CentreCentre report of KMAreport of KMA2929thth WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. 20142014

CentreCentre report of KMAreport of KMA2929thth WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. 20142014

Hoon ParkNumerical Model Management Office KMA

2

Outlines

• Current status & update strategy of KMA NWP system

• Upgrade NWP system in 2014 and upcoming plans

• Research activities in NWP at KMA

Status & upgrade strategyStatus & upgrade strategy

4

KMA’s 3KMA’s 3ndnd Supercomputer (current) Supercomputer (current)

RefRef HaeOnHaeOn HaeDamHaeDam TotalTotal

Installation YearInstallation Year 2010. 122010. 12

Core NumberCore Number 45,12045,120 45,120 45,120 90,24090,240

Core TypeCore Type AMD 2.1 GHz, 12 coreAMD 2.1 GHz, 12 core

Peak performancePeak performance 379 TF379 TF 379 TF379 TF 758TF758TF

Main MemoryMain Memory 60 TB60 TB 60 TB60 TB 120TB120TB

Capacity of DiskCapacity of Disk 4 PB4 PB

Capacity of Tape driveCapacity of Tape drive 8 PB8 PB

OSOS Suse Linux 11Suse Linux 11

HaeOn

HaeDam

Computing System for Operation(20 Cabinets, 379Tflop/s)

Computing System for R&D and backup(20 Cabinets, 379Tflop/s)

HaeOn, HaeDam was ranked the 110th, 111th fastest supercomputer in the world (Nov. 2013)

Ref. ( http://www.top500.org )

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E-ASIA•UM 12kmL70 / WRF 10kmL40• Target Length 87hrs/72hrs (6 hourly)• Initialization : 4DVAR / 3DVAR

GLOBAL• Resolution N512L70 (UM) (~25km / top = 80km)• Target Length 288hrs (00/12UTC) 87hrs (06/18UTC)• Initialization : Hybrid Ensemble 4DVAR

Global EPS• Resolution N320L70 (UM) (~40km/ top =80km)• Target Length 288hrs• IC : GDAPS• # of Members : 24• Perturbation : ETKF, RP, SKEB2

LOCAL• Resolution 1.5kmL70 (UM) (744928 / top =39km)• Target Length 36hrs• Initialization : 3DVAR

Operational NWP SystemsOperational NWP Systems

6

ModelModel ResolutionResolution Target Target LengthLength Main targetMain target

UM (Global)N512(25km) L70

12 days87hours(06,18)

Medium-range

N320 L70 M24 12 days Medium-range (EPS)

UM (E.Asia) 12km L70 87 hours Short-range

WRF (E.Asia) 10km L40 87 hours Short-range

UM (Korea) 1.5km L70 36 hours Very short-range

KLAPS (Korea) 5km 12 hours Very short-range

Wave Watch III

55km 12days Global

8km 87 hours Northeast Asia

1km 72 hours Coastal

ADAM (Dust & Aerosol)

30km 72 hours Asia dust

DBAR (Typhoon) 35km 72 hours Track

Tide/Storm Surge 9km 87 hours Northeast Asia

GlobalGlobalGlobalGlobal

E-AsiaE-AsiaE-AsiaE-Asia

LocalLocalLocalLocal

App.App.& &

Stat.Stat.

App.App.& &

Stat.Stat.

Operational NWP Models (’13.6~)Operational NWP Models (’13.6~)

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Update plans for NWP systemUpdate plans for NWP system

Year 2014 2015 2016 2017

computer 3rd 3rd to 4th 4th

Global

Deterministic

25km 70L Hybrid 4dVar

60km inner loop

17km70L Hybrid 4dVar

40km DA inner loop

Global

Ensemble

40km 70L 24M 6 hour cycle

25km 70L 24M6 hour cycle

Local

(LDAPS)

Deterministic

1.5km 70L 3dVar(3hr)

3km inner loop

1.5km 70L 4dVar(1hr)

3km inner loop

1.5km 70L Hybrid

4dVar(1hr)3km inner loop

1km 70L Hybrid

4dvar(1hr) 2km inner loop

Local

(LDAPS)

Ensemble

3km 70L 12M(Semi operation run)

3km 70L 12M(Official operation

run)

3km 70L 12M 1.5km 70L 24M

UndeterminedCoupling with ocean wave, Asian dust model with global modelUndeterminedCoupling with ocean wave, Asian dust model with global model

Update NWP system in 2013Update NWP system in 2013

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NWP Changes in 2013NWP Changes in 2013

Global Data Assimilation and Prediction Syste (N512L70) Version changes

UM : vn7.7 → vn7.9 VAR/OPS : vn27.2 →vn29.2 SURF: vn18.2 → vn18.5

Major change 4dVar → Hybrid Ensemble 4dVar Physics package upgrade (PS26 → PS28)

Use Climatological Aerosols Data Set Add COMS CSR data

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NWP Changes in 2013NWP Changes in 2013

Regional(East Asia) Data Assimilation and Prediction System(12kmL70) UM : vn7.7 → vn7.9 Physics package: PS27 → PS28 SURF: vn18.5 Ancillary Data Set update (CAP6.6 → CAP7.7)

New soil hydraulic properties – wilting and critical points New soil thermal conductivity

Local(Korea) Data Assimilation and Prediction System(1.5kmL70) UM : vn7.9 (1.5km L70 ) Physics package : PS27 → PS28 OPS : vn27.2 / VAR : vn27.2 → vn29.2 SURF: vn18.3 → vn18.5 Use Aerosol effect for Visibility with domestic emission data Latent heat nudging using Radar Data

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Global Hybrid Ensemble 4DVARGlobal Hybrid Ensemble 4DVAR

9h 9h 288h288h

BERR

ERLY LATELATE ERLY LATELATE ERLY LATELATE ERLY LATELATE

ERLY ERLY(12d)

ERLY ERLY(12d)

GDAPS

EPS

06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC

Initial T+0Obs

• Changes in EPS : 2 times daily (00/12UTC) → 4 times daily (9 hours forecast at

06/18UTC)

• Use Hybrid background-error covariance (Climatological covariance :

Ensemble covariance = 1.0 : 0.3) to reflect “Error of the day”

Background

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AVG

Verification against Observation / Improvement over Non-hybrid D.A. [%]

PositiveImpact

Verification Domain

Impact of Hybrid Ensemble 4DVARImpact of Hybrid Ensemble 4DVAR

July~August 2012

AVG

Verification Domain

December 2012

Verification against ECMWF Analysis (Z500) / Improvement over Non-hybrid D.A. [%]

July~August 2012 December 2012

NH TR SH NML ASIA EASIA AVG NH TR SH NML ASIA EASIA AVG

PositiveImpact

Verification Domain Verification Domain

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Radiative Effect of Aerosol (Climatology)Radiative Effect of Aerosol (Climatology)

Summer Continental Warm Bias

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GSM T213GSM T106 GSM T426 UM N320Model : UM N512

3DOI 3dVar1dVar(TOVS)

FGAT 4dVarD. A. : Hybrid 4dVar

Operational Global Model PerformanceOperational Global Model Performance

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The effect of New soil hydraulic propertiesThe effect of New soil hydraulic properties

• The corrected soil hydraulic properties data set added to RDAPS(12kmL70).

• The new soil properties shows

wilting, critical point ↑ → soil moisture ↑ → surface temperature ↓

• Decreased the warm bias in the RDAPS for winter time

OLD

NEW

Comparison of the soil properties

local time

New soil properties

Old soil properties

Day Night

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Visibility withVisibility with Murk Aerosols (LDAPS)Murk Aerosols (LDAPS)

• Aerosol emission of CAPSS1 at NIER2

Resolution : 1km X 1km [ kg/year/km2 ] Type : NOx, SOx, VOC Coverage : South Korea1 CAPSS : Clean Air Policy Support System2 NIER : National Institute of Environmental Research

• INTEX-B (NASA/2006) Resolution : 0.5o0.5o

Type : NOx, SOx, VOC Coverage : East Aisa

• Improved underestimation visibility for 1~5km

NEW

Relative Humidity

2

00*

)31(

000

ln

p

mm

rr

p

mm

Nair

vis

• : visual contrast(=0.05)• air : scattering coefficient of clear air(=1.0E-5)• r* : radius of total water concentration• m : concentration of murk aerosol - L_MURK=F : 10 [g/kg] - L_MURK=T : 0.1~200 [g/kg]

Aerosols effect

OLD

VisibilityMurk Aerosols

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Plan for the new HPC introductionPlan for the new HPC introduction

HPC Plans

- Installation of 1st stage system : ‘14 Q4

- Installation of final stage system : ‘15 Q4

- Expacted Rpeak : ~10PFlops (current HPC : 0.75PFlops)

NWP PlansNWP system ‘15~’16 ‘17~’18

Global (Deterministic) ~17km ~12km

Global (EPS) ~25km ~17km

Local (Deterministic/EPS) 1.5~4km ~1km

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Future Plans on NWP systemFuture Plans on NWP system

Model

Data assimilation

• Implementation of New Dynamical Core (ENDGame) (’15)

• Increasing resolution of the global model(Ocean wave, dust)

• Development of Probabilistic (Ensemble) NWP Systems

• A-O coupling for NWP (extended medium-range prediction)

• Development / Implementation of new D.A. technique

- Approach to use Ensemble information in D.A.

• Use of additional observation data

- CSR, Ground GPS, observation from new satellites

• Ocean D.A ( For Seasonal and extended range (30 days)).

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Seamless Prediction ApproachSeamless Prediction Approach

Complexity

1day 3days 10days 1month 3months >year

1km

10km

100kmAtmos.(+Sfc.)

A-O Coupling

Earth System

Resolution

Target LengthNWP

GAP

Seasonal PredictionClimate Research

LDAPSRDAPS

GDAPS

Global EPS

Joint Seasonal Prediction System

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Complexity

1day 3days 10days 1month 3months >year

1km

10km

100kmAtmos.(+Sfc.)

A-O Coupling

Earth System

Resolution

Target LengthNWP

Climate ResearchSeasonal Prediction

Extension of target length using coupled NWP system and ensemble approach

Spatio-temporally higher resolution prediction

Seamless Prediction ApproachSeamless Prediction Approach

N320(~40km) UM (M24 EPS) + NEMO(0.25deg)30-day prediction trial

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Regional & Convective Scale ModellingRegional & Convective Scale Modelling

Incheon Seoul

IncheonInt’l AirportUM 1kmL70 for 17th Asian Game (Incheon, 2014)

- UM vn7.9 → vn8.2 / 360(E-W)x324(N-S) - Hourly 3DVAR (2km inner loop) cycle / FGAT → 4DVAR? - LBC from LDAPS model - T+12H

Local Ensemble & DA research

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LENSLENS

2,013 km2,013 km

1,8

69

1,8

69

kmkm

• The integration area covers the Korean peninsula including oceans and parts of adjacent countries such as China and Japan.

• About 3km horizontal grid spacing and 70 vertical levels of top 40km altitude are employed.

• Simple downscaling of global Ensemble prediction system (N400L70, ~32km) will be adapted for IC and BC.

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Resolution & Num. of membersResolution & Num. of members

Preliminary FSS score(Le Duc et al., 2013) result from 3 rainfall cases.

[1.0mm][0.1mm]

Spatial scale (neighborhood size)

3km 16 member shows best 3km 12 member selected to trial accounting

computer resources and stable performance

(3km 16) > (3km 12) > (2km 12) ~ (2km 16) > (2km 8) > (3km 8) > (1.5km 16) ~ (1.5km 12) > (1.5km 8)

(3km 8) > (3km 12) > (2km 12) ~ (2km 8) ~ (3km 16) > (2km 16) > (1.5km 12) ~ (1.5km 16) > (1.5km 8)

Spatial scale (neighborhood size)

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T+48

Trial schedule of LENSTrial schedule of LENS

9h 9h288h288h

BG_ERRBG_ERRss

ERLY LATELATE ERLY LATELATE ERLY LATELATE ERLY LATELATE

ERLY(12d)

ERLYERLY(12d)

ERLY

GDAPSGDAPS

EPSGEPSG

00 00 UTCUTC

06 06 UTCUTC

12 12 UTCUTC

18 18 UTCUTC

InitialInitial T+0T+0Obs.Obs.

BackgroundBackground

• Global ensemble prediction system(EPSG) provides perturbed initial and boundary conditions for LENS at T+3 forecast.

03UTC

Pert. IC (T+3)Pert. IC (T+3) Pert. BCPert. BC

T+4815UTC

Pert. IC (T+3)Pert. IC (T+3) Pert. BCPert. BC

12~24 members12~24 membersfor 2 days forecastfor 2 days forecast

LENSLENS

Hybrid Hybrid Ensemble Ensemble and 4dVarand 4dVar

DownscalingDownscaling

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Application of Ensemble DA Application of Ensemble DA LENS observation sensitivity using LETKF

Sonde Surface Aircraft

N. OBS 8192 15415 1390

Sensitivity 4616.63 145.3896 37740.66

Sensitivity/number

0.5634 0.009432 2.715155

Forecast error contribution

18428.88 18188.11 257.9684

1 ( )

nObs

n n

J

0v

J 0v

1

( )( )

nObs

nn n

J

0

0

vv

2012080612

:Forecast error contribution:N Obs:Sensitivity

Spin-up 2012. 08. 03. 12 UTC ~ 2012. 08. 04. 12 UTC

experiment 2012. 08. 05. 00 UTC ~ 2012. 08. 06. 12 UTC(8 cases)

Ocean DA and forecasting

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Short-range global ocean forecasting

Seasonal prediction in KMA (GloSea-5) ocean initial fields

Improvement of regional ocean forecasting in KMA lateral condition

Objective (application in KMA)

History

Introduction of NEMO-CICE and NEMOVAR from UK Met Office (2012.7)

- Pre-operational version of codes

• Short-range hindcast simulation

- start from 2010/06/10 (currently, running at 2010/08/ )

- using QCed obs. and NWP fluxes of UKMO

•Development of pre-processing system (2013.1~12.)

- Observations: gathering observations and quality control (NEMOQC)

- Fluxes: extraction from KMA NWP and interpolation to model

(ORCA025)

Purpose and statusPurpose and status

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Hindcast ResultsHindcast Results

29

10/Jun/2010 ~ 15/Jun/2010 Comparison: SSH

30

Implementation of NEMO/NEMOVAR at KMA is on going. Next year, works on the post-processing will be conducted we will move a pre-operational this Year.

The assessment will also include inter-comparison with other reanalysis data, and comparison to independent data (e.g., surface drifter) The work on diagnosis of the NEMO/NEMOVAR will be started.

KMA has a plan to replace a current regional ocean model (ROMS) by regional-NEMO/NEMOVAR system. (northwestern Pacific Ocean with 1/12 deg.)

Summary & PlanSummary & Plan

Development at KIAPS

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3D global hydrostatic model3D global hydrostatic modelCubed Sphere horizontal grid (CAM-SE) Lorenz grid hybrid / Finite difference in vertical(70 layers)ne30np4(~ 1o×1o)Plug-in Selected physics modules & dynamic core in own model frameworkDevelop suitable physics(convection, PBL) around 10 km resolution

Jan. 2012 mean zonal wind

Jan. 2012 mean precipitation

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Developing Non-hydrostatic dynamic coreDeveloping Non-hydrostatic dynamic core

• Develop 2-D slice model to test compressible non-hydrostatic equations

• Develop 3-D in 2014(IMEX, CG in horizontal, FE in vertical)

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Data assimilationData assimilation• Develop basic components for DA

– Ensemble DA using LETKF on cubed sphere grid– Minimization & variable conversion using spectral element method for

variation method– Developing 4DEnVar following 5 years using developed components– Surface, sonde, AMSU-A, IASI, AIRS data processing developed

U V

T q

Result from OSSE exp. Using Ensemble DA

No DA

Sonde

Sonde+AIRS