8/9/20151CHNG 2:O LNG THU NHPQUC GIAI.Mc tiu v cng c ca KT v mIII.Thu nhp v chi tiu ca nn kinh tIII o lng tng sn phm quc ni III.o lng tng sn phm quc niIV.Cc thnh phn ca GDPV.GDP thc v GDP danh nghaVI.Cc ch tiu trong h thng ti khon quc gia (SNA)1 Tran Th Bich Dung L thc o thnh tu kinh thng nm ca mt quc gia L c s hoch nh cc chnh schkinh t v mChnh ph nh hng n sc mua caton x hiThu nhp quc giaTranTh Bich Dung2 g sc ua ca to L c s DN hoch nh chin lc kinh doanh Doanh nghip Phn nh tng thu nhp C hi vic lmNgi dn2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Tng s ( t USD)84,72 111,33 143,41 127,05 157,08 203,66 228,31 263,49Xut khu 39,83 48,56 62,69 57,1 72,24 96,91 114,53 132,18Nhp khu 44,89 62,77 80,72 69,95 84,84 106,75 113,78 131,31Cn cn thngmi -5,06 -14,21 -18,03 -12,85 -12,6 -9,84 0,75 0,87% gia tng trongtng s22,4 31,4 28,8 -11,4 23,6 29,7 12,115,4%gia tng XK22,7 21,9 29,1 -8,9 26,5 34,2 18,215,422 1 39 8 28 6 13 3 21 3 25 8 6 6Tnh hnh xut nhp khu giai on 2006-2014Tran Th Bich Dung3% gia tng NK22,1 39,8 28,6 -13,3 21,3 25,8 6,615,42014Tng s ( t $) 298Xut khu 150Nhp khu 148CCTM (NX) 2% gia tng trongtng s%gia tng XK 13,6% gia tng NK12,Tng trng GDP (%)lm pht(%)%tit kim/GDP%u t/GDPTc tng M2 %chi NSCP/GDP1998 5,8 9,2 23,77 29,05 25,57 20,341999 4,8 0,1 27,35 27,63 39,28 21,212000 6,8 -0,6 31,25 29,61 56,25 22,592001 6,9 0,8 31,3 31,17 25,53 24,372002 7,1 4 32,53 33,22 17,65 24,162003 7,3 3 31,49 35,44 24,94 26,432004 7,8 9,5 33,46 35,47 29,45 26,19Mt s ch tiu kinh t Vit Nam giai on 1998- 2014TranTh Bich Dung4, , , , , ,2005 8,4 8,4 34,7 35,57 29,74 27,32006 8,2 6,6 35,11 36,81 33,59 27,552007 8,5 12,6 36,19 43,13 46,12 29,412008 6,3 19,9 31,24 39,71 20,31 27,732009 5,3 6,52 29,25 38,13 28,99 31,82010 6,8 11,75 30,95 38,88 33,3 30,662011 5,9 18,13 27 34,6 11,94 31,382012 5,03 6,81 30 33,5 19.8 27,832013 5,19 6,04 30 30,4 20 27,512014 5,98 4,09 31TNH HNH TNG TRNG KINH T VIT NAMNmT l gia tng dnsT l gia tngGDPT l gia tngGDP/ngi2001 1,4 6,89 5,492002 1,3 7,08 5,742005 1,17 7,79 6,622007 1,09 8,46 7,372008 1 07 6 34 5 27 2008 1,07 6,34 5,272009 1,06 5,32 4,262010 1,05 6,78 5,732011 1,04 5,89 4,852012 1,06 5,03 3,972013 1,1 5,19 4,092014 1,08 5,98 4,95 Tran Th Bich Dung Tc tng trng kinh t Vit Nam(2000-2014)TranTh Bich Dung68/9/20152TranTh Bich Dung7Cc ch tiu ch yuVN nm 2014 Kim ngch XK tng khong 10%. Tng sn phm quc ni(GDP) tng khong 5,8%. T l nhp siu khong 6%kim ngch XK Tc tng gi tiu dng (CPI) khong 7%. Tng vn u t pht trin ton x hi khong 30% GDP. T l h ngho gim 1,7%-2%, ring cc huyn ngho gim 4%. To vic lm cho khong 1,6 triu lao ng. T l tht nghip khu vc thnh th di 4%. T l lao ng qua o to t 52%. T l tr em di 5 tui b suy dinh dng gim xung di 15,5%. S ging bnh trn mt vn dn t 22,5 ging. T l c s gy nhim mi trng nghim trng c x l t 85%. T l Khu CN, khu CX ang hot ng c h thng x l nc thi tp trung t tiu chun mi trng t 80%. T l che ph rng t 41,5%. TranTh Bich Dung8Cc ch tiuthc hin nm 2014 GDP danh ngha(GDPn)= 3.937.856 t ng 184 t USD, tnh theo t gi ngy 31/12/2014 l 21.400 ng/USD., tng trng g= 5,98%. Dn s= 90,73 triu ngi GDP bnh qun u ngi = 2.028 USD Kim ngch XK tng13,6%. Cn cn thng mai thng d 2 t USD Tc tng gi tiu dng (CPI) 4,09%. Tng vn u t pht trin ton x hi : 31% GDP. T l h h l 8 2% i 1 6 i % T l h ngho l 8,2%, gim 1,6 im %, To vic lm cho 0.8 triu lao ng. Nng sut trung bnh=74,3 triu ng/l=3.515 USD/l, tng 4,3% Tng thu NS= 814 nghn t ng ( 38,5 t USD) Tng chi NS = 968,5 nghn t ng ( 45,8 t USD) Thm ht NS=-154,5 nghn t ng ( -7,3 t USD) C 74.842 DN mi thnh lp Khong 67.823 DN gii th & ngng hot ngTran Th Bich Dung9Cn cn thng miVN 2014 Cn cn thng mai thng dNX= X-M=2 t USD Xut khu X =150 t USD Nhp khu M =148 t USDT Trong : Khu vc FDI: X=101,6t $; M=84,5t$, NX=17,1t$ DN trong nc: X=48,4t $; M=63,5t$, NX=-15,1t$TranTh Bich Dung10Cc ch tiuKH ch yuVN nm 2015 Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP) tng khong 6,2%. Kim ngch XK tng khong 10%. T l nhp siu khong 5% kim ngch XK Tc tng gi tiu dng (CPI) khong 5%. Tng vn u t pht trin ton x hi khong 30-32% GDP. T l h ngho gim 1,7%-2%, ring cc huyn ngho gim 4%. To vic lm cho khong 1,6 triu lao ng. g , g T l tht nghip khu vc thnh th di 4%. T l lao ng qua o to t 50%. T l tr em di 5 tui b suy dinh dng gim xung di 15%. S ging bnh trn mt vn dn t 23,5 ging. T l c s gy nhim mi trng nghim trng c x l t 90%. T l Khu CN, khu CX ang hot ng c h thng x l nc thi tp trung t tiu chun mi trng t 82%. T l che ph rng t 42%. Tran Th Bich Dung11I.Mc tiu v cng c ca KT v m Mc tiu ca kinh t v m: a.Hiu qu b.n nh c.Cng bng d.Tng trngTranTh Bich Dung78/9/20153I.Mc tiu v cng c ca KT v mMc tiu c th ca kinh t v m1. Sn lng quc gia thc t ngang bng mc sn lng tim nng2. Tc tng trng cao v bn vng3. To y vic lm, khng ch t l tht nghip mc t nhin 4. n nh gi c, kim sot c lm pht mc va phi5. n nh t ga hi oi, cn cn thng mi &cn cn thanh ton thun li6. Mc sng trung bnh c ci thin7.Tnh hnh ti chnh chnh ph vng mnhTranTh Bich Dung131.Sn lng quc gia thc t ngang bngmc sn lng tim nngSn lng tim nng( mong mun)Yp:L sn lng m nn kinh t t c tng ng vit l tht nghip t nhin t l tht nghip t nhinv t l lm pht va. Theo thi gian, kh nng sn xut ca nn kinh t c xu hng tng ln Yp cng c xu hng tngTranTh Bich Dung14 S chnh lch gia Y v Yp to ra cc l hng (gap) sn lng: L hng suy thoi (Recessionary gap): xut hin khi Y < Yp L hng lm pht(Inflationary Gap) : xut hin g p ( a o a y Gap) u khi Y > Yp m t s thng trm ca Y, cc nh kinh t a ra khi nim chu k kinh tTranTh Bich Dung15EABDChu k KTYYpHng thnhYp3Y0YTranTh Bich Dung16tBCt0 t3t1Suy thoiPhchiHng thnht2Yp02.Tc tng trng kinh t(g) cao & bnvng L t l phn trm gia tng hng nm Ca sn lng quc gia thcTc tng trng kinh t bnh qun hng nm trong gia thc hay ca thu nhp bnh qun u ngi100 *11YY Ygtt ttTranTh Bich Dung17hng nm trong giai on( 1-t) c tnh:100 * ) 1 ( 111 tttYYgTc tng trng kinh t(g): VD1: GDPR2010= 100 t $ GDPR2011= 105 t$ VD2:% 5 1008080 842011 gVD2: GDPR2012= 100 GDPR2014= 121% 10 100 * ) 1100121(22014 2012 gTranTh Bich Dung188/9/20154Tc tng trng ca thu nhp bnh qun u ngi Thu nhp bnh qun u ngi hng nm:POPPCIGDPTranTh Bich Dung19POP gPCI = gGDP gPOPNu Y tng lin tc u vi t l tng trng hng nm l gTh s nm t Y tng gp i lg70t Nguyn tc 70TranTh Bich Dung20Thi gian bin Y tng gp i:khng ph thuc vo gi tr ban u ca Y,ch ph thuc vo gTng trng kinh t(g) cao v bn vng: Khi tc tng trng g mc tiu 2015 ca VN gGDP= 6,2% Tc tng trng dn s l gPOP =1,1% Th gPCI= 6,2 1,1 =5,1% Th gPCI 6,21,15,1% Bao nhiu nm PCI tng gp i? t= 70/5,1 =13,7 nm Nu g= 7%?Tran Th Bich Dung21Tiu chun phn lainm 2007:Da vo thu nhp bnh qun u ngi hng nm : Thu nhp cao( high Income):PCI 11.000$ Thu nhp trung bnh cao ( Middle high Income): PCI=5000 - 10.999$ Thu nhp trung bnh thp ( Middle low Income); Thu nhp trung bnh thp ( Middle low Income); PCI=900- 4.999$ Thu nhp thp( low Income):PCI 0: lm phtIfM NX> 0 :Thng d thng mi(Xut siu)X