7 1% 0 8% 17%

New Orleans LA B 75 00 -1% -22% 4 7% 1 3% -1%

Boston MA B 84 38 -22% -12% 5 5% 1 2% 34%

LEADING INDICATOR INDEXCITY STATE SCORE LEADING BANKRUPTCY UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT TOTAL INDICATOR FILINGS CLAIMS RATE as of 2014 (APR 2014 vs PERMITS (2014 vs 2013)* (2014 vs 2013)** APR 2013)** (2014 vs 2013)**

*April 2013 through March 2014 vs. April 2012 through March 2013

**May 2013 through April 2014 vs May 2012 through April 2013

The leading market index uses an array of factors to assess the relative health of an individual market. The factors include job creation, unemployment claims, bankruptcy filings, and permits for construction. The first two factors provide an indication of potential business expansion/contraction as well as of labor market health and a leading

indicator of multifamily rental growth. Bankruptcy filings allude to the health of the business environment, while the permits data point to business plans and have an indirect impact on inventories.

The leading indicator is weighted based on both the current measure

as well as its recent trend or lagged measures. These weighted measures are then added to create a score. This score is then ranked relative to a fixed scale where a measure of 85 or better indicates a robust market, 75 to 85 a strong market, 65 to 75 an average market, and a score below 65 coincides with a weak market.



Baltimore MD B 75 00 -3% -10% 5 9% 1 8% 2%

Detroit MI C 65 63 -14% -8% 8 1% -0 3% 19%

Minneapolis MN B 78 13 -14% -6% 4 5% 1 6% 1%

St Louis MO C 71 88 -16% -1% 7 3% 0 7% 0%

Kansas City MO C 65 63 -16% -1% 6 3% 0 6% 4%

Greensboro/Winston-Salem NC B 78 13 -13% -45% 6 7% 0 3% 31%

Raleigh-Durham NC B 84 38 -13% -45% 5 1% 4 1% -12%

Charlotte NC B 78 13 -13% -45% 6 3% 2 0% 8%

Omaha NE B 81 25 -11% -13% 4 1% 1 7% -2% Albuquerque NM D 62 50 -9% -13% 7 2% -1 2% 9%

Las Vegas NV B 84 38 -20% -16% 8 5% 3 0% 13%

Buffalo NY B 75 00 -10% -11% 6 3% 0 7% 52%

New York NY C 71 88 -10% -11% 7 0% 1 1% 53%

Cleveland OH C 68 75 -4% -16% 7 0% 0 6% 18%

Columbus OH B 78 13 -4% -16% 4 8% 0 9% -2%

Cincinnati OH B 84 38 -4% -16% 5 5% 1 7% 24%

Oklahoma City OK B 75 00 -10% -14% 4 7% 2 8% 12%

Tulsa OK B 75 00 -10% -14% 5 0% 1 7% -2%

Portland OR C 71 88 -7% -11% 6 3% 2 8% 3%

Pittsburgh PA C 71 88 -6% -7% 5 6% 0 5% 21%

Philadelphia PA C 71 88 -6% -7% 6 3% 0 5% 24%

Providence RI B 81 25 -11% -11% 8 5% 1 0% 14%

Charleston SC B 81 25 -3% -13% 4 7% 1 4% 7%

Columbia SC B 81 25 -3% -13% 5 0% 1 7% -1%

Greenville SC B 78 13 -3% -13% 4 5% 2 6% 41%

Knoxville TN C 71 88 -5% -11% 5 4% 2 0% 19%

Nashville TN B 75 00 -5% -11% 5 0% 3 1% 48%

Chattanooga TN D 62 50 -5% -11% 6 3% 0 8% 50%

Memphis TN D 56 25 -5% -11% 7 8% 0 2% -2%

Austin TX A 87 50 -13% -4% 4 3% 3 5% -4%

Dallas TX A 87 50 -13% -4% 5 3% 3 8% 20%

Houston TX A 90 63 -13% -4% 5 2% 3 1% 12%

San Antonio TX A 96 88 -13% -4% 5 0% 2 2% 9%







Salt Lake City UT B 84 38 -8% -11% 3 8% 1 4% 44%

Richmond VA B 81 25 -8% -11% 5 4% 1 7% 1%

Seattle WA A 87 50 -12% -7% 5 0% 2 9% 10%

Milwaukee WI B 75 00 -9% -12% 6 3% 1 5% 24%

Birmingham AL C 68 75 -5% -12% 6 1% 1 0% 15%

Little Rock AR C 65 63 -5% -10% 6 1% 0 7% -23%

New Haven CT B 75 00 -8% -8% 7 3% 1 3% 11%

Wichita KS B 78 13 -5% -9% 5 8% 0 6% 11%

Rochester NY B 75 00 -10% -11% 6 1% 0 3% -8%

Syracuse NY C 65 63 -10% -11% 6 4% -0 3% -1%

Dayton OH C 68 75 -4% -16% 5 8% 0 3% -22%

Ventura County CA B 78 13 -27% 4% 7 0% 2 0% 8%

Westchester NY B 75 00 -10% -11% 4 6% -0 3% -17%

Norfolk/Hampton Roads VA B 75 00 -8% -11% 5 5% -0 3% 2%

Tacoma WA C 71 88 -12% -7% 6 9% 0 3% 10%

Orange County CA C 65 63 -27% 4% 5 0% -0 3% 67%

Palm Beach FL C 71 88 -6% -6% 6 4% 2 8% 5%

Fairfield County CT B 78 13 -8% -8% 6 0% 0 7% 17%

Fort Lauderdale FL B 78 13 -6% -6% 5 5% 3 3% 29%

Fort Worth TX A 87 50 -13% -4% 5 2% 2 9% 20%

Long Island NY B 78 13 -10% -11% 5 2% 0 8% 53%

Northern New Jersey NJ C 71 88 -4% -18% 6 9% 0 5% 37%

Oakland-East Bay CA C 71 88 -27% 4% 6 5% 1 6% -3%

Suburban Maryland MD B 78 13 -3% -10% 4 4% 0 3% 7%

Suburban Virginia VA B 84 38 -8% -11% 3 6% 0 1% 7%

Durham NC A 93 75 -13% -45% 5 0% 1 5% 23%

Raleigh-Cary NC B 84 38 -13% -45% 5 1% 4 1% -12%

Central New Jersey NJ B 78 13 -4% -18% 5 8% 0 5% 33%







SPONSORS

CCIM INSTITUTE

Since 1969, the Chicago-based CCIM Institute has conferred the Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) designation to commercial real estate and allied professionals through an extensive curriculum of 160 classroom hours and professional experiential requirements. Currently, there are 9,000 CCIMs in 1,000 markets in the U.S. and 31 countries worldwide. Another 3,000 practitioners are pursuing the designation, making the Institute one of the largest commercial real estate networks in the world. An affiliate of the National Association of REALTORS®, the CCIM Institute’s recognized curriculum, networking programs, and the powerful technology tool, Site To Do Busi-ness (site analysis and demographics resource), positively impact and influence the commercial real estate industry.

Visit www.ccim.com for more information.

CCIM INSTITUTE 2014 EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

The Mission of the National Association of REALTORS® Research Division is to collect and disseminate timely, accu-rate and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct economic analysis in order to inform and engage members, consumers, and policy makers and the media in a professional and accessible manner.

The Research Division monitors and analyzes economic indicators, including gross domestic product, retail sales, industrial production, producer price index, and employment data that impact commercial markets over time. Additionally, NAR Research examines how changes in the economy affect the commercial real estate business, and evaluates regulatory and legislative policy proposals for their impact on REALTORS,® their clients and America’s property owners.

The Research Division provides several products covering commercial real estate including:

l Commercial Real Estate Outlook l Commercial Real Estate Quarterly Market Survey l Commercial Real Estate Lending Survey l Commercial Member Profile

To find out about other products from NAR’s Research Division, visit www.realtor.org/research-and-statistics.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® RESEARCH DIVISION

©2014 The CCIM Institute and National Association of REALTORS.® All rights reserved.

B.K. Allen, CCIM Interim Executive Vice President/CEO [email protected]

Karl Landreneau, CCIM President

Mark Macek, CCIM President-Elect

Steven W. Moreira, CCIM First Vice President

Craig Blorstad, CCIM Treasurer

CCIM Institute 430 North Michigan Ave., Suite 800 Chicago, IL 60611 312-321-4460 www.ccim.com

Lawrence Yun, PhD Sr. Vice President, Chief Economist [email protected]

George Ratiu Director, Quantitative & Commercial Research [email protected]

Ken Fears Director, Regional Economics & Housing Finance Policy [email protected]

National Association of REALTORS® 500 New Jersey Ave. N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 800-874-6500 www.realtors.org



CONTRIBUTORS

David Ellermann Ellermann Brokerage Chicago IL

Jason Bantel Lee & Associates Central Florida, LLC Orlando FL

Diane Baer Yecko Capital Realty Group Pittsburgh PA

Gary Hunter Westlake Associates, Inc Seattle WA

Maire Herron CIC Jackson WY

Lydia Bennett CRE West Coast LLC Bellingham WA

Nancy Fish Park Place Real Estate Kalamazoo MI

Stephen Jacquemin S J Financial Group St Louis MO

Terry Phillips The Phillips Group, Inc Vancouver WA

Ryan Haedrich Haedrich & Co , Inc Redding CA

Dolf deVos IPMG, Inc Corvallis OR

Dan Naylor Mericle Commercial Real Estate Wilkes-Barre PA

Lloyd Miller Morris Realty Group Memphis TN

Robert Resneder US Trust Dallas TX

Lee Ehlers Investors Realty, Inc Omaha NE

Jody Elder Cushman & Wakefield Cornerstone Nashville TN

Gary Best KW Commercial Division Tucson AZ

Lauren Nasser Arthur Kowitz Realty Daytona Beach FL

James J Katon Integra Realty Resources Charlotte NC

John McLaughlin McLaughlin Investments, Inc Boston MA

Mike Stuhlmiller Stuhlmiller Realty Hayden ID

Gary Tang Hannah Investment, Inc Albany CA

Sheng-Hong Eric Wang Yuanta Asset Mgt Taipei

Linda Sorkin Aukamp Brokerage & Consulting Matthews NC

Steve Johnson Red Sky Partners LLC Brookfield WI

Ian Levin Nathan Levin Co Salem OR

Tom Davies Norris & Stevens Portland OR

James Gerdts SquareHat Real Estate Raleigh NC

Steve Caton Caton Commercial Real Estate Group Plainfield IL

William Shopoff The Shopoff Group Irvine CA

John Schutzius Industrial Commercial Realty and Investment Corp Aurora IL

Gina Dingman Annette Xollier Able Real Estate Philadelphia PA

Alan Doak Colliers International Ottawa OH

Jim Kasten Kasten Long Commercial Group Phoenix AZ

Garry Adams Capital Realty, Inc Sherman Oaks CA

Reuben Trinidad Hoff & Leigh - Colorado Springs Colorado Springs CO

Rob Burlingame CBRE San Antonio TX

Michel Hibbert Charles Dunn Company Los Angeles CA

Tyler Smith PRG Investments Louisville KY

David Luebke Hendricks Commercial Properties Beloit WI

Shannon Mar Guarantee Real Estate Fresno CA

Steven Caravelli Coldwell Banker Commercial San Francisco CA

Anthony Strauss Colliers Minneapolis MN

Jeff Sage Realty Development Aspen CO

J R Fulton J R Fulton & Associates Oklahoma City OK

Brian Resendez Sperry Van Ness Portland OR

Simeon Spirrison Adelphia Properties Oak Brook IL

Peter A Frandano Southport Realty Southport NC

Trent Grothues Pollan Hausman Real Estate Services, LLC Houston TX

Edward T Herbert HCR Associates Realtors Nashville TN

Eric Duxstad Frost Bank San Antonio TX

Rick Colon Cassidy Turley Tampa FL

Gary Lee Jones Lang LaSalle Atlanta GA

Alan Stamm century 21 consolidated Las Vegas NV

Marguerite Haverly CBRE Albuquerque NM

Arch Jeffery De Rito Partners, Inc Phoenix AZ

David Aikens KW Commercial Louisville KY

Jennifer Gray Jennifer Gray Commercial Realty Southlake TX

Mike Carroll Sealy Realty Co , Inc Tuscaloosa AL

Frank Leatherman, MAI Leatherman Real Estate Services Raleigh NC

Cyril Crocker Keller Williams Washington DC

Sammie Kessner US National Commercial Real Esate Services Las Vegas NV

Trent Frankum Tan, Frankum & Associates Manila

James Milner James R Milner III Boone NC

Dan Mincher The Vollman Company, Inc Sacramento CA

Rick Padelford Realty Executives Commercial Tempe AZ

Jeff Eales Birtcher Anderson Realty San Juan Capistrano CA

Eugene Heathman Garland Realty R , LLC Ruidoso NM

Brad Welborn Colonial Square Realty, Inc Fort Myers FL

Bruce Johnson Block Real Estate Services, LLC Kansas City MO

Cal Northam Prudential Floberg Realtors Billings MT

Nicole Willoughby Associated Bank Milwaukee WI

Paul Mader MTC Commercial RE Castro Valley CA

David Staruch CCIM GRI Century 21 Jim White & Associates Treasure Island FL

Shahid K Abdulla PlainsCapital Bank San Antonio TX

Grant Ackerly R P Hubbell and Company, Inc Poughkeepsie NY

Lucio Cantu RE/MAX Commercial San Antonio TX

Jim Purgerson Citizens Bank & Trust Baton Rouge LA

John Lutz Lutz Commercial Realty Union NJ

Brian Sorrentino ROI Commercial Real Estate, Inc Las Vegas NV

Joe Milkes Milkes Realty Valuation Plano TX

Todd Balsiger JLL Minneapolis MN

Anthony Ricco Sperry Van Ness/ Bluestone & Hockley Portland OR

John Levinsohn Levi Investment Realty, inc Indianapolis IN

Ira Korn Coldwell Banker Commercial Meridian Rochester NY

Laurens Nicholson Lee & Associates Greenville SC

John Capes KW Commercial Realty Augusta GA

Mike Milovick Royal LePage Grand Valley Realty Kitchener

Robert Powell Powell Realty Advisors, LLC Dallas TX

David Schnitzer Venture Commercial Dallas TX

Karen Johnson NAI MLG Commercial Milwaukee WI

Kenneth Kujawa Century 21 Signature Realty Saginaw MI

Beverly Keith Trinity Partners Raleigh NC

Rocket Glass Inland Pacific Commercial Properties San Diego CA



CONTRIBUTORS

Tom Baker KW Commercial Eagan MN

Joe R Romero Cauwels & Stuve Realty and Devel-opment Advisors LLC Albuquerque NM

Peter Aburrow Encore Real Estate Dallas TX

Rhonda Reap-Curiel Coldwell Banker Reap Realty Alexandria LA

Lizby Eustis Keller Williams Realty Mandeville LA

Patrick Bell Dunes Properties Charleston SC

Vikki Keyser Keller Williams Commercial Sarasota FL

Gary Maitha Upland Group, Inc Tempe AZ

James Kaiser Heartland Properties, Inc Council Bluffs IA

D Robb Encon Commercial Santa Fe Springs CA

Katy Welsh Hunter Real Estate West Palm Beach FL

Bruce Bauer Bauer Appraisal Group, Inc Albany NY

Lyman Whitlatch The Whitlatch Group Visalia CA

Jay Verro NAI Platform Albany NY

Michael Shaffer Skogman Commercial Cedar Rapids IA

Lisa Campbell Coldwell Banker Morris Bend OR

David Kearney Remax Sabre Realy Port Coquitlam

April Thompson Healthcare REIT Jupiter FL

Eric Rehn Kennedy Wilson Brokerage Group Walnut Creek CA

Brad Alton NAI Commercial Edmonton

Peter Kravaritis IHDA Chicago IL

John Cohoat Browning Investments Indianapolis IN

Brian Spring NAI Spring Canton OH

Edward Miller Colliers International Tampa FL

Rick Ikeler SRS Real Estate Partners Dallas TX

Roger Cobb Selwyn Property Group Charlotte NC

John John REMAX Boone Realty Columbia MO

David Auel Avison Young Pittsburgh PA

Don Sebastian Coldwell Banker Commercial McMahan Co Lexington KY

Matt Boehlke Regus Maple Grove MN

Michael McNally Pacific Commercial Management San Diego CA

Matt Carter Joyner Commercial, The Commercial Division of Berkshire Hathaway C

Dan Joyner REALTORS Greenville SC

Todd Hamilton Cutler Commercial Scottsdale AZ

Scot E Hall Wolf Realty Inc Glendale AZ

Lyle Gilbertson Cassidy Turley St Louis MO

Dave Winder Cushman & Wakefield Commerce Boise ID

Kenneth Crimmins Blau and Berg Short Hills NJ

Mike Eurchuk Realty Executives Meridian Edmonton

Thomas Knaub Colliers International Phoenix AZ

Jeff Wilke Graham & Company Huntsville AL

Todd Gannet Equitable Metropolitan West Orange NJ

Todd Mitchell Columbia Property Trust Atlanta GA

Rick Gonzalez Crosby + Associates, Inc Tavares FL

Andrew Joyner The Simpson Company Gainesville GA

Jerry Fiume NAI Cummins Real Estate Akron OH

Michael Merker NAI Park Capital Guelph

Asok Agarwal Re/Max Commercial Glendale CA

John Floyd Crye-Leike Commercial Property Management Brentwood TN

Bill Crawford Crawford Associates Greenville SC

Nick Miner ORION Investment Real Estate Scottsdale AZ

Eric Higgins Colliers International Birmingham AL

Marc Veras RE Commercial LLC Appleton WI

Helen Jobes Kennedy Wilson Austin TX

George Spirrison Adelphia Properties Oak Brook IL

Julie Teague Hull Storey Gibson Augusta GA

David R Dunn Sperry Van Ness/ Dunn Commercial Arlington TX

Chad Heer RE/MAX Results Commercial Saint Paul MN

Reagan Schwarzlose JP Morgan Chase Dallas TX

Todd Clarke NM Apartment Advisors Albuquerque NM

Allen Gump Colliers International Dallas TX

Paul Lynn Paul A Lynn & Associates, LLC Houston TX

Shannon Mar Guarantee Real Estate Fresno CA

Hal Alpert Alpert Commercial Real Estate Vacaville CA

Timothy L Skinner Keaty Real Estate Lafayette LA

John Orr Colliers International Charleston SC

George Barnett Century 21 Foote-Ryan Plattsburgh NY

Tom Corbett First Venture Properties, LLC Wilson NC

Soozi Jones Walker Commercial Executives Las Vegas NV

John Capes KW Commercial VIP Group, LLC Augusta GA

T J Woosley Hal Woosley Properties, Inc Bellevue WA

Tim Mills CBRE San Diego CA

Lily Seymour Gershman Commercial Real Estate St Louis MO

Joanne Birtz Lifro Ltd Medicine Hat

Paul Kenny Paul Kenny & Matt Bogue Commer-cial Real Estate Sun Valley ID

Dalerie Wu STC Management Whittier CA

Lee Farris Farrmont Realty Group, Inc Phoenix AZ

Jeffrey Stanton MC Management Bellaire TX

Arielle Dorman Kidder Mathews Bellevue WA

Michael Armanious KW Commercial Tacoma WA

Samuel Ivey GHI Ventures, LLC Marietta GA

Brian Wolford Paradigm Tax Group Houston TX

Baltazar Cantu Colliers International Monterrey TX

Olga Hallstedt Results! Commercial Real Estate Grand Rapids MI

Wayne Shulman Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Chicago IL

Corey Schneider Passaic NJ

David Wieder CPI San Antonio TX

James Mangas Best Corpoarate Real Estate Upper Arlngton OH

Craig Evans Cassidy Turley New York NY

David Victorio Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT Manfield TX

Ted Taylor Grandbridge Real Estate Capita Miami FL

Chris Jacobson CBRE Minneapolis MN

Mike Wells Wells Asset Management Inc Dallas TX

Travis Newton Florida Blue (BCBS) Jacksonville FL

Todd Hamilton Cutler Commercial Scottsdale AZ

Rick Egitto Inverness Properties Englewood CO

Nancy Fish Park Place Real Estate Kalamazoo MI


Quarterly Market Trends 2Q • 14

CONTRIBUTORS

Mark Thiessen RE/MAX Professionals Winnipeg ND

Bruce Johnson Block Real Estate Services Kansas City MO

Brent McLean Eugene Industrial Real Estate, LLC Eugene OR

Rich Musgrove Hotel Asset Value Enhancement Walnut Creek CA

Giancarlo Da Prato IDI- Industrial Developments International El Paso TX

Todd Younghans Coldwell Banker Commercial Georgetown

Ken Krawczyk K S K Services Inc Pewaukee WI

Scot E Hall Wolf Realty Inc Glendale AZ

Linda Larabee TriStone Realty Management, LLC Houston TX

Douglas Page SVN high Desert Commercial Idaho Falls ID

Lon Lundberg Mark Bottles Real Estate Services Eagle ID

Gregg Waller Long and Foster Vienna VA

Peter Rasmusson Lee & Associates Elmwood Park NJ

Brandon Saylor Colliers International Albuquerque NM

Bill Whitlatch The Whitlatch Group Visalia CA

Kelly Keesee RE/MAX Lubbock Lubbock TX

Todd LaPlante Five Points Commercial Real Estate, Inc Huntington Beach CA

Dale DeBoer DeBoer Commercial Real Estate Modesto CA

Thomas Pollom Cassidy Turley Indianapolis IN

Dewey Struble Dewey Struble CCIM Reno NV

Eric Rehn Kennedy Wilson Brokerage Group Walnut Creek CA

Erik Schwetje EWS Advisors Winter Park FL

Doug Prickett Lionstone Investments Houston TX

C J Webb Grandbridge Real Estate Capital Charlotte NC

Sean KL Jackson Keller Williams Tri-Valley Realty Livermore CA

Benjamin Bach Cushman & Wakefield Waterloo Region Kitchener-Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

H Winston Hines HWH Properties Chesnee SC

Forrest Gibson PRG Developments Inc Jacksonville FL

Max Finkle ReMax Renaissance Realtors Chattanooga TN

Salvatore Vitale RE Commercial Appleton WI

Keith Thomas RE/MAX Parkside Olympia WA

Karen Higgins WestMark Realtors Lubbock TX

Patty Burns Fickling & Company Macon GA

Steve Massell Lee and Associates Atlanta GA

Scott Babcock CBSHOME Commercial Omaha NE

Tim Miller Close~Converse Inc Baxter MN

Gerard R C Pastrano Sperry Van Ness/ The Pastrano Grp San Antonio TX

Michael Johsz AT&T Tustin CA

Bill Ginder Caldwell Companies Houston TX

Kane Morris-Webster Colliers International Orlando FL

Bob White Adams Commercial Real Estate Decatur GA

Colin Khan Commercial Property Realty Ann Arbor MI

Simon Asef DMC Real Estate North Hollywood CA

Dan Dowd Cole Taylor Bank Chicago IL

Daphne Zollinger Daphne Real Estate Denton TX

Peter Kordonowy Summerhill Commercial Real Estate, LLC Chanhassen MN

Mike Mausteller Harvey Lindssay Commercial Real Estate Newport News VA

Joel Miller Sperry Van Ness Geneva IL

Jack Williams Colliers International Southfield MI

Palmer Bayless Emerge Real Estate Services Roswell GA

Jack Strollo Broadway Brokerage, LLC Lakeland FL

Kara Rafferty Jones Lang LaSalle Dallas TX

Danny Morales Hartman Income REIT Houston TX

Brian D Harris REOC San Antonio San Antonio TX

Hunter Swearingen Ciminelli Real Estate Services Tampa FL

Michael Manning Main Place Liberty Group Buffalo NY

Russell Hur BBG Austin TX

Stephanie Chang NAI Maestas & Ward Albuqeurque NM

Greg J Hrabcak HER Commercial Columbus OH

Philip Corriher The Chambers Group Charlotte NC

Wes Schollenberg Avison Young Winnipeg

Ethan Horn Ryan, LLC Denver CO

Bill Puddephatt First Service Bank Little Rock AR



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