CES and LAUS: AdvancedCES and LAUS: Advanced

Current Employment Statistics

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

CES: CHANGES & DATA

• CODE STRUCTURE, SIC TO NAICS

• DATA REVISIONS

• MSA DEFINITIONS

• SAMPLE AND ESTIMATION METHODS

CES DATA

• INDUSTRY CODE CHANGES ARE SMOOTHED

• CES IS A TRUE TIME SERIES

• THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORICAL RECONSTRUCTION OF NAICS DATA BACK TO 1990

CES DATA: REVISIONS

• CES DATA IS REVISED MONTHLY (ONCE) AND ANNUALY (TWICE)

• THE MONTHLY REVISION, BASED ON A MORE COMPLETE SAMPLE COLLECTION, IS PUBLISHED WITH THE FOLLOWING MONTHS DATA RELEASE

CES DATA: REVISIONS

• IN THE ANNUAL BENCHMARK PROCESS THE PREVIOUS YEARS DATA IS REPLACED BY ADJUSTED QCEW (TAX RECORD) DATA THROUGH THE BENCHMARK MONTH AND THE BALANCE OF THE YEAR IS

RE-ESTIMATED

• AT THE SAME TIME, THE DATA FOR THE SECOND YEAR PREVIOUS IS COMPLETELY REPLACED BY ADJUSTED QCEW DATA

MSA CHANGES: COLORADO SPRINGS

Present Additions

MSA CHANGES: DENVER

PRESENT ADDITIONS

CES: SAMPLING

• THE BASIC SAMPLE UNIT IS THE UEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE (UI) ACCOUNT

• MULTIPLE WORKPLACE ENITIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE UI ACCOUNT

• THERE ARE ADJUSTMENTS FOR BIRTH/DEATH

CES: SAMPLING

• CES HAS CHANGED SAMPLING AND ESTIMATION METHODS.

• OLD METHOD: QUOTA NON-RESPONSE PROBLEMS WERE ADDRESSED BY FREE

SUBSTITUTION, INTRODUCING BIAS.

BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT WAS MULTIPLICTIVE.

CES: SAMPLING

• NEW METHOD: PROBABILITYRANDOM SAMPLE SELECTION.

WEIGHTED ESTIMATORS CAN BE USED.

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS CAN BE ESTABLISHED.

IMPROVED MONITORING OF ACTUAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS.

CES: MODEL

• OLD METHOD: CURRENT LINK RELATIVE L = aec/aepWhere: aec = all employment for current

month's current matched sample aep = total ae for previous month's current

matched sample.

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE

• A SAMPLE OF 3 MEMBERS WITH DIFFERENT EMPLOYMENT SIZES:COMPANY ‘x’ HAS 10 WORKERS THIS MONTH,

LAST MONTH 9. THERE ARE 10 COMPANIES THIS SIZE IN THE STATE

COMPANY ‘y’ HAS 100 NOW, 99 LAST MONTH. THERE ARE 5 THIS SIZE

COMPANY ‘z’ HAS 500 BOTH MONTHS. IT’S THE ONLY COMPANY THIS SIZE

THERE ARE 10,000 EMPLOYEES IN THE INDUSTRY STATEWIDE

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE OLD

• THE CURRENT LINK WOULD BE:L = ( x + y + z )now/(x + y + z)last

L = (10 + 100 + 500) / (9 + 99 + 500)

L = 1.0033

LINK IS STABLIZED BY COMPANY z, THE ONLY COMPANY ITS SIZE

CES: MODEL

• OLD MODEL - APPLY LINK TO GET THE EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATE:

• AEc = (L)(Fc) (AEp)Where: AEc = AE estimate for current month AEp = AE estimate for previous month L = current link relative

Fc = bias adjustment factor for current month

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE OLD

• LET THE AEp = 10,000• LET THE ADJUSTMENT FOR BIAS, Fc = 1.001• THE ESTIMATE WOULD BE:

AEc = (L)(Fc)(AEp)AEc = (1.0033)(1.001)(10,000)AEc = 1043THE BIAS ADJUSTMENT INTERACTS WITH THE

LINK

CES: MODEL

• NEW MODEL; WEIGHTED LINK RELATIVE AEc = AEp ((Σ(w * aec )/(Σ(w*aep)) + (BIRTH/DEATH

FACTOR)WHERE w IS THE WEIGHT OF A INDIVIDUAL

SAMPLE MEMBER aec IS THAT MEMBER’S CURRENT EMPLOYMENT

aep IS THE PREVIOUS MONTHS EMPLOYMENT

THE B/D FACTOR IS A SEPARATE BLS ESTIMATE

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW

• USING THE SAME COMPANIES, AND A B/D FACTOR OF 10THE WEIGHTS ARE DETERMINED BY THE

NUMBER OF COMPANIES OF A GIVEN SIZE IN THE INDUSTRY BEING SAMPLED

COMPANY x HAS WEIGHT, w = 10COMPANY y HAS w = 5COMPANY z HAS w = 1

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW

• USING THE SAME DATA AS IN THE OLD EXAMPLE THE NEW ESTIMATE IS:AEc = AEp ((Σ(w * aec )/(Σ(w*aep)) + (BIRTH/DEATH

FACTOR)AEc = 10,000 (((10 * 10) + (5 * 100) + (1 * 500))/((10 *

9) + (5 * 99) + (1 * 500))) + 10AEc = 10,000 * 1.0138 + 10AEc = 10138 + 10 = 10148

CES: MODEL EXAMPLE NEW vs OLD

• THE OLD ESTIMATE WAS 10,043• THE NEW MODEL ESTIMATE IS 10,148• THE DIFFERENCE IS THE IMPACT OF

SMALLER BUSINESS ON THE LINK• IF THE ESTIMATING CELL HAS LARGER

EMPLOYMENT OR A GREATER LINK, THE OLD BIAS ADJUSTMENT FACTOR HAS A LARGER IMPACT

CES: MODEL

• WHY THE CHANGES? THE NEW SAMPLE IS MORE REPRESENATIVE

AND RESPONSIVE

THE WEIGHTED SAMPLE GIVES MORE MODEL IMPACT TO SMALL BUSINESS

THE BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT IS ADDITIVE SO ITS NOT SCALED TO MONTHLY RESULT

CES DATA LIMITATIONS

• Limited by area• Limited by industry detail• The results are designed to track direction as the

primary item of interest• The absolute measure of level is the secondary

item of interest, but this is addressed by Benchmarking the data

• No demographic data is published