““Challenges andChallenges andOpportunities”Opportunities”

Presented by:

Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon

Chancellor,

Dallas County Community College District

Purpose of Presentation

To establish a framework that sets in motion a more strategic approach to planning district-wide

To identify Key Challenges

To identify Key Opportunities

“Nothing Nothing influences a state’s prosperity more than the education of its

people.”

SREB Goals for Education: Challenge to Lead, 2002

Dallas County represents * 15% of Texas labor force * 11% of Texas population

PrimaryPrimary Enrollment Drivers

Population

Demographics

Economic Conditions Unemployment Rate (used as indicator)

U.S. Regional Growthby 2025

South and West will comprise majority of growth

Northeast 17.1% Midwest 20.7% West 26% South 36.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population More specifically,

1990 2000 2010Dallas 1,852,810 2,218,899 2,697,280

Texas 16,986,510 20,851,820 25,897,018

U.S. 248,709,873 281,421,906 321,102,935

% Change1990-2000 2000-2010

Dallas 19.8% 21.6%

Texas 22.8% 24.2%

U.S. 13.1% 14.1%

Source: Texas State Data Center , U.S. Census Bureau

Population (cont.)

(In millions)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

?

?

Dallas County

614,799

+ 3,200,000

Source: Texas State Data Center

Demographics

Anglo

52%

Hispanic

32%

Afr-Am 12%

OthersAsian

Anglo

69%Afr-Am 12%

Hispanic 13%

OthersAsian

US TexasTexas

2000 Census

Source: Texas State Data Center , U.S. Census Bureau

Demographics (cont.)

Dallas County by Ethnicity

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Anglo

Afri-American

Hispanic

All Others

Total

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0(in millions)

Source: Texas State Data Center

Demographics (cont.)

High School Graduate (or higher)

Dallas = 75%Dallas = 75% Texas = 75.7%, ranked 45th in U.S

Bachelor’s Degree (or higher) Dallas = 27%Dallas = 27% Texas = 23.3%, ranked 27th in U.S.

Educational Attainment

Source: Texas State Data Center , U.S. Census Bureau

Demographics (cont.)Dallas County Public School Students (K-12)

by Ethnicity, 2002-03

#Students 49,755 199,479 64,102 115,070

Total Students = 428,406

0

10,00020,000

30,00040,000

50,000

60,00070,000

80,00090,000

100,000

Pre-1st 1-6 7-8 9-12

Afr-Am

Hispanic

All Others

Anglo

Level

Source: Texas Education Agency

DCCCD Growth by College 1992-2002

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1992 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2002

CVC

BHC EFC

ECC

MVC *

NLC

RLC+

Fall Credit Students

Source: DCCCD Facts Brief

DCCCDDCCCD Credit Students Gender

FemaleFemale = 58% Male = 42%• Majority female since the 1980’s

Age Average = 28 yrs, Median = 24 yrs

• Somewhat constant since the 1990’s

Source: DCCCD Facts Brief

DCCCD (cont.) Ethnicity

Increasing Diversity

Anglo

Others

Asian

Hispanic

Afri-Am22%

44%9%

20.5%

4%

Anglo

Afri-Am

All Others <2%

Asian

Hispanic

17% 65%

11%

6%

Fall 1992 Fall 2002Fall 2002

55,000 students 60,000 students

Source: DCCCD Facts Brief

Enrollment Forecast

% Change AngloAfrican-

American HispanicAll

Others Total2000-10 3.8 21.5 48.8 50.7 21.22010-20 -3.3 8.9 36.7 47.0 15.52020-30 -1.2 6.1 40.0 43.4 20.5

% Change in Projected Texas Texas

Community College Enrollments

Source: Texas State Data Center

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.50

3.0

3.5

DCCCD Enrollment Forecasts

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

DCCCD Fall Credit Students

2010 20201970 19901980 2000

Population (in millions)

UnknownsUnknowns (and likely to encourage additional growth)

Minority participation rates Increased university tuition

Closing the Gap (GAP) Target = 89,000

Age Cohort Participation (ACP) Estimate = 74,000

Fall 2015

Forecasts (cont.)

The EconomyThe Economy

but, History has taught us. . .

UnknownsUnknowns Caps (limits) on university freshmen class

admissions Aging Boomers and life-long learning Increased need for more post-secondary and

technical education training

DCCCD Lessons Learned

Strong Economy (low unemp rate) credit course demand tends to decrease

Weak Economy (high unemp rate) credit course demand tends to INCREASENCREASE

from the 1990’s to Present

Job Creation & Skills Needed2000-2020

80% of the jobs created will require more post-secondary education and technical training

Top 10 fastest growing jobs are in two areas Information (and related) Health Care (and related)

Lessons (cont.)

All All impacted by weak economy, but Students mostmost vulnerable

• part-time• recently unemployed and under employed• adults• under-prepared• under-served

How the Economy Impacts How the Economy Impacts FundingFunding

State and local revenue sources fluctuate with the economy

In the past, a strong economy has generally supported growth

Competition for resources creates uncertainty!

Economic Comparisons

Strong Economy Dallas unemp lowerlower than state

1998 Avg Unemployment: Dallas = 3.2%Dallas = 3.2% Texas = 4.8%

Historically, during a . . .

Weak Economy Dallas unemp higherhigher than state

2002 Avg Unemployment: Dallas = 7.1%Dallas = 7.1% Texas = 6.3%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

How do these lessons about funding impact the present and

future of theDallas County Community College Dallas County Community College

District?District?

The Bottom Line

As DCCCD credit demand continues to grow, state funding has declined and future stable funding is

uncertain!

State Funding Trends FY1966 - FY2003

Texas Appropriations for Higher Educationper $1,000 of Personal Income

FY 1966 FY 2003

14

12

10

8

6

Source: Postsecondary Education, OPPORTUNITY, Dec 2002

State Appropriation Contribution Ratio

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1982 1990 1995 2000

Pct of Total Educational & General Expenditures

(High)

1984 = 73.4%

est. 2003 = 35.9%

2004 = 36.5%

2002 = 40.3%

DCCCD,1982 - 2004

Source: DCCCD 2002-03 Approved Budget

DCCCD Challenges Economic fluctuations Competition for state and local $ Increased need for an educated and

trained workforce Need to “increase capacity” to meet

demand Changing demographics, technology

and workplace

DCCCD Opportunities Increasing

Population Diversity of Population Need to “expand capacity” to meet student,

community and business demand for a skilled workforce

Enrollment in higher ed (majority of Texas freshmen/sophomores are in community colleges)

Anywhere & Anytime Learning

Preparing and Planning

The challenge of funding The challenge of change The challenge of maintaining quality

programs and services

Toward our Future . . .

Preparing and Planning

The opportunity to continue to shape how DCCCD serves its communities

The opportunity to take greater control of our future

The opportunity to be a greater force in shaping Dallas County, the state of Texas and our nation

Toward our Future . . .

The Future is Ours to Shape . . .

We should always be cognizant that

“People will always pay for qualityquality”!

(a quote from my dad who owned a dry cleaning establishment)