center on budget and policy priorities cbpp.org federal budget & health outlook: implications...
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
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Federal Budget & Health Outlook:Implications for CO
Robb Gray Director of State Engagement &
Partnerships www.cbpp.org
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Overview
• Budget Outlook
• President’s Budget Proposal
• Congressional Budget Process
• Major Negotiations Likely Coming
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Fiscal Outlook in Brief
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Key Policy Issues in Budget Process
• Appropriations / sequestration
• Cuts /changes to CHIP, Medicaid, ACA
• Social Security Disability Insurance
• Expiring improvements in the EITC and CTC
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Deficits Have Fallen Sharply Since Recession
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Major Health Programs including Health Reform Now Projected to Cost Less Than in January 2010 without Health ReformSpending in trillions of dollars, 2011-2020
Note: Baseline projections of Medicare, Medicaid, health insurance subsidies, and Children’s Health Insurance Program for fiscal years 2011-2020. January 2015 projections include actual spending for FY 2011-14.
Source: CBPP analysis based on Congressional Budget Office estimates.
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Recent Policy Savings to Reduce Deficits Largely Come from Program
Cuts
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NDD Spending Falling to Historic Lows:“Road Map of Disinvestment”
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Non-Defense Discretionary Falling After Adjusting for Inflation
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Sequestration Relief Has Been Evenly Divided Between Defense and Non-Defense
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Tax Expenditures Are Very Costly
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Balance Budget in Ten Years
Increase Defense
No New
Revenues
No Major
Savings from
Current Social
Security or
Medicare
Beneficiaries
NDD and Low-Income Entitlements
Likely Architecture of GOP Budgets
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Ryan FY 2015 Budget Priorities
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Budget Process and Timetable
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This Year’s Budget and Health Debate
• February: President released 2016 Budget
• March/April: Congress will pass a budget
resolution. (reconciliation instructions)
• End of March: SGR & CHIP?
• Fall: House/Senate will try to pass a
reconciliation bill; appropriations
process; debt ceiling must be raised
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Reconciliation
• Entitlements
• Simple Majority Passage
• Cuts and Changes
• Debt Ceiling
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Key Threats to Low-Income Households
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Key Threats to HEALTHCARE
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Extension OF CHIP Funding
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House/Senate Republican ACA-Medicaid PlanRoadmap for Reconciliation (King decision)?
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Protecting Tax Credits for Working Families and Veterans in CO
• More than 300,000 CO households received the EITC in CO 2012.
• Nearly that many received refundable part of the Child Tax Credit (CTC).
• 25,000 CO veteran and armed-forces families received the EITC or the refundable part of CTC in 2012.
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Working-Family Tax Credits help at Every Stage of Life
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Single Mother Working Full Time at Minimum Wage With Two Children Would
Lose Entire Child Tax Credit at End of 2017
24*The provision, which expires after 2017, lowers the level of earnings excluded for the purpose of calculating the refundable Child Tax Credit.
Source: CBPP calculations based on Tax Policy Center data
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Principles for Any Budget DEAL
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What Can You Do?• Make your voice heard
• Educate policymakers; hold them
accountable
• Engage in the process in a timely
fashion
• Enlist your allies
• Stay connected: Let us help you -Sign up for CBPP analyses
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