cdr gary lazzaro lt dustin schultz lt forest mclaughlin oa 4202 network flows & graphs, fall...
TRANSCRIPT
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AMTRAK NETWORK DESIGN
CDR Gary Lazzaro
LT Dustin Schultz
LT Forest Mclaughlin
OA 4202 Network Flows & Graphs, Fall 2013
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Have you started vacation travel here?
• Why don’t people choose Amtrak for vacations?
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The “Backstory” Young people don’t “think” Amtrak for vacations
Slow travel vs. planeHigh cost vs. carInefficient routing
Improve Amtrak for vacationsTop destinations are Disney World / LandWill new customers pick Amtrak if network is better?
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Big Questions in this project Can Amtrak compete vs. cars or vs. planes?
Where to design improvements in network?
Do improvement costs need to be paid back?
What are benefits to a passenger?How much time can be saved?What must a ticket price be?
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The Amtrak “Math Model” Objective 1: Minimize travel distance
Objective 2: Minimize amortized ticket cost
Both objectives subject to:
Netflow(yij)
𝑥𝑖𝑗 ∈ሼ0,1ሽ ∀ (𝑖,𝑗) ∈𝐴 𝑥𝑖𝑗 ≤ 4𝑥
min𝑥 min𝑦 (𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑗 + 𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑗)𝑦𝑖𝑗𝑖,𝑗∈𝐸∪𝐴
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Starting CitiesSEA – Seattle, WAOAK – Oakland, CALAX – Los Angeles, CAORD – Chicago, IL
DFW – Dallas, TXMCI –Kansas City, MOMSY – New Orleans, LAMCO – Orlando, FLJFK – New York, NY
Destination CitiesLAX – Los Angeles, CAMCO – Orlando, FL
LAX
MCO
OAK
SEA
ORD
MCI
DFW
MSY
JFK
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New Tracks ModeledSt Louis, MO to Jacksonville, FL (Atlanta Line)Oklahoma City, OK to Kansas City, MO (OKKC Line)Albuquerque, NM to Dallas, TX (ABQ Line)New Orleans, LA to Jacksonville, FL (Sunset Limited)
OK
KC
STLATL
NO
JAXDFW
ABQ
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Measures of Effectiveness
MOE 1: Travel TimeTrain Time Chicago to Orlando: 22 hrs 37 min (model)Car Time Chicago to Orlando: 17 hrs +hotel stay (web)
MOE 2: Ticket Price (Per Person)Train Cost Chicago to Orlando: $176.64 (model)Plane Cost Chicago to Orlando: $203.00 (web)
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Operator’s Problem
Operator is the Amtrak board of directors Should Operator improve network?
If yes: Which improvement is chosen?If no: Why not?
Which objective to choose?Minimize DistanceMinimize Cost
What is break-even ticket price?
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Travel Time v. Design Option
Original OKKC ATL Sunset ABQ0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Time To Disney World
SEA
OAK
LAX
ORD
JFK
DFW
MCI
MSY
Track Options
Tim
e o
f T
rip
(H
ou
rs)
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Travel Time v. Design Option
SEA OAK LAX ORD JFK DFW MCI MSY0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Time To Disney World
Original
OKKC
ATL
Sunset
ABQ
Track Options
Tim
e o
f T
rip
(H
ou
rs)
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Travel Time v. Design Option
Original OKKC ATL Sunset ABQ0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Time To Disney Land
SEA
OAK
ORD
JFK
DFW
MCI
MSY
MCO
Track Options
Tim
e o
f T
rip
(H
ou
rs)
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Travel Time v. Design Option
SEA OAK ORD JFK DFW MCI MSY MCO0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Time To Disney Land
Original
OKKC
ATL
Sunset
ABQ
Track Options
Tim
e o
f T
rip
(H
ou
rs)
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Travel Cost v. Design Option
Original OKKC ATL Sunset ABQ0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Ticket Price To Disney World
SEA
OAK
LAX
ORD
JFK
DFW
MCI
MSY
Track Options
Sin
gle
Pa
ss
en
ge
r T
ick
et
Pri
ce
(D
oll
ars
)
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Travel Cost v. Design Option
SEA OAK LAX ORD JFK DFW MCI MSY0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Ticket Price To Disney World
Original
OKKC
ATL
Sunset
ABQ
Track Options
Tic
ke
t P
ric
e (
Do
lla
rs)
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Travel Cost v. Design Option
Original OKKC ATL Sunset ABQ0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Ticket Price To Disney Land
SEA
OAK
ORD
JFK
DFW
MCI
MSY
MCO
Track Options
Sin
gle
Pa
ss
en
ge
r T
ick
et
Pri
ce
(D
oll
ars
)
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Travel Cost v. Design Option
SEA OAK ORD JFK DFW MCI MSY MCO0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Ticket Price To Disney Land
Original
OKKC
ATL
Sunset
ABQ
Track Options
Tic
ke
t P
ric
e (
Do
lla
rs)
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Family Travel: Objective-Cost
SEA OAK LAX ORD JFK DFW MCI MSY0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Family Trip Cost To Disney World
Plane
Car
Sunset
Origination City
2 A
du
lt,
2 C
hil
d T
rip
Co
st
(Do
lla
rs)
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Family Travel: Objective-Cost
SEA OAK LAX ORD JFK DFW MCI MSY0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Family Trip Cost To Disney World
Plane
Car
Train (Optimal)
Origination City
2 A
du
lt,
2 C
hil
d T
rip
Co
st
(Do
lla
rs)
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Family Travel: Objective-Cost
SEA OAK ORD JFK DFW MCI MSY MCO0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Family Trip Cost To Disney Land
Plane
Car
Sunset
Origination City
2 A
du
lt,
2 C
hil
d T
rip
Co
st
(Do
lla
rs)
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Family Travel: Objective-Cost
SEA OAK ORD JFK DFW MCI MSY MCO0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Family Trip Cost To Disney Land
Plane
Car
Train (Optimal)
Origination City
2 A
du
lt,
2 C
hil
d T
rip
Co
st
(Do
lla
rs)
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Family Travel: Objective-Time
SEA OAK LAX ORD JFK DFW MCI MSY0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Family Trip Time To Disney World
Sunset
Car
Original
Origination City
Tri
p T
ime
(D
ay
s)
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Family Travel: Objective-Time
SEA OAK LAX ORD JFK DFW MCI MSY0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Family Trip Time To Disney World
Sunset
Car
Original
Origination City
Tri
p T
ime
(D
ay
s)
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Model Analysis / Discussion
Two potentially competing objectives New track cost only assessed when used
No fee for trains not using new tracks Train can be competitive with planes and cars One network design option is clearly the best
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Limitations of Analysis More accurate trains speeds throughout US
Did not model high speed rail Exact rail distances / cost per train-mile Model every rail station to include delay times Accurate modeling of passenger loads
Population / Demand model according to regionLong vs. short distance passengers on same train
Increased number of start / destination cities
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Questions?