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China Fertilizer Market Week April 2, 2013

Price Indicators

Note: FOB prices include export tax. FOT prices mean FOT ex‐factory or FOT ex‐warehouse prices.

News

RMB 170 Billion “Four Subsidies” from the Government This Year Sufficient Spring Plowing Fertilizer in 2013 A Ten‐year Low of Cotton Planting Area in China in 2013 China Lowered Refined Oil Prices Jiangxi to Have 11 Million Mu Edible Oil Crops MIIT Minister to Tolerate Some Overcapacity State Council: China to Add 400 Million Mu High‐Standard Farmland by 2020 Government Position on Popularization and Application of Formulated Fertilizers

Market Urea prices continue to drop / Ammonium sulfate prices start to move down / DAP markets remain unchanged / Sulfur trade is slow / NPK demand is not strong / MOP markets remain gloomy

Project China Salt Ammonia Unit in Hefei to Start Up at End of March Kingenta to Build 100,000 TPY Water Soluble Fertilizer Plant Xinghua Chemistry Invests in Ammonium Nitrate Relocation Progress of Tianzhu Fertilizer

Stories & Analysis

2013 Ammonium Nitrate Market Analysis H1 2013 Urea Supply and Demand Forecast

Price / Output Import / Export

Weekly Ex‐work Prices and Chart of Urea, AS, Ammonium Chloride, DAP, MAP, NPK Buy, Sell and Stock of Supply and Marketing Cooperative System Import, Export and Output during 2010‐2012 New Fertilizer Projects Update

2‐Apr 26‐Mar Trend 2‐Apr 26‐Mar Trend

Nitrogen Potash Urea FOB $/t 390‐395 390‐395 → MOP (60%) CFR $/t 400 400 →

Urea (G) FOT RMB/t 2110‐2160 2150‐2230 ↓ MOP (60%) FOT RMB/t 2680‐2720 2680‐2720 →

Amsul FOT RMB/t 960‐1280 960‐1280 → SOP (50%) FOT RMB/t 3100‐3200 3100‐3200 →NH4Cl (25%) FOT RMB/t 880‐920 880‐920 → NOP (46%) FOT RMB/t 5100 5100 →

Phosphate Sulfur (Imported) FOT RMB/t 1250‐1310 1260‐1350 ↓

DAP (64%) FOB $/t 480‐500 480‐500 → NPK (ex‐factory) MAP (11‐44‐0) FOT RMB/t 2300‐2350 2300‐2350 → NPK(15‐15‐15S) FOT RMB/t 2550‐2750 2550‐2750 →

TSP(46%) FOT RMB/t 2300‐2400 2300‐2400 → NPK(15‐15‐15Cl) FOT RMB/t 2350‐2500 2350‐2500 →

CFMW Publisher: Fertilizer Department, China National Chemical Information Center Director: Li CHEN Chief Editor: Lynn WANG Associate Chief Editor: Christina Ping CHEN Jianying SU Contributors: Frank GAO Tel: +86-10-6445-3812 Fax: +86-10-6443-7118 Email: [email protected] Address: 6th Floor, No.53 Xiaoguan Street Andingmenwai, Beijing, 100029, P.R.C All rights reserved. CNCIC Consultants accepts no liability for the content of this report, or for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information provided. No part of this publication may be reproduced, transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the copyright owner.

Volume 13 Number 12

April 2, 2013

Consulting Dept. CNCIC

Fax: +86 10 6443 7118

Tel: +86 10 6445 3812


News ○ RMB 170 Billion “Four Subsidies” from the Government This Year

According to a budget report, the central government will spend RMB 170.055 billion on a direct grain subsidy for farmers, a comprehensive subsidy for agricultural means of production, a fine livestock breeding subsidy, and a farm machinery purchase subsidy (hereinafter referred to as the “four subsidies”), including RMB 15.1 billion direct grain subsidy for farmers. In principle, subsidies shall be distributed to grain planting farmers. In order to support spring plowing and corresponding preparation in 2013, the central government appropriated in January RMB 107.1 billion of comprehensive subsidies for agricultural means of production. The fine livestock breeding subsidy for farmers planting wheat, corn, soybeans, rape and highland barley is RMB 10/mu. Farmers planting rice, corn and rape will receive a direct cash subsidy. Farmers planting wheat, soybeans and cotton will receive a direct cash subsidy or a subsidy on the price gap in seed purchases. The farm machinery purchase subsidy policy continues to cover all husbandry counties and 175 types of farm machinery.

○Sufficient Spring Plowing Fertilizer in 2013

According to measurement and calculation by NDRC, the spring plowing fertilizer supply in 2013 is 34.20 million t; demand is 30.50 million t; and the supply exceeds demand by 3.70 million t, up 1.40 million t from 2012. In mid February, retail prices of domestic urea, DAP, three‐nutrient compound fertilizer, and imported MOP were RMB 2,350/t, RMB 3,580/t, RMB 3,190/t and RMB 3,590/t, respectively. Compared with early 2013, urea and DAP prices increased by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively, three‐nutrient compound fertilizer prices remained unchanged, imported MOP prices decreased by 0.3%. Compared with the same period of last year, the prices of urea and imported MOP dropped by 0.4% and 2.2% respectively, prices of DAP and three‐nutrient compound fertilizer rose by 0.8% and 0.9% respectively. NDRC forecasts that fertilizer price growth during spring plowing will be much lower than in 2012.

○A Ten‐year Low of Cotton Planting Area in China

China has 68.16 million mu cotton planting area in 2013, down 6.8% y/y, falling to a ten‐year low. NDRC will continue its cotton purchase and storage policy in 2013 to stabilize market expectations. Specific prices will be released soon.

Cotton purchase and storage in 2012 has basically been completed, about 96% of new cotton has been sold. Unginned cotton prices were over RMB 4.22 /jin, up RMB 0.1, lint prices were RMB 19,300/t, up RMB 700/t. The cash income of cotton farmers increased by RMB 141/mu.

○China Lowered Refined Oil Prices

NDRC announced lower domestic refined oil prices on

March 26. Since the effective date, March 27, maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel dropped by RMB 310/t and RMB 300/t respectively. National average retail prices of 90‐octane gasoline and 0‐octane diesel were forecast to drop by RMB 0.23/L and RMB 0.26/L.

NDRC also issued a notice of further improving the pricing mechanism for refined oil. Below are the announcement’s major contents: 1. The adjustment interval is reduced from 22 working days to 10 working days. 2. The 4% price adjustment limit in linking oil price in China to average price of a “basket” of oil in international markets is eliminated. 3. The components of that basket will be appropriately adjusted.

○Jiangxi to Have 11 Million Mu Edible Oil Crops

In 2013, Jiangxi Province is forecast to sow over 11 million mu for oil crops , yielding 1.25 million t, including over 8.3 million mu rape planting area with 790,000 t output. In order to steadily improve the comprehensive productivity of oil crops, Jiangxi Province will further consolidate and develop the locations of oil crops in advantageous regions, try to expand its rape planting area, and stabilize the scale of rape planting in cotton fields and dry lands.

○MIIT Minister to Tolerate Some Overcapacity

“Overcapacity has two sides (negative and positive). We shall closely watch serious overcapacity, and take effective measures to rectify it,” MIIT Minister Miao Wei said on China Development Forum. “Appropriate overcapacity is something for the government to tolerate or even welcome. Only a healthy margin of overcapacity can allow competition between producers.” He proposed addressing overcapacity issues in three ways: Increase concentration in industries to achieve economies of scale. Encourage producers to increase R&D funding and the technical value‐add of products. Intensify energy conservation and environmental protection measures to phase out obsolete capacity.

○ State Council: China to Add 400 Million Mu High‐Standard Farmland by 2020

According to the State Council, China will complete the transformation of medium and low yield farmlands, and build 400 million mu of high‐standard farmland by 2020. Of the 400 million mu task, 340 mu will be funded through comprehensive development investment, 60 million mu will be funded through comprehensive planning and integration of fiscal appropriation of agricultural, water conservation and some other government activities; China will complete the transformation of supporting facilities at 1,575 key mid‐sized irrigated areas; increase grain output per mu by over 100 kg from the output before implementing comprehensive agricultural development. As a result, grain planting farmers will generate about RMB 200 more income per mu, and over 32 million farmers will be direct


beneficiaries each year.

According to the assessment of the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), of the 1.826 billion mu arable land in China, about 550 million mu is high‐yield farmland with 20% more yield than ordinary farmland, 1.27 billion mu (nearly 70%) is medium and low yield farmland,. About 875 million mu of medium and low yield farmland is easy to transform.

○ Government Position on Popularization and

Application of Formulated Fertilizers

MOA, MIIT and the State General Administration for Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine jointly announced their position on popularization and application of formulated fertilizers: 1. Standardize the creation and release of fertilizer formulas. 2. Increase the production and supply. 3. Intensify their popularization. 4. Intensify supervision and management over formulated fertilizers.

Market Highlights this week

Urea prices continue to drop Ammonium sulfate prices start to move down DAP markets remain unchanged Sulfur trade is slow NPK demand is not strong MOP markets remain gloomy

Urea Production

China’s daily urea output was 191kt. Taking China’s overall urea capacity as 210kt per day, the overall utilization rate was about 91.0%. The number of producers under maintenance declined from 23 to 21. The operating rate has reached the highest point in the last two years.

Coal‐based urea producers are running normally. Operation of natural gas‐based plants is resuming quickly and the operating rates are higher than the same time of last year. Granular production equipment of Jinlin Changshan and CNOOC Fudao have resumed operation. CNPC’s Ningxia Branch and Chongqing Jianfeng are still operating at low load due to a short supply of natural gas. Urea makers’ operating rates will remain high, boosted by spring’s consumption.

Domestic market

Domestic urea markets are gloomy and some producers have to reduce prices to stimulate sales. Agricultural demand in North and Northeast China is weak due to delayed application in an unusually cool spring. Demand is

also sluggish in the southwest and northwest because of droughts. NPK producers are not active in stocking up urea. Urea prices dropped to RMB 2,080‐2,140/t for prilled and RMB 2,170‐2,220/t for granular in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and Shanxi provinces. Ex‐warehouse prices in Northeast China are RMB 2,220‐2,260/t.

More product is transferred to ports due to oversupply in domestic markets. Delivered prices to Yantai and Qinghuangdao ports are reported to have dropped to RMB 2,150/t. Urea inventories in ports increased quickly to 832k tons, mostly at Yantai (400k tons) and Yingkou (300k tons).

Asking prices for prilled urea in bonded warehouses remain $390‐395/t.

According to statistics of CNFIA, sales were 790k tons for prilled urea and 163k tons for granular urea last week, down by 2.5% and 0.0%, respectively, compared to two weeks ago, affected by weak demand.

The top five enterprises in sales were: Shanxi Fengxi (38.9k tons of prilled and 4.9k tons of granular), Shandong Lianmeng (37.1k tons of prilled and 2.1k tons of granular),


Shandong Ruixing (33.0k tons of prilled and 3.5k tons of granular), Shandong Luxi (34.1k tons of prilled and 1.8k tons of granular), and Shanxi Lanhua (4.8k tons of prilled and 29.3k tons of granular).

Outlook: Agricultural demand seems to have remained weak this spring, and urea prices are not expected to increase significantly. Domestic suppliers are focusing on export. New capacity that was put into production in 2012 will supply more urea to markets, and the domestic supply is forecast to be ample in 2013. But urea prices are not likely to below RMB 2,000/t, supported by production costs and the anticipation of successful export.

Raw materials

Anthracite prices in Shanxi Qinshui City dropped slightly due to weak demand. Ex‐mine prices reduced by RMB 10/t to RMB 1,040/t of mid‐lump with 7,000 kcal, by RMB 30/t to RMB 1,000/t for small‐lump with 6,900 kcal and by RMB 10/t to RMB 660/t for powder with 6,200kcal. Inventories of anthracite are increasing and producers are likely to decrease offering prices in the short term. The average anthracite price is RMB 833.8/t, down by RMB 1.2/t from last week. At present, delivered prices of mid‐lump anthracite are RMB 1,150‐1,450/t for contract purchase

and RMB 1,230‐1,500/t for market purchase.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium sulfate prices hit high point and start to move down by RMB 20‐50/t to RMB 900‐1,000/t in Shanxi, Henan and Hebei provinces. Demand is weak and NPK producers are not active to stock up due to high prices of ammonium sulfate. The rare earth market is gloomy, giving little support to ammonium sulfate prices. Ammonium sulfate prices are predicted to be reduced further due to sluggish demand.

Phosphate & NPK Production

Large DAP producers are running normally. The average operating rate remains 70‐80%.

MAP producers are not active due to weak markets and low prices. Wengfu is running its MAP plant at 50‐60% load, with 800k tpy of MAP capacity. The operating rate of Guizhou Kailin is only 30% due to a short supply of sulfuric acid. Hubei Yangfeng operates at 60%, with 2m tpy of MAP capacity.

Domestic phosphate

DAP –The supply of DAP is sufficient, but demand is not as strong as expected due to delayed application. Some distributors in Northeast China have had to decrease selling prices by RMB 50/t. Almost all of the DAP orders for winter storage have been finished and most producers are focusing on export markets. Large distributors are transferring product to consumption areas for purchase by retailers and farmers. The ex‐warehouse prices for 64% DAP are RMB 3,100‐3,200/t in Northeast China, RMB 3,100‐3,300/t in Northwest China and RMB 3,250‐3,350/t in North China.

It is estimated that the combined inventory of DAP in ports has been reduced to about 13,800 tons, with 9,800 tons in Qinghuangdao Port and 4,000 tons in Beihai Port.

Outlook: DAP producers and distributors will keep offering prices stable, waiting for purchasing by users. But DAP markets are weak due to ample supply in domestic markets and delayed demand.

MAP –MAP markets remain weak and producers are running at low rates. Ex‐factory prices of 55% content are RMB 2,250‐2,300/t for powder and RMB 2,300‐2,350/t for granular. Selling prices are RMB 50‐100/t lower than the posted prices. Prices in Hubei Province dropped slightly to RMB 2,250/t for 55% content, RMB 2,500/t for 58% content and RMB 2,600/t for 60% content. Some exporters have purchased products, waiting for export in mid‐May. MAP producers lack confidence to domestic markets and pay more attention to export.

International phosphate

The international phosphates fertilizer markets are little changed for April exports. The focus is moving from the activity of South America imports to India, as time is close for DAP and NBS subsidy posting levels. The DAP import


values for India so far were at $515‐520/t cfr for about 120,000t of DAP from between Ma’aden and Sabic together, to give a Saudi netback at $500‐505/t fob. Meantime, there are talks of China offers in the same delivered levels, but with credit. Until the firm subsidy level is known, India import prices are thought to remain provisional In the western markets, USA export values are gradually higher at $510‐515/t fob for DAP and MAP, but local market prices with slippage to high $460s/short ton, which is now near to metric export par. The Russian DAP, MAP fob values are $515/t fob, and North Africa at $520‐540/t fob.

Raw materials

Sulfur: MAP markets remain weak and producers are running at low rates. Ex‐factory prices of 55% content are RMB 2,250‐2,300/t for powder and RMB 2,300‐2,350/t for granular. Selling prices are RMB 50‐100/t lower than the posted prices. Prices in Hubei Province dropped slightly to RMB 2,250/t for 55% content, RMB 2,500/t for 58% content and RMB 2,600/t for 60% content. Some exporters have purchased products, waiting for export in mid‐May. MAP producers lack confidence to domestic markets and pay more attention to export.

Phosphate rock: Phosphate rock plants are running normally and the supply is increasing gradually. But producers indicate that they do not plan to raise prices in the short term, due to weak fertilizer markets. Offering prices in Guizhou Province remain stable, but the actual dealt prices are lower due to a growing supply. Prices there for 30% P2O5 are RMB 500‐580/t FOT and RMB 450‐500/t ex‐mine. Ex‐mine prices in Yunnan Province are RMB

330‐340/t for 28% P2O5 and RMB 430/t for 30% P2O5. Phosphate rock prices are likely to drop slightly, influenced by the sluggish phosphate fertilizer market.

NPK

Domestic NPK –NPK prices are unchanged and demand is not strong due to delayed agricultural application affected by low temperature. Inventories are sufficient and distributors are busy moving products to consumption areas, fearing a price drop in the coming weeks. NPK markets are expected to be feeble and sellers will have little chance to increase prices due to stagnant markets of raw materials. Some producers are reported to have decreased prices in order to stimulate sales. NPK prices remain stable at RMB 2,350‐2,500/t for NPK (15‐15‐15 Cl) and RMB 2,550‐2,750/t for NPK (15‐15‐15 S).

Potash

MOP markets are sluggish and supply is ample due to increasing arrivals of imported MOP. Ex‐warehouse prices of imported MOP are low at RMB 2,550/t in Qingdao Port, RMB 2,580/t in Yantai Port, RMB 2,620/t in Lianyungang Port and RMB 2,900/t in Fangheng Port. Imported volumes in cross‐border trade are increasing and prices have hit bottom. Imported MOP products continue to be shipped to Chinese ports and the quantities that were to arrive by sea in March total 837k tons. It is reported that 35k tons of Russian red MOP was delivered to Fangcheng port on 29 March, purchased by CNAMPGC. Sixty nine thousand tons

Sulfur Price and Inventory

Port Ex‐warehouse

RMB/t InventoryUnit : 1000t

Longkou ‐‐ 7Qingdao/Huangdao 1310 211

Zhenjiang 1250‐1260 680Zhanjiang ‐‐ 80Fangcheng 1310 720Nantong 1250‐1260 700Tianjin ‐‐ ‐‐Beihai ‐‐ 120Rizhao ‐‐ 3Total 2,521

Note: Ex‐warehouse prices in the table include 17%VAT, 1% import tax and incidental expenses.


of Canadian MOP was delivered in Zhanjiang port, bought by Sinofert. Thirty thousand tons of Canadian granular MOP was shipped to Qingdao port. Inventories in seaports once again exceeded 1m tons.

In domestic markets, Qinghai Salt Lake is beginning to deliver products to consumption areas at unchanged prices. Some small producers in Qinghai Province plan to reduce their offering prices.

SOP markets are strong and the supply is tight, boosted by strong demand. Top dressing of vegetables and fruits in eastern and northwest areas consumes more SOP, and the SOP trade is growing gradually. NPK producers are active in stocking up SOP as raw material. Xinjiang Luobupo Potash raised its offering prices to RMB 3,100‐3,200/t (delivered

price) two weeks ago.

MOP markets will remain gloomy due to large arrivals of imported MOP. It is predicted that MOP prices will move down further. Distributors anticipate a warmer demand in May, when top dressing of rice will begin.

Project China Salt Ammonia Unit in Hefei to Start Up at End of March

China Salt’s ammonia unit in Hefei New District is getting its finishing touches and will start production at the end of March. At full load, it will generate RMB 2.9 billion in annual sales. The project, in Hefei New District, involves RMB 11.4 billion investment as well as plans for agrochemical products, salt industry products and fine chemicals.

Kingenta to Build 100,000 TPY Water Soluble Fertilizer Plant

Kingenta has announced plans to build a 100,000 tpy water soluble fertilizer project at the Linshu base. The project is budgeted at RMB 218 million – all self‐funded capital. The project will be completed in 12 months. After the plant starts production, it will generate nearly RMB 1 billion sales and RMB 59.14 million net profits, and create new jobs for over 100 people.

In 2012, Kingenta realized RMB 12.54 billion operating income, up 34.45% y/y; 547 million net profits, up 25.31% y/y. Earnings per share was RMB 0.78, up 25.81% y/y.

Xinghua Chemistry Invests in Ammonium Nitrate

Shaanxi Xinghua Chemistry Co., Ltd. added RMB 1.269 billion in relocating and transforming its ammonium nitrate capacity. Phase I includes a 350,000 tpy ammonia technological transformation project, a 2x270,000 tpy nitric

acid project, etc. According to Shaanxi Xinghua Chemistry Co., Ltd., this will increase the capacity of their core product, ammonium nitrate and maximize profits. Meanwhile, it will reduce the company’s purchases of raw material ammonia and lower production costs.

Relocation Progress of Tianzhu Fertilizer

Located downtown in the Pingdu part of Qingdao, Tianzhu Chemical Fertilizer Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Tianzhu Fertilizer”) is a subsidiary of Qingdao Alkali Industry Co., Ltd. It announced plans on August 20, 2011 to stop production and start relocation of production units for ammonia, urea, methanol, formaldehyde, stearic acid, liquid carbon dioxide, etc. It plans to complete the relocation by April 2013. As of December 31, 2012, Tianzhu Fertilizer reported relocation‐related losses and expenses of RMB 2.8602 trillion. Currently, the land has entered auction proceedings. The net income from land and other assets is forecast to be RMB 1.9613 trillion.

MOP Inventory and Price in Sea Port

Port Producer Ex‐warehouse

RMB/tStorage (kt)

Zhanjiang

Israel 2700 24

Canada 2750‐2850 109Russian 2700‐2850 46

Jordan 2700 8German 2700 10

Lianyungang

Canada 2750 19Jordan 2700 67

Chile 2700 15Russian 2600 3

Fangcheng Russia 2700 65Canada 2850 26

Jordan ‐‐ ‐‐

Yantai Russia 2580‐2700 50

Canada 2750 5

Israel 2700 70

Qingdao

Russia 2580‐2700 23

Canada 2750‐2800 50

Israel 2700 80

Jordan 2680 60

Chiwan

Jordan/ Chile 2700 25

Israel 2750‐2850 35

Canada 2750 44

Russia 2850 30

German 2700 17

Yingkou

Canada 2830 100

Israel 2800 50Russia 2800 1

German 2800 30

Nanjing

Russia 2580‐2700 19

Canada 2750‐2850 49

Israel 2700 20

Others ‐‐ 27

Total 1,177


Story & Analysis

2013 Ammonium Nitrate Market Analysis

Editor’s note: CFMW conducted a simple analysis of China’s ammonium nitrate market on February 5, 2013. This article is in‐depth coverage of the ammonium nitrate market.

Nitric acid is primarily used in manufacturing ammonium nitrate and some other fertilizers, and is also used in the organics, dye, coating, pharmaceutical, metallurgical and plastic fields. Ammonium nitrate has become the major downstream extension route for nitric acid because it features mature production technology and inexpensive and easily obtainable raw materials (nitric acid and ammonia).

Nitric acid is one of the major raw materials of ammonium nitrate. Currently, China has too much nitric acid capacity. It was 9.20 million tpy in 2009, increased to 13 million tpy in 2012, and will reach 19 million tpy by the end of 2013. The nitric acid market will continue to report low price due to increasing capacity and insufficient downstream demand in economic downturn. Various nitric acid producers are finding new ways to profit from their nitric acid inventory.

China has a simple ammonium nitrate industrial chain. Most ammonium nitrate producers also have upstream production units of nitric acid. Ammonium nitrate capacity in China was 6.1 million tpy in 2011, reached 7.25 million tpy in 2012. New capacity growth exceeded downstream demand growth. 70% of ammonium nitrate in China use coal as raw material, and less than 30% use natural gas as raw material. Top 5 ammonium nitrate producers in terms of capacity are Guangxi Liuhua Chlor‐Alkali Co., Ltd., Yunnan Jiehua Group Co., Ltd., Shaanxi Xinghua Chemistry Co., Ltd., Shijiazhuang Zhengding Jinshi Chemical Co., Ltd. and Sichuan Golden Elephant Chemical Co., Ltd., followed by Henan Jinkai Chemical Industry Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., Inner Mongolia Wula Mountain Fertilizer Plant, Taiyuan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., Hebei Yangmei Zhengyuan Chemical Group Co., Ltd., Shanxi Tianji Coal Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd., etc. Top 10 producers have a combined capacity of 4.23 million tpy, about 56.4% of total output.

Ammonium nitrate is primarily divided into industrial ammonium nitrate and agricultural ammonium nitrate. The industrial form is used in manufacturing civil explosives. It takes 0.85 t of ammonium nitrate to make one ton of explosives. The ammonium nitrate consumed in making explosives will reach 3.80 million t in 2012. With the popularization of nitro‐compound fertilizers, agricultural ammonium nitrate will take an increasing market share. Nitro‐compound fertilizers consumed an estimated 1.6 million t ammonium nitrate in 2012. In 2012, an estimated 5.4 million t of ammonium nitrate was consumed in industry and agriculture, and 1.85 million t was surplus, highlighting the present risk of overcapacity.

1. Industrial ammonium nitrate

Industrial ammonium nitrate is used in making civil explosives. China issues licenses to qualified civil explosive producers. Currently, China has issued licenses for 5 million tpy explosives, and will not allow new capacity in principle. China implements indicative price range in sale of civil explosives. Ex‐factory prices of producers can float only within a 15% margins around the government’s benchmark price. Ammonium nitrate accounts for about 50% of the cost of making civil explosives. In 2012, excessive growth in new capacity for ammonium nitrate in China resulted in overcapacity and a sharp drop of ammonium nitrate prices. Civil explosive prices will not drop accordingly because the government limits the fluctuation. This increases the profit margin of civil explosives.

The civil explosive industry features much licensed capacity and declining demand in the east, less licensed capacity and rising demand in the west, and a regional imbalance in the growth of demand. In H1 2012, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shandong, Guizhou, Xinjiang, Ningxia and Gansu reported sustained rapid growth of explosive output, each up 15% y/y; explosive production in the west will consume more ammonium nitrate. MIIT’s Safe Production Bureau points out in the 12th Five‐year Plan of the Civil Explosives Industry that China will reduce the number of explosives producers from 146 to below 50 during plan period, encourage resource integration and extension between upstream and downstream enterprises along the industrial chain, combine ammonium nitrate producers with industrial explosive producers, and form alliances within effective transportation radius for ammonium nitrate supply.

2. Agricultural Ammonium Nitrate

Agricultural ammonium nitrate is used in producing


nitro‐compound fertilizers (agricultural fertilizers). Nitro‐compound fertilizer is a three‐nutrient (NPK) compound fertilizer, containing ammonium nitrate as a nitrogen source, adding phosphorus, potassium and some other raw materials, and producing high concentration compound fertilizer ((N+P2O5+K2O) ＞ 40%) through secondary processing. According to The 12th Five‐year Plan of the Fertilizer Industry, released in 2012 by MIIT, China will increase compound rate of single nutrient fertilizers during the plan period. NDRC also lists nitro‐compound

fertilizer as one of the products whose development will be encouraged in China. According to statistics of China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association (CNFA), by the end of 2012, China will have over 20 nitro‐compound fertilizer producers above the designated size, whose combined capacity will be 6.58 tpy. Currently, China has over 20 new or proposed nitro‐compound fertilizer producers whose combined new capacity will reach 10 million tpy. By the end of 2015, nitro‐compound fertilizer capacity will reach about 16 million t.

H1 2013 Urea Supply and Demand Forecast

Editor’s note: Urea output data in this article is based on the data released by China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association (CPCIA). There is a slight discrepancy between the data of CPCIA and the data of China’s National Bureau of Statistics. We believe the data of CPCIA is more sensible, while the data system of National Bureau of Statistics of China is more complete. Each of the two organizations has its own strengths.

In H1 2013, CFMW conducted a simple forecast of urea supply and demand in China.

Carried‐over inventory: Data show that China’s urea output (physical quantity) in 2012 was 61.93 million t; 10.33 million t inventory was carried over from 2011; and the actual urea supply in 2012 was 72.26 million t. Total demand for urea in China in 2012 was about 61 million t, including agricultural consumption of 41.5 million t, industrial consumption of 12.5 million t and export of 6.95 million t. Urea inventory at the end of 2012 was about 11.2 million t, a slight growth of 1.6 million t from 2011.

Output: According to the data of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, urea output during January‐February 2013 was about 10.50 million t. As the weather becomes warmer, the supply of anthracite and natural gas will become sufficient. H1 is the peak season for urea demand. Producers will maintain high operating rates. According to statistics, urea producers reported about 86‐88% operating rates in March, higher than those in the same periods in 2011 and 2012. Urea output in China in H1 2013 will be at least 30 million t.

Demand: Regarding agricultural consumption, spring is the peak season of fertilizer consumption. According to experience in previous years, H1 fertilizer consumption is about 65% of total fertilizer consumption in an entire year. Through measurement and calculation, urea demand in 2013 will be about 42.50 million t, including about 27.6 million t agricultural consumption in H1. Industrial urea is primarily used in making particle board, melamine, ADC foaming agents, cyanuric acid, urea (auto‐use), etc., and it is used for denitration at power plants. Industrial urea

consumption in 2012 was about 12.5 million t, and industrial urea demand in 2013 will be about 14.5 million t. According to our forecast, H1 industrial urea consumption will be about 7.5 million t.

Export: H1 features high duties for urea, so large quantities of urea will not be exported. Traders are now primarily store urea at Yantai, Yingkou and some other export ports. Urea inventory at export ports in H1 is forecast to be about 600,000t. In H1, Guangxi will export about 100,000‐150,000 t of urea to Vietnam through low‐volume transactions at the border.

Overall, China will have a sufficient urea supply in H1 2013, with about 5.4 million t surplus. Because the supply exceeds demand, urea prices have surged mildly in an atmosphere of strong demand during the spring plowing period.

Urea Supply and Demand in H1 2013

Item Quantity （million tons）

Urea Supply

Stock carry-over from 2012 11.2

Output in H1 2013 30.0

Total Supply in H1 41.2

Urea Demand

Demand from Agriculture 27.6

Demand from Industry 7.5

Demand from Export 0.7

Surplus 5.4


Fertilizer Price Watch 1USD=6.27RMB

Producer 2‐Apr 26‐Mar Producer 2‐Apr 26‐Mar

RMB/t RMB/t RMB/t RMB/t

Urea DAP (64%) CNPC Daqing Petrochemical 2220 2220 Jiangxi Guixi Fert. 3300 3300Liaoning Huajin Chemical Group 2230 2230 CNOOC Dayukou* 3350 3350Jilin Tonghua 2250 2250 Hubei Huangmailing 3250 3250CNOOC Tianye Chemical 2130 2130 Hubei Yihua* 3250 3250Cangzhou Dahua 2120 2120 Guangxi Luzhai 3250 3250Yangmei Zhengyuan (Granular) 2150 2230 Sinochem Mosaic* ‐‐ ‐‐Shanxi Jinfeng (Granular) 2160 2180 Wengfu* 3250 3350Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer(Granular) 2160 2190 Kailin* 3250 3350Shanxi Tianze (Granular)

※ 2110 2150 Yun Tian Hua* 3200 3200

Henan Zhongyuan Dahua 2140 2140 MAP Henan Xinlianxin Fertilzier 2120 2120 Anhui Liuguo(55%) 2350 2350Hubei Yihua 2190 2220 Jiangsu Ruihe (55%) 2300 2300Anhui Haoyuan 2120 2140 Hubei Yangfeng (58%) 2550 2550Anhui Jinmei Zhongneng 2150 2180 Hubei Yihua (55%) 2350‐2400 2350‐2400Guangxi Liuzhou 2350 2350 Jinyuan Chenguang (55%) 2350 2350Chongqing Jiangbei 2130 2130 Wengfu (60%) 2700 2700Chongqing Jianfeng 2150 2150 Kailin (60%) 2700 2700Shandong Luxi Chemical 2110 2130 Yun Tian Hua (60%) 2700 2700Shandong Hualu Hengsheng 2120 2120 Win‐Win (58%) 2600 2600

Shandong Lianmeng Chemical 2100 2120 Domestic NPK 15‐15‐15(S) Jiangsu Linggu Chemical 2180 2220 Kingenta 2800 2800Jiangsu Huachang Chemical 2180 2200 Shikefeng 2550 2550Zhejiang Jinju 2250 2250 Shandong Luxi 2560 2560PetroChina Urumchi Branch 1950 1950 Hubei Yangfeng 2520 2520Shaannxi Weihe Coal Chemicals 2200 2200 Hongri Acron 2820 2820PetroChina Ningxia Branch 2130 2130 Jiangsu Zhongdong 2600 2600Sichuan Meifeng Chemical 2280 2300 Guizhou Xiyang 2800 2800Yunnan Yunwei Group 2250 2250 Hubei Xiangyun 2520 2520

Guizhou Chitianhua 2280 2280 Domestic NPK 15‐15‐15(Cl) CNOOC Fudao (Granular) 2250 2250 Kingenta 2500 2500

Ammonium Chloride Shikefeng 2330 2330Shaanxi Xinghua / 23.5% 850 850 Shandong Luxi 2400 2400Hubei Yihua /25% 880 880 Hubei Yangfeng 2300 2300Zigong Honghe Chemical /25% 900 900 Hongri Acron 2720 2720Dalian Dahua Group /25% 920 920 Jiangsu Zhongdong 2300 2300Yangmei Fengxi/23.5% 820 820 Liaoning Xiyangte 2650 2650Guangxi Liuhua /23.5% 800 800 Stanley 2550 2550

Ammonium Sulfate Imported NPKHandan Steel 960 960 Acron (16‐16‐16 Cl) 3750‐3800 3750‐3800Guangxi Liuzhou Steel 1080 1080 Rossosh (16‐16‐16 Cl) 3450‐3550 3450‐3550Yueyang Baoqing (Agriculture) 1050 1050 Romania (15‐15‐15 S) 4600 4600DSM Nanjing Chemical (Agriculture) ‐‐ ‐‐ Norway (16‐16‐16 S) 4800 4800

Shandong Wolan Group 1080 1100 MOP (60%) Sinopec Balin 1280 1280 Qinghai Salt‐lake(60% K2O) * 2680‐2720 2680‐2720Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining 1280 1280 Golumd Zangge (57% K2O) * 2350 2350

Phosphate Rock (30%) SOP (50%) Hubei Xingfa (29.5%) 590 590 Xinjiang Luobupo (G) * 3100‐3200 3100‐3200Hubei Shenlong (30%) 600 600 Migao (Powder) ‐‐ ‐‐Guizhou Kailin (30%) 550‐560 550‐560 Green‐on (G) 3300‐3450 3450

Wengfu (30%) 500‐600 500‐600 Mg‐SOP (21‐22%) Yunnan Phoschem(28%) 350‐430 350‐430 Qinghai Bindi* 1550 1550

Sichuan Deyang (30%) ‐‐ ‐‐ NOP (46%) Sichuan Leibo (28%) 310‐320 310‐320 Migao 5050 5050

※ Pick up at the factory by buyer’s own truck *Delivered price to the eastern and northern regions.

Buy, Sell & Stock of Supply and Marketing Cooperative System

Production (1000t)

Buy 2013 Sell 2013 Stock 2013

Feb Jan‐Feb

Feb Jan‐Feb

End‐Feb + ‐ % total total + ‐ % total + ‐ %

Fertilizer 12824.4 24325.1 4.38 8918.5 16685.8 5.30 30118.8 9.21

Nitrogen Fertilizer 6950.2 13322.2 6.56 4948.4 9117.0 5.95 13711.7 15.20

‐‐ Urea 4771.0 8780.9 2.52 3432.1 6069.6 3.76 9140.9 9.22

‐‐ Ammonium Bicarbonate 1583.0 3249.7 20.63 1375.7 2741.3 13.23 2317.9 16.47

Phosphate Fertilizer 1167.5 2106.1 12.84 984.4 1723.5 ‐2.80 2652.6 ‐8.19

Potash 778.9 1550.3 0.51 401.4 947.4 3.44 3614.2 0.14

Compound Fertilizer 3927.8 7346.5 ‐0.65 2584.3 4897.9 7.60 10140.4 10.49

‐‐ Diammonium Phosphate 1057.1 1925.9 3.37 530.6 1122.9 15.23 2641.9 15.17

‐‐ Bulk Blending Fertilizer 1256.8 2282.7 26.65 938.2 1819.1 18.98 2779.3 37.00

Note: Supply and Marketing Cooperative Union System (SMCUS) includes Sino‐Agri, and the provincial, municipal and county‐level agricultural means of production companies. SMCUS’s market share occupies 60‐70% of the total. The data will help you estimate sale and stock trends of China’s fertilizer distribution pipeline.


Production of Chemical Fertilizer in February 2013 (by province)

Province Number of February 2013 Jan‐Feb 2013 Number of February 2013 Jan‐Feb 2013producer t yoy t yoy producer t yoy t yoy

Ammonia Fertilizer (Total, Nutrient)Total 331 4,462,765 5.4% 8,675,611 0.0% 742 5,791,369 2.0% 11,425,563 6.6%Beijing Tianjin 1 18,541 15.9% 39,937 17.5% 1 9,739 ‐12.2% 21,706 4.2%Hebei 25 294,881 12.7% 567,266 5.1% 34 192,745 26.1% 362,331 15.1%Shanxi 21 388,149 ‐13.0% 781,724 ‐10.4% 35 375,441 ‐10.8% 746,455 ‐4.0%

Inner Mongolia 3 51,545 22.3% 109,578 48.3% 9 95,991 ‐29.9% 181,924 ‐33.8%Liaoning 7 87,184 ‐4.7% 170,927 ‐3.2% 13 66,753 ‐2.4% 129,597 ‐6.7%Jilin 3 46,887 ‐3.7% 94,842 ‐4.7% 8 52,791 ‐31.2% 125,048 ‐12.2%

Heilongjiang 6 54,493 ‐24.9% 109,549 ‐24.6% 6 52,539 ‐15.3% 106,106 ‐11.9%Shanghai 3 1,947 ‐0.6% 4,058 3.7%Jiangsu 20 275,770 ‐1.9% 553,883 ‐18.6% 30 202,304 ‐6.0% 404,799 ‐20.4%Zhejiang 6 46,637 22.0% 98,283 24.7% 6 22,923 9.8% 46,460 8.8%Anhui 13 241,240 6.7% 472,392 0.6% 24 277,940 34.9% 558,904 33.0%Fujian 14 69,359 ‐5.8% 149,605 6.7% 16 35,517 ‐11.2% 75,748 ‐1.0%Jiangxi 2 19,830 40.4% 39,847 35.9% 6 34,295 ‐11.1% 72,103 ‐17.2%

Shandong 34 659,708 9.2% 1,329,180 7.6% 77 1,060,747 4.3% 2,257,464 26.5%Henan 27 375,370 ‐4.6% 755,559 ‐5.8% 59 314,368 ‐13.1% 599,005 ‐16.7%Hubei 22 394,696 1.3% 768,975 0.1% 91 954,636 3.3% 1,782,319 7.5%Hunan 21 127,745 10.8% 264,679 5.4% 49 163,442 ‐5.2% 307,717 4.1%

Guangdong 2 3,584 ‐32.6% 9,229 ‐10.4% 10 35,961 ‐37.4% 72,868 ‐17.2%Guangxi AR 11 99,352 10.0% 196,923 9.6% 22 98,100 ‐11.5% 204,556 ‐0.7%Hainan 2 67,472 12.7% 142,347 5.8% 2 54,744 10.9% 114,607 3.2%

Chongqing 12 151,591 13.5% 264,297 ‐0.8% 16 185,534 9.2% 331,203 1.2%Sichuan 25 314,496 73.3% 501,209 29.1% 68 345,649 23.5% 732,830 34.9%Guizhou 10 131,570 ‐1.6% 266,801 3.6% 20 382,760 6.6% 720,759 7.3%Yunnan 15 214,478 71.0% 395,441 44.7% 70 274,834 20.2% 513,029 20.9%Shaanxi 14 106,312 15.9% 210,557 12.4% 24 84,560 ‐3.2% 175,478 7.2%Gansu 3 32,760 ‐12.4% 43,603 ‐34.0% 13 51,457 ‐24.9% 84,365 ‐16.6%Qinghai 5 19,386 ‐22.7% 40,610 ‐38.8%

Ningxia AR 8 70,657 ‐32.3% 137,497 ‐34.2% 13 46,657 ‐15.8% 94,821 ‐30.2%Xinjiang AR 4 118,460 ‐23.5% 201,482 ‐33.7% 12 297,612 13.9% 558,692 13.8%

Nitrogen (100%, N) Urea(100% N) Total 489 4,178,436 6.3% 8,083,017 5.2% 177 2,543,740 7.3% 4,824,506 2.8%Beijing Tianjin 1 9,739 ‐12.2% 21,706 4.2% Hebei 28 185,272 27.7% 351,371 17.2% 12 152,165 34.3% 282,754 21.0%Shanxi 35 375,441 ‐9.0% 746,455 ‐1.8% 17 354,267 ‐0.6% 706,027 9.2%

Inner Mongolia 6 83,712 ‐33.1% 155,819 ‐36.4% 4 77,616 ‐34.4% 142,583 ‐38.4%Liaoning 12 66,653 ‐1.9% 129,407 ‐6.0% 4 51,089 ‐3.6% 100,949 ‐6.3%Jilin 8 28,803 ‐29.7% 62,792 ‐19.5% 2 19,210 9.2% 35,921 2.7%

Heilongjiang 6 52,539 ‐15.3% 106,106 ‐11.9% 5 50,088 ‐12.9% 102,203 ‐8.3%Shanghai 2 1,504 2.9% 3,162 8.0% 1 0 ‐100.0% 0 ‐100.0%Jiangsu 23 189,109 ‐5.7% 378,211 ‐21.2% 8 108,795 ‐0.2% 214,137 ‐2.1%Zhejiang 5 22,415 11.7% 45,155 8.5% 1 8,328 2.5% 17,832 11.3%Anhui 22 216,707 30.1% 434,813 28.5% 7 108,729 13.8% 203,131 2.2%Fujian 12 33,020 ‐10.1% 71,451 0.5% 3 26,240 ‐0.4% 53,996 2.6%Jiangxi 2 14,737 88.0% 29,448 59.6% 1 6,598 107.1% 13,373 59.7%

Shandong 71 782,741 11.1% 1,622,540 24.5% 19 368,577 18.8% 731,349 14.7%Henan 48 287,978 ‐15.9% 554,821 ‐19.0% 20 198,413 ‐8.9% 376,203 ‐12.5%Hubei 43 511,024 12.1% 934,428 13.0% 9 165,759 ‐6.9% 313,763 ‐3.5%Hunan 32 144,705 2.7% 276,230 10.2% 14 63,445 ‐10.1% 125,507 ‐2.8%

Guangdong Guangxi AR 13 67,143 ‐5.6% 138,771 5.4% 4 33,159 41.8% 64,863 41.3%Hainan 2 54,744 10.9% 114,607 3.2% 2 54,744 10.9% 114,607 3.2%

Chongqing 13 121,866 15.9% 218,708 2.3% 4 60,673 35.6% 102,491 9.1%Sichuan 35 261,392 34.0% 441,311 10.5% 12 153,229 38.9% 230,961 2.6%Guizhou 12 186,354 13.6% 349,380 6.7% 5 83,709 8.2% 156,474 ‐4.0%Yunnan 22 108,617 110.9% 194,165 70.7% 8 74,517 146.0% 129,625 83.6%Shaanxi 13 60,956 16.2% 124,637 16.8% 3 43,511 31.7% 86,436 32.8%Gansu 4 40,661 ‐36.7% 69,535 ‐25.9% 2 34,203 ‐40.7% 56,582 ‐30.0%Qinghai 1 19,386 2.7% 40,610 ‐21.7% 1 19,386 2.7% 40,610 ‐21.7%

Ningxia AR 10 39,149 ‐12.9% 78,101 ‐32.7% 2 27,842 ‐11.5% 57,545 ‐36.6%Xinjiang AR 8 212,071 23.9% 389,276 15.6% 7 199,450 24.7% 364,585 15.8%

Phosphate Fertilizer(100% P2O5) Potash (100% K2O) Total 326 1,419,675 ‐9.3% 2,957,025 9.2% 56 193,257 3.1% 385,521 17.0%Beijing Tianjin Hebei 7 4,646 ‐26.5% 5,193 ‐58.0% 2 2,827 96.7% 5,766 103.2%Shanxi 2 0 ‐100.0% 0 ‐100.0%

Inner Mongolia 2 12,280 11.9% 26,106 4.9% 1 0 ‐100.0% 0 ‐100.0%Liaoning 2 100 ‐79.2% 190 ‐83.9% 1 0 0 Jilin 4 9,594 ‐41.1% 26,870 ‐6.7% 4 14,394 ‐26.2% 35,386 ‐0.5%

Heilongjiang Shanghai 1 443 ‐10.8% 896 ‐9.2% Jiangsu 9 13,195 ‐10.8% 26,588 ‐7.3% Zhejiang 1 508 ‐37.0% 1,305 21.5% Anhui 9 61,232 55.1% 124,091 52.0% 4 0 0 Fujian 3 1,433 ‐4.8% 2,100 ‐8.3% 1 1,065 ‐38.3% 2,197 ‐29.4%Jiangxi 5 19,558 ‐36.4% 42,655 ‐37.9% 1 0 0

Shandong 43 237,505 ‐13.8% 551,976 30.4% 11 40,501 11.7% 82,948 42.8%Henan 8 11,055 139.3% 20,290 134.8% 4 15,335 5.7% 23,894 ‐6.0%Hubei 68 423,472 ‐9.3% 815,976 ‐1.5% 6 20,140 1128.8% 31,916 1250.1%Hunan 17 18,737 ‐36.4% 31,487 ‐23.3% 2 0 ‐100.0% 0 ‐100.0%

Guangdong 8 29,940 ‐42.4% 61,114 ‐22.7% 2 6,021 11.1% 11,754 31.7%Guangxi AR 12 23,690 ‐32.4% 45,438 ‐30.2% 2 7,267 53.6% 20,347 117.1%Hainan

Chongqing 4 63,355 ‐2.2% 112,026 ‐1.3% 2 313 469 Sichuan 36 84,257 ‐3.8% 291,519 97.1% Guizhou 9 192,715 1.3% 363,034 8.4% 2 3,691 ‐19.0% 8,346 ‐10.5%Yunnan 50 166,216 ‐6.2% 318,864 2.6% 1 0 0 Shaanxi 12 23,604 ‐32.3% 50,841 ‐10.8% 1 0 0 Gansu 8 10,796 159.3% 14,830 111.8% 1 0 ‐100.0% 0 ‐100.0%Qinghai 4 0 ‐100.0% 0 ‐100.0%

Ningxia AR 4 7,508 ‐28.0% 16,720 ‐15.6% Xinjiang AR 2 3,836 143.9% 6,917 112.2% 4 81,705 ‐7.7% 162,499 7.6%

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics of China


Import of Chemical Fertilizer in 2011‐2013 (Unit: t)

Export of Chemical Fertilizer in 2010‐2012 (Unit: t)

Data source: China Customs

Ammonia Anthracite Methanol

2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011

Jan 21,339 14,800 25,791 2,854,901 2,507,695 2,368,407 660,977 400,133 392,579

Feb 26,428 24,325 14,476 3,006,573 2,893,738 1,049,680 348,866 391,407 275,769

Mar 48,207 34,145 3,807,189 2,094,677 491,539 533,203

Apr 37,423 7,627 3,363,577 3,756,809 500,029 498,255

May 6,672 42,046 3,129,652 3,922,215 421,044 568,338

Jun 31,639 28,967 3,284,201 3,749,937 267,401 595,409

Jul 23,427 7,920 2,426,226 3,633,216 259,237 501,881

Aug 33,958 19,097 1,936,890 3,148,800 424,571 446,220

Sep 23,426 42,567 2,485,769 3,259,128 368,803 379,654

Oct 25,145 8,850 2,050,185 2,860,644 472,959 536,973

Nov 40,329 14,436 3,309,751 3,050,857 468,419 514,999

Dec 30,308 42,006 3,276,096 3,235,978 535,752 488,723

Total 47,767 339,659 287,930 5,861,474 34,471,100 36,130,348 1,009,843 5,001,121 5,732,002

MOP Sulfur NPK

2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011

Jan 459,347 692,004 506,780 1,026,699 951,227 940,581 123,888 85,021 140,330

Feb 359,623 564,383 154,218 1,119,866 980,690 512,669 96,727 116,769 78,949

Mar 686,710 387,995 1,194,626 1,081,415 164,374 29,800

Apr 308,809 560,480 990,190 603,863 79,642 116,922

May 627,172 790,842 1,197,750 808,046 159,229 31,089

Jun 749,463 541,646 696,949 648,753 95,430 127,225

Jul 751,065 407,881 811,341 851,452 138,655 69,440

Aug 880,494 633,910 710,066 638,160 141,319 82,182

Sep 316,167 790,664 1,053,530 1,003,074 138,123 60,193

Oct 334,104 605,026 885,065 771,242 75,112 74,554

Nov 202,544 769,699 880,739 895,053 76,144 68,662

Dec 229,224 252,735 851,094 768,902 48,769 138,828

Total 818,970 6,342,140 6,401,876 2,146,565 11,203,264 9,523,208 220,615 1,318,586 1,018,173

Urea Ammonium Sulfate DAP

2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011

Jan 308,245 115,609 346,148 217,764 89,405 129,841 67,857 86,190 145,084

Feb 306,438 624 196,391 107,611 108,087 130,333 50,594 45,887 64,355

Mar 790 53,604 99,946 172,167 22,266 69,634

Apr 2,948 42,100 104,151 163,891 25,792 13,758

May 100,021 19,272 239,907 155,929 12,531 17,185

Jun 91,338 23,016 309,502 131,492 77,181 332,378

Jul 353,205 279,757 204,912 195,256 423,061 545,728

Aug 677,694 492,042 229,784 102,429 1,168,019 939,059

Sep 1,255,864 457,729 209,511 167,728 839,069 754,663

Oct 1,243,926 487,533 165,177 150,401 467,023 622,960

Nov 1,447,963 896,143 209,113 185,190 447,703 234,655

Dec 1,657,885 265,085 183,724 130,777 319,265 278,055

Total 614,683 6,947,866 3,558,820 325,375 2,153,219 1,815,435 118,451 3,933,987 4,017,514

MAP TSP NP Compound Fertilizer

2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011

Jan 30,407 12,619 85,963 43,023 26,164 115,589 8,912 253,708 100,475

Feb ‐‐ 11,209 1,637 14,567 50,674 33,535 5,964 92,989 26,915

Mar 21 25,962 38,416 139,864 9,701 62,816

Apr 6 6,300 31,118 127,649 20,112 33,737

May 5 620 157,062 244,810 6,300 195,151

Jun 90,949 11,478 89,958 273,617 63,539 303,506

Jul 73,511 116,935 76,795 158,864 58,486 525,487

Aug 67,363 166,938 151,933 139,762 47,083 612,147

Sep 121,577 262,310 30,019 135,995 100,707 491,587

Oct 82,388 67,625 69,496 188,396 105,907 600,155

Nov 63,254 69,229 93,144 101,409 30,792 623,274

Dec 71,859 49,796 38,176 73,070 66,546 382,398

Total 30,407 594,759 864,794 57,590 852,954 1,732,560 14,876 855,869 3,957,648


New Fertilizer Project in China 1) Urea Project (1000tpy, Product)

Company Location Ammonia Urea Raw Material Remarks

Luxi Chemical Shandong 500 500 Coal Completed, used as raw materials of melamine

Qianjiang Hua’errun Hubei 400 520 Anthracite Completed at the end of August

Xinjiang Yihua Xinjiang 300 520 Coal Plan to put into production in Oct 2011

SinoChem Changshan Jilin 450 800 Coal 2009‐2011, expansion from 180ktNH3/ 300ktUrea

Aksu Huajin Xinjiang 450 800 Coal 2010‐2011, expansion from 300ktNH3/ 520ktUrea

2011 total 2,100 3,140

Note: some new projects have been completed in 2011, and were delayed to put into production to 2012, such as Guodian Chifeng, Guizhou Jinchi, Jinxin Chemical, Kuitun Jinjiang Chemical and Yangmei Heshun.

We revised the 2011’s table and put these projects into 2012’s table. In addition, 520k tons of urea capacity of Inner Mongolia Tianrun has been delayed to 2013

due to uncertain factors. So the actual new capacity of urea in 2011 putting into production was 3.14m tons.

Company Location Ammonia Urea Raw Material Date for putting into production

Chitianhua Tongzi Coal Chem Tongzi, Guizhou 300 520 Coal Completed in 2011, and put into production in

Jan 2012

Shijiangzhuang Jinshi Hebei 200 300 Coal May 2012

Shandong Haluhengsheng Shandong 200 400 Coal May 2012

Xinjiang Kuitun Jinjiang Xinjiang 400 700 Coal Completed in 2011, and put into production in May 2012

Jinsheng Yuxiang Xinjiang 180 300 Natural Gas May 2012, used as raw materials of melamine

Sichaun Nanta Chem Sichuan 45 ‐‐ Coal May 2012

Datang Hulunbeier Inner Mongolia 180 300 Coal July 2012

Yangmei Heshun Shanxi 240 400 Coal Completed in 2011, and put into production in August 2012

Shandong Yekuang Xinjiang 300 520 Coal October 2012 Shandong Yekuang Kaiyang, Guizhou 500 ‐‐ Coal October 2012

Shijiangzhuang Zhengyuan Hebei 240 400 Coal November 2012

Henan Jinkai Henan 300 600 Coal November 2012, used as raw materials of AN

Guodian Chifeng Inner Mongolia 300 520 Coal Completed in Sep 2011, and put into production

in December 2012

Hulunbeier Jinxin Chemical Inner Mongolia 500 800 Coal Completed in Sep 2011, and put into production in December 2012, branch of Yuntianhua

Tangshan Jinyin Hebei 240 400 Coal December 2012, branch of Jinmei Group

Zhengzhou Shuijing Henan 100 200 Coal December 2012 Shaanxi Shanhua Shaanxi 400 600 Coal December 2012 Anhui Liuguo Chemical Anhui 300 300 Coal December 2012 Sichuan Meifeng Xinjiang 100 180 Coal December 2012

2012 total 5,025 7,440

Company Location Ammonia Urea Raw Material Remarks

China Coal & Coke Holdings Shanxi 180 300 Coke‐oven gas Put into production in February 2013

Inner Mongolia Tianrun Inner Mongolia 300 520 Coal Delayed to 2013 Jinchang Chemical Gansu 200 300 Coal 2009‐2013, Completed in Sep 2012Qinghai Salt‐lake Group Haixi, Qinghai 180 300 Natural gas Delayed to 2013, under constructionCNSG Anhui Hongsifang Feidong, Anhui 300 300 Coal Delayed to 2013, under constructionShanxi Lingshi Shanxi 180 300 Coke‐oven gas Delayed to 2013, under constructionShandong Ruixing Shandong 300 400 Coal Delayed to 2013, under constructionShaanxi Aowei Qianyuan Shaanxi 300 520 Coal Delayed to 2013, under constructionNingxia Yufeng Chem Ningxia 150 200 Coal 2011‐2013Hegang Xinhua Chemical Heilongjiang 300 520 Coal 2011‐2013, Xinjiang Zhongneng Wanyua Xinjiang 400 600 Coal 2010‐2013PetroChina Ningxia Ningxia 450 800 Coal June 2012 ‐ 2013 CNOOC Huahe Heilongjiang 300 520 Coal Jul 2012‐Oct 2013, granular urea

Henan Xinlianxin Henan 450 800 Coal 2010‐2014Sichuan Leshan Sichuan 65 ‐‐ Coke‐oven gas 2013‐Anhui Huaihua Anhui 300 520 Coal ProposedAnhui Sunson Anhui 500 800 Coal Aug. 2009‐? Anhui Jinmei Zhongneng Anhui 300 500 Coal 2011‐?Songyuan Ji’an Biochem Jilin 180 300 Coal PostponeShenhua Ningmei Yinchuan Ningxia 520 920 Coal PostponeJiemei Fengyou Yinchuan,Ningxia 400 700 Coal PostponedShanxi Yu County Shanxi 300 520 Coal PostponeFengxi Huarui Shanxi 180 300 Coal ProposedDatang Shanxi Jingle, Shanxi 180 300 Coal postponeShanxi Lijiu Coking Coal Lvliang, Shanxi 300 520 Coal Aug. 2010‐ ? Shanxi Jincheng Anthracite Jiaozuo, Henan 300 520 Coal ProposedSichuan Hongda Mianzhu, Sichuan 200 300 Coal ProposedNingxia Baota Ningxia 450 780 Coal Proposed


Company Location Ammonia Urea Raw Material Remarks SinoChem Ningxia 2,000 3,200 Coal ProposedWuyuan Jinniu Coal Chem. Inner Mongolia 300 520 Coal Start construction in July 2011 Xilinhe(Hebei Qian’an) Inner Mongolia 460 800 Coal postpone Xinsheng Energy Inner Mongolia 300 520 Coal postponeChina Coal Energy Co. Inner Mongolia 2,000 3,500 Coal Signed turnkey contract in June 2011Hongyu Technology Co. Inner Mongolia 300 520 Coal Start construction in July 2011 Xinjiang Mingji Hutubi, Xinjiang 300 520 Coal ProposedLu’an Xinjiang Coal Yili, Xinjiang 300 520 Coal postponeXinjiang Xinlianxin Xinjiang 280 480 Coal 2012‐?Hegang Xinhua Coal Chem. Heilongjiang 600 1040 Coal 2010‐ Postpone Beifeng Ning’an Heilongjiang 160 260 Coal Postpone Guangxi Liuhua Xingyi, Guizhou 400 150 Coal ProposedHubei Huaqiang Hubei 400 600 Coal PostponeGansu Jinhua Group Gansu 200 300 Coke‐oven gas ProposedJizhong Energy Group Inner Mongolia 300 500 Coal postponeCNSG Debang Xinyu Jiangsu 350 300 Coal Oct 2012‐not announced CNPC Talimu Akesu, Xinjiang 450 800 Coal Oct 2012‐not announced Yangmei Zhengyuan Hebei 600 800 Coal May 2012‐2014

On and after 2013 total 17,865 28,690

2) Ammonium Sulfate (1000tpy)

Company Location Capacity Production Grade Construction Period

Remarks

Zhejiang Balin Hengyi Zhejiang 300 Caprolactam 2010‐2012 Put into production in Apr 2012Shandong Haili Shandong 300 Caprolactam 2010‐2012 Put into production in Mar 2012Shandong Fangming Shandong 160 Caprolactam 2010‐2012 Put into production in Oct 2012

2012 total 760

Datang Power Inner Mongolia 480 Ammonia desulfurization 2010‐2013 delayed Datang Power Liaoning 480 Ammonia desulfurization 2010‐2013 delayed Juhua Group Zhejiang 220 Caprolactam 2011‐2013Luxi Shandong 300 Caprolactam 2012‐2013Sinopec Baling Yueyang, Hunan 150 Caprolactam 2011‐2013 Caprolactam: expand of 100ktpyDNCC Jiangsu 600 Caprolactam 2012‐2014 Caprolactam: expand from 200ktpy to

400ktpy Lanhua Kechuang Shanxi 300 Caprolactam 2012‐2015Jilin Dadi Chemical Jilin 600 ‐‐ 2012‐2015Sinopec Baling Fuqing, Fujian 300 Caprolactam 2012‐Kailin Guizhou 5 tail gas absorption March.2012‐

3) Phosphate Fertilizer Project (1000tpy, Product)

Company Location Existing

DAP/MAP

New capacity

DAP/MAP

Construction Period Note

Hubei Sanning Hubei 0 300 Go into operation in Jan. 2011 New, DAP:300

Guangdong Zhanhua Guangdong 360 240 DAP

Wengfu 600 Completed in March 2011 DAP

Yunnan Xiangfeng Yunnan 200 600 2010‐2011 DAP

Yunnan Three‐circle Sinochem Yunnan 600 600 Go into operation in Nov. 2011

Leibo Yangfeng Sichuan 500 Completed in Aug. 2011 MAP

Wengfu 1600 600 Go into operation in Mar. 2011 DAP

2011 total 3,440

Company Location Existing DAP/MAP

New capacityDAP/MAP


CNOOC Dayukou Hubei 500 480 2010‐Apr. 2012 DAP

Jinyuan Chenguang Henan 80 120 To completed in Q1 2012

Shikefeng Leibo Sichuan 300 2009‐Jul. 2012 New, 2*150tpy

Hubei Yihua Hubei 840/500 560 2011‐Oct. 2012 2*280ktpy of DAP

Anhui Liuguo Anhui 600 400 Jan.2011‐Nov.2012 MAP: 160ktpy, DAP: 240ktpy,

Phosphoric Acid: 200ktpy, Sulfur: 400ktpy

Yidu Xingfa Chemical Co. Ltd. Hubei 600 Trial run in Dec. 2012 MAP: 400ktpy, DAP: 200ktpy

2012 total 2,460

Company Location Existing DAP/MAP

New capacityDAP/MAP


Fujian Zijin Mining Fujian 200 2010‐not announced DAP, under construction

Hubei Yichang Xinguan Hubei 100(MAP) 240 2010‐? DAP, under construction

China Bluechemical Bijie Guizhou 800 2011‐?

Qingping Phosphate Mining Sichuan 200 2010‐? DAP, new

Chongqing Huaqiang Chongqing 320 Proposed Expansion, MAP: 200, DAP: 120


Longlin Mining Sichuan 500 Proposed New

Win‐Win Group Chongqing 200 Dec.2009‐not announced DAP, renovation project

Sino‐Arab Chemical Fert. Hebei 600 2012 ‐ ?

Sichuan MeishanGuangyi Xinjiang 600 Jun 2012‐2013 DAP

Hubei Yangfeng Hubei 600 2012‐2014 DAP

On and after 2013 total 4,260

4) Potash Project (1000tpy, Product)

Company Location Potash Construction Period Note Migao Changchun 40 2011 SOP Sichuan Kaiyuan Laos 500 Not announced‐June 2011 MOP Lenghu Bingdi Qinghai 480 May 2009‐Nov. 2011 SOP Migao Shanghai 40 2007‐2011 New, high purity SOP

2011 total 1,060

Company Location Potash Construction Period Note SDIC Xinjiang Luobupo Xinjiang 1,200 April 2006‐May 2012 SOP Qinghai Saltlake Group Qinghai 100 June 2012 MOP

2012 total 1,300

Company Location Potash Construction Period Note Qinghai Saltlake Group Qinghai 1000 2011‐2013 MOP Qinghai Saltlake Group – Yuantong Qinghai 200 May 2007‐? NOP Zhejiang Lianda Qinghai 200 2012‐ to be announced NOP SinoAgri Mineral Laos 100 2008‐? MOP Sino‐lao Potash Mining Laos 50 Dec. 2008‐? MOP Sinohydro Mining (Laos) Ltd Laos 120 to be constructed Potash fertilizer Qinghai Saltlake Group – Develop. Qinghai 1000 2011‐? MOP Hongfeng Potash Fertilizer Sichuan 30 2007‐to be announced New, MOP Gree‐on Jilin 80 2012‐? SOP Qinghai Citic Guoan Technology Qinghai 300 May 2012‐ MOP

On and after 2013 total 3,080

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