Cellphone Money; between Internet Money and Monopoly Money

tommy.b.sullivan@gmail.com

december 15 2008

table of contents

• objective• cellphones• cellphone manufacturers• smartphones• platforms

• Symbian - Nokia• RIM - Blackberry• Windows Mobile• Linux• iPhone - Apple

• OHA in context• OHA vs. iPhone• fun facts!

objectives

• Which platforms should we develop for?

• How many people will be using each platform?

• 10.4% growth, 6.6% forward

• Cheap devices & plans

• Pervasive infrastructure

• Emerging markets make up 2/3

cellphones

Others18%

LG7%

Motorola14%

Sony Ericsson9%

Samsung14%

Nokia38%

International Cellphone Market

http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS21202108

cellphone manufacturesNokia, the slow moving giant

Samsung, a portion of recent growth can be attributed Nokia’s CDMA lawsuit

Sony Ericsson, passed Motorola by standing still

Motorola, hemorrhaging money, supports five separate OS’s

LG, compatriot of Samsung but smaller

Others, diverse strategies, #2 in recession0.10

0.05

-0.32

-0.01

0.22

0.05

0.21

0.54

-0.40

0.02

0.33

0.27

0.01

0.27

-0.27

0.38

0.42

0.26

∂ = 07YoY ∂ = 1QYoY ∂ = 3QYoYhttp://www.cellular-news.com/story/34392.phphttp://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS21202108

smartphones

• 26% growth, 26% forward

• Expensive devices and plans

• Decent infrastructure, in metropolitan areas only

iPhone8%

Linux12%

Windows Mobile16%

BlackBerry17%

Symbian48%

International Smartphone Market

references #3

platforms

platform projections are from references #3

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

78,307 78,925

92,255

112,623

129,637

145,758

Symbian - Nokia

•Nokia owns 48%; paying $410 million for the outstanding shares from Sony Ericsson, Panasonic, Siemens, Samsung

•Open source the first half of 2010•UI fragmented, think browser compatibility issues•C++, steep learning curve, tightly bound to archaic models

N96 - $776!

N97

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

12,263

22,857

32,535

42,165

51,711

62,390

RIM - Blackberry

•Traditionally enterprise, Pearl and Curve break away•$200 million development fund•Gatekeepers to app store, signature•C++, JavaME support

Blackberry Storm - $499

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

13,654

21,526

31,011

42,881

54,850

67,784

Windows Mobile

•Perfect for businesses standardized on Microsoft solutions; Exchange and Sharepoint

•IE6 (shoot me), Flash lite, Silverlight in the future•Visual C++, .Net Compact Framework

HTC’s Touch Pro - $539

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

14,100

20,31622,505

25,167

28,04230,268

Linux

•Upward of 20 different flavors, moving towards unification•LiMo and LiPS foundation: Motorola, NEC, DoCoMo, Panasonic, Samsung

高さ 約 !

iPhone - Apple

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

3,704

10,076

15,780

19,554

23,183

26,629•Exchange and VPN support, MobileMe flopped•$100 million development fund•Gatekeepers to app store, approval•Objective C, smaller sandbox

iPhone 3G $399

OHA in context

T-Mobile G1- $399

•C/C++, Java running in Dalvik VM•Multitasking operating system•Market, not a store, no middleman, kill switch

•Tremendous industry backing and mindshare

Open Handset Alliance to the rescue! With

our powers combined...

Software, HardwareSymbian

NokiaMotorola

BenQDoCoMo, LG, Samsung,

Sony EricssonBlackBerryWindows Mobile

HTCMotorola

ASUS, LG, SamsungLinux

MotorolaNEC, Panasonic

DoCoMo, Samsung, Vodafone

iPhonePalmOthers

2009 Units92,357,80876,963,8792,073,281

13,320,648

32,558,30731,011,98716,157,4702,073,281

12,781,23522,504,0682,073,281

20,430,787

15,780,7954,171,000

60,335

http://www.canalys.com/pr/2008/r2008112.htm as a guide...

Android 09 iPhone 08 ∑ iPhone 09 iPhone 09 ∑ Blackberry 09 Blackberry 09 ∑

67,655,000

32,558,307

25,856,000

15,780,79513,780,00012,847,191

OHA vs. iPhoneOHA Estimate Conversion Rate 2009 Devices

SymbianWindowsLinuxOthers

Android

12,729,799 40.00% 5,091,92031,011,987 5.00% 1,550,59912,288,675 50.00% 6,144,337

60,335 100.00% 60,33512,847,191

Android 09 Low HighUnits% of iPhone 09 ∑

5,374,149 16,599,96220.78% 64.20%

fun facts!

• Motorola’s new CEO of Mobile Devices, Sanjay Jha is a big fan of Android & not losing money

• “We are puzzled by recent product announcements like the Aura - a $2,000 device - that seems to totally ignore current market dynamics”

references

Gartner #G00163585, 24 November 2008Dataquest Insight: Market Share for Mobile Devices, 3Q08

IDC #214293, Volume 1, September 2008Mobile Device Technology and Trends: Forecast Update

IDC #214291, Volume 1, October 2008Worldwide Mobile OS 2008-2012 Forecast and Analysis