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S. 1

Joint Meeting of the 30th Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains and the 41st Session

of the Intergovernmental Group on Rice

Rome 10-11 February 2004

CCP: GR-RI 04/CRS.5

Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption

patterns changing?

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S. 2

• Introduction, Data and Methods

• Changes in dietary structures

• Importance of Cereals, Roots and Tubers,

Bananas and Plantains (CRBP) in daily diets

• Convergence and diversification in global CRBP

consumption patterns

• The main forces driving change

• Policy Implications

O U T L I N E

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S. 3

Comparison of Dietary Structures in Developed …

Developed Countries

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1961/63 1971/73 1981/83 1991/93 1999/01

Cal

orie

Sh

are

O ther Food

Sugar

O ils and Fats

Meat and Fish

Dairy

CRBP

2975 3150 3212 3223 3285calories >

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S. 4

... and Developing Countries

- Structures diverse, but for both groups strong growth in oils and livestock products …however, CRBP foods in decline

Developing Countries

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1961/63 1971/73 1981/83 1991/93 1999/01

Cal

orie

Sh

are

O ther Food

Sugar

O ils and Fats

Meat and Fish

Dairy

CRBP

1957 2122 2375 2541 2675calories >

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S. 5

Variation in Dietary Patterns

- Consumption patterns in South and East Asian countries most variable. Least variable in developed countries – saturation?

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America and the Caribbean

North Africa and Near East

Oceania

East and South East Asia

South Asia

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

WORLD

Variation

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S. 6

Relationship Between Dietary Shares and Total Calorie Intake

- A 1% increase in calorie intake results in falls in dietary shares of CRBP (-0.74%) and pulses (-0.55)

Commodity Elasticity (Responsiveness)

CRBP -0.743

Dairy 0.713

Fruit and Vegetables 0.027

Meat and Fish 0.604

Oils and Fats 0.656

Pulses -0.546Sugar 0.695

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S. 7

Calorie Intake & Dietary Shares of CRBP staples in Developing Countries

Total Calories

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

CRBP ShareCal

orie

s

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

Shar

e

- Since the 1970s CRBP shares in developing countries have fallen rapidly…

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S. 8

Calorie Intake & Dietary Shares of CRBP staples in Developed Countries

Total Calories

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

CRBP Share

Cal

orie

s

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Shar

e

- …but remain well above developed country shareswhich have stabilized

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S. 9

Declines in Total Dietary Shares of CRBP Foods: 5% or more

- CRBP staples remain important food security crops, especially Africa

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S. 10

Declines in Total Dietary Shares of CRBP Foods: 10% or more

Have dietary shares of all CRBP products fallen?

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S. 11

Increases in Wheat Shares: 5% or more (1961-2001)

Wheat consumption has increased in many developing countries

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S. 12

Increases in Rice Shares: 5% or more (1961-2001)

Growth in rice consumption less pronounced and more regionally concentrated, esp. West Africa, Latin America, SE Asia

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S. 13

CRBP Structures: 1961/63

In the past, structures dominated by single CRBP foodstuffs – 6 distinct structures identified

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S. 14

CRBP Structures : 1999/2001

Now, structures diversified: dominated by wheat and rice. Evidence of convergence: 4 distinct structures identified. Handful of countries unchanged since 1961

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S. 15

Factors Driving CRBP Patterns

• URBANIZATION • INCOME • IMPORTS x• PREFERENCE SHIFTS ()• RELATIVE PRICES ??

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S. 16

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

• According to UN estimates, the world’s urban population is expected to increase by 70 percent over the next three decades:

Promote production of wheat and rice or accept increasing reliance on imports?

Promote processing of those CRBP products that have witnessed falling demand?