Challenges and Opportunities in

Global Raw Materials Market

Barbaros COREKOGLUMarkets, Trade & Sustainability

28 June 2016Porto, Portugal

Outline

• COCERAL facts and figures

• Global Market Situation – Global Weather Conditions

– Global Grain Supply and Demand

– Grain Stocks and Prices

• European Union – General picture: Grain Production, Exports and Stocks; import needs

• Global Developments

• Challenges to Sourcing & Alternatives

• Policy Challenges

TEXT HERE

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30 Member Associations 19 EU countries2 Associated: Switzerland and Serbia2700 companies

26 Member Associations 18 EU countries

Associated Members- Switzerland- Serbia- Euromalt- Euromaisiers

1 Extraordinary Member- Gafta

3500 Companies

EU association representing the trade with cereals, oilseeds, rice, feedstuffs, olive oil and agrosupply

Grain merchants, storekeeper and/or international traders

4

Seasonal temperature anomaly during yield formation

Source: Thomson Reuters

2016 Global Outlook for Crops

Global Grain Supply and Demand

Source: IGC May Report

Global Market Situation World: Grain Stocks and Stocks-To-Use

15.3%

35.5%

31.7%

17.0%

22.2%24.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

72/7

3

74/7

5

76/7

7

78/7

9

80/8

1

82/8

3

84/8

5

86/8

7

88/8

9

90/9

1

92/9

3

94/9

5

96

/97

98/9

9

00/0

1

02/0

3

04/0

5

06/0

7

08/0

9

10/1

1

12

/13

14/1

5

16/1

7

Mio

. t

Endbestand (Mio. t)

Verhältnis Endbestand zumVerbrauch, %

Global Ending Stocks Converging…

Source: World Agri S&D Estimates, June, FAS

EU Grains:Competitive and very comfortable situation

(mln t)

31 2742 44

30 30 25 27 34 35 34

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Production

Exports

Ending Stocks

EU Oilseeds:Structural deficit continues (mln t)

Production: 33 million tonnes (of which 22 mln tonnes of rapeseed) Imports: 16 million tonnes (of which 13 mln tonnes of soybeans) + circa. 19 million tonnes of soybean meal per annum

Changing times, challenging times…

Bigger, but slower…

9.7 billion by 2050

Trade – ever more important…

…at times of shifting sands

China policies build stocks

Source: USDA

Russia emerging as exporter

…at times of shifting sands

Brazil exports revised upwards

Source: USDA

“Stock” Taking• Climate change & increased weather variability

• Limited new land area & no deforestation

• Embracing new technologies

– Improve plants’ resistance to increased pest hazards including weeds, insects, disease and too wet, too dry, too cold, too hot

• Zero threshold and tolerance

– Zero tolerance policy and asynchronous authorizations bear unbearable legal compliance risks

– 1 incident = 50,000 tons corn/soy shipment = circa €25 ml loss

• Increased financial risk

– Increased scrutiny & limitations to hedging

• Letting trade work for the collective benefit

– Low level presence

• Electrification of vehicles vs. animal feed

• Global gap in digestibility of meals

COCERAL:

Working together to make trade work

Thank you for your attentionWebsite: http://www.coceral.com

E-mail: secretariat@coceral.com