ccs – a global perspective - ukccsrc · myles r. allen, david j. frame & charles f. mason,...
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The UKCCSRC is supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council as part of the Research Councils UK
Energy Programme
CCS Showcase – Supply Chain Perspective12 May 2014, EIC Conference Suite, London
CCS – A Global Perspective
Jon GibbinsDirector, UK CCS Research CentreProfessor of Power Plant Engineering and Carbon CaptureUniversity of [email protected]
About the UKCCSRCThe UK Carbon Capture and Storage Research Centre (UKCCSRC) leads and
coordinates a programme of underpinning research on all aspects of carbon capture and storage
(CCS) in support of basic science and UK government
efforts on energy and climate change.
The Centre brings together nearly 200 of the UK’s world‐class CCS academics and provides a national focal point for CCS research and development.
Initial core funding for the UKCCSRC is provided by £10M from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) as part of the
RCUK Energy Programme. This is complemented by £3M in additional funding from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) to help establish
new open‐access national pilot‐scale facilities (www.pact.ac.uk). Partner institutions have contributed £2.5M.
www.ukccsrc.ac.uk
Associate Membership information:
https://ukccsrc.ac.uk/membership/associate‐membership
What do we need to achieve?
What is the apparent global market?
How could the global market develop?
Fraction of C stored must rise from zero to 100%
Myles R. Allen, David J. Frame & Charles F. Mason, The case for mandatory sequestration,
Nature Geoscience 2, 813 - 814 (2009), doi:10.1038/ngeo709
500 600 700 800 900 1000Emissions (billion tonnes of C)
Frac
tion
of fo
ssil
fuel
em
issi
ons
capt
ured
and
sto
red
The prime climate objective is not to end the use of fossil fuels.The prime objective is to develop and deploy 100% CCS in time to cap cumulative emissions of carbon at a safe level.
CO2 EOR and other applications with partial overall capture should be seen as a stage in a path from zero CO2 capture to 100% CCS.They can be a move in the right direction from where we are now – emitting 100% of fossil carbon to atmosphere.The key factor is the extent to which technologies and/or projects can readily be adapted to get higher fractions of CO2 stored.
What do we need to achieve?
Boundary Dam 3Post-com
Kemper CountyIGCC
Bow City AB. New 500MW PC + Post-com
FutureGen 2Oxyfuel
Texas Clean Energy Project IGCC
HECAIGCC
QuintanaIGCC
NRG ParishPost-com
Sinopec ShengliCFBC+ Post-com
Lianyungang IGCC
Huaneng GreenGenIGCC
Emirates AluminiumPost-com
C.GEN North Killingholme IGCC
Captain Clean Energy IGCC
Datang Daqing Post-com
Don Valley IGCC
White Rose Oxyfuel
Peterhead Post-com
ROADPost-com
Dongguan IGCCTaiyangzhou
Korea-CCS 1Post-com
Korea-CCS 2Oxy/IGCC or
Queensland IGCCTeesside
IGCC
GCCSI compilation of expected project start dates, with assumed power generation project names added
FID taken
IGCC 11-12Post-com 9Oxyfuel 2-3Storage 12EOR 11Onshore 16?Offshore 7?
But to interpret the project mix in the GCCSI database it is necessary
to look at CCS ‘history’.
Some projects were originally conceived under quite different
market conditions from now.
CCS Implementation Proposals – UK
Company/ Project Name Fuel Plant
output/costCapture technology Start
Progressive
Energy/Centrica, Teeside,
UK
Coal (petcoke) 800 MW (+ H2
to grid)
($1.5bn)
IGCC + shift + precombustion 2009
BP/SSE DF1,
Peterhead/Miller, ScotlandNatural gas 475 MW,
(>$600M)Autothermal
reformer +
precombustion2010
Powerfuel/Kuzbassrazrezugol
Hatfield
Colliery, UK
Coal ~900 MW IGCC + shift + precombustion 2010
Conoco‐Phillips,
Immingham, UKCoal(+petcoke?)
450 MW (or
more, with
retrofit)
IGCC+CCS addition to planned
NGCC CHP plant2010(for
CHP)
E.ON, Killingholme, Lincolnshire coast, UK
Coal(+petcoke?)
450 MW(£1bn)
IGCC + shift + precombustion?(may be capture ready)
2011
RWE, Tilbury, UK Coal ~500 MW(£800m)
PC (supercritical retrofit) + post‐
combustion (may be capture
ready)
2016
• Proposed
full‐scale (~300 MWe and above) CCS projects
• Based on media reports, press releases and personal communication so indicative only!
• Plus capture‐ready plants at Ferrybridge (SSE) and Kingsnorth
(E.On)
In hindsight CURRENT GCCSI LSIP / CURRENT BUT CHANGED
From presentation made
8 YEARS AGO
CCS Implementation Proposals – World (not UK)
Company/ Project Name Fuel Plant
output/costCapture technology Start
Statoil/Dong, Mongstad, Norway
Natural gas 280 MW NGCC+ Post‐combustion amine
100,000 tCO2/yr from 2010,
1.3Mt CO2
from 2014, CO2
for EOR
(Gullfaks
and others)
2010
BP DF2, Carson, USA
Petcoke 500 MW,
($1bn)IGCC + shift + precombustion, CO2
for EOR
2011
Statoil/Shell,
Tjeldbergodden, NorwayNatural gas 860 MW NGCC+ Post‐combustion amine,
CO2
for EOR (Draugen)2011
SaskPower, Saskatchewan,Canada
Lignite coal 300 MW PC oxyfuel 2011
Stanwell, Queensland,
AustraliaCoal 275 MW IGCC + shift + precombustion 2012
Futuregen, USA Coal 275 MW IGCC + shift + precombustion 2012
Xcel Colorado, USA. Coal (sub.bit) 300‐350MW IGCC, may be partial capture only 2013
RWE, GermanyGermany
Coal 450 MW(Є1bn)
IGCC + shift + precombustion 2014
• Proposed
full‐scale (~300 MWe and above) CCS projects
• Based on media reports, press releases and personal communication so indicative only! In hindsight CURRENT GCCSI LSIP / CURRENT BUT CHANGED
From presentation made
8 YEARS AGO
From presentation made
8 YEARS AGO
CCS Proposals – UK – Before The Competition
Project Fuel Plant output Capture technology
BP/SSE DF1,
Peterhead/Miller, ScotlandNatural gas 475 MW,
(>$600M)Autothermal
reformer + precombustion
Progressive Energy/Centrica, Teeside
Coal (petcoke)
800 MW IGCC + shift + precombustion
Powerfuel/ Hatfield Colliery Coal ~900 MW IGCC + shift + precombustionShell gasifier
Conoco‐Phillips, Immingham Coal(+petcoke?)
450 MW (or
more)
IGCC+CCS addition to planned NGCC CHP plant
E.ON, Killingholme, Lincolnshire coast
Coal(+petcoke?)
450 MW IGCC + shift + precombustion
RWE, Tilbury Coal 2 x 800 MW PC, CR, new supercritical, post‐com
SSE, Ferrybridge Coal 1 or 2 x 500MW PC, CR, new supercritical
E.ON, Kingsnorth Coal 2 x 800MW PC, CR, new supercritical, post‐com
RWE, Blyth Coal 3 x 800MW PC, CR, new supercritica, post‐com
Scottish Power, Longannet Coal ~ 2400 MW PC, CR, supercritical ( retrofit?)
SP Cockenzie Coal ~ 1200 MW PC, CR, supercritical (retrofit?)
Severn Pwr, Uskmouth Natural gas 800MW GTCC permitted as CR
E.ON, Drakelow Natural gas 1220MW GTCC permitted as CR
Proposed
full‐scale (~300 MWe and above) CCS projects ‐
indicative only
~10 GWof
newPC
plantplanned
Already 2GWmore gas coming
In hindsight CURRENT GCCSI LSIP / CURRENT BUT CHANGED / FEED BUT NO FID
From presentation made
6 YEARS AGO
6 August, 2008Climate Camp at Kingsnorth
Power StationA CCS Competition to demonstrate
post-combustion capture for the planned UK supercritical coal fleet was a necessary response at the
time, but the proposals for new coal were overtaken by the economic downturn and no new coal power
plants, required to support the capture demonstrations, were built.
What is the apparent global market?• GCCSI: 50% IGCC, 40% Post-com, 10-15% oxyfuel to 2020• Mainly coal, reflecting a previous emphasis• Many GCCSI database projects date back 8+ years
How could the global market develop?1. EOR in North America (and Middle East?)• Canada and Mexico as well as USA• Cheap gas but CCS on gas still needs support for EOR• Time needed to get beyond ‘gas good / coal bad ‘ dogma• USA - Proposed gas-level EPS has delayed most CCS• Canada – Power EPS + plant life limit = constrained options• Canada - Oil sands gas for steam generation • Mexico - Gas for new power, EOR driver plus climate law• Middle East – Will depend on results from new projects?
How could the global market develop?2. Coal with CCS for developing countries• World Bank and ADB have stopped funding new coal plants• Obvious market, but will need OPEX as well as CAPEX support• Co-benefits from better pollutant control• But must be cheaper then equivalent energy services from
renewables
3. China?• Sophisticated market with capacity for indigenous supply• With potentially aggressive export drive - cooperate or compete?• Large-scale indigenous deployment depends on China’s
satisfaction with global climate deal and actual EOR prospects
4. Europe• Keeping coal likely to be a new priority for energy security• But will this translate in action on CCS - and by when?• European CCS projects could be a big driver for Markets 1-3
FIRST TRANCHE
Demonstration
SECOND TRANCHE
Commercial &Regulatory Drivers
Overall effort also important to maintain continuity GLOBAL
CCS ROLLOUT
Big prize is getting two learning cycles
from two tranches of CCS projects before
global rollout
EUCCS
ROLLOUTIGCC/OXYFUELNEW BUILD/REBUILDPLANTS PATHTO ROLLOUT
2015 2020 2025
12 plants by 2015 in EU
Earliest demo plants?Last plants in first tranche
First plants in second trancheLater plant in second tranche
First lead country rollout plantsFirst global rollout plants
Feedback fromfirst tranche intosecond tranche Feedback from
second tranche intoEU and global rollout
2015 2020 2025
TIMING FORDesignConstructionStart learning
BUILD ALL PLANTS CAPTURE READYRETROFIT CAPTURE
CCS - Sequencing the Deployment - the Big Picture
Gibbins, J. and Chalmers, H. Preparing for global rollout: A ‘developed country first’ demonstration programme for rapid CCS deployment. Energy Policy, 2008, 36(2), 501-507.
From presentation made
6 YEARS AGO
How could the global market develop?5. 2nd and 3rd generation capture technology projects?• MUST be based on previous projects, just using novel
technologies is clearly not a 2nd or 3rd generation• Some learning from studies already, e.g. Boundary Dam• But most proposed projects are still 1st generation• Need learning by doing from successful projects on:
• technology (design, procure, construct, commission)• markets (business models, contracts, financing)• regulation, permitting etc. etc.
• Plus reference plants to reduce risk and financing costs• Fully-developed market for supply chains has repeat units• Also need PEOPLE with experience from repeat projects
UK Annual Public Sector Energy RD&D Budgets (£M, 2012 money)
10 year gap - but new funding in place now
RCUK - Investing in a brighter energy future: Energy Research And Training ProspectusProf Jim Skea, Dr Matthew Hannon, Dr Aidan Rhodes, Centre for Environmental Policyhttp://www3.imperial.ac.uk/rcukenergystrategy
• Permitting of transport and storage in the EU
• Validated storage capacity• New transport infrastructure• North Sea Basin is major hub
for EU CCS, but currently transboundary issues
• Offshore storage experience• Including EOR?• Offshore pipeline experience• Re-use of existing pipelines
and offshore infrastructure• Clusters of anthropogenic
sources: business models, operation, CO2 mixing etc.
How could the global market develop?6. Offshore storageExploitable UK assets/experience from Commercialisation projects:
http://cdn.globalccsinstitute.com/sites/default/files/publications/118466/assessment-co2-storage-potential-guangdong-province-china-2.pdf
How could the global market develop?Example: Offshore storage potential in South ChinaAlso prospects in Brazil, Australia, India, US Gulf Coast, Middle East etc.
UK FCO project:
Feasibility Study of CCS- Readiness in Guangdong Province, China (GDCCSR)
Final Report: Part 2Assessment of CO2 StoragePotential for GuangdongProvince, China
GDCCSR-SCSIO TeamMarch 2013
CCS – A Global Perspective• The market for CCS is potentially very large indeed, but is only just
starting.• Therefore UK spending on CCS is likely to have more impact on
getting climate agreement than equivalent money for nuclear or renewables.
• Approximately 20 projects currently identified as operational by 2020 globally by GCCSI: ~50% IGCC, ~40% Post-com, ~10-15% Oxyfuel.
• But these are all 1st generation projects; some that still have to complete FEED and/or FID date back over 8 years……
• …. and a previous dash for coal that never happened.• Can expect 2nd generation projects to appear soon that are based on
1st generation projects and that benefit from learning-by-doing ….• …. and/or from pre-existing transport and storage infrastructure.• Offshore transport and storage is essential for other CCS markets ….• …. as well as UK storage capacity being a major European asset. • RD&D capacity and research-trained industry people is also being
developed to support CCS deployment.• CCS is starting to feel much more ‘practical’ – now at the
‘end of the beginning’ phase!