Canada, Europe and the Defence of the

Arctic: Partners or Competitors?

The European Union, Canada, and the Arctic:

Challenges of International Governance

Ottawa September 21 2011

Rob Huebert

Rhuebert@ucalgary.ca

Centre for Military and Strategic Studies

Main Issues

• Canada and Europe as long time Partners

and allies

• Canada-European Arctic relations were

generally minor in past but now growing in

importance

• New (Renewed?) Security interest in region

• Tendency to refuse to discount change –

until it occurs!

Emerging European-Canadian

Security Issues

• Relationship with Russia

– Role of energy

– To contain or engage

• Role of NATO

• Issue Areas

– Hans Island

– NWP

Canada-Europe

Transformation of the Arctic

• The Arctic is a state of massive

transformation

– Climate Change

– Resource Development – (was up to a high

$140+ barrel of oil- now $86/ barrel)

– Geopolitical Transformation/Globalization

• How do we understand what is happening?

• What is the role for the development of the

new Arctic security regime and its impact

on Canada-EU relations?

Arrival of New Actors and New

Interests in the Arctic

• Issue is not “voice” but is interest

• European Union

– Membership on Arctic Council

• China

– Polar Bases: 2 ½ Antarctica; 1 Arctic

– Arctic Vessels – Xue Long; 10,000 ton new research

icebreaker

– Interests: Climate Change; Navigation; Resources

– Membership on Arctic Council

New Geopolitics of the North• Russia

– Renewed Assertiveness

– Petrodollars

• United States– Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act

– International Role as remaining Superpower

• Norway– Refocus on North

– Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia

• Denmark– Issues with Greenland – social; energy

– New Naval capabilities

• Iceland– Economic melt-down

– Volcanic melt-down

• Finland/Sweden– NATO – Loyal Arrow

• Canada– Re-examining its Arctic capabilities

– Renewed Assertiveness

Issue 1: European and Canadian

Relationship with Russia

• Evolving Russian Arctic Strategic

policy/capability

• Evolving Governance in Russia

• European-Russian relationship

– Oil and gas supplies

• Canada-Russia

– Extended Continental Shelf

– NWP and NSR

Russia

• Resumption of Northern Fleet Operation

• Commitment to have 5-6 Carrier Battle-groups

by 2025/30 - Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky

• Resumption of Russian TU-95 (Bear) Arctic

Flights, Aug18/07; decision to build new

bomber

• Purchase of 4 Mistral

Renewed Russian Maritime Nuclear

Deterrent

• 1990’s Period of Reduction

– AMEC/G-8 assistance in Sub Decommissioning

• 2000’s Renewal

• 6 SSBN 995 Borey

– 1 built; 3 building

• 6 SSN 885 Yasen/Graney

– 1 built; 2 building

• Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky

Commitment to 20 more SSBN in 15 years

Yury Dolgoruky

Swedish/Baltic (Northern

NATO) Response to French

Sales to Russia• Nordic-Baltic Summit Jan 2011 – UK,

Norway, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania

plus Finland, Sweden

• Swedish FM – Submarines Procurement

Mistral

Summary

• Differences between Canada and Europe in

responding to Russia

• Canada tends to be more assertive

(aggressive?)

• But divisions regarding response to Russia

exists within Europe

– Differences also public and non-public

Issue 2: NATO

• What are NATO states doing in Arctic?

• What is role of NATO in Arctic?

– Expanded more formal role

– SAR; confidence building

– No role

• Gaining/Losing Northern NATO members

– +Finland…..Sweden

– -Iceland

Norway

• The High North is the most important priority area

of the Norwegian Defence- Norwegian Minister of

Defence Anne-Grete Strøm-Erichsen – April 2008

• 5 New Ice-Capable Frigates

– Very capable

• Helicopters stationed at northern base of

Bardufoss

• Purchase 48 F-35s November 2008

Norway - Exercise Cold Response

• Large scale exercise with Norway and

NATO forces – 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010

• 8,000-10,000

• Held in Northern Norway in mid-March

Denmark

• Substantial Re-building Northern and General

purpose surface fleet post 1989

• 4 Thesis – ice-capable; 2 Knud Ramussen – ice

capable

• Decision expected in 2-3 years F-35 purchase

• Deployments of F-16s to Greenland

• Long-term Security Ramifications of

Greenland Independence

Finland/Sweden

• Loyal Arrow – June 2009

• 200 aircraft; 2000 troops; 50 vessels

• Finland developing closer links with NATO

– Response to Russia/Georgia engagement

• Sweden “concern” by French sale to Russia

• Sweden is currently investigating

submarine sighting off Gothenburg

HMS Ark Royal in Swedish

Waters

Iceland

• Closure of the US Air Station Keflavik in

September 2006

• Economic and Volcanic Impacts of Iceland GDP

• Impact of Arctic Five meetings

• "China and India lent Iceland a helping hand in

many constructive ways whereas Europe was

hostile and the US was absent," Ólafur Ragnar

Grímsson – President Sept 2011

France

• Special Ambassador for the Arctic

• Annual French Arctic submarine missions

• 27th mountain infantry brigade – Arctic

Operations

• Air Force operations in Sweden, Finland,

Norway, Alaska

• All surface naval units must carry out Arctic

deployment

– Ministry of Defence June 22, 2010

Canada

• New Military Operations since 2002

• 6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels

• Nanisivik Refueling Facility

• Resolute Bay Training Facility

• Feb 2008 Budget – $720 Million Icebreaker

• June 2008 Canada First Defence Strategy (Harper White Paper)

• Northern Strategy summer 2009 :Four pillars• Increased Rangers Patrols

• Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic – Nordreg

Canada - Northern Exercises

• Resumed in 2002 – Operation Narwhal

• Hudson Sentinel -2005 Hudson Bay

• Operation Nanook Eastern Arctic

– 750 troops and OGD

• Operation Nunakput Western Arctic

• Operation Nunalivut – Ranger Patrol

• Operation Nanook 2010

– US, Denmark navies/coast guards– but not a

NATO exercise

Summary

• NATO is discussing the Arctic

– Does it have a formal role?

• NATO members have resumed military

exercises in Arctic

• NATO- Russia

– Does it embrace/engage Russia?

– Does it prepare to respond to Russia?

Issue 3.1 Hans Island

• Long-term low-level treatment of dispute

• 2002 and 2003 landing off Danish Troops

Danish Military Troops on

Hans Island HDMS Vaedderen

Hans Island

Summary

• Canada and Denmark were able to resolve

• But question remains as to why the second

trip to island by Danish military units

• Demonstrates escalation potential of even

meaningless issues

Issue 3.2 The Canadian Northwest

Passages• Canadian/Russian position – Internal Waters

• US/EU position – International Strait

• Issue is over Control of Trans-Polar Shipping

• Issue is also over aircraft transit

• Canada-US Security Relationship

Canadian NWP

Polarstern 2010

Sovereignty and Lands Claim

Summary

• “Mandatory” Enforcement of NORDREG

plus expected Russian new legislation on

NSR

• Growing assertiveness of EU on NWP/NSR

• Coastal state control vs freedom of

navigation

The Emerging Arctic Security

Regime

• Circumpolar states have called for cooperation

– What will be the new international governance

regime?

• Circumpolar states are building up their combat

capable force for the Arctic

– New Equipment – Ice and Combat Capable

– New Policies – Unilateral “concern”

– New Training

Conclusion

• Geopolitics Concerns reduced immediately after end of Cold War

• New concerns are arising as Arctic is perceived/becoming more accessible

• Issues will be Maritime/Aerospace

• Issues will be understanding entry of new actors to the region

• NATO’s role is not clear

• Europe and Canada are determining what their interests are in Arctic – not Automatic that it will be aligned