center for advanced energy...
TRANSCRIPT
A research
partnership between
Boise State University,
Idaho National
Laboratory, Idaho
State University and
University of Idaho.
Center for Advanced Energy Studies
Economic and Employment Impacts
of Small Modular Nuclear Reactors
Geoffrey Black, PhD
Department of Economics, Boise State University
(208) 426-1359
Presentation to Idaho LINE Commission
Boise, Idaho June 29, 2012
Overview of Small Modular Reactors
“There is a surge of interest in new, small and medium-size
reactor designs that allow a more incremental investment
than is required for a big reactor, and provide a better match
to grid capacity in many developing countries.” (IAEA)
Advantages of Small (<300 MWe) Modular Reactors
• Design features: modularity, simplicity, enhanced
safety contribute to lower levelized unit electricity costs
(LUEC)
• Smaller scale yields lower capital costs and risk
MDCs and LDCs
• “Grid-Appropriate” – smaller & localized better match,
avoid long transmission lines, grids with limited
capacity
• Cogeneration opportunities (industrial steam, heating,
desalinization, etc)
• Overcoming ‘energy poverty’ without CHGs
Overview of Small Modular Reactors
Economic Impacts of SMR Production in US
Ongoing collaboration between Boise State University,
University of Idaho, and Idaho State University
• Estimate market penetration under different adoption
scenarios
• Convert projected market into generic 100 MWe units
deployed until 2030
• Estimate costs of SMR production
• Estimate economic impacts:
Economic Design/engineering, licensing phase
Building manufacturing facilities
Manufacturing, deployment and operations of SMR
units
Estimation of SMR Production Costs
• Develop more precise estimates of overnight costs
and LUEC
Based on 3-digit Code of Accounts from EMWG “Cost
Estimating Guidelines for Generation IV Nuclear Energy
Systems
• Comparison of estimated COAs to other studies and
proprietary data for validation ‘Rolled up’ 3-digit COAs to 2-digit COAs
Economic Impacts of SMR Production in US
SMR Cost Estimation (2-Digit COA)
Estimated SMR Direct and Indirect Overnight Costs: $608 million
Design/Engineering/Licensing
• $450 million (DOE: Award for SMR design, engineering, licensing of $452 million for 2 different
design projects, with cost share among 2 awardees)
First of a Kind (FOAK) unit
• Estimate $300 million for manufacturing facilities (Industry estimates, 2011 Univ Chicago study)
Nth of a Kind (NOAK) units
• Use 3-digit COAs (50+) to map to I-O Model sectors
(440+) to better estimate economic impacts of NOAK
units
Estimating Economic Impacts
Deployment
• Results here based on NOAK deployment schedule
using Moderate Nuclear Adoption from CAES study
Economic and Employment Impacts of Small Modular Nuclear
Reactors (2010)
• With international sales omitted 14 units annually by
2030
Operations
• Revenues cover O&M, re-fueling $0.075/kWh, 95% efficiency, 100 Mwe, 8760 hrs/year
Estimating Economic Impacts
Economic Impacts: R & D Phase
Design/Engineering/Licensing Economic Impacts: USA
Sales Value-Added Earnings (Payroll) Employment
Indirect
Business Taxes
Total $ 1,294,086,299 $ 793,751,372 $ 583,517,685 10,198 $ 41,809,841
$100 Million Research and Design in Idaho: Idaho Impacts
Sales Value-Added Earnings (Payroll) Employment
Indirect
Business Taxes
Total $ 169,377,544 $ 108,295,100 $ 90,281,321 1,871 $ 4,211,911
FOAK Economic Impacts
Sales Value-Added
Earnings
(Payroll) Employment
Indirect Business
Taxes
Manufacturing $ 2,389,593,291 $ 1,234,422,550 $ 762,967,947
13,092 $ 66,418,424
Construction $ 649,313,928 $ 342,824,605 $ 228,105,497
4,523 $19,001,792
Total SMR
Production $3,038,907,219 $1,577,247,155 $ 991,073,444 17,615 $ 85,420,216
Annual
Operations $101,566,466 $76,471,996 $26,586,992 356 $ 13,100,859
Total $3,140,473,685 $1,653,719,151 $1,017,660,436 17,971 $ 98,521,075
Economic Impacts: FOAK Units
Economic Impacts: NOAK Units
N-Kind: Economic Impacts of a Typical SMR Module
Sales Value-Added
Earnings
(Payroll) Employment
Indirect
Business
Taxes
Manufacturing $1,419,680,573 $762,964,837 $491,813,434 8,490 $ 40,052,649
Construction $649,313,928 $342,824,605 $228,105,497 4,523 $19,001,792
Total SMR
Production $2,068,994,500 $1,105,789,441 $719,918,932 13,013 $59,054,442
Annual
Operations $101,566,466 $76,471,996 $26,586,992 356 $13,100,859
Total $2,170,560,966 $1,182,261,437 $746,505,924 13,369 $72,155,300
Economic Impacts: Cumulative Impacts
Total Cumulative Economic Impacts of N-Kind SMRs 2019-2030
Sales Value-Added
Earnings
(Payroll) Job Years
Indirect
Business Taxes
Construction/
Manufacturing $99,377,640,086 $ 53,407,538,576 $34,426,940,402 594,298 $2,803,685,453
Operations $184,405,155,503 $97,362,187,700 $64,781,961,214 1,284,550 $5,396,508,980
Total $ 283,782,795,588
$150,769,726,275 $99,208,901,617
1,878,848 $8,200,194,433
Economic Impacts – Summary
Manufacturing, Construction, Installation and Operation
of Each Representative 100 MW SMR Unit:
• Creates over 13,000 jobs; and
• Generates:
Over $2 billion in sales
Nearly $1.2 billion value-added
Nearly $750 million in earnings (payroll) and
Over $72 million in indirect business taxes
Economic Impacts – Summary
Cumulative Impacts of Manufacturing, Construction,
Installation and Operations of SMRs 2019-2030
• Creates over 1.8 million jobs; and
• Generates:
Nearly $290 billion in sales
Over $150 billion value-added
Nearly $100 billion in earnings (payroll)
Over $8 billion in indirect business taxes
Thank You
• For Information on Study, Please Contact:
Geoffrey Black, PhD
Chair, Department of Economics
Boise State University
1910 University Drive
Boise, Idaho 83725
(208) 426-1359