cfl, specialty cfl, and cfl fixture ues measures

CFL, Specialty CFL, and CFL FixtureUES Measures

Regional Technical ForumOctober 15, 2013

2

Measure Overview• Current Category: UES

• Current Status: Proven

• Current Sunset Date: CFLs and Fixtures - December, 2013Specialty CFLs – January, 2014

• Reason for Update/Review: Sunset dates approaching

• Subcommittee Review: No

3

Staff Highlighted Issues• Baseline definition –

– The baseline has become much more efficient• Currently: incandescent baseline, no EISA or Incandescent Reflector Lamp (IRL) federal standards adjustment• Proposed: RBSA mix of CFL/inc/hal, with EISA and IRL adjustments

• Storage rate – – We know stored bulbs eventually get installed. – How do we account for this?

• Removal rate – – Current estimates are with respect to all lamps ever removed– Some of this would be removal at end-of-life, which is included in EUL

• Categorization – – How categorizations from different data sources are mapped to one another– Granularity of category definitions

• Hard-wired fixtures – – Less certainty on how to characterize the baseline– Fixture wattage can vary– Propose as Small Saver, based on what we do know about these fixtures from RBSA

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Current and

Proposed Residential

Lighting Measures

Current CFL Fixture Current CFL Bulb Current Specialty CFL Current LEDProposed CFL, CFL Fixture & Specialty CFL

Hours of Use

Baseline definition Incandescent fixture

Baseline lamp wattage KEMA for CPUC 2010RBSA, by tech type, lamp type, room type

RBSA, by tech type, lamp type, room type

EE lamp wattage BPA Simple Steps program dataEnergyStar product list BPA Simple Steps program data

Delivery MechanismsCost based on retail, but measures are specified by room type

Retail Directi InstallNEEA Socket Direct Mail

RetailDirect Install Direct Mail (now sunsetted)

RetailDirect InstallMail-by-Request, Give-Away

RetailDirect InstallMail-by-RequestUnsolicited-MailingGive-AwayNEEA Socket Count (no fixtures)

EE CostChange A Light program data and internet research

PSE 2013 program data BPA Simple Steps program data

Baseline CostShelf stock survey of WA and OR, 2008 (Navigant consulting)

Inc/Hal - 2013 RTF staff shelf survey, CFL - ETO shelf survey

Inc/Hal - ETO 2012-2013 Shelf SurveyCFL - BPA Simple Steps program data

Lifetime 15 years (RTF decision)[8,000 hours] / [hours per year (by room type)]

CFL - [10,000 hours] * [derating for on/off switching] / [hours per year (by room type)]

Cold Cathode CFL - [25,000 hours] * [derating for on/off switching] / [hours per year (by room type)]

Ceiling at 12 years

CFL - [10,000 hours] * [derating for on/off switching] / [hours per year (by room type)]

Cold Cathode CFL - [25,000 hours] * [derating for on/off switching] / [hours per year (by room type)]

Eligibility

Measure Combinations12 = [9 space types] + [any interior] + [any exterior] + [any]

Retail and Direct Mail - 1 each = [any]

DI and NEEA Socket Count - 12 each = [9 space types] + [any interior] + [any exterior] + [any]

Retail and Direct Install - 10 each = [9 lamp types] + [any]

Direct Mail - 1 = [any]

Retail/MbR/GA - 18 each = [3 lamp type] x [6 lumen bins]

Direct Install - 756 = [14 room type] x [3 tech type] x [3 lamp type] x [6 lumen bins]

Retail/MbR/GA/Unsolicited Mail - 60 each = [10 lamp type] x [6 lumen bins]

Direct Install - 600 = [5 room type groups] x [2 tech type] x [10 lamp type] x [6 lumen bins]

KEMA & DOE, by room type

Incandescent lamp RBSA observed mix of inc/hal/CFL

Meets Energy Star criteria and wattage greater than 5 Watts. Meets Energy Star criteria.

Data Source: PECI Baseline survey for LiteWise and NEEA, MPER#2 on Energy Star Fixtures (Report # E99-035).

KEMA for CPUC 2010 (assumes 2 lamps per fixture)

KEMA for CPUC 2010

NWPCC 6th Plan Assumptions

KEMA for CPUC 2010, by room type

5

Delivery Mechanisms

• CFL and Specialty CFL Lamps– Retail– Direct Install– Mail by Request– Unsolicited Mailing – Limit to 4 lamps per customer– Give Away– NEEA Socket Count

• CFL Fixtures– Retail– [Direct Install was not considered, but could be if there is interest]

6

Changes from Current to Proposed Measures

• Changes have been made to– Utilize detailed data in RBSA and other recent datasets

• Savings vary by room type (direct install only) and by lumen level– Address baseline mix of incandescent/halogen/CFL lamps (previously

incandescent baseline)– Remain consistent with the Residential LED analysis (RTF decision:

August 2013)

http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2013/08/

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Changes from Current to Proposed Measures

• Key Changes:– Baseline now includes CFLs- moving from an incandescent baseline

to an EISA/IRL-adjusted RBSA baseline– More granularity in measures

• Previously not disaggregated by wattage, now in six lumen bins• Direct install now broken out by five space type group and by replaced

technology type (incandescent or halogen) – Cost data now from recent, rigorous regional efforts (ETO Shelf

Survey and Simple Steps CFL program)– CFL and Specialty CFL ProCost workbooks consolidated – previously

two separate workbooks, proposed as one.– Baseline data analysis (RBSA-based) done in separate workbook that

could be used across residential lighting measures.

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Data Sources

• 2011 Residential Building Stock Assessment (RBSA)– baseline lighting characteristics – storage rate

• 2012-2013 ETO Lighting Shelf Survey – incandescent and halogen prices, by lamp type and lumens

• 2012,2013 Simple Steps program data – CFL prices and wattages by lamp type and lumens

• Energy Star Qualified product list – CFL efficacy and rated lifetime

• 2012-2013 NEEA Northwest Residential Lighting Market Tracking Study – removal rate

• Corina Jump, et al., 2008 “Welcome to the Dark Side: The Effect of Switching on CFL Measure Life”, 2008 ACEEE Summer Study– CFL lifetime derating by room type

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TechType Lumen Bin LampType RoomTypeIncandescent 0 to 249 lumens 3-Way CFL BathroomHalogen 250 to 369 lumens 3-Way Incandescent BedroomCompact Fluorescent 370 to 664 lumens A shape bulb Closet

665 to 1014 lumens Circline (Screw Base) Dining Room1015 to 1439 lumens Clear Exterior1440 to 2019 lumens Colored Family Room2020 to 2600 lumens Decorative Garage2601 to 99999 lumens Flood Hall

Globe KitchenHeat Lamp Laundry RoomMini base Living RoomMR Master BedroomOther OfficePAR OtherPin baseQuartz TubeReflectorStandard A LampStraight TubeTwist

Methodology – Baseline Determination• RBSA – Categorize all records by:

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Methodology – Baseline Determination• For each RBSA record, assign:

– EISA adjusted wattage (based on lamp category, wattage)

– hours of use, by room type (KEMA, DOE)

– lamp lifetime, by lamp category. • CFLs lifetimes are derated as a function of room type.

– baseline lamp cost, by lamp category and lumen bin. • Incandescent and halogen costs are from the ETO shelf survey,

• CFL costs are from BPA Simple Steps program database (includes additional utilities that contract with Fluid).

– room type group, by room type. • This collapses the number of room types from 15 to 5, while preserving

most detail of HOU and space conditioning.

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RTF Lamp Types Lamp Type Group RBSA (Baseline)

RBSA TechTypes per LampType

ETO Shelf Survey (incandescent and halogen costs)

Simple Steps (CFL cost and EE wattage)

Heat Lamp IncQuartz Tube HalMR HalPin base CFL [not used]3-Way CFL CFL 3-Way3-Way Incandescent Inc A-Lamp

CC Candelabra - decorative Decorative Inc, CFL Candelabra CandelabraCC Candelabra - primary Mini base Inc, CFL Candelabra CandelabraCFL Candelabra and Torpedo

A shape bulb CFL General PurposeCircline (Screw Base) CFL General PurposeClear Inc A-LampColored Inc A-LampOther Inc, Hal, CFL A-Lamp General PurposeStandard A Lamp Inc A-LampStraight Tube CFL General PurposeTwist CFL General Purpose

Globe Globe Globe Inc, CFL Globe GlobeOutdoor Flood CFL ReflectorReflector PAR Hal ReflectorDimmable Reflector Reflector Inc, CFL Reflector Reflector

Three-Way

Decorative and Mini-Base

General Purpose and Dimmable

Reflectors and Outdoor

[none]

[Used for the CFL hard-wired fixture measure]

Not included in CFL Analysis

Three-Way


• Map RBSA to ETO and Simple Steps data for baseline costs.

• Map RTF to RBSA to characterize baseline for each measure.

Methodology – Baseline Determination

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Three-Way




[none]



Three-Way


• For example, to assign costs to Decorative lamps in RBSA, use ETO incandescent Candelabra and Simple Steps CFL Candelabra.


13









Three-Way




[none]



Three-Way


• For example, to determine the baseline for a CFL Reflector measure, average the characteristics of the RBSA Flood, PAR, and Reflector lamp types.


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Methodology – Baseline Determination• Group room types based on hours of operation and space

conditioning

DOE 2010KEMA 2010

Suggested Value

Exterior 2.6 3.8 3.8 Exterior

Kitchen 2.3 2.4 2.4Family Room 2 2.3 2.3Living Room 2 2.3 2.3Garage 1.5 1.8 1.8Basement/Utility Room 1.6 1.6Dining room 1.9 1.7 1.7Bedroom 1.6 1.5 1.5Laundry Room 1.5 1.5Master Bedroom 1.6 1.5 1.5Other 1 1.5 1.5Closet 1.4 1.4Bathroom 1.6 1.3 1.3Hall 1.5 1.3 1.3Office 1.8 1.3 1.3

Hours of UseRoom Type

Room Type Group

High-use interior

Garage and Basement

Low-use interior

Moderate use interior

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• Consider all possible combinations of categories

– For direct install, this is the combination of

• baseline technology type

• room type group

• lamp type

• lumen bin

– For all other delivery mechanisms, this is the combination of

• lamp type

• lumen bin


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• For each combination of categories

– Determine the total regional weight of the category.

• The is the product of the number of lamps per fixture, number of fixtures per room, and the site survey weight of each record (i.e. how many bulbs each record represents)

– Determine the weighted average

• Baseline EISA adjusted wattage

• HOU

• Lifetime

• HVAC interaction applicability (0% for “exterior” and “garage” room types, 100% for all other room types)

• Baseline lamp cost


17• Excludes lamps less than 250 lumens and greater than 2600 lumens

Methodology – Baseline Characterization


Methodology – Baseline Characterization


Methodology – Baseline CharacterizationMore blue implies larger reduction in baseline wattage

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Accounting for Storage Rate• To date, the RTF has not counted savings for energy efficient

equipment that is installed later on.• But there is evidence that most CFLs eventually get installed,

probably within a few years of purchase or receipt.• How should the RTF account for stored-but-eventually-used

products?

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Storage Rate – Lifetime Guidelines1.2.2. Measure Lifetime• Measure lifetime is defined as the median number of years during which at

least half the deliveries of a measure are in place and operable, i.e., produce savings. Measure lifetime should not be confused with a measure’s sunset date, which is the period during which a measure’s savings estimation method is RTF-approved.

2.3.1. Factors Affecting Lifetime• Many factors may have a substantial impact on measure lifetime. All

substantial factors should be considered in the estimation. A factor is substantial if it would increase or decrease the measure lifetime by at least 20%.

• Factors that may be relevant to measure lifetime include, but are not limited to, the following.– Program delivery method. Measures directly installed may last longer than measures

delivered via mail for self-install, because self-installers may be less skilled and may not install according to manufacturer expectations, such as appropriate placement.

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Storage Rate – CFL Failure

• Lamps installed right away (e.g., direct install)

Source: Review of Massachusetts tracking data. Lynn Hoefgen et al., 2013, “Study It ‘til You’re Sick of It: CFL Research as an Example of Other Efficiency Markets”, 2013 International Energy Program Evaluation Conference.

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• But not all retail lamps get installed right away

Assumes that 24% of lamps are installed at time of receipt, and 8% of lamps are installed in each of the subsequent 3 years.

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• But not all retail lamps get installed right awayNote:1) Installation rate

increases in first few years

2) But some lamps installed in the first couple of years are already failing

3) The lifetime of the retail measure (6.1) is longer than that of the direct install measure (5.5).

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Storage Rate – Savings GuidelinesRoadmap 1.3.2. Savings• “Savings is defined as the difference in energy

use between the baseline (see section 3.2) and post (after measure delivery) periods, which is caused by the delivery of a measure.”– Not clear on how to specify savings with unusual

decay functions.– Historically, RTF has used first year savings, except

for Last Measure In (LMI) measures.

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Storage Rate – Questions• What should the savings value represent?

– First year savings?– Maximum savings before end of EUL?– Average savings from measure start until death of last unit?– Something else?

• The answer to this should inform how to handle storage rates for CFLs, where we – know the patterns of failure overtime, and – think we know when stored bulbs eventually get used

• Staff proposal: – Use first year savings– Adjust the measure EUL to reflect [Lamp EUL]/(1 - [Storage Rate])

• E.g., for a lame EUL of 5 years and a storage rate of 10%, the measure EUL would be 5.5 years– This gets the first year savings correct and lifetime savings correct– Use failure and installation patterns to estimate median time to 50% installation. This complies with the

Guidelines.– Guidelines Issue: This does not lead to the correct lifetime savings (savings x EUL).

• Staff also received a proposal to disregard storage rate because the stored lamps tend to get installed within a few years. This has been discussed at previous RTF meetings.

[RTF decision on how to account for storage rate in savings and lifetime]

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Removal Rate• Current measures use a removal rate of 4%

– Based on NEEA Energy Star Consumer Products Program Market Progress Evaluation Report (2007).

– Similar findings in NEEA 2012-2013 Northwest Residential Lighting Market Tracking Study

• This is the percentage of lamps “ever acquired” that have been removed.– Some of this removal would be end-of-life removal– This is already accounted for in the lifetime estimate

• Staff Proposal – Assume ½ of removal is before failure– This would be a 2% removal rate– This is a judgment call – We don’t have the empirical data to differentiate between

pre-failure removal and post-failure removal.

[RTF decision on what value to use for removal rate]

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Take-back Rate• Set to 0% by RTF in April, 2010 for Specialty CFLs. Later adjusted for CFLs.

– Lack of quantitative evidence of this phenomenon• Meta-study as part of NEEA residential lighting market tracking study

identifies several articles discussing this phenomenon and estimating its impact:– Report recommends using a value of 5%– Citations not complete – RTF staff would need to follow up with authors Source: DNV KEMA, 2013, "2012-2013 Northwest Residential Lighting Market Tracking Study", for NEEAhttp://neea.org/docs/default-source/reports/2012-2013-northwest-residential-lighting-market-tracking-study.pdf?sfvrsn=10– Report implies that citations are qualitative in nature

• Staff proposal– Continue to use 0% take-back value.

[RTF decision on how to account for storage rate in savings and lifetime]

http://neea.org/docs/default-source/reports/2012-2013-northwest-residential-lighting-market-tracking-study.pdf?sfvrsn=10



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Categorization• Analysis conducted at most granular level feasible.

– Group parameters together only as much as needed to make the number of records sufficiently large and to keep the workbooks running.

• Staff did not include groupings in the analysis because there are too many possibilities – workbook explosion

• Guidelines: Roadmap, Section 3.1 Measure Identifiers– “Measure identifiers define relatively homogenous applications of the measure

with respect to savings or the method used in estimating savings. In addition, separate applications of a measure may be defined in order in order to achieve homogeneity of measure costs or measure lifetime or the methods used to estimate cost or lifetime. The RTF will try to minimize the number of measure application, focusing on those identifiers that cause large differences in savings, but maintaining separate applications as needed in determining measure eligibility or reliably representing differences in cost, benefits or lifetime.”

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Categorization

• Staff Proposal– Results suggest that direct install incandescent and halogen

results can be combined (600 -> 300 DI measures)– Other dimensions cannot be completely collapsed because

of “large differences in savings”• What about coarser groupings (e.g. “any lumen bin”)?

– RTF staff would need a reliable estimate of the types and quantities of lamps in the coarser grouping.

[RTF decision on categorization]

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Hard-wired Fixtures• Baseline is uncertain – many screw-base fixtures may not

have a comparable pin-base fixture. Replacement candidates not identifiable from RBSA .

• RBSA does tell us about existing pin-base CFL hard-wired fixtures.– 49 records in RBSA

– Excludes table lamps, floor lamps, torchieres, and ceiling mounted fixtures (couldn’t differentiate LFs from CFLs)

Lamps per fixture 1 2 3 4 5 6number of records 37 5 1 4 1 1average watts per lamp 20 23 13 19 15 15average watts per fixture 20 45 39 74 75 90average lamps per fixtureaverage watts per fixture

1.629.7

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Hard-wired Fixtures• Simple Steps program activity (2012 and 2013)

suggests a lower average wattageWattage (per

fixture)Sales (# of fixtures)

18 1,36623 14226 424

Average fixture wattage

Total sales

20.1 1,932

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Hard-wired Fixtures• Proposal

– Small Saver • Simple Steps illustrates low volume of program activity

– Use Simple Steps average fixture wattage as the efficient case– Savings = [13.5W general purpose (GP) screw-base CFLs] x [20.1 / 13.5]– HOU = same as HOU for 13.5W GP CFL– Cost

• Retail - incremental cost of 13.5W GP CFLs x [20.1/ 13.5] • Direct Install (if RTF is interested) – Staff would need to estimate a fixture plus

lamp cost– Lifetime = 15 years

• This is the fixture lifetime – savings persist for the lifetime of the fixture

[RTF decision on Hard-wired Fixtures]

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Limitations of Analysis

• Retail measure assumes all lamps go to residential installations.

• There is evidence that about 15% of lamps may go to the commercial sector.– Reference: KEMA, December 2009, “Process Evaluation

of 2006-2008 PG&E Mass Markets Program Portfolio and CFL, Swimming Pool Market Characterizations”

– http://www.calmac.org/publications/PGE_Mass_Market_Report_FINAL.pdf

• Insufficient quantitative data to include this effect in the analysis

http://www.calmac.org/publications/PGE_Mass_Market_Report_FINAL.pdf

http://www.calmac.org/publications/PGE_Mass_Market_Report_FINAL.pdf

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Limitations of Analysis

• Efficacy of lamps (lumens/watt) is estimated for baseline lamps. As EISA-compliant products enter the market, this approach will be less accurate. – Wattage and technology type will not be sufficient

to estimate lumens.• E.g., Is a 40 watt incandescent a pre-EISA 40W lamp, or

a post-EISA 60W equivalent?

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Workbook

• [review workbook]

37

Review of Decisions• Storage Rate

– Staff recommendation - • Use first year savings• Estimate median time to failure from failure and installation rate estimates

• Removal Rate– Staff recommendation -

• 2% (assume 1/2 of removal is before failure)

• Takeback Rate– Staff recommendation -

• Keep it at 0%

• Categorization– Staff recommendation –

• Group DI incandescent and halogens

• Hard-wired Fixtures– Staff recommendation –

• Small saver as described in earlier slide

38

Decisions – General Purpose and Specialty CFL lamps

• “I _______ move to approve the updates to the General Purpose and Specialty CFL proven UES measures; – With the values for storage, removal, and

takeback rates as decided earlier in the presentation;

– With the categorizations as decided earlier in the presentation;

– and change the sunset date to January 2017.

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Decisions – CFL Fixtures• “I _______ move to approve the CFL Fixtures

UES measure; – Change the category to Small Saver;– With only a retail delivery mechanism;– With a savings value equal to the UES savings of a

800 lumen General Purpose (GP) CFL multiplied by the ratio of Simple Steps average fixture wattage to Simple Steps average 800 lumen GP CFL wattage (20.1 / 13.5);

– and change the sunset date to January 2017.”

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