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OCTOBER 25 TH 2016 Changes are Coming: The Emergence of U.S. LNG Exports 34 th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference Tulsa, Oklahoma

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Page 1: Changes are Coming: The Emergence of U.S. LNG Exports Tulsa... · • Westward flow towards California continues to combat weakening demand and limited storage capacity, while southern

OCTOBER 25TH 2016

Changes are Coming:The Emergence of U.S. LNG Exports

34th USAEE/IAEE North American ConferenceTulsa, Oklahoma

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Where Are We Today?

1

1. The Global LNG Market & Emergence of US Volumes

2. LNG Market Fundamentals

Market rebalance in [2021-2023]

Is LNG demand understated?

3. US LNG Exports are Poised to Be Most Competitive Globally

Access to vast amount of cheap reserves

Lower capital costs

US LNG economics advantaged over other exporters

4. NextDecade & Rio Grande LNG Overview

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LNG in the US

First exports from Sabine Pass

Shell gains approval for BG acquisition

Shell defers FID on Lake Charles and LNG Canada

FERC denies application for Jordan Cove

First Gulf Coast LNG into Europe

FERC terminates Downeast LNG application

Jan

Mar

Feb

Apr

Jul

Aug

First Gulf Coast LNG into AsiaSep

Oregon LNG abandoned

First shipment of LNG via expanded Panama Canal

XOM backs out of Alaska LNG

2016

The current LNG oversupply has caused several project deferrals and cancellations in the US, overshadowing many US LNG milestones. While certainly a setback, new solutions to project development could allow for continued US LNG FID’s while also providing new markets for US gas producers.

2

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US LNG Landscape

3

Port of Brownsville

Rio Grande LNG 27 Application Pending

Annova LNG 6 Application Pending

Texas LNG 4 Application Pending

Sabine Pass, Port Arthur

Sabine Pass LNG T1-2 9 Operating

Sabine Pass LNG T3-4 9 Under Construction

Sabine Pass LNG T5 4.5 Under Construction

Sabine Pass LNG T6 4.5 Approved, not UC

Golden Pass LNG 15.6 Application Pending

Port Arthur LNG 12 Pre-Filing

Cameron Parish, Lake Charles, Calcasieu Lake

Cameron LNG T1-3 12 Under Construction

Cameron LNG T4-5 10 Approved, not UC

Lake Charles LNG 4.5 Approved, not UC

Magnolia LNG 8.8 Approved, not UC

Venture Global LNG 10 Application Pending

G2 LNG 14 Pre-Filing

Driftwood LNG 26 Pre-Filing

Freeport

Freeport LNG T1-3 13.2 Under Construction

Freeport LNG T4 5 Pre-Filing

Corpus Christi

Corpus Christi LNG T1-2 9 Under Construction

Corpus Christi LNG T3 4.5 Approved, not UC

Corpus Christi LNG T4-5 9 Pre-Filing

Pascagoula

Gulf LNG 11.5 Application Pending

Plaquemines Parish

CE FLNG 8 Pre-Filing

Venture Global Plaquemines 20 Pre-Filing

Louisiana LNG 6 Pre-Filing

Other notable projects include Cove Point LNG (5.25 mtpa, under construction) and Southern LNG include (2.5 mtpa, approved but not under construction).

Texas Louisiana

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The History of LNG Export Developments

Historically, most international LNG projects have been built on upon the necessity to move stranded gas (“supply push”) to large demand markets such as Asia and Europe. Recently, US LNG capacity expansions have been driven by a “demand pull” and a price arbitrage opportunity.

Global LNG FIDsMtpa

Source: Wood Mackenzie

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

US LNGCheniere, Cameron,

Freeport

Brunei, Qatar, T&T, Nigeria, OmanAustralia LNG

Gorgon, QCLNG, GLNG, Wheatstone, Ichthys

Demand PullSupply Push ?

4

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Long-Term LNG Supply & Demand

5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Post-FID Effective Capacity 100% Utilization Demand

Mtpa

New supply + demand slowdown

OversupplyTightening

1

23

Supply Deficit(100 mtpa)

4.2%CAGR

1. Overly-bullish expectations for Asian demand do not materialize in the wake of mild winters and nuclear restarts. At the same time, several projects are sanctioned as a result of newly economical reserves from the U.S. and Australia.

2. As the new wave of LNG projects come online, the market becomes flooded with excess gas that increasingly is sent to spot markets.

3. Structural demand drivers, such as expiring contracted volumes, increasingly-depleted domestic gas supplies, and geopolitical considerations eventually overtake supply before 2025.

Source: NextDecade interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data

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Macro Highlights

6

Strong Secular Forces

Underpin Growth of

LNG Demand

LNG demand is expected to rise over the coming years, driven by a desire for a cleaner-burning, higher-yielding fuel, increased coal plant retirements, broad-reaching geopolitical considerations, and easier market access for new importers

Since 2014, ten countries have constructed almost 50 mtpa of regasification capacity, with a further 60 mtpa already under construction and expected to be operational by the end of 20171

U.S. Gulf Coast

Projects Emerging as

Most Cost-Competitive

As traditional buyers seek to diversify away from oil-linked contracts and increase destination flexibility, U.S. LNG is poised to capture significant market share, supported by abundant gas supply, existing pipeline infrastructure, geopolitical considerations, and a competitive project execution environment

Port Isabel

Brownsville

South Padre Island

Rio Grande Terminal

1: IGU World Gas Report, 2016Map Source: EIA

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Powerful Demand Forces Support LNG Growth

7

LNG demand is projected to rise for the foreseeable future, driven by a number of factors. While currently oversupplied, the LNG market is expected to enter a prolonged period of shortage in the early 2020s

1. Environmental and Political Drivers. Many countries have implemented clean energy policies, aimed at lowering the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. LNG can has a higher energy yield and lower greenhouse gas emissions than conventional hydrocarbons such as coal or oil.

2. Renewable Energy Shortfalls. Renewables continue to rise in popularity and market penetration, but several hurdles still remain.

- Renewable energy sources can be unpredictable - Require back-up and grid stabilization- Natural gas is an ideal solution for these and other reasons

3. Greater Technologies Drive Market Access. Emerging countries seeking new sources of power generation have had difficulty developing large-scale, multi-billion dollar, conventional onshore projects. New technologies, namely Floating, Storage, and Regasification Units, offer smaller players the ability to import marginal volumes of LNG for minimal capital costs.

4. Broad Market Applications. LNG can be used for multiple applications, but LNG as a transport fuel has yet to achieve significant market presence.

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Demand Understated: Emerging Market Growth Key

8

238

147

44

98 98

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2014Demand

Established PlayerGrowth

EmergingDemand

UpsideEmerging Demand

2025Demand

147

Global LNG Demand GrowthMtpa

384

Ideal for FSRUs

Source: NextDecade interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data

The global over-supply is expected to last until [2021-2023]. This is expected to foster low LNG prices and bring new entrants to the LNG market seeking a cleaner burning fuel than conventional petroleum

25% of LNG demand growth through 2025 is expected to come from countries which currently do not import LNG today

Upside emerging demand represents the maximum potential demand for LNG, assuming near complete power conversion (coal- and oil-fired plants to gas-fired) and mitigated credit risks.

FSRUs are expected to bring LNG to new markets more quickly and efficiently

44

Are conventional demand forecasts understated?

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Ideally Placed to Capitalize on FSRU Growth

9

ExistingUnder Construction

Proposed

Source: Wood Mackenzie, company management

Floating, Storage, and Regasification Units (FSRUs) present a valuable opportunity for NextDecade to access currently underserved or nonexistent LNG markets. Management’s experience with FSRUs is not replicated in other competing projects.

FSRU Offers Several Advantages:

Lower capital requirements

Shorter lead times

Less risk to developers

Easier market entry for new participants and non-traditional customers

NextDecade’s Management Poised To Capture FSRU Growth:

• FSRUs are expected to be a major component of demand growth. In 2015, three new countries began importing LNG utilizing FSRUs: Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan, with an additional projects expected in near future (Russia, Colombia, Uruguay, Dominican Republic, Malta, Bangladesh, 2nd Abu Dhabi, 2nd Pakistan)

• Management has been involved with over twelve FSRU projects on four continents, and intends to use their expertise to create demand through its marketing arm, NextDecade Global Solution (NDGS)

• NDGS is the consulting arm of NextDecade, advising clients on all facets of its LNG needs, including FSRU procurement and development

NextDecade’s involvement in FSRU

development, along with credit

support from its sovereign partner,

represents a major opportunity to

influence demand in ways which our

competitors cannot.

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US LNG Will Continue to Benefit from Cheap Gas

10

0

100

200

300

400

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Domestic Demand Proved Reserves

U.S. Natural Gas Reserves and DemandTcf

Source: EIA

1. The US can compete favorably with any other natural gas supply source worldwide

Vast quantities of natural gas have been proven as reserves in the US

US independent shale manufacturers have created extraordinary value improvements and efficiencies

Shale oil production is increasingly important to North American natural gas production and pricing

No longer “E&P” but rather “manufacturing” or “mining”

2. There will, however, be increasing pressure domestically for US E&P producers to access global markets. $0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

0 100 200 300 400

Commercial Reserves Remaining (tcf)

U.S. Lower 48 Henry Hub Break-Evens $/mmbtu

Source: Wood Mackenzie

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Gulf Coast Exports Benefit From Key Production Trends

11

Source: Ponderosa Energy

The South Texas gas market is poised to benefit from several distinct trends. Many reserve basins proximate to NextDecade have drilled economically even under current oil prices, and the emergence of the Marcellus and Utica plays increasingly pushes gas flows southward.

• Remarkable production from the Marcellus and Utica shale

gas plays have not only satisfied northeastern demand but

has also reversed the typical south-to-north gas flow

• Production from key Texas basins, namely Permian and

Eagle Ford, is expected to exceed production levels in the

Northeast region, creating more gas supply than available

demand

• Westward flow towards California continues to combat

weakening demand and limited storage capacity, while

southern flows to Mexico are highly seasonal and likely to

encounter greater domestic production

• As gas producers are unable to flare excess gas, they are

likely to find stable customers, like NextDecade, more

attractive than other more seasonal or volatile options

• Thus, NextDecade’s Rio Bravo pipeline, projected to have

eight interconnects with a combined 6.7 Bcf/d of capacity, is

expected to have excellent supply flexibility and price

competitiveness0

20

40

60

80

100

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Haynesville Anadarko Permian

Eagle Ford Northeast Rest Of USCAGR (%)

2.3%

1.7%

5.1%

4.3%

3.2%

-2.4%

Dry Natural Gas Production By Key BasinBcf/day

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Eagle Ford and Permian Gas Production

12

Eagle Ford Gas Production BCF/d

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

$80 WTI

$50 WTI

$30 WTI

Natural Decline

Sources: Ponderosa Energy, Apache Corporation

Permian Gas Production BCF/d

• Apache recently confirmed the discovery of a significant new resource play, the “Alpine High,” in the southern portion of the Delaware Basin (Reeves County, Texas) with 75 Tcf of rich gas in place

• The September 7 announcement confirms that $2.50 gas and $40 oil supports 30%+ IRR (including infrastructure to access to the market)

• Even at moderate oil prices, production from these two basins is projected to rise dramatically

• In the Permian, an increase in WTI to $70 per barrel is forecasted to drive an additional 2.8 Bcf/d of supply

• Furthermore, even with WTI at $30 per barrel, Eagle Ford production would only experience modest declines

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Source: Wood MackenzieKey Assumptions: Henry Hub = $3 / MMBtu, unlevered after-tax returns of 12%“SE Asia” refers to 28 mtpa in Papua New Guinea, Phillippines, and Indonesia

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

$20

GulfCoast

SE Asia E Africa WCanada

NWAustralia

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

$20

SE Asia GulfCoast

E Africa WCanada

NWAustralia

LNG DES Price – N. Asia$/MMBTU

LNG DES Price – Europe$/MMBTU

U.S. LNG has emerged as a new source of low-cost supply by bringing new technologies to market and lowering capital requirements, breaking industry orthodoxy of oil-linked contracts, and utilizing its well-established regulatory process. Shown below, U.S. Gulf Coast LNG is among the most competitively priced in the world.

U.S. LNG Enjoys Significant Cost Advantages

13

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$/MMBTU

Assumptions: Key Takeaways:

• Brent-linked sensitivity range between 12-14%

• Gas pricing based on 115% of Henry Hub plus $3.00 tolling fee, shipping, and regasification costs

• Recent oil price collapse has temporarily reduced the attractiveness of Henry Hub pricing, but structural advantages remain

• Henry Hub plus a fixed component is expected to be less volatile than oil-linked contracts, making gas-linked pricing more attractive to buyers

The Economics:Henry Hub- and Brent-Linked FOB Price Comparison

14

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Rio Grande LNG Project Summary

15

NextDecade is an energy development company, working to design, build, and operate LNG facilities in North America. The Company is currently focused on developing its low-risk, low-cost Rio Grande LNG terminal and associated Rio Bravo pipeline.

Project Overview

• 984-acre site located in the Port of Brownsville,

Texas

• 30 mtpa (6 trains x 5.0 mtpa each)

• 4.5 BCF/d from key Texas hub via planned Rio

Bravo pipeline

• FERC EIS expected 1Q 2017

• Commercial operations in 2021

Competitive Advantages

• Superior team with global relationships

• Optimal site

• Competitive costs

• Minimal technology risk

• Exceptional technical and commercial partners

• Attractive feedgas

• Flexible offtake models (toll, FOB, and DES)

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Company Commercial Highlights

16

Significant

Commercial

Progress

Confirms Market

Position and

Viability

● NextDecade has engaged a variety of counterparties to begin offtake negotiations for the Project’s LNG, and has signed heads of agreements (HOAs) for 30 mtpa

● Additionally, the Company is in discussions with additional customers wishing to proceed directly to binding sale and purchase agreement (SPA) negotiations

● The Company has signed a Strategic Alliance Agreement with an European Utility Company (a gas transmission operator) to facilitate investment into NextDecade as well as offtake marketing arrangements and support through development and operations phases

● NextDecade has also formed a close partnership with a Middle Eastern Sovereign, who is poised to become an importer in the face of declining reserves and heightened domestic demand; the entity has negotiated a proprietary memorandum of understanding to jointly market NextDecade’s LNG exclusively (execution pending)

Artist rendering of Rio Grande KNG at full build-out Geotechnical borings at the site to support FERC filing

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17

Ideal Location for Gas Supply and Shipping

Port Isabel

Brownsville

South Padre Island

Unlike many other projects, Rio Grande LNG will be able to capture associated gas from Eagle Ford and Permian production. This gas cannot be flared, and as a result is likely to reach markets economically.

The project is located six miles inland within the Brownsville Ship Channel (BSC), presenting minimal ship congestion, 42-foot depths with permits to dredge up to 52 feet, and no endangered or sensitive flora and fauna.

The project is expected to benefit from favorable workforce dynamics, including low-cost labor, due to above-average unemployment rates and lower levels of unionization.

The land surrounding the proposed pipeline is largely rural, sparsely populated, with landowners familiar with the pipeline process.

Permian

Eagle Ford

Barnett

Gulf Coast

Haynesville

Anadarko Fayetteville

Rio Grande LNG is ideally located in a region that has yet to materially benefit from the oil and gas economy. The terminal’s location offers several distinct advantages.

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Competitive Advantages

18

Among the approximately 300 million tons of LNG capacity either under construction or in the FERC filing process, NextDecade expects to retain several advantages over surrounding projects.

• Minimal Project Congestion. There are no other large-scale facilities located in the Port of Brownsville, and only two other projects on the central Texas coast (Freeport, Corpus Christi)

• Competitor’s Limited Access to Supply. Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana play host to approximately twelve projects, all of which must compete for gas supply and pipeline supply

• Liquid, Discounted Supply Hub. NextDecade enjoys closer proximity to key reserve basins and access to an entirely separate pipeline network gas hub (Agua Dulce as opposed to Henry Hub) than other projects, which is projected to become increasingly liquid (see “Gas Supply” section)

• Vessel Restrictions. Many Louisiana projects also face vessel restrictions and other channel capacity constraints

• More Favorable Entry Market Dynamics. NextDecade expects to be in the “second wave” (post-2020) of US LNG exports which stand to benefit from a more competitive project execution environment, potentially easing construction costs

9

5335

74

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Operational UnderConstruction

Approved, NotUnder

Construction

ApplicationPending

Pre-Filing

US Liquefaction Capacity (mtpa)

*Source: Internal company research; project websites

NextDecade

Magnolia

Sabine Pass

Cove PointCorpus Christi

Cameron Freeport

Pacific Northwest

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000Total Cost Per Ton (North America)*

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19

THANK YOU

Experienced team

Extensive commercial relationships

Strategic partners

Expertise along the value chain

Proven technology

Significant de-risking accomplished

Favorable site

Key development milestones completed

Strong regional political support