ChangeThe Constant of Modern Times

George O. StrawnNSF CIO

Copyright George O. Strawn 2005. This work is the intellectual property of the author. Permission is granted for this material to be shared for non-commercial, educational purposes, provided that this copyright statement appears on the reproduced materials and notice is given that the copying is by permission of the author. To disseminate otherwise or to republish requires written permission from the author.

“Everybody wants economic growth, but nobody wants change”

Economist Paul Romer as quoted in The World is Flat by Thomas L Friedman

OutlineMeExponential speedup in change200-year changes

Agriculture, IT

50-year changesIT

Year-to-year changelessnessFuture changes

Society, IT, Education

Source Books

Maps of Time, ChristianThe Control Revolution—Technological and Economic Origins of the Information Society, BenigerSeeing What’s Next, ChristensenThe World Is Flat, Friedman

MeLiberal Arts college grad: math, physics, drama, track & cross country, quartet, *and* learned about computers (over a summer) at Argonne LabIBM: systems engineer, computer sales repIowa State: math, com sci grad student, math, com sci professor, com sci dept chair, computation center directorNSF: nsfnet program director, networking division director, cise directorate deputy AD and acting AD, and now CIO

Myers-Briggs (E/I, N/S, T/F, J/P)Duty seekers: SJs are realistic, practical, and responsible, and they like to stick to standard ways of doing things.Action seekers: SPs enjoy life in the here and now. Freedom is highly valued, and they resist being restricted or controlled.Ideal seekers: NFs tend to have a vision of an ideal world and want to work toward creating that vision here on earth.Knowledge seekers: NTs [seek to] understand and synthesize complex information, anticipate future trends, and focus on long range goals.

Foreground/BackgroundData/Information/Knowledge…Data: in databases; meaning/context elsewhereInformation: in messages for which humans provide the context; or in information bases with metadata to provide meaning/context Knowledge: in heads; information in context; actionable information; linked information; foreground information plus background contextThis is a background/context talk for IT change makers!

Exponential Speedup in Change5,000,000,000 Solar system forms 500,000,000 Multi-cell life emerges 50,000,000 Mammals dominate 5,000,000 Human line separates 500,000 Big brains, fine tools, fire 50,000 Language, fully modern 5,000 Civ: writing, math, cities 500 Western Civ: printing 50 Electronic Computing

Dividing up history…

Stone AgeUp to 5,000 bp

Bronze Age5,000 bp to 3,000 bp

Iron Age3,000 bp to present

Pre-Ag AgeUp to 10,000 bp

Agriculture Age10,000 bp to 200 bp

Post-Ag Age200 bp to present

Really Big IT changesPre-Agriculture Period (> 10,000 bp)

50,000-150,000 Language evolved

Agriculture Period (10,000-200 bp)5,000 Civilization invented (including Writing, Mathematics) 500 Western Civ (including Printing)

Post-Agriculture Period (< 200 bp)150 Pre-WW2 (including Telegraph) 50 Post-WW2 (including Computer)

Why was innovation so slow from 5,000 bp until 200 bp?

1. Religion and priests2. Kings and emperors3. Peasants and

agriculture

Why has innovation been so rapid since 200 bp?

1. Scientific revolution2. Commercial revolution 3. Industrial revolution

US Agriculture in the post-ag period1800: Farmers were almost 90% of the US civilian work force1800s: John Deere and Silas McCormack improved mechanized farming 1900s: The horse was retired, and hybridization drastically improved yields2000: Farming is almost all science and technology, almost no labor!

% US Civilian Labor Force

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

% Information

% Service

% Industry

% Agriculture

Information = Education + R&D + Comm Media + Info Machines + Info Services

US Civilian Labor Force

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

Information

Service

Industry

Agriculture

Technological and Economic Origins of the Information Society

A “crisis of control” occurred soon after the industrial revolution began

Needed to control the inputs and outputs for steam-powered factoriesNeeded to control railroad operations

Post-ag, pre-WW2 IT ChangesAbout 1840, the Morse telegraph electrified telecommunications (beginning with a USG-funded line from Baltimore to DC!)In 1876, the Bell telephone electrified the human voice (for short distances only)In the early 1900s, the wireless telegraph resulted from Maxwell’s EquationsIn the 1920s, radio went on the air (followed by television in the 1940s)

In 1905…Life expectancy: 47 yearsHomes with a bathtub: 14%Homes with a telephone: 8%Cars in the US: 8,000Paved roads in the US: 144 milesPopulation of California: 1.4 million (21st)Average wage: 22 cents per hourHigh school graduates: 6%

In 2005…Life expectancy: 77.6 yearsHomes with a bathtub/shower: > 90%Homes with a telephone: > 90%Cars/trucks in the US: 200,000,000Paved roads in the US: 500,000 milesPopulation of California: 37 million (1st)Average wage: 22 dollars per hourCollege graduates: 25%

Post-ag, post-WW2 IT Changes

Computing: from mainframes (1950s) to personal computers (1980s) Networking: from stand-alone to LAN (1960s) to the Internet (1990s)Information: from a little data to islands of some information to the Web (1990s)Human-Computer interface: command line (1950s) to GUI (1980s) to the Web (2000)

Sustaining technologies

An sustaining innovation makes a product betterIncumbent companies are very good at producing and marketing sustaining innovations

Disruptive technologiesAn disruptive innovation provides a poorer solution to a known problemIf it also provides a solution to another problem(s) that incumbent providers and customers aren’t interested in, it may flourish and improve in its own market nicheIf its rate of improvement is fast enough, it may end up displacing/disrupting the original technology *and* the companies that made it

Sustaining or disruptive technologies?Computer makers tried to use the chip as a sustaining innovation to make better mainframes; but its disruptive use was to make pc’sTelephone companies tried to use fiber optics to improve telephone long distance service, but its disruptive use was to enable the InternetHigh volume, low cost disk storage is about to disrupt the publishing industry

Year-to-year Changelessness(changes occur decade-to-decade)

Four phases of a technology:

Lab, Exotic, Manufacturable, PervasiveComputers 1940, 1951, 1981, 2005?Internet1969, 1991, 2010? 2020?

Future Telecom Changes

The Internet to displace the voice net as phone calls go VoIP?Cable-TV telephony?Wireless Data to displace cell phones?IM and similar “toys”?All optical networks (optical transmission and optical switching) to bring back circuits?

Other Future IT Changes

Computing: thing computers (TCs)?

Networking: wireless sensor/actuator nets?

Information: all info available everywhere, all the time?

Societal Changes: the Earth Flattners11/9/89 (Berlin Wall) + PCs8/9/95 (Netscape goes public)Work Flow Software (XML, SOAP, WSDL)Open Source (Linux, Apache)Outsourcing (India) Triple ConvergenceOffshoring (China) Level Playing FieldSupply-Chaining (Wal-Mart) CollaborationInsourcing (UPS) New PlayersIn-forming (Google, Yahoo)Digital, Mobile, Personal, Virtual

Education changes?Higher education: motivated to cut costs?

Community colleges (now 50% of students)For-profit universities (mostly adult students)Corporate training programs (just in time edu)

K-12 education: motivated to improve?Charter schools (not)Individual courses over the Internet

Edu-tainment?

Higher Education disruption?Currently IT-based education is poorer than (the best) traditional educationIT-based education is finding niches and it will continue to developWill the science of learning yield the ‘scientific’ application of IT to education?Could education be automated by IT to the extent that agriculture has been automated? Could IT-based education takes us from 20 students per class to 20 teachers per student?

Higher Ed Changes: When?About the time my sons (ages 20 and 24) are reaching the end of their careers?By then all the professors and teachers, not just the students, will have grown up with ITBut will we figure out how to automate education about the same time that Hans Merovic (the CMU roboticist) predicts that all work will be automated?!

ConclusionsModern (post-ag) times really are different!

Enlightenment, Romantic, Victorian, Modern, Postmodern, …

It was was 5000 years from the beginning of farming to beginning of civilizationHow many years will it be from the beginning of the post-ag era to the beginning of a “new civilization”? 500?Can we survive (pollution, extinctions, pandemics, terrorists, etc) until then?

John Dewey (1859-1952)

“For the futile effort to achieve security and anchorage in something fixed, [we must] substitute the effort to determine the character of changes that are going on and to give them in the affairs that concern us most some measure of intelligent direction.”

Some more booksThe New Renaissance, RobertsonInformation Ages, Hobart & ShiffmanAll books by Thomas P. HughesTo Light Such a Candle, LaidlerFrom Dawn to Decadence, BarzunSaving Capitalism, Rajan & ZingalesThe Mind and the Market, MullerThe Soul of Capitalism, Greider