Spectrum and Mobile Broadband Beyond 2020

Global Mobile Data Traffic

GSMA 2014

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Mobile Data Traffic

Media Consumption Trends

Mobile first choice in social media

Mobile 1st Screen

1st

7

Mobile Broadband Subscriptions - Global

OECD 2015

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…..and the pace of change is accelerating eg - wearables and IoT

……IoT / M2M

• Interact• Monitor• Search• Manage• Control• Play

By 2030 your personal space could be surrounded by 3000 – 5000 connected everyday things!

“Beam me up Scotty!”

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Meeting customer demand for quality user experiences with latest generation mobile devices, apps and services depends on industry investing $billions in:• latest generation technologies• network infrastructure and • radio-frequency spectrum

Innovation Investment Infrastructure

Spectrum Demand• The ITU’s official spectrum demand model assumes that mobile traffic

will increase between 44 - 80 times between 2010 and 2020.

• ITU predicts that the rate of data growth means an average total of 1340–1960 MHz will be required for mobile broadband by 2020.

• The next opportunity to make additional spectrum available for mobile broadband is at WRC-15 (Nov) - where it is set to be the top agenda item.

• The outcome of WRC-15 will be the single most important factor determining the future availability of affordable, ubiquitous, high-speed mobile broadband services - GSMA.

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Infrastructure - Spectrum

• Utilisation of currently available MBB spectrum

• Future spectrum—1.5 GHz, 3.4/3.5 GHz

• Future spectrum—WRC-15 preparations [600 MHz, 2700-2900 MHz]

• Spectrum above 6 GHz – WRC-19

Spectrum ReviewWhat does reform look like ?

• Transparency - providing a clear and transparent policy framework

• Efficiency - promoting efficient allocation and use of spectrum • Flexibility - ensuring arrangements are as flexible as possible to promote choice and innovation • Certainty - providing confidence about regulatory arrangements and spectrum access terms and

conditions and promote international harmonisation in Australia’s interests

• Simplicity - creating a framework that is simpler, easier to understand and uses the least cost regulation required to achieve the objective

The proposed reform approach is to restructure and rationalise the legislative framework to:• provide for greater market-based activity• simplify regulatory structures, streamline regulatory processes and clarify the role for

Government Spectrum Review Dept of Comms 2015 13

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New Framework thinking

• Proactive approach – early response to market signals in consultation with industry – ongoing dialogue

• Simultaneous planning – domestic and regional / international

• Develop ability to prioritise spectrum flow of spectrum to market

• Work with industry to understand complexities of dealing with demand

• Long lead times is not a strategy – seek world leading process efficiency

• Future will rely on flexibility and agility – keep options open

• Influencing and leading – spectrum and innovation

Spectrum ReviewComplementarity of flexibility and certainty in licensing spectrum

Flexibility

Certainty

Apparatus licences -general

Apparatus licences -broadcast

Spectrum licences

Class licences

Newstreamlined licences

Spectrum Management Principles

• Allocate spectrum to the highest value use or uses

• Enable and encourage spectrum to move to its highest value use or uses

• Use the least cost and least restrictive approach to achieving policy objectives

• To the extent possible, promote both certainty and flexibility

• Balance the cost of interference and the benefits of greater spectrum utilisation 2014 ACMA FYSO

Beyond 2020 - Key themes

• “The ACMA will focus on the desired outcome—that is, delivery of mobile broadband services enabled by mobile broadband capacity, with provision of spectrum being one of several inputs to delivering this outcome.”

• “The ACMA will….seek to provide the right spectrum at the right time to address the growth in demand for mobile broadband capacity.” 2015 ACMA Beyond 2020 17

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Beyond 2020….

• ACMA strategy – good initial approach with refinements

• Timing concern given WRC-15 agenda item 1.1 impacts

• Recommend post WRC feedback on Beyond 2020 – Feb 16

• WRC cycle – potential limiting factor

• Respect for the balancing act for all stakeholders

• Contemporary policy approach with matching ACMA strategy – a “must have” given ecosystem dynamics

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Productivity & Mobile Broadband

1 200

1 250

1 300

1 350

1 400

1 450

1 500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

GDP (

real,

$bn)

Baseline GDP GDP without mobile broadband

$33.8 billion

Mobile sector productivity = $7.3 billionTime savings for businesses = $26.5 billion

The CIE 2014

Intergenerational Report - 2015

“To drive higher levels of prosperity through economic growth, we must increase productivity and participation.

Continued steps to boost productivity and encourage higher workforce participation will be critical to driving this economic growth.”

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Summary

• Strong data growth forecasts – set to continue• Video, IoT / M2M will drive increasing growth• Mobile broadband role & influence increasing • Policy settings must support mobile BB:– Innovation– Investment– Infrastructure – networks and spectrum

• Spectrum Review – major opportunity

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Final thought

“Mobile sits at the heart of a new ecosystem that is uniting the

digital and physical worlds and powering economic growth.”

2015 Anne Bouverot Director General GSMA

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Thank you!