changes - prologis · dunstheimer, deputy ceo, ece projektmanagement; alan colquhoun, head of cee,...

ChangesCEEQA report

DigitalrevolutionWith e-commerce taking hold in cee and the retail market increas-ingly adopting a customer-centered model, ceeQa experts discuss the possi-bilities and risks for investors and developers in all areas of real estate

M o d e r n s h o p p i n gE-CommErCE – opportunity or thrEAt? } p.4

L i f e t i M e c o M M i t M e n tpAul GhEysEns rECEivEs lifEtimE AChiEvEmEnt AwArd } p.10

W i n d s o f c h a n g eAmAzon is influEnCinG All ArEAs of thE rEAl EstAtE mArkEt } p.8

2 a p r i l 2 0 1 4 • W B J O B S E r V E r

c e e q a r e p o r ti n t r o d u C t i o n }

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After half a decade of cautious planning and painstaking calculation, Europe finally breathes a sigh of relief. The worst is behind us and most of Europe is finally ready to turn over a new leaf and start a chapter filled with growth and opportunity.

Although Spain is slowly getting out of the doghouse, the other southern states still seem too uncertain to invest in. So investors’ eyes turn even more towards Central and Eastern Eu-

New Europe perspectiveWith new hope coming from the south and turbulence brewing in the east, the CEE and SEE markets are increasingly on investors’ radars

rope in search of growth opportunities and stable returns.Poland and the Czech Republic have long been the focal

point for investors looking at CEE. Their location makes them ideal for logistics hubs. Poland is also the only European country that made it through the crisis without seeing nega-tive growth, further instilling a sense of safety in risk-averse institutional investors.

back on the menuSouthern Romania has also made a comeback, seeing 3.5

percent growth in 2013. The forecasts for 2014 are also quite optimistic, with an increasing number of real estate investors turning their gaze to the 20-million nation.

However, the sky isn’t all blue. Clouds gathering over Ukraine make some investors uneasy about the future of the market. Others see the developing situation as an opportunity in the long run. Once Ukraine moves closer to Europe, which seems all but inevitable, the western part of the country may open a world of possibilities to money managers looking to make higher-than-average returns.

in the spotlightThe region is definitely on the radar, not only for European

investors, but also for their counterparts from Asia and Amer-ica. All major international real estate fairs have conferences and events devoted to the CEE and SEE markets. The most recent CEEQA@Mipim event featured a two-hour Insight Summit discussion and a cocktail party, which attracted some 300 industry professionals and CEOs.

Experts taking part in the Insight Summit discussion fo-cused on the impact the currently unfolding digital revolution may have on the real estate market in the CEE and SEE region. They discussed the changing landscape across all asset classes, from traditional retail losing ground to e-commerce and what it may entail for the logistics and distribution segment, to the office market and the new trends set by tech firms.

change is inevitableOne thing is certain: the world will not be the same in

10 years’ time. As Jeff Bezos put it, “I very frequently get the question ‘Jeff, what’s going to change in the next ten years?’ I almost never get the question ‘what’s not going to change in

3W B J O B S E R V E R • a p R i l 2 0 1 4

the next ten years? I submit to you that the second question is actually the more important of the two.”

According to Amazon’s founder it’s necessary to identify the things that will stay the same and build your strategy around them. “It’s impossible to imagine a future ten years from now when a customer comes up to me and says ‘Jeff, I love Amazon but I just wish the prices were a little higher,’ or ‘I love Amazon, but I wish deliveries were a little bit slower,’” Bezos said. Once you realize that, the digital revolution that seems to be turning the real estate business upside down stops being a threat and becomes an opportunity. u

The CEEQA@Mipim conference attracted over 300 real estate professionals

Digital Revolution panel “The Money Picture” included (L-R): Michael Kroeger, head of international finance at Helaba; Thierry Leleu, head of funds management at Valad Europe; James Brown, head of EMEA research & consulting at JLL; Eduard Zehetner, CEO of Immofinanz Group; Mike Rodda, head of EMEA cross border retail investment at Cushman & Wakefield; Joseph Ghazal, managing director/head of capital deployment for Europe at Prologis

Nicklas Lindberg, president of Skanska Commercial Develop-ment Europe (second from the left) hands the RealGreen Investor of the Year award to Peter Heckelsmüller, senior investment manager at Deka Immobilien (first from the right), accom-panied by the awards ceremony’s hosts: Monika Richardson and Richard Hallward (read more on p. 16)

The awards ceremony featured live entertainment

The cocktail reception after the two-hour confer-ence brought together the crème de la crème of the industry


c e e q a r e p o r td i G i t A l r E v o l u t i o n }

Digital Revolution panel “The Tenant Picture” at MIPIM (L-R): Raimund Paetzmann, director, European CS/OPS Real Estate, Amazon EU; Hadley Dean, managing partner, Eastern Europe, Colliers International; Gerhard Dunstheimer, deputy CEO, ECE Projektmanagement; Alan Colquhoun, head of CEE, DTZ; Otis Spencer, president, Peakside Polonia Management; Robert Dobrzycki, managing partner, Europe, Panattoni Europe


H ow will retail adapt to the changing environment? Will the warehouse mar-ket appropriate a portion of retail, with stores go-

ing online and moving their merchandise to distribution centers? Will the office market take the digital revolution in stride or will it dwindle? These are some of the issues experts at MIPIM discussed, with particular focus on the CEE region.

hurricane e-commerceRetailers have been under siege from

e-commerce for quite some time now, though some say the real shift has yet to take shape. “The general belief is we’re go-ing to recognize the change in traditional retailing once same-day deliveries hap-pen,” said Colliers’ Hadley Dean.

Over the years, traditional brick-and-mortar retailers have developed several techniques of dealing with the digital threat: limiting the retail space they operate on, opening their own online stores or making their physical space more appealing by adding entertainment and leisure features. Any way is good as long as it keeps you from getting blown away by the ever-expanding e-commerce hurricane.

However, experts posit that it need not be one or the other, and that both e-commerce and traditional retail can co-exist peacefully, maybe even create some synergies. “We have to create a new environment where we integrate online and offline features and combine the advantages of both worlds,” said Eduard Zehetner, CEO of Immofinanz Group.

James Brown, JLL’s head of EMEA Research & Consulting agreed saying that shopping is by no means only about purchasing products and that it is increas-ingly about the experience. Experience

Modern shoppingThis year’s insight Summit focused on whether and how the fast-approaching digital revolution, particularly e-commerce, will shake the foundations of real estate



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that only physical interaction can provide. “I’m a firm believer in physical space. I think there is very much a future for the physical space and I think it will thrive,” Brown said, but warned that “in order for them to thrive they need to change.”

live and learnNo one disputes the fact that change

is inevitable. “The only thing that won’t change in the next 10 years is that my

tenants will always say that my rent is too expensive. I will always tell my bankers that their margin is too expensive,” Thi-erry Leleu, head of funds management, Valad Europe, said jokingly.

As with any evolution, those that can adapt will survive. The key here is speed.

“Our philosophy about the shopping mall is that it’s a platform and it has to be flexible. We have to adapt faster than we did in the past,” said Gerhard L. Dunst-

heimer, deputy CEO of ECE Projekt-management. To show the pace in which retail space has been changing, he added that 10 years ago the percentage of gas-tronomy in shopping malls was around 2 percent, and now it’s at 10 percent.

Since it is difficult to foresee where future will take us, ECE has adopted a strategy of experimentation. “We’ve transformed a couple of our shopping malls into laboratories and we’re doing trial and error,” Dunstheimer said.

Zombie in the middle?With retail increasingly polarizing

into dominant, leisure-oriented destina-tion centers and small, food and services focused convenience centers, the ones that are under threat are the ones in the middle. “They are under competition from dominant centers, and they are not close enough to be convenience centers,” explained Leleu.

“It’s inevitable that we’ll see obsoles-cence in the next 5-10 years,” said Brown. With convenience at one end and leisure at the other, “it will be up to those centers to reposition or to accept the conse-quences of the new world of retail,” he added.

Yet not everyone agrees that this asset class is facing doom and oblivion. “There are very few zombie centers, it’s pretty rare to see something completely dead,” said Michael Rodda, head of EMEA Cross Border Retail Investment at Cush-man & Wakefield.

“wE’rE goiNg to rECogNizE thE ChaNgE iN traDitioNal rEtailiNg oNCE saME-Day DElivEriEs happEN.”hadley dean, managing partner, Eastern Europe, Colliers international


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According to Rodda, there is still hope for the non-dominant centers stuck in the retail limbo. “A center which is less interesting in terms of customer flow could actually become a center for ‘click-and-collect’ for example. Online sales could drive footfall into those centers that we consider dying, which may end up as destination for warehousing and storage,” he explained.

digital remasteringFor some, the offline showroom may

be a necessary cost of doing business. “I spoke to a retailer who is renewing a lease on a loss-making store because his view is that without the physical pres-ence, in the physical catchment he will not be able to serve his virtual catch-ment. He needs the online and offline to work in tandem in order to deliver the return he wants in the geographical region,” said Brown.

Another way of fending off the e-com-merce threat could be to use the digital revolution to your advantage “There’s a new product being developed in Poland: small wireless transmitters, so as you walk around the shop it sends news of special offers onto your smartphone,” said Colquhoun refering to the new Estimote smart-tagging system, adding that, “retailers or even landlords could consider installing them in their malls.”

cold calculationFor better or for worse, the digital

revolution will definitely come at a price. “I think the costs will inevitably go up for retailers because of all this new technolo-gy, and the question is who’s going to pay for this: the landlords or the retailers?” said Colquhoun.

What may become crucial in the future is how to estimate rental costs in a world dominated by online shopping.

“There are several different ideas going around about measuring footfall rather than revenue at stores. And work-ing out a formula that will influence the rental value of the store relevant to the footfall outside the store. It’s definitely not the ‘be-all-and-end-all’ answer but I think it’s a step in the right direction,” said Rodda, adding that “this is some-thing the industry will have to work out over the next medium term.” u



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R etail is not the only segment that will feel the impact of digital revolution. Office and particularly logistics, will too

have to follow the trend.Raimund Paetzmann, director of real

estate in the EMEA region at Amazon, said that the biggest shift e-retail has brought about is the change in the supply chain. Instead of large quantities stored in distribution centers, deliveries now go from the producer directly to the fulfillment center. The fulfillment center has actually become the shop, accessible via the internet.

The important part is that the fulfill-ment center is always built close to the

customer. “That’s a huge shift. The old logistics buildings from the past were always close to a highway junction, there was not much requirement for people and it wasn’t close to the customer, it was rather far away from the customer,” Paetzmann said.

power shiftE-commerce is enabling permanent

feedback from the customer, which helps retailers understand what customers really want. “But what I’m still missing is the customer focus in real estate,” said Paetzmann.

Hadley Dean, managing partner at Colliers International, was even more

winds of changeE-commerce and the

proliferation of mobile devices in everyday life

will bring changes to all segments of real estate,

but not necessarily for the worse


straightforward about the need for the market to be more customer-oriented than it already is, not only in the logistics sector, but also in other segments. “It’s time for the real estate sector to shut up and listen to the customer,” he said.

office 2.0Another question real estate experts

are trying to answer is whether the digital revolution, with all the modern tools for videoconferencing, high-speed optical fiber internet and teleworking, will wreak havoc on the traditional office segment. Industry professionals don’t seem to be too concerned, though, as they believe office is much more than just workspace, especially for Generation Y, currently the most numerous group in the labor force.

“The office provides a work environ-ment. Even though people can telecom-mute they still want to come into the of-fice for the social interaction. They want to meet, share ideas,” said Otis Spencer, president of the board at Peakside Polo-nia Management.

Sharing ideas seems to be what Gen Y is all about, and for them physical prox-imity is essential.

“In an office it’s all about creativity. So it’s not how creative you are at home by yourself. If you actually want to bounce ideas, which is what Millenials like to do, they actually want to do it in teams, they want to collaborate. That’s why offices will never fade,” said Colliers’ Hadley Dean.

birds of a feather...The need for interaction is particularly

strong for the IT business, currently the most rapidly growing group of office space occupiers.

Alan Colquhoun, head of CEE at DTZ talked about a district in London, the so called “Silicon Roundabout” near Old Street, which has seen a spectacular increase in office demand in recent years. A lot of tech firms started to locate there and once a certain critical mass had been reached, all other software and hi-tech companies wanted to be there too.

“I think that contrary to what all the gloom mongers are assuming that there will be less office space, I think it’s going to be the other way around,” Colquhoun concluded. u

“what i’M still MissiNg is thE CustoMEr foCus iN rEal EstatE.” raimund paetzmann, director of real estate, EMEa, amazon


c e e q a r e p o r tl i f E t i m E A C h i E v E m E n t }

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lifetime commitmentCould you tell us about the beginning of Ghelamco’s presence in the CEE real estate market?Paul Gheysens: In 1985 I established Ghelamco as a development and general contracting company in Belgium. We began to import materials for our projects from many countries, including Poland. That’s when I had an opportunity to visit Warsaw.

I remember that when I first went there, I was astonished by the potential the city had for new real estate invest-ments. So after a few more visits I de-cided that Poland would be the first CEE country Ghelamco would enter.

The year was 1991 and there were not many developers active in the market. In fact, the market itself barely existed, so I often heard it was too risky to do business in Poland. Well, I took the risk and now, after over 23 years, I must say that it was one of the best decisions I’ve ever made.

How has the market changed since then?What happened in this market is a

fascinating story of vision, hard work and engagement. I cannot recall any

other market that started from scratch to become a regional leader and one of the most rapidly expanding markets in all of Europe in only two decades.

Of course, the years of shaping the market were not that easy. Everyone, from developers to consultants, general contractors and tenants made efforts to make it transparent, modern, more de-veloped and ethical. It always makes me proud that Ghelamco had the opportu-nity to take part in this unique process.

What projects is Ghelamco involved in now in the region?

In Poland we are focused on our War-saw Spire project, which is also the biggest office complex currently being construct-ed in Europe. It consists of three buildings and, when complete, it will provide a total of 100,000 sqm of office space.

Our other office project in Poland is the 21,000 sqm Wołoska 24 in Warsaw’s Mokotów. We are also starting four retail projects in Poland: three convenience centers of 7,000 sqm to 12,000 sqm locat-ed in Łomianki, Piaseczno and Wilanów, and a mixed-use project in the center of

Warsaw on ul. Sienna, of which about 14,000 sqm will be dedicated to retail.

We also have many other office and some residential projects in the pipeline. We plan to develop another 300,000 sqm within the next four to five years, not only in Warsaw but also in regional cities.

We are also very active in Russia, where over the last 12 months we devel-oped 140,000 sqm of warehouse space and have another 240,000 sqm under de-velopment – all in the Dmitrov Logistics Park near Moscow.

In Ukraine we have successfully developed Kopylov Logistics Park but, due to the unstable economic and politi-cal situation, we had to place some other projects on hold. But I hope and believe that soon Ukraine will again benefit from many good projects as this country has great potential.

How do you think the market will de-velop over the next few years?

One significant change is already hap-pening and it refers to sustainable devel-opment. Back in 2010, when we obtained our first green certificate for an office

paul Gheysens is the founder of Ghelamco and this year’s recipient of CEEQa lifetime achievement award


We deliver world-class advice to owners and occupiers of real estate

Please contact our Warsaw office: +48 22 820 20 20www.cushmanwakefield.pl

building in Poland (Trinity Park III), we were pioneers of this approach. Now, after only four years, green certificates are a market standard and almost every new building is BREEAM or LEED certified.

I would like to see the office market establish a closer relationship between the buildings, the city and its inhabitants. It is obvious that developers have a huge impact on the shape of the cities, but they can also influence the quality of life.

These improvements do not require huge amounts of resources. Sometimes just a few nice benches, some grass and trees can create a peaceful area within a business district. This is also something that goes in line with tenant expectations.

How does it feel to be recognized with the CEEQA Lifetime Achievement Award?

Of course it is a great honor and joy, but I would like to stress that I consider this award as one given to all the people who are responsible for Ghelamco’s suc-cess. It is easy to have a vision, but it is impossible to turn it into a reality without a dedicated and experienced team that you spend years getting to know and trust, like the teams we have had in War-saw, Moscow and Kiev. u

“i oftEN hEarD it was too risky to Do busiNEss iN polaND ... i Must say that it was oNE of thE bEst DECisioNs i’vE EvEr MaDE.”


c e e q a r e p o r tE n t E r t A i n m E n t }

C EEQA is not only a top-notch business event, it is also renowned for the high-class

entertainment it provides. “It’s the only real estate event that gets the entertainment right along with the awards,” said Hadley Dean, managing partner for Eastern Europe at Colliers International.

Entertainment highlightsa number of world-

class stars have performed at the CEEQa Gala over

the years

This year’s star performer – Kim Wilde

Bananarama at CEEQA Gala in 2013


The live shows accompany-ing the event include a mixture of contemporary talents, both Polish and international, as well as some blasts from the past, including 1970s disco legend Boney M, who gave a stunning performance in 2007, Sister Sledge, who electrified the audience in 2008, and girl group Bananarama, who gave an exhilarating show in 2009 and then again in 2013. Gloria Gaynor, often called “The Queen of Disco,” stole the spotlight in 2012 with some of her most memorable songs, including “I will survive.”

Apart from Bananarama, last year’s entertainment highlights also included leading Polish diva Edyta Górniak and dance-duo Wet Fingers. Górniak first came into the limelight in 1994 as Poland’s first Eurovision contestant, where she claimed a very creditable second place with her song “To nie ja” (English version: “Once in a Lifetime”). She has released six studio albums and numerous singles.

Wilde thingThe entertainment at this

year’s CEEQA Gala will be spearheaded by legendary enter-tainer Kim Wilde with a special show direct from the “Rock Meets Classics” European tour, as well as an acoustic set with her touring band.

Kim stormed into the charts in the eighties with a string of global hits including “Kids In America,” “You Came,” “Cambodia” and “You Keep Me Hanging On” and has continued to record and perform new ma-terial as well as her well-known classics. The live show promises to top all previous concerts at the CEEQA Gala. u


c e e q a r e p o r tw i n n E r s A n d n o m i n E E s }

GRAND AWARDSlifetime achievement aWard Winnerbrian patterson, managing partner at aiG/lincoln

industry professional of the yearpaweł dębowski, partner and head of CEE real estate at Dentons

building of the year ceele palais, Warsaw

building of the year seeThe palas iasi, iasi, romania

green leadership aWardSkanska Commercial Development Europe

DECADE AWARDSbuilding of the decaderondo 1, Warsaw

company of the decadeJones lang la Salle

BUILDING AWARDSoffice development of the yearle palais, Warsaw

Apart from announcing this year’s RealGreen Awards win-ners, the shortlist for CEEQA 2014 Awards was also present-

ed at CEEQA@MIPIM event. The CEEQA awards will be given out

in 22 categories, including real estate projects (office, retail and hotel/leisure and residential), companies (developers, investors, lenders, construction firms, property managers and advisories), agents and industry professionals.

Sustainability seems to be a must for office schemes these days, as almost all the projects shortlisted for this year’s award have been BREEAM or LEED certified, many of which have LEED Platinum and

BREEAM Excellent ratings. The green trend is increasingly present also in the retail segment.

The winners in each of the categories will be selected by the CEEQA Jury, com-posed of representatives of top advisories and industry operators. The guests at the Gala will have a chance to vote on the Company of the Year from among the category winners.

Another highlight of the night will be the Lifetime Achievement Award, once again sponsored by the Financial Times. At the 2013 CEEQA Gala, the honor went to Brian Patterson, managing partner of AIG/Lincoln. This year, Ghelamco’s founder Paul Gheysens will be distin-

guished with the standout prize.

special achievementsRefurbished “palaces” stole the spot-

light at last year’s Gala. Warimpex’s Le Pal-ais office building in Warsaw snatched the Building of the Year CEE and the Office Development of the Year awards, while The Palas Iasi in Romania was named the Building of the Year in the SEE region as well as the Retail Development of the Year.

Last year the Gala guests also gave out two special 10-year anniversary awards. Hochtief Development’s Rondo 1 snatched the prize of the Building of the Decade 2003-2013, while JLL was distin-guished as the Company of the Decade.

CEEQa 2014 industry awardsas many as 22 statuettes will be awarded this year to companies, projects and professionals

CEEQa 2013 winners


skanska.com/property Skanska CD Properties

Malta House, Poznań, Poland Generation Park, Warsaw, Poland

Green Horizon, Łódź, Poland Corso Court, Prague, Czech Republic

Dominikański, Wrocław, Poland Nordic Light, Budapest, Hungary

Green Court Bucharest, Romania Kapelanka 42, Kraków, Poland

Riverview, Prague, Czech Republic Silesia Business Park, Katowice, Poland

An investmentyou can count on.Literally.

retail development of the yearThe palas iasi, iasi romania

hotel, leisure and retail development of the yearKempinski Hotel Cathedral Square, Vilnius, lithuania

COMPANY AWARDSdeveloper of the yearSkanska Commercial Development Europe

industrial developer of the yearpanattoni Europe

investor of the yearUnion investment real Estate

lender of the yearDeutsche pfandbriefbank

legal and financial consulting company of the yearDentons

development services company of the year arcadis EC Harris

construction company of the year Skanska Sa

property management company of the yearColliers international

AGENT AWARDSagent of the year (office agency)Jones lang laSalle

agent of the year (retail, leisure & residential agency) Cushman & Wakefield

agent of the year (industrial & logistics agency) Colliers international

agent of the year (capital markets) Jones lang laSalle

REALGREEN AWARDSrealgreen building of the yearGreen Towers Wrocław – phase a, Wrocław, poland

realgreen developer of the yearSkanska Commercial Development

realgreen investor of the year Union investment real Estate

realgreen services provider of the yeararcadis EC Harris

CEEQa 2013 winners - cont.


c e e q a r e p o r tw i n n E r s A n d n o m i n E E s }

CEEQa 2014: realgreen winnersOnce again, Skanska was in the spotlight at the CEEQa realGreen awards ceremony at MipiM

CEEQA seeks to champion the business case for green building in-vestment through research, consultation and business-leader events such as the RealGreen Awards. Every year since 2008, the most

sustainable developments and companies have been awarded statuettes at a ceremony held at MIPIM in Cannes, France.

On March 11, 2014 another batch of statuettes was picked up by real estate firms. This year, just like the year previously, it was Skanska that took center stage, claiming two out of four prizes on offer that evening. Skanska’s office project Malta House, located in the western city of Poznań, received the award for the RealGreen Building of the Year, while the company itself was named the RealGreen Developer of the Year.

Skanska also sponsored the RealGreen Investor of the Year 2014 award, which went to Deka Immobilien. Meanwhile, Arup was distinguished as the RealGreen Service Provider of the Year 2014. u

RealGreen Building of the Year 2014malta housepoznań, polandgla: 15,800 sqm certification: lEED platinumdeveloper: Skanska Commercial Development Europe

RealGreen Developer of the Year 2014skanska commercial development europe

RealGreen Investor of the Year 2014deka immobilien

RealGreen Services Provider of the Year 2014arup

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