cfwi mbs horizon scanning strategy and approach
TRANSCRIPT
Rafael Popper, Ian Miles
Barbara Jones, Ozcan Saritas
November 2010
Drivers are factors that are liable to substantially influence qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of the
future health and social care workforce
TEEPSE DRIVERS OF WORKFORCE (demand and/or supply)
Emerging issues / new
technologies, innovations
Practices /
Skills
Policies /
Approaches
Services
Critical mass /
Key stakeholders
H
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Variables & dimensions for horizon scanning & modelling activities
Gather
Exploit
Assimilate
Disseminate
Design
Implement
Support
Shape
Engage
Mobilise
Other
systems
MBS Horizon Scanning Strategy for CfWI
MBS Horizon-Scanning Approach
• Step 1: Scanning key trajectories in the iHomeCare pathway– Current TEEPSE Drivers of workforce demand/supply– Future TEEPSE Drivers of workforce demand/supply– Current & Future Issues
• Step 2: Scanning key dimensions of the iHomeCare pathway– Technologies– Practices and Skills– Policies– Services– Stakeholders
• Step 3: Scanning possible futures for the iHomeCare pathway– Life systems– Home systems– Health & social care systems
Chronic cases Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Acute cases Scenario 3 Scenario 4
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2
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Step 1: CfWI HS
0
1
2
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T E E P S E
CD1 CD2 CDn
0
1
2
3
4
5
T E E P S E
FD1 FD2 FDn
Key Drivers 1
Key Drivers 2
Potential Drivers 3
Current Drivers (CD)
Future Drivers (FD)
TEEPSETaxonomy
Current Drivers
Emerging & Future Drivers
WorkforceIssues
Technological- Shaping supply- Shaping demand
- Shaping supply- Shaping demand
- Current issues- Future issues
Economic- Shaping supply- Shaping demand
- Shaping supply- Shaping demand
- Current issues- Future issues
Environmental- Shaping supply- Shaping demand
- Shaping supply- Shaping demand
- Current issues- Future issues
Political- Shaping supply- Shaping demand
- Shaping supply- Shaping demand
- Current issues- Future issues
Social- Shaping supply- Shaping demand
- Shaping supply- Shaping demand
- Current issues- Future issues
Ethics/Values- Shaping supply- Shaping demand
- Shaping supply- Shaping demand
- Current issues- Future issues
Step 2: CfWI HS
Current/Future Technologies
Current/Future Practices and Skills
Current/Future Policies
Current/Future Services
Current/Future StakeholdersPrevention
Screening&
Diagnosis
Treatment
Monitoring&
Reporting
Opportunities
Threats
Inhibiting
factors
Enabling
factors
Step 3: CfWI HS
Health & Social care systems
•Technologies
•Practices & Skills
•Policies
• Services
• Stakeholders
Home systems
•Technologies
•Practices & Skills
•Policies
•Services
•Stakeholders
Lifesystems
•Cardiovascular
•Digestive
•Endocrine
•Excretory
• Immune
• Integumentary
•Muscular
•Nervous
•Reproductive
•Respiratory
• Skeletal
iHo
me
Ca
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A1
A2
C1
C2
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2
3
4
Birth
Death
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A1
A2
C1
C2
Condition A1
Condition A2
Condition C1
Condition C2
HS Scenarios
Ch
ron
ic &
Acu
te C
on
dit
ion
sCare for the elderly is a movingconcept…65+ today?? in 2030
• Step 1: Ready…– Key TEEPSE drivers of workforce supply/demand
– Key current/future workforce issues
• Step 2: Steady…– Key shapers (e.g. technologies, etc.) of the selected pathway
– Key opportunities and threats for the workforce
• Step 3: Go!– Pilot scenarios of iHomeCare on Acute Conditions
– Pilot scenarios of iHomeCare on Chronic Conditions
– Practical Guide on HORIZON SCANNING for CfWI