Change in Traffic on NYS Bridges, Thruway and Roads

Stanley Gee, Active Commissioner

Published January 2010V 1.21

Overview

In an attempt to provide a snapshot of how traffic may be changing on an ongoing basis, traffic volumes from a variety of locations have been summarized to provide monthly and year to date changes at individual locations or in the aggregate for the facility types. This comparison is similar in many ways to how FHWA reports changes in “Monthly Traffic Trends” for states, regions and the country.

Changes in vehicle volumes crossing New York State Bridge, MTA Bridge and Tunnel Authority facilities (internal to NYS), Port Authority of NY and NJ facilities (connecting NYS to NJ), International Bridge Crossings (connecting NYS to Canada) and active New York State continuous count sites volumes, which are submitted monthly to FHWA, have been examined.

The data from these facilities are collected 24/7 as they are in continuous operations albeit some are toll facilities. All of the bridge and tunnel facility types are reported showing their volumes at each facility. The NYS continuous count sites are presented differently. The continuous count sites number more than 170 and sometimes they experience data failures that prevent the recording of traffic volumes, while revenue collection facilities operate all the time. These data failures preclude direct comparison as is possible with the bridges, tunnels and the NYS Thruway.

Bridge & Tunnel Authorities: Port Authority of New York & New Jersey, New York State Bridge Authority, MTA Bridge and Tunnel Authority, international crossings and the New York State Thruway.

The basic method is to compare two time periods.

(1) Year to date values are calculated up to the current month are then compared to year to date values for the previous month.

(2)The current month is compared to the same month in the previous year.

There are two presentations of the data: the most current common month and the most recent month for which data is available.

NYS Continuous Count Stations

The New York State continuous count stations vary in volume size (ranging from low to high volume) differing geographic location and areas of population density, and facility type (functional classification of the roadway) as such, they are not simply summed together to provide a measure of change. Individual continuous count sites are also subject to occasional equipment failure, removal and addition of new sites, as a result simple additive and percent comparisons could be misleading.

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If one were to view the continuous count sites as a market basket of volume observations in much the same way the Consumer Price Index is used as a barometer of the change in a market basket of goods, then a comparable weighted measure could be designed to help mitigate these factors.

The continuous count sites are grouped by Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) volume group and urban type (urban, small urban and rural) categories.

These groups are then weighted based upon their share from a similarly constructed table from HPMS of AADT by volume group and area type.

A monthly paired comparison of continuous count sites is used to enable comparison of a consistent grouping of stations for different time periods. This way the problem of having stations that do not report is resolved.

An index similar to the Laspeyres Index used in the CPI calculation is then created, which uses a base year to account for change between periods.

The index is then calculated and weighted by the share of HPMS VMT by functional class (which has been stable over long periods of time). This then helps to properly weight the index to more accurately reflex travel volumes statewide. This is done to ensure that the contribution of the individual volume groups by functional class represents the distribution of traffic described by the HPMS statewide estimate.

The percentage change between any two periods in the final index then represents a balanced estimate of the change in travel statewide. The index is neither designed nor intended to provide a measure of the magnitude for continuous count site volumes nor serve as an estimate of statewide VMT. The index is simply a measure of change, the same way the CPI is a measure of change in the cost of the market basket of goods that it is based upon.

VMT is estimated through the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). HPMS is an annual compilation of system level performance measures. As such it relies on expanded samples and multi year short count volume measurement adjusted to the current year, which is different then comparing change at 170+ continuous sites as a market basket composite.

Equally important is how bridges and tunnels are considered. Often these represent constriction points within the network and may or may not be a fair representation of overall travel if no other toll or free alternatives exist. The next four figures show facility locations for MTA, Port Authority, NYSBA, Canadian Crossings and the NYS Thruway.

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MTA BRIDGES AND TUNNELS NY-NJ PORT AUTHORITY BRIDGES

NEW YORK CITY AUTHORITY FACILITIES

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4

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New York State Thruway and Continuous Count Sites

Continuous Count SitesNYS Thruway

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Bridge Name 1/09 to 9/09 1/08 to 9/08 9/09 9/08% ∆ % ∆

Change in Traffic on NYS Bridges, Thruway and RoadsMonthly ChangeYear to Date

MTA Bridge & Tunnel VolumesBRONX WHITESTONE BRIDGE 32,499,252 32,022,924 3,593,326 3,534,1721.5% 1.7%BROOKLYN BATTERY TUNNEL 12,288,282 14,004,715 1,326,216 1,429,366-12.3% -7.2%CROSS BAY BRIDGE 5,822,155 5,921,892 642,959 635,769-1.7% 1.1%HENRY HUDSON BRIDGE 16,865,949 18,072,144 1,914,254 1,896,604-6.7% 0.9%MARINE PARKWAY BRIDGE 6,093,536 6,078,438 680,923 661,1870.2% 3.0%QUEENS MIDTOWN TUNNEL 21,004,411 22,217,487 2,379,343 2,410,409-5.5% -1.3%THROGS NECK BRIDGE 29,524,039 31,846,729 3,381,237 3,357,875-7.3% 0.7%TRIBOROUGH BRONX 21,906,478 22,258,594 2,435,083 2,345,380-1.6% 3.8%TRIBOROUGH MANHATTAN 23,728,402 25,715,823 2,713,606 2,680,787-7.7% 1.2%VERRAZANO NARROWS BRIDGE 52,112,530 53,490,652 5,771,758 5,681,642-2.6% 1.6%

221,845,034 231,629,398 24,838,705 24,633,191-4.2% 0.8%TOTAL

Mid-Hudson Bridge VolumesTAPPAN ZEE BRIDGE 36,138,068 37,898,166 4,116,844 4,037,860-4.6% 2.0%NEWBURGH BEACON BRIDGE 18,650,750 19,166,814 2,110,810 2,059,156-2.7% 2.5%MID-HUDSON BRIDGE 10,230,800 10,489,808 1,190,180 1,164,294-2.5% 2.2%KINGSTON RHINECLIFF BRIDGE 5,779,434 5,710,818 666,662 643,7001.2% 3.6%BEAR MOUNTAIN BRIDGE 4,918,702 4,868,374 578,450 548,8701.0% 5.4%RIP VAN WINKLE BRIDGE 4,102,952 4,081,370 484,972 465,5860.5% 4.2%

79,820,706 82,215,350 9,147,918 8,919,466-2.9% 2.6%TOTAL

Port Authority Bridge VolumesGEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE 78,420,656 81,083,224 8,725,360 8,618,184-3.3% 1.2%LINCOLN TUNNEL 30,223,500 32,702,502 3,397,286 3,393,022-7.6% 0.1%HOLLAND TUNNEL 24,886,342 25,889,264 2,721,222 2,720,012-3.9% 0.0%OUTERBRIDGE CROSSING 22,410,820 23,622,164 2,504,472 2,434,494-5.1% 2.9%GOETHALS BRIDGE 21,289,770 21,324,068 2,388,880 2,288,664-0.2% 4.4%BAYONNE BRIDGE 5,253,752 5,960,176 587,232 606,770-11.9% -3.2%

182,484,840 190,581,398 20,324,452 20,061,146-4.2% 1.3%TOTAL

Canadian Bridge VolumesPEACE BRIDGE 4,550,449 5,054,039 524,724 536,570-10.0% -2.2%LEWISTON-QUEENSTON BRIDGE 2,750,485 3,022,626 288,071 301,930-9.0% -4.6%RAINBOW BRIDGE 2,199,807 2,450,550 263,444 278,934-10.2% -5.6%SEAWAY INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE 775,699 1,951,454 0 9,691-60.3% -100.0%THOUSAND ISLANDS BRIDGE 1,567,428 1,641,597 186,146 178,638-4.5% 4.2%OGDENSBURG BRIDGE 425,016 400,276 48,544 49,0776.2% -1.1%WHIRLPOOL RAPIDS BRIDGE 232,893 186,049 31,048 28,51525.2% 8.9%

12,501,777 14,706,591 1,341,977 1,383,355-15.0% -3.0%TOTAL

Type of Volume

New York State Thruway Volumes

1/09 to 9/09 1/08 to 9/08 9/09 9/08% ∆ % ∆Monthly ChangeYear to Date

TOTAL PASSENGER TRIPS 167,763,922 171,761,496 19,180,358 18,479,376-2.3% 3.8%TOTAL COMMERCIAL TRIPS 18,185,067 20,860,359 2,130,579 2,272,848-12.8% -6.3%TOTAL NON-REVENUE TRIPS 1,313,971 1,351,551 158,451 153,721-2.8% 3.1%

187,262,960 193,973,406 21,469,388 20,905,945-3.5% 2.7%TOTAL

NYSDOT Continous Count Sites

Continuous Sites Index 1/09 to 9/09 1/08 to 9/08 9/09 9/08% ∆ % ∆Monthly ChangeYear to Date

Computed Index and Overall Change 128.6-0.5% 0.8%1,078.8 1,084.7 127.6

Note: Bridges with smaller volumes can experience large percentage changes year from one period to the next. Note: Bridge aggregate and funnel traffic to one point and therefore may not accurately represent traffic.

Most Recent Common Month1/25/2010Report generated on:

Bridge Name 10/08 to 9/09 10/07 to 9/089/09 9/08

Change in Traffic on NYS Bridges, Thruway and RoadsMonthly Change Year Ending in Month

vs. vs.

-14% -13% -12% -11% -10% -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

CROSS BAY BRIDGEMARINE PARKWAY BRIDGE

BROOKLYN BATTERY TUNNELHENRY HUDSON BRIDGE

QUEENS MIDTOWN TUNNELTRIBOROUGH BRONX

TRIBOROUGH MANHATTANTHROGS NECK BRIDGE

BRONX WHITESTONE BRIDGEVERRAZANO NARROWS BRIDGE

-6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

RIP VAN WINKLE BRIDGEBEAR MOUNTAIN BRIDGE

KINGSTON RHINECLIFF BRIDGEMID-HUDSON BRIDGE

NEWBURGH BEACON BRIDGETAPPAN ZEE BRIDGE

-14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%

BAYONNE BRIDGEGOETHALS BRIDGE

OUTERBRIDGE CROSSING

HOLLAND TUNNELLINCOLN TUNNEL

GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE

-110%

-105%

-100%

-95%

-90%

-85%

-80%

-75%

-70%

-65%

-60%

-55%

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5% 0% 5% 10%

15% 20%

25%

30%

35%

WHIRLPOOL RAPIDS BRIDGEOGDENSBURG BRIDGE

THOUSAND ISLANDS BRIDGESEAWAY INTERNATIONAL

RAINBOW BRIDGELEWISTON-QUEENSTON

PEACE BRIDGE

-14% -13% -12% -11% -10% -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

TOTAL NON-REVENUE TRIPS

TOTAL COMMERCIAL TRIPS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRIPS

MTA Bridge and Tunnel Volume Changes

Mid-Hudson Bridge Volume Changes

Port Authority Bridge Volume Changes

Canadian Bridge Volume Changes

New York State Thruway Volume Changes

-1% 0% 1%

Contiuous Count Site Index Changes

CONTINUOUS COUNT SIT

Note: Bridges are sorted by traffic volume for periods covered.Note: Bridges with smaller volumes can experience large percentage changes year from one period to the next. Note: Bridge aggregate and funnel traffic to one point and therefore may not accurately represent traffic.

Most Recent Common Month

1/25/2010Report generated on:

Bridge Name

Change in Traffic on NYS Bridges, Thruway and RoadsMonthly ChangeYear to Date

MTA Bridge/Tunnel Volumes 1/09 to 9/09 1/08 to 9/08 9/09 9/08% ∆ % ∆BRONX WHITESTONE BRIDGE 32,499,252 32,022,924 3,593,326 3,534,1721.5% 1.7%BROOKLYN BATTERY TUNNEL 12,288,282 14,004,715 1,326,216 1,429,366-12.3% -7.2%CROSS BAY BRIDGE 5,822,155 5,921,892 642,959 635,769-1.7% 1.1%HENRY HUDSON BRIDGE 16,865,949 18,072,144 1,914,254 1,896,604-6.7% 0.9%MARINE PARKWAY BRIDGE 6,093,536 6,078,438 680,923 661,1870.2% 3.0%QUEENS MIDTOWN TUNNEL 21,004,411 22,217,487 2,379,343 2,410,409-5.5% -1.3%THROGS NECK BRIDGE 29,524,039 31,846,729 3,381,237 3,357,875-7.3% 0.7%TRIBOROUGH BRONX 21,906,478 22,258,594 2,435,083 2,345,380-1.6% 3.8%TRIBOROUGH MANHATTAN 23,728,402 25,715,823 2,713,606 2,680,787-7.7% 1.2%VERRAZANO NARROWS BRIDGE 52,112,530 53,490,652 5,771,758 5,681,642-2.6% 1.6%

221,845,034 231,629,398 24,838,705 24,633,191-4.2% 0.8%TOTAL

Mid-Hudson Bridge Volumes 1/09 to 9/09 1/08 to 9/08 9/09 9/08% ∆ % ∆BEAR MOUNTAIN BRIDGE 4,918,702 4,868,374 578,450 548,8701.0% 5.4%KINGSTON RHINECLIFF BRIDGE 5,779,434 5,710,818 666,662 643,7001.2% 3.6%MID-HUDSON BRIDGE 10,230,800 10,489,808 1,190,180 1,164,294-2.5% 2.2%NEWBURGH BEACON BRIDGE 18,650,750 19,166,814 2,110,810 2,059,156-2.7% 2.5%RIP VAN WINKLE BRIDGE 4,102,952 4,081,370 484,972 465,5860.5% 4.2%TAPPAN ZEE BRIDGE 36,138,068 37,898,166 4,116,844 4,037,860-4.6% 2.0%

79,820,706 82,215,350 9,147,918 8,919,466-2.9% 2.6%TOTAL

Prt. Authority Bridge Volumes1/09 to 11/09 1/08 to 11/08 11/09 11/08% ∆ % ∆BAYONNE BRIDGE 6,441,464 7,325,500 575,612 578,936-12.1% -0.6%GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE 95,850,132 99,128,674 8,540,150 8,616,668-3.3% -0.9%GOETHALS BRIDGE 26,028,420 26,099,262 2,362,602 2,273,800-0.3% 3.9%HOLLAND TUNNEL 30,438,780 31,780,628 2,695,372 2,675,544-4.2% 0.7%LINCOLN TUNNEL 37,152,032 40,105,882 3,386,788 3,407,594-7.4% -0.6%OUTERBRIDGE CROSSING 27,249,998 28,746,944 2,338,030 2,400,416-5.2% -2.6%

223,160,826 233,186,890 19,898,554 19,952,958-4.3% -0.3%TOTAL

Canadian Bridge Volumes 1/09 to 11/09 1/08 to 11/08 11/09 11/08% ∆ % ∆LEWISTON-QUEENSTON BRIDGE 3,309,622 3,701,413 274,748 270,185-10.6% 1.7%OGDENSBURG BRIDGE 519,502 511,024 46,297 40,9181.7% 13.1%PEACE BRIDGE 5,507,280 6,172,476 460,212 462,987-10.8% -0.6%RAINBOW BRIDGE 2,660,083 3,028,107 218,011 221,162-12.2% -1.4%SEAWAY INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE 1,118,892 2,394,304 172,460 201,483-53.3% -14.4%THOUSAND ISLANDS BRIDGE 1,877,169 1,991,985 144,342 134,572-5.8% 7.3%WHIRLPOOL RAPIDS BRIDGE 292,642 238,598 29,395 23,63322.7% 24.4%

15,285,190 18,037,907 1,345,465 1,354,940-15.3% -0.7%TOTAL

Type of Volume

New York State Thruway Volumes

11/08 to 10/09 11/07 to 10/08 10/09 10/08% ∆ % ∆Monthly ChangeYear Ending in Month

TOTAL COMMERCIAL TRIPS 20,346,073 23,387,746 2,161,006 2,345,805-13.0% -7.9%TOTAL NON-REVENUE TRIPS 1,471,751 1,512,041 157,780 168,476-2.7% -6.3%TOTAL PASSENGER TRIPS 187,152,989 191,960,403 19,389,067 19,276,164-2.5% 0.6%

208,970,813 216,860,190 21,707,853 21,790,445-3.6% -0.4%TOTAL

NYSDOT Continous Count Sites

Continuous Sites Index 1/09 to 10/09 1/08 to 10/08 10/09 10/08% ∆ % ∆Monthly ChangeYear to Date

Computed Index and Overall Change -0.5% 0.8%1,204.3 1,210.8 125.6 124.6

Note: Bridges with smaller volumes can experience large percentage changes year from one period to the next. Note: Bridge aggregate and funnel traffic to one point and therefore may not accurately represent traffic.

Latest Month Available1/25/2010Report generated on:

Note: Cont. Cnt. Index values for YTD and Monthly change will be different due to the method of calculation.

Bridge Name

Change in Traffic on NYS Bridges, Thruway and RoadsChange from same month in the previous year

Change from YTD from prior yearMonth of most recent data

-14% -13% -12% -11% -10% -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

CROSS BAY BRIDGEMARINE PARKWAY BRIDGE

BROOKLYN BATTERY TUNNELHENRY HUDSON BRIDGE

QUEENS MIDTOWN TUNNELTRIBOROUGH BRONX

TRIBOROUGH MANHATTANTHROGS NECK BRIDGE

BRONX WHITESTONE BRIDGEVERRAZANO NARROWS BRIDGE

-6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

RIP VAN WINKLE BRIDGEBEAR MOUNTAIN BRIDGE

KINGSTON RHINECLIFF BRIDGEMID-HUDSON BRIDGE

NEWBURGH BEACON BRIDGETAPPAN ZEE BRIDGE

-14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%

BAYONNE BRIDGEGOETHALS BRIDGE

OUTERBRIDGE CROSSING

HOLLAND TUNNELLINCOLN TUNNEL

GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE

-60% -55% -50% -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

WHIRLPOOL RAPIDS BRIDGEOGDENSBURG BRIDGE

THOUSAND ISLANDS BRIDGESEAWAY INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE

RAINBOW BRIDGELEWISTON-QUEENSTON BRIDGE

PEACE BRIDGE

-14% -13% -12% -11% -10% -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2%

TOTAL NON-REVENUE TRIPS

TOTAL COMMERCIAL TRIPS

TOTAL PASSENGER TRIPS

MTA Bridge and Tunnel Volume Changes

Mid-Hudson Bridge Volume Changes

Port Authority Bridge Volume Changes

Canadian Bridge Volume Changes

New York State Thruway Volume Changes

-1% 0% 1%

Contiuous Count Site Index Changes

9/1/2009

9/1/2009

11/1/2009

11/1/2009

10/1/2009

10/1/2009

CONTINUOUS COUNT SIT

Note: Bridges are sorted by traffic volume for periods covered.Note: Bridges with smaller volumes can experience large percentage changes year from one period to the next. Note: Bridge aggregate and funnel traffic to one point and therefore may not accurately represent traffic.

Latest Month Available

1/25/2010Report generated on:

How does NYS Continuous Count Index Measure of Change differ from the Federal Traffic Volume Trend? NYS Continuous Count Index Description of the index is shown on page 1 & 2 of the overview. The reader should note that this index is constructed differently from the FHWA measure. Federal Monthly Estimate of VMT According to FHWA (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/tvtfaq.cfm#faq10) the Traffic Volume Trends data is calculated as follows:

How is TVT done each month?

The Traffic Volume Trends (TVT) report is published monthly by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The report estimates the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by state and several functional classes of roads. The estimates are based on two sources of data:

The Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS), and Monthly traffic counts from automatic traffic recorders (ATRs).

The HPMS compiles data from the states annually concerning the condition and performance of all roads in the United States. HPMS includes the annual average daily traffic (AADT) by road segment. When these AADTs are multiplied by the length of each road segment and summed for all road segments and days of the year, they yield the annual VMT.

The states submit to FHWA traffic counts from their ATRs each month. These ATRs are permanent traffic counting devices such as inductive loops in the roadway. There are about 4000 ATRs that are reported to FHWA each month.

ATR data are submitted and processed using the Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS). The FHWA runs quality control checks on all data received. Only data passing the checks are used for the TVT report.

Monthly average daily traffic (MADT) is computed from the ATR traffic counts. Each MADT is compared with the MADT for the same month the previous year to yield a change rate. The change rates are averaged by functional class of road. If a state does not provide traffic data in time, their change rates are estimated from the surrounding states.

TVT estimates monthly VMT by combining the change rates for each month with the most recent annual VMT from HPMS. The TVT report is available to the public within 60 days after the close of the month. Data that covers a minimum of 30 states and 70% of the VMT is required for publication. The next month's TVT report will include an update which covers more data.

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The December TVT provides the first estimate of annual VMT for performance measures such as crash rates. When the annual HPMS data are available, they will supersede the total VMT from TVT.

Difference between NYS Continuous Count Index and Federal Monthly Estimate of VMT As stated above the Federal data values are estimates of VMT which differ in intent and methodology from the index created by NYS. While derived from the same data, continuous count stations, the intent and methodology differ leading to some discrepancies between the two. As expected however, there is a mild correlation between the two data. The correlation coefficient r2 is 0.59 for the percent change month to month. Meaning that 59% of one dataset can be explained with the other dataset. The remaining 41% is most likely due to methodology and specification error. For instance, which stations are included in the calculation and which are not or how is each station weighted, how it is estimated based upon surrounding state data, etc. The decisions affect the result. The chart comparing the two series indicates that the trends generally follow each other. However the variability in the NYS Index series is considerably less than the VMT estimate providing a more stable estimate of change. However, note that while the methodologies are different and the variability is different the accuracy of the results cannot be confirmed one way or the other due to the nature of the data. These measures are meant to provide an idea of conditions in NYS and caution is required when interpreting the data.

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Current Month Index Value

Federal Estimate of NY VMTDate: % ∆ % ∆

NY Continuous Count Index Percent Change vs. FHWA Estimate of NY VMT Percent Change vs. FHWA Estimate of US VMT Percent Change

Federal Estimate of US VMT % ∆

116.83 10,760,67411/1/2005 -5.6% -4.1% 241,598,680 -3.4%118.14 11,286,00012/1/2005 1.1% 4.9% 244,155,000 1.1%105.86 10,683,0001/1/2006 -10.4% -5.3% 232,069,000 -5.0%108.36 10,022,0002/1/2006 2.4% -6.2% 219,380,000 -5.5%115.82 11,414,0003/1/2006 6.9% 13.9% 248,824,000 13.4%123.68 12,432,0004/1/2006 6.8% 8.9% 262,713,000 5.6%131.29 12,432,0005/1/2006 6.2% 0.0% 262,713,000 0.0%132.51 12,070,0006/1/2006 0.9% -2.9% 261,657,000 -0.4%138.34 12,207,0007/1/2006 4.4% 1.1% 261,222,000 -0.2%135.40 12,904,0008/1/2006 -2.1% 5.7% 265,158,000 1.5%126.96 12,184,0009/1/2006 -6.2% -5.6% 245,094,000 -7.6%128.97 11,746,00010/1/2006 1.6% -3.6% 255,655,000 4.3%119.55 11,160,00011/1/2006 -7.3% -5.0% 245,840,000 -3.8%120.97 11,554,00012/1/2006 1.2% 3.5% 246,594,000 0.3%106.30 10,724,0001/1/2007 -12.1% -7.2% 230,712,000 -6.4%106.06 9,865,0002/1/2007 -0.2% -8.0% 216,931,000 -6.0%115.06 11,940,0003/1/2007 8.5% 21.0% 257,297,000 18.6%119.66 11,226,0004/1/2007 4.0% -6.0% 249,807,000 -2.9%132.20 12,550,0005/1/2007 10.5% 11.8% 264,337,000 5.8%132.81 12,190,0006/1/2007 0.5% -2.9% 262,480,000 -0.7%140.60 12,293,0007/1/2007 5.9% 0.8% 264,136,000 0.6%133.70 12,965,0008/1/2007 -4.9% 5.5% 268,680,000 1.7%127.33 12,101,0009/1/2007 -4.8% -6.7% 243,555,000 -9.4%130.99 11,974,00010/1/2007 2.9% -1.0% 258,739,000 6.2%118.69 10,639,00011/1/2007 -9.4% -11.1% 245,977,000 -4.9%113.87 10,829,00012/1/2007 -4.1% 1.8% 240,759,000 -2.1%106.56 10,564,0001/1/2008 -6.4% -2.4% 229,479,000 -4.7%106.25 9,677,0002/1/2008 -0.3% -8.4% 217,597,000 -5.2%110.13 11,324,0003/1/2008 3.6% 17.0% 248,149,000 14.0%123.01 11,101,0004/1/2008 11.7% -2.0% 248,081,000 0.0%127.74 11,787,0005/1/2008 3.8% 6.2% 257,135,000 3.6%124.84 11,410,0006/1/2008 -2.3% -3.2% 251,767,000 -2.1%136.13 11,719,0007/1/2008 9.0% 2.7% 257,663,000 2.3%128.16 12,238,0008/1/2008 -5.9% 4.4% 257,106,000 -0.2%121.86 11,238,0009/1/2008 -4.9% -8.2% 234,934,000 -8.6%126.08 11,367,00010/1/2008 3.5% 1.1% 252,138,000 7.3%111.74 10,010,00011/1/2008 -11.4% -11.9% 232,598,000 -7.7%112.98 10,853,00012/1/2008 1.1% 8.4% 236,985,000 1.9%99.68 9,960,0001/1/2009 -11.8% -8.2% 222,778,000 -6.0%

103.62 9,834,0002/1/2009 4.0% -1.3% 215,766,000 -3.1%105.64 11,353,0003/1/2009 2.0% 15.4% 245,139,000 13.6%125.15 11,082,0004/1/2009 18.5% -2.4% 249,353,000 1.7%127.89 11,917,0005/1/2009 2.2% 7.5% 256,715,000 3.0%122.72 11,505,0006/1/2009 -4.0% -3.5% 256,511,000 -0.1%135.66 11,950,0007/1/2009 10.5% 3.9% 263,385,000 2.7%129.76 12,244,0008/1/2009 -4.3% 2.5% 259,002,000 -1.7%128.62 11,393,0009/1/2009 -0.9% -7.0% 240,275,000 -7.2%125.58 11,145,00010/1/2009 -2.4% -2.2% 250,783,000 4.4%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

FHWA NY VMT Estimate NYS Index

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

FHWA NY VMT Estimate FHWA US VMT Estimate

NY Continuous Count Index Percent Change vs. FHWA Estimate of NY VMT Percent Change

FHWA Estimate of NY VMT Percent Change vs. FHWA Estimate of US VMT Percent Change

Note: Table data is for most recent 48 months of available dataNote: Chart data is for all data dating back to January 2000

Transit Data Source and Description The transit data presented is taken from the National Transit Database website (http://www.ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/data.htm). The specific data series is the Monthly Module Data Release which is raw unadjusted data. The NTD website does provide adjusted data. However, our analysis shows that the practical difference between the presentations of raw and adjusted data is negligible. Transit Index When the transit data is indexed for monthly presentation the index is created by dividing all monthly transit values by the January 2002 transit value. The January value is simply the first available data point and the index shows the change relative to that date. The index also allows a valid comparison to any other data point in the series or any other series so constructed and practically serves simply to reduce the transit values to values surrounding 100. This reduction allows for easier graphical presentation while retaining the valuable relative information. For presenting the 12 month sum the data is indexed against January 2003 which is the first month January composed of a full 12 month sum. Each subsequent data point then represents the moving 12 month total. Data Issues The data presented is not a 100% representation of transit providers. Data reporting thresholds apply, there are out of state providers and other complications that limit the scope of the data. For instance, if a provider is small (fewer than 9 vehicles in peak hours) they are not required to report. There exist providers that report transit values in other states in addition to New York. In these cases their New York values, if delineated, are included in the totals for New York. Further, only transit agencies that are “…recipients of Urbanized Area Formula Grants from the Federal Transit Administration are required to report.” Therefore, caution should be taken when interpreting the data presented. While it is reasonably certain that the NTD fairly and accurately depicts macro trends on a monthly basis it is possible that monthly ridership values obtained from other administrative sources may be at variance with the NTD.

17

Date Rail Rail ChangeBus + Other

Change

NYS Public Transportation (Rail, Bus + Other)

Bus + Other Statewide

ChangeStatewide

4/1/2008 244,455,488 4.32% 107,048,790 -10.70% 351,504,278 -0.76%5/1/2008 245,670,732 0.50% 124,460,178 16.26% 370,130,910 5.30%

6/1/2008 234,354,010 -4.61% 131,544,525 5.69% 365,898,535 -1.14%7/1/2008 242,416,492 3.44% 131,099,561 -0.34% 373,516,053 2.08%8/1/2008 235,188,489 -2.98% 113,267,720 -13.60% 348,456,209 -6.71%9/1/2008 228,551,119 -2.82% 126,129,174 11.35% 354,680,293 1.79%

10/1/2008 251,382,264 9.99% 128,085,568 1.55% 379,467,832 6.99%11/1/2008 228,929,161 -8.93% 113,166,697 -11.65% 342,095,858 -9.85%

12/1/2008 246,289,430 7.58% 115,450,661 2.02% 361,740,091 5.74%1/1/2009 215,486,464 -12.51% 128,885,674 11.64% 344,372,138 -4.80%

2/1/2009 205,955,183 -4.42% 117,023,646 -9.20% 322,978,829 -6.21%3/1/2009 234,714,080 13.96% 140,092,052 19.71% 374,806,132 16.05%4/1/2009 235,268,288 0.24% 118,091,190 -15.70% 353,359,478 -5.72%5/1/2009 231,145,270 -1.75% 120,525,919 2.06% 351,671,189 -0.48%

6/1/2009 235,662,970 1.95% 117,676,915 -2.36% 353,339,885 0.47%7/1/2009 227,955,388 -3.27% 107,424,815 -8.71% 335,380,203 -5.08%

8/1/2009 226,010,275 -0.85% 108,885,990 1.36% 334,896,265 -0.14%9/1/2009 230,669,318 2.06% 121,513,062 11.60% 352,182,380 5.16%

10/1/2009 244,236,922 5.88% 126,020,930 3.71% 370,257,852 5.13%11/1/2009 211,079,292 -13.58% 118,953,309 -5.61% 330,032,601 -10.86%

Source: National Transit Database, http://www.ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/data.htm monthly data

Values

75,000,000

125,000,000

175,000,000

225,000,000

275,000,000

325,000,000

375,000,000

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

Rail

Bus+Other

Statewide

Percent Change

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

Rail

Bus+Other

Statewide

Date Upstate Upstate

ChangeDownstate

Change

NYS Public Transportation (Upstate, Downstate)

Downstate StatewideStatewide

Change

4/1/2008 7,070,363 4.75% 344,433,915 -0.87% 351,504,278 -0.76%5/1/2008 6,784,321 -4.05% 363,346,589 5.49% 370,130,910 5.30%6/1/2008 6,400,766 -5.65% 359,497,769 -1.06% 365,898,535 -1.14%

7/1/2008 6,090,080 -4.85% 367,425,973 2.21% 373,516,053 2.08%8/1/2008 6,452,095 5.94% 342,004,114 -6.92% 348,456,209 -6.71%

9/1/2008 7,533,196 16.76% 347,147,097 1.50% 354,680,293 1.79%10/1/2008 8,286,408 10.00% 371,181,424 6.92% 379,467,832 6.99%

11/1/2008 7,016,587 -15.32% 335,079,271 -9.73% 342,095,858 -9.85%12/1/2008 6,732,583 -4.05% 355,007,508 5.95% 361,740,091 5.74%

1/1/2009 6,675,954 -0.84% 337,696,184 -4.88% 344,372,138 -4.80%2/1/2009 6,813,056 2.05% 316,165,773 -6.38% 322,978,829 -6.21%

3/1/2009 7,668,010 12.55% 367,138,122 16.12% 374,806,132 16.05%4/1/2009 6,836,180 -10.85% 346,523,298 -5.62% 353,359,478 -5.72%

5/1/2009 6,672,917 -2.39% 344,998,272 -0.44% 351,671,189 -0.48%6/1/2009 6,204,007 -7.03% 347,135,878 0.62% 353,339,885 0.47%

7/1/2009 5,910,883 -4.72% 329,469,320 -5.09% 335,380,203 -5.08%8/1/2009 5,922,307 0.19% 328,973,958 -0.15% 334,896,265 -0.14%9/1/2009 7,251,007 22.44% 344,931,373 4.85% 352,182,380 5.16%

10/1/2009 7,341,737 1.25% 362,916,115 5.21% 370,257,852 5.13%

11/1/2009 6,091,192 -17.03% 323,941,409 -10.74% 330,032,601 -10.86%

Upstate and Downstate

250,000,000

275,000,000

300,000,000

325,000,000

350,000,000

375,000,000

400,000,000

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,0009,000,000

Downstate

Statewide

Upstate

Source: National Transit Database, http://www.ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/data.htm monthly data

Percent Change

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

Upstate

Downstate

Statewide

Monthly Values and Change The report that follows examines the change in the monthly values compared to the previous month. This view allows the reader to see more immediate changes in both the NY Continuous Count Index and the Transit Index. The continuous count values and transit values are printed and graphed the reader can visually inspect the relationship between them.

20

Transit Continuous Count

(CC) DATE:

NYS Continuous Count Index Compared to NYS Transit Index(NYS transit is indexed against January 1, 2002)

% Δ % Δ 113.310/1/2005 123.77 -2.7% 6.3%108.611/1/2005 116.83 -5.6% -4.2%

98.412/1/2005 118.14 1.1% -9.4%103.91/1/2006 105.86 -10.4% 5.7%

92.92/1/2006 108.36 2.4% -10.6%114.23/1/2006 115.82 6.9% 22.9%

99.64/1/2006 123.68 6.8% -12.8%108.95/1/2006 131.29 6.2% 9.4%113.26/1/2006 132.51 0.9% 3.9%100.37/1/2006 138.34 4.4% -11.4%104.88/1/2006 135.40 -2.1% 4.5%110.79/1/2006 126.96 -6.2% 5.7%113.310/1/2006 128.97 1.6% 2.3%106.711/1/2006 119.55 -7.3% -5.9%107.312/1/2006 120.97 1.2% 0.6%104.71/1/2007 106.30 -12.1% -2.5%

98.52/1/2007 106.06 -0.2% -5.9%113.93/1/2007 115.06 8.5% 15.6%106.84/1/2007 119.66 4.0% -6.2%116.35/1/2007 132.20 10.5% 8.9%108.26/1/2007 132.81 0.5% -7.0%106.07/1/2007 140.60 5.9% -2.0%108.78/1/2007 133.70 -4.9% 2.5%109.89/1/2007 127.33 -4.8% 1.0%121.110/1/2007 130.99 2.9% 10.3%112.011/1/2007 118.69 -9.4% -7.5%104.412/1/2007 113.87 -4.1% -6.7%111.41/1/2008 106.56 -6.4% 6.7%105.02/1/2008 106.25 -0.3% -5.8%112.33/1/2008 110.13 3.6% 7.0%111.54/1/2008 123.01 11.7% -0.8%117.45/1/2008 127.74 3.8% 5.3%116.16/1/2008 124.84 -2.3% -1.1%118.57/1/2008 136.13 9.0% 2.1%110.58/1/2008 128.16 -5.9% -6.7%112.59/1/2008 121.86 -4.9% 1.8%120.410/1/2008 126.08 3.5% 7.0%108.511/1/2008 111.74 -11.4% -9.8%114.712/1/2008 112.98 1.1% 5.7%109.21/1/2009 99.68 -11.8% -4.8%102.42/1/2009 103.62 4.0% -6.2%118.93/1/2009 105.64 2.0% 16.0%112.14/1/2009 125.15 18.5% -5.7%111.55/1/2009 127.89 2.2% -0.5%112.16/1/2009 122.72 -4.0% 0.5%106.47/1/2009 135.66 10.5% -5.1%106.28/1/2009 129.76 -4.3% -0.1%111.79/1/2009 128.62 -0.9% 5.2%117.410/1/2009 125.58 -2.4% 5.1%

Monthly NYS Continuous Count and Transit Montly Indexed Data

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90

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-05

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NYS Index Statewide Transit (Indexed) Transit Fitted Polynomial Trend NYS Fitted Polynomial Trend

Values shown on previous page.

Note: Fitted trend lines represent best perceived polynomial fit.

NYS Index

Statewide Transit (Index)

This page intentionally left blank.

23

Underlying Monthly Annual Trends Each monthly value indicates the sum of the previous 12 months, the annual estimate as of that month. The percent change is a comparison of the current month versus the previous month. This presentation allows the data to reflect changes while minimizing the seasonal fluctuations. The moving 12 month trend is less sensitive to the immediacy of monthly changes and offers the opportunity to compare the direction of the long term trend with the short term trend shown in the monthly report.

24

Transit Continuous Count (CC) DATE:

12-Month NYS Continuous Count Index Compared to 12-Month NYS Transit Index

(Values indexed against January 1, 2003)

% Δ % Δ 115.911/1/2005 96.28 -0.2% 0.8%115.912/1/2005 97.35 1.1% 0.0%116.91/1/2006 97.67 0.3% 0.9%114.92/1/2006 97.36 -0.3% -1.7%116.03/1/2006 96.72 -0.7% 0.9%114.84/1/2006 96.11 -0.6% -1.0%115.25/1/2006 95.88 -0.2% 0.3%116.26/1/2006 95.64 -0.2% 0.8%115.87/1/2006 95.76 0.1% -0.3%115.68/1/2006 96.35 0.6% -0.2%115.39/1/2006 96.57 0.2% -0.2%115.810/1/2006 97.44 0.9% 0.4%116.611/1/2006 97.54 0.1% 0.7%117.012/1/2006 98.62 1.1% 0.3%118.21/1/2007 98.47 -0.1% 1.0%116.62/1/2007 97.78 -0.7% -1.3%118.03/1/2007 97.16 -0.6% 1.2%117.84/1/2007 96.33 -0.9% -0.2%118.15/1/2007 96.31 0.0% 0.3%118.96/1/2007 95.91 -0.4% 0.7%119.07/1/2007 96.29 0.4% 0.1%118.88/1/2007 96.77 0.5% -0.2%118.59/1/2007 96.65 -0.1% -0.3%119.910/1/2007 97.47 0.8% 1.2%120.411/1/2007 97.30 -0.2% 0.4%120.412/1/2007 97.84 0.6% 0.0%121.61/1/2008 97.88 0.0% 1.1%120.82/1/2008 97.25 -0.6% -0.7%121.33/1/2008 96.57 -0.7% 0.5%120.84/1/2008 95.91 -0.7% -0.4%121.85/1/2008 95.55 -0.4% 0.8%122.86/1/2008 94.43 -1.2% 0.8%123.77/1/2008 94.60 0.2% 0.8%123.88/1/2008 94.66 0.1% 0.1%122.99/1/2008 94.01 -0.7% -0.7%123.810/1/2008 94.54 0.6% 0.7%124.211/1/2008 94.38 -0.2% 0.3%124.512/1/2008 94.84 0.5% 0.3%124.91/1/2009 94.37 -0.5% 0.3%124.02/1/2009 93.91 -0.5% -0.8%124.73/1/2009 92.67 -1.3% 0.6%124.24/1/2009 92.48 -0.2% -0.4%123.75/1/2009 92.70 0.2% -0.4%123.16/1/2009 91.75 -1.0% -0.5%122.77/1/2009 92.28 0.6% -0.3%122.08/1/2009 92.85 0.6% -0.5%121.29/1/2009 93.03 0.2% -0.7%122.110/1/2009 94.01 1.1% 0.7%

90

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115

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Jan-03

Apr-03

Jul-0

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Jan-04

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9

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9

NY 12 Month Index Transit 12 Month Index Transit 12 Month Index Polynomial Trend NY 12 Month Index Polynomial Trend

12 Month Values by Month with Fitted Trend

Values shown on previous page

Note: Fitted trend lines represent best perceived polynomial fit.

Transit 12 Month Index

NY 12 Month Index

Appendix The following is a list of included transit operators for their New York State portions of service: UZA: 1 UZA Name: New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT Academy Lines, Inc. Atlantic Express Atlantic Paratrans of NYC, Inc. BillyBey Ferry Company, LLC City of Long Beach Clarkstown Mini-Trans Community Transit, Inc. DeCamp Bus Lines GTJC Hudson Transit Lines, Inc. Huntington Area Rapid Transit Lakeland Bus Lines, Inc. Metro-North Commuter Railroad Company, dba: MTA Metro-North Railroad Metropolitan Suburban Bus Authority, dba: MTA Long Island Bus Monsey New Square Trails Corporation MTA Bus Company MTA Long Island Rail Road MTA New York City Transit New Jersey Transit Corporation New Jersey Transit Corporation-45 New York Bus Tours, Inc., dba: New York Bus Service New York City Department of Transportation Olympia Trails Bus Company, Inc. Orange-Newark-Elizabeth, Inc. Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation Port Imperial Ferry Corporation dba NY Waterway Private One of New York, LLC, dba: New York Airport Service Private Transportation Corporation Putnam County Transit Queens Surface Corporation Rockland Coaches, Inc. Roosevelt Island Operating Corporation of the State of New York Staten Island Rapid Transit Operating Authority, dba: MTA Staten Island Railway Suburban Transit Corporation Suffolk County Department of Public Works - Transportation Division Trans-Bridge Lines, Inc.

27

Trans-Hudson Express Transport of Rockland Transportation Resources Intra-County for Physically Handicapped and Senior Citizens Village of Spring Valley Bus Westchester County Bee-Line System UZA: 38 UZA Name: Buffalo, NY Niagara Frontier Transportation Authority UZA: 41 UZA Name: Bridgeport-Stamford, CT-NY 2Plus Partners in Transportation, Inc Connecticut Transit - Stamford Division Greater Bridgeport Transit Authority Milford Transit District Norwalk Transit District Valley Transit District UZA: 53 UZA Name: Rochester, NY Regional Transit Service, Inc. and Lift Line, Inc. UZA: 62 UZA Name: Albany, NY Capital District Transportation Authority UZA: 81 UZA Name: Syracuse, NY Centro of Cayuga, Inc. Centro of Oswego, Inc. CNY Centro, Inc. UZA: 89 UZA Name: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY City of Poughkeepsie Dutchess County Division of Mass Transportation Hendrick Hudson Bus Lines, Inc. Monroe Bus Corporation Newburgh Beacon Bus Corporation Town of Highlands Dial-A-Bus Town of Monroe Dial-A-Bus Ulster County Area Transit Village of Kiryas Joel UZA: 182 UZA Name: Binghamton, NY-PA Broome County Department of Public Transportation Tioga County

28

UZA: 186 UZA Name: Danbury, CT-NY Housatonic Area Regional Transit UZA: 233 UZA Name: Utica, NY Centro of Oneida, Inc. UZA: 350 UZA Name: Elmira, NY Chemung County Transit System UZA: 400 UZA Name: Glens Falls, NY Greater Glens Falls Transit System UZA: 421 UZA Name: Ithaca, NY Tompkins Consolidated Area Transit UZA: 424 UZA Name: Kingston, NY Adirondack Transit Lines, Inc.

29