cfo update mailers’ technical advisory committee meeting august 6, 2008 h. glen walker chief...
TRANSCRIPT
CFO UPDATEMailers’ Technical Advisory
Committee Meeting
August 6, 2008
H. Glen WalkerChief Financial Officer &Executive Vice President
AgendaAgenda
Financial Results
Volume Trends
Summary
Financial ResultsFinancial Results
Preliminary Income Statement Qtr III, FY 2008
Preliminary Income Statement Qtr III, FY 2008
Numbers may not add due to rounding.(Data in Millions)
-$453-$1,098Net Loss
18,838 19,018Expense
$18,385$17,920Revenue
SPLYActual51,387 48,537Volume
1.0%
-2.5%
%SPLY -5.5%
Var2,850
-$465
180
-$645
Preliminary Income Statement Qtr III YTD, FY 2008
Preliminary Income Statement Qtr III YTD, FY 2008
Numbers may not add due to rounding.(Data in Millions)
$572-$1,705-$1,133Operating Loss
235 58,118 58,353Operating Expense
$807$56,413$57,220Revenue
VarSPLYActual-6,286 161,518155,232Volume
0.4%
1.4%
%SPLY -3.9%
Prior-Year Escrow
Net Loss
$0
-$1,133
-$2,958
-$4,663
$2,958
$3,530
Total Stamp SalesTotal Stamp Sales
121
409
292223 208
162 172126
176 179
275343
546 565
247
670
745
527 562649
609
708
867
671 580 497
423485
444
1088
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08
Forever Stamps Denominated Stamps
$ Millions
USPS PerspectiveUSPS Perspective
External Environment
Accelerated deterioration in the housing and financial industries
Government stimulus package had some positive impacts early in the quarter, but evaporated by June 2008
Economic forecasts continued to decline as the slowdown spread to many other sectors of the economy
Inflation, driven by fuel prices, increased dramatically
USPS Perspective USPS Perspective
How are we responding?
Reducing costs beyond the $1 billion annual target
Anticipating cost reductions of $2.0 - $2.5 billion for fiscal year 2008
Growing the shipping business and international services
Improving Service
USPS Perspective USPS Perspective
Improving Service
Record setting service performance in the 3rd quarter
Overnight: From 96% SPLY to 97% on time
Two Day: From 93% SPLY to 95% on time
Three Day: From 91% SPLY to 94% on time
4th Quarter Expectations
No recovery expected
Accelerate focus on cost reductions – 80% of cost is labor related
Significant loss for the year is anticipated
USPS Perspective USPS Perspective
Volume TrendsVolume Trends
Preliminary Qtr III 2008 VolumePreliminary Qtr III 2008 Volume
Volume % SPLY First-Class 22.3B -5.5%
Standard 23.2B -5.5%Periodicals 2.2B -3.3%
Priority 202M -5.9%
Package Svc 252M -2.7%
Total All Mail 48.5B -5.5%
Express 12M -14.3%
Preliminary Qtr III YTD FY 2008 VolumePreliminary Qtr III YTD FY 2008 Volume
Volume % SPLY First-Class 70.3B -4.2%
Standard 75.4B -3.7%Periodicals 6.6B -2.2%
Priority 661M -5.0%
Package Svc 850M -3.4%
Total All Mail 155.2B -3.9%
Express 37M -13.2%
Total Mail VolumeTotal Mail Volume
2.7% 2.4%
-1.5%
2.3% 2.3%
-0.6%-1.3%
-2.1%-3.0%-3.3%
-5.5%
-0.3%-0.1%
2.2%1.7%1.2%
5.4%
2.0%
3.5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3*
8 Quarter Moving Average Growth Rates
FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007FY 2004 FY 2008
% SPLY*Preliminary
First-Class Mail VolumeFirst-Class Mail Volume
0.3%
-4.0%
1.2%-0.1%
-2.5%-1.3%
-2.6%-3.9%
-3.1%
-5.5%
-0.6%-0.5%
-1.1%-2.4%
2.1%
-1.3% -0.6%
1.6%
-0.8%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3*
8 Quarter Moving Average Growth Rates
FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007FY 2004 FY 2008
% SPLY*Preliminary
Standard Mail VolumeStandard Mail Volume
-0.7%
9.3%
4.9%
-1.4%
-5.5%
-3.0%
1.2%
-0.9%
2.8%2.7%
0.2%
4.6%4.1%
7.9%7.6% 8.4%
4.4%
0.5%
-2.6%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3*
8 Quarter Moving Average Growth RatesFY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007FY 2004 FY 2008
% SPLY*Preliminary
Periodicals VolumePeriodicals Volume
0.9%
-5.3%
-2.6%-4.3%
-3.3%
-3.0%
-2.2%
-0.5%
-0.6%
0.3% 0.1%0.2%
-0.7%-3.1%-3.5%
1.9%
-3.3%
-1.8%
1.2%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3*
8 Quarter Moving Average Growth RatesFY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007FY 2004 FY 2008
% SPLY*Preliminary
First-Class Mail Volume Q3 YTD ShapeFirst-Class Mail Volume Q3 YTD Shape
Growth from SPLY
-3.4-2.6
-5.0-3.6
-15.3 -14.6-16.2
-15.3
QTR 1 QTR 2 QTR 3 YTD
Letters Flats
Standard Mail Volume Q3 YTD ShapeStandard Mail Volume Q3 YTD Shape
Growth from SPLY
4.32.6
-1.2
2.0
-13.1 -12.5 -13.3 -13.0
QTR 1 QTR 2 QTR 3 YTD
Letters Flats
Summary Summary
Economic environment has been very poor for fiscal year 2008
High inflation driven by fuel increases
Anticipated record high COLAs in September 2008 and March 2009
CFO UPDATEMailers’ Technical Advisory
Committee Meeting
August 6, 2008
H. Glen WalkerChief Financial Officer &Executive Vice President