CEESA – Initial 100 per cent renewable energy transport scenarios

Wednesday the 28th of August 2007Brian Vad Mathiesen, M.Sc. PhD Fellow

Department of Development and Planningwww.plan.aau.dk/~bvm

Agenda

Presentation of the work conducted in WP2 of the CEESA project by Brian Vad Mathiesen, Mads Pagh Nielsen, Niclas Scott Bentsen

•Transport demands and projections•Biomass production and conversion •Transport scenarios

Data for reference transport and energy consumption

• Transport and energy demands in ”Energy Strategy 2025” from the Danish Energy Authority.

• Mainly based upon a background dataset from the Danish Road Directorate from 2002

• No projection updated datasets are as comprehensive as the on from 2002 (until now)

• The key preconditions are adopted agreements and economic development

• The dataset includes annual transport demands, energy consumption, load factors and emissions.

• In 2008 the transport demand was changed by the Danish Energy Authority from 0.7 % increase to 1% increase, but not in detail.

Data for reference transport and energy consumption

• Traffic work (km)• Passenger transport work (person km)• Fright transport work (ton km)• Load factors (persons or tons pr.

vehicle km)• Emission data (NOx, CO, HC,

particles, SO2, CO2)• Energy consumption pr. mode of

transport divided into fuels

• Vehicle petrol (all under 2 ton) • Vehicle diesel (all under 2 ton)• Van petrol (between 2 and 6 ton)• Van diesel (between 2 and 6 ton)• Heavy vehicle diesel (all above 6 ton)• Domestic aviation• International aviation• Ferry diesel• Cargo ship diesel• Bus diesel• Train diesel• Train electricity• Fright train diesel• Fright train electricity

-

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

Passenger transport demands, mill. person km

Bicycle

Train Elec.

Train Diesel

Bus Diesel

Ferry Diesel

Domestic aviation JP

Int. aviation JP

Vehicle Diesel

Vehicle Petrol

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

Goods transport demands, mill. ton km

Fright train Elec.

Fright train Diesel

Cargo ship Diesel

Van Diesel

Van Petrol

Heavy vehicle Diesel

Reference transport demand from 2030 until 2050

• No official (or unofficial) projections are available after 2030

• Using the same method as the Danish Road Directorate a conservative projection is to use the years with the lowest increase in the projection period i.e. 2020-2030

• The efficiency of the modes of transport in the reference can be calculated and included into the projection

Reference transport energy demand from 2030 until 2050

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048

Ref. 2050 Fuel consumption, PJFreight train Elec.

Freight train Diesel

Train Elec.

Train Diesel

Bus Diesel

Cargo ship Diesel

Ferry Diesel

Int. aviation JP

Domestic aviation JP

Van Diesel

Van Petrol

Heavy vehicle Diesel

Vehicle Diesel

Vehicle Petrol

Problem areas in the projections• Future investments in infrastructure not included

(no traffic leaps, no changes in perceived distances)• Expected distance pr. vehicle pr. year is a key parameter and

hard to determine. It influences the official records of efficiencies and the future transport demands.

• According to the Ministry of Transport and Energy the rate of increase in the domestic aviation is too large.

• EU agreement has not had the effect hoped for, thus new vehicles have lower efficiencies than expected in the future.

• The main efforts from the Danish Road Directorate is focused on roads based modes of transport – no projections are done for busses and trains – thus it is not made clear which preconditions might effect the transport demand in busses and trains

Problem areas in the projections• Consequences for the energy demands:

– transport demands for personal vehicles are too high– but the efficiencies of vehicles are lower– projections are not based on human behaviour but on

connections between the number of vehicles, economic development, low fuel prices and efficiencies. No real projections of busses and rail transport

– The projection may be self-fulfilling because they are used for infrastructure investments but not based on sound knowledge about transport demands

Invitation from the Ministry of Transport and Energy to collaborate/follow the development of a new modelling tool for easier and better development of alternative scenarios, incl. energy and socio-ecnomomy.

Transport technologies – preliminary inputs

• Vehicle petrol (all under 2 ton) • Vehicle diesel (all under 2 ton)• Van petrol (between 2 and 6 ton)• Van diesel (between 2 and 6 ton)• Heavy vehicle diesel (all above 6 ton)• Domestic aviation• International aviation• Ferry diesel• Cargo ship diesel• Bus diesel• Train diesel• Train electricity• Fright train diesel• Fright train electricity

Vehicle specific energy demand

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

BEV Hybrid ICE Biodiesel ICE Ethanol ICE Biogas Diesel train Electric train

km/M

J

trains

cars

Renewable energy sources and land usage

• Crops can convert approx. ½-2 per cent radiation into biomass energy. i.e. 1-3 W/m2 (equal to a gross area demand of 1000-3000 ha/PJ)

• PV can convert approx. 10% of the radiation. E.g. 7 m2 of PV can produce 800-1000 kWh/year, i.e. equal to 13-16 W/m2 (equal to a gross area demand of approx. 200 ha/PJ)

• A 10 m² solar thermal unit can produce approx. 5000 kWh/year equal to 50-60 W/m2 (equal to a gross area demand of approx. 50 ha/PJ)

• A 150 kW wind turbine covers between 20 and 200 m2 and produces 300.000 kWh per year equal to 200 - 1500 W/m2 (equal to a gross area demand of approx. 10 ha/PJ)

RES and land use

W/m2

Energy production per area

0

25

50

75

Wind Power Solar Thermal Photo Voltaic Biomass CropsW

/m2

Energy production per area

0

400

800

1200

1600

Wind Power Solar Thermal Photo Voltaic Biomass Crops

W/m

2

RES and acres

Actual (year 2010) Possible (year 2050) Ha/PJ Gross area demand

Net area demand Gross area demand

Net area demand

BioDiesel *) Biogas Methanol Ethanol **) Electricity (wind)

25,000

6,000

9,000

18,000

10

15,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

10

11,000

6,000

9,000

14,000

10

11,000

6,000

9,000

8,000

10

Table 2: Gross and Net area demands for bio-fuel and electricity production (See appendix 3) *) RME/Vegetable oil based on rape year 2010 and Syn. diesel based on wood in 2050

**) Wheat grain in 2010 and Wheat grain and straw in 2050

Scenarios

• Actual 2010

• Possible 2010

• BAU (Business As Usual) 2050

• Ideal 2050

• Recommendable 2050 (CEESA scenario)

Prioritisation• High priority to electric vehicles,

low priority to biomass

• Within biomass:• 1. Biogas• 2. Bio-methanol• 3. Bio-ethonal• 4. Bio-Diesel

Results (so far..!)Demand Person Transportation

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Actual(

2010)

BAU(2050)

REC (2

050)

Ideal (20

50)

Actual(

2010)

BAU(2050)

REC (2

050)

Ideal (20

50)

Lowdemand

Highdemand

Pers

onkm

/yea

r

Bicycles

Airplanes

Ferry

Busses

Trains

Cars (>50km)

Cars (<50km)

Demand Goods Transportation

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Actual(

2010)

BAU(2050)

REC (2

050)

Ideal (20

50)

Actual(

2010)

BAU(2050)

REC (2

050)

Ideal (20

50)

Lowdemand

Highdemand

Mio

.t.k

m/y

ear

Ships

Trains

Van

Trucks

Fuel and electricity demand for transportation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Actual(

2010)

Possible(

2010)

BAU(2050)

REC (2

050)

Ideal (20

50)

Actual(

2010)

Possible(

2010)

BAU(2050)

REC (2

050)

Ideal (20

50)

Low demand High demand

PJ/y

ear

Electricity

Ethanol

Methanol

Biogas

Biodiesel

JF

Diesel

Petrol

Residual biomass potential in Denmark 165 – 400 PJ

Gross area demand for transportation

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

Actual(

2010)

Possible(

2010)

BAU(2050)

REC (2

050)

Ideal (20

50)

Actual(

2010)

Possible(

2010)

BAU(2050)

REC (2

050)

Ideal (20

50)

Low demand High demand

km2

Electricity

Ethanol

Methanol

Biogas

Biodiesel

JF

Diesel

Petrol

Net area demand for transportation

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

Actual(

2010)

Possible(

2010)

BAU(2050)

REC (2

050)

Ideal (20

50)

Actual(

2010)

Possible(

2010)

BAU(2050)

REC (2

050)

Ideal (20

50)

Low demand High demand

km2

Electricity

Ethanol

Methanol

Biogas

Biodiesel

JF

Diesel

Petrol

Farm land usage in Denmark in 2008 26,830 km2 (60%)

Points of discussion

Transport in CEESA at the present stage:• The methodology should be focused upon, the input data will be updated. Views

on the overall methodology?

• Can Denmark (and the rest of the world) convert to 100 per cent renewable energy if the transport demand continues to increase as expected in the BAU forecast?

• Which demand forecast will we include in the scenarios…?• What kind of public regulation initiatives should be used

• Other issues?